[John Maynard Keynes]

China's one china policy and Taiwan's pro-independence policy look set to put both China and Taiwan into serious political tension. A possibility of a war between Taiwan and China seems very unreal to me but let's just assume a war do really break out in the straits, there will be ripple effects affecting not just the North Asia but the whole world as well.

Given that US is Taiwan's closest ally and the former pledged to support the latter in times of war, this will cause a war in the straits to be a long drawn one gievn china's resolution for a one china policy.

Economically, a war beyween china and Taiwan blocks the trade route of Japan, causing Japan's exports to outside world to slow down. At the same time, raw materials such as oil to resource-scarce Japan will also be affected. This will derail the recent recovery of the world's second largest economy. A long drawn war wil also hurt consumer sentiment in China, one of the main factors for the economic recovery for Japan and Asia. Thus, the well being of the Chinese economy has a direct effect on export-driven Asia, given China's huge appetitie for Asian goods and services. A fall in investments in china due to political instability is tantamount to a partial, if not a full shutdown of the world's "factory". When this happens, it will put the world into a global inflation, and worse come to worse a recession.

When resource scarce Japan is starve of resources that is essential to her survival, they will take any action to resolve their crisis including going to war. Neighbouring countries such as china and south korea are wary of Japan ever since world war II will be faced with great pressure to arm themselves in order to counter the threat of a stronger Japan. India, being a nuclear country, might also arm themselves due to their political tension with china. Pakistan, another nuclear country might be pressured to arm themselves too and so on. This domino effect will therefore spark off an arms race in Asia, making Asia very instable as well as a dangerous place to live or do business in. To add oil to fire, North korea might make use of its nuclear capabilities to demand for more aid. Thus, bringing even more political instability to the region as well as the world.

In conclusion, Taiwan definitely has to gain by reuniting with china. By doing so, they can also avert a disaster.

[fastspawn]

The balance of the article is tilted. I do feel that Taiwan is an integral part of China, but there are definately cons to reunification.

Your post did not address them.

[Proctor]

You seem to be missing something. Washington has said it will defend Taiwan by "any means necessary." In diplomatic speak, this means nuclear weapons. This was reiterated as recently as 2003.

So to say "making Asia very instable as well as a dangerous place to live or do business in" is more than a little understatement. This would be the beginning of World War III. So it is not advantageous to China to invade Taiwan under any circumstances. It won't happen.
I think "this will cause a war in the straits to be a long drawn one" is the direct opposite. This war would last just hours, resulting in decimation of all involved.

[Comrade Ogilvy]

It should also be noted that China cannot win a war with Taiwan, except with nuclear weapons. While China can do serious damage to Taiwan, Taiwan has so much firepower available that the war would end in the Straights--unless China deploys nuclear weapons. Additionally, Dick Cheney recently found it necessary to "remind" Hu Jintao that the Taiwan Relations Act "obliges" the US to defend Taiwan by "any means necessary." We already have two carrier groups in the East Pacific, many land based aircraft in Japan and South Korea, and over 100,000 ground forces in those two countries. Given the hawkish stance of the current Administration (the TRA actually only obligates the US to sell weapons to Taiwan), I think a Chinese attack would be met by serious military force, possibly including atomic weapons. While this would be very unfortunate--the US shouldn't not meddle in other nations' affairs--it is a fact.

On another note, I'm highly suspicious of anyone who names himself after the second worst economist in history (number one being Karl Marx)...

[John Maynard Keynes]

You seem to be missing something. Washington has said it will defend Taiwan by "any means necessary." In diplomatic speak, this means nuclear weapons. This was reiterated as recently as 2003.

So to say "making Asia very instable as well as a dangerous place to live or do business in" is more than a little understatement. This would be the beginning of World War III. So it is not advantageous to China to invade Taiwan under any circumstances. It won't happen.
I think "this will cause a war in the straits to be a long drawn one" is the direct opposite. This war would last just hours, resulting in decimation of all involved.

You think US will turn to using nuclear weapons as a last resort?

It should also be noted that China cannot win a war with Taiwan, except with nuclear weapons. While China can do serious damage to Taiwan, Taiwan has so much firepower available that the war would end in the Straights--unless China deploys nuclear weapons. Additionally, Dick Cheney recently found it necessary to "remind" Hu Jintao that the Taiwan Relations Act "obliges" the US to defend Taiwan by "any means necessary." We already have two carrier groups in the East Pacific, many land based aircraft in Japan and South Korea, and over 100,000 ground forces in those two countries. Given the hawkish stance of the current Administration (the TRA actually only obligates the US to sell weapons to Taiwan), I think a Chinese attack would be met by serious military force, possibly including atomic weapons. While this would be very unfortunate--the US shouldn't not meddle in other nations' affairs--it is a fact.


On another note, I'm highly suspicious of anyone who names himself after the second worst economist in history (number one being Karl Marx)...

My view is US can't win a war with china easily. Neither can china win a war with US. A war between these two countries will only result in serious consequences, given the fact that China's army is becoming more "technology intensive" these days.

Proctor's edit: Posts merged.

[Comrade Ogilvy]

My view is US can't win a war with china easily. Neither can china win a war with US. A war between these two countries will only result in serious consequences, given the fact that China's army is becoming more "technology intensive" these days.

I'm not saying that the US could easily invade and destroy China--rather, that the US could easily repulse any Chinese attack on Taiwan.

[Proctor]

Keynes, please don't double post. If there is something you want to add to a previous post, edit it in rather than posting again.

I don't think the US would use nuclear weapons as a last resort. I believe it would be the option they would first consider and probably decide upon should China decide to invade.

I say this because both China and the US would be well aware of exactly what Dao is talking about. China would not stand a chance in hell in a conventinal naval war with the US. Against Taiwan alone (no US involvement) it might be another story, I don't know. But that is a rather implausible conflict.

With the Chinese leadership knowing that they could not hope to win conventionally, they would deploy nuclear weapons. Washington knows this would be their decision, and would attempt a first strike. World War III.

That's why I am so sure war won't occur.


On a side note, Daovonnaex, I've noticed you're involving yourself in several threads here. I'm pleased to see a 'foreigner' so keenly interested in the politics of our region. Make yourself at home.

[Thin Spirits]

I don't think the US would use nuclear weapons as a last resort. I believe it would be the option they would first consider and probably decide upon should China decide to invade.

Another thing worth considering is the effect on the US public, things as they stand, the neo-conservatives in the US have been able to work up enough support to go to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. I believe that the cycle of such support for war is about to end and suspect an anti-war backlash might be on the horizon.
This would mean that in the next five, maybe ten years the US might once again turn away from the international spotlight and focus on internal problems for awhile and war would be a difficult thing to justify in China/Taiwan. Especially if nuclear weapons are a cosequence.