[spodi]

http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-big-diplomacy-shift/

Well this is interesting... China's game of go in its backyard. They have great PR too with "Asia for Asians". In my opinion we're seeing a new great game. What's your opinions?

[benpenguin]

I just read through the article, that isn't an overnight big diplomacy shift, but rather a better description of what's happening in the recent years. What I see here:
1. To US:
- Opposing and defending against your shenanigans remains our top priority, but lets agree to keep things sort of under the table. We don't want any open conflict.
- We still need your capital for the time being, and technical know-how (until we copy all of it or can innovate better than you)
- The unsaid: If you really want to mess with us, please go fuck with Russia instead. We would rather spend time on developing than fighting you.

2. To the West: "You are in decline, so we are done trying to appease you. We no longer need to pretend to care about your human right rants, because they are boring, stale, and we have better things to worry about. Don't worry, you can keep buying our cheap stuff."

China figured out the best use of their focus is to develop bilateral relations with (or dominating) the surrounding Asian countries, Russia, and the global south in general. For obvious reasons:
- They don't hate us that much.
- They have tons of untapped resources.
- They are less aligned with the West.
- They need the technologies and infrastructures that we can provide.

Interestingly, they didn't mention anything about the rivalry with Japan and to a lesser extent, India. Personally I believe the Chinese leadership want to warm up to both countries in accordance to their Pan Asian focus.
- Pro-japan articles are allowed to appear occasionally in nationalist websites, which means the authority intends to silently curb the Japan hate.
- China is annoyed with Pakistan's terrorist problem, because some of it is spilling into Xinjiang. It also seems that Pakistan isn't that interested (or able) to develop itself. At this point, their most important value is as leverage against India: 1-undermining their capability to encircle China (As US intends), and 2-to encircle India back (If needed). But economically, India is much better investment. On the other end, Modi is also warming relations up with China as with the recent visits.

A point I wanted to add: This fits pretty well with Rei's outlook and perdictions on Asia. So, well done Rei

[ThirdTerm]

The US is no longer fighting the Cold War against China mainly because China is funding the US economy at the moment and its human rights principles are sidelined by all-important economic issues, which has undermined America's leadership role in the international community. The Chinese yuan is pegged to the US dollar so that Chinese goods could be exported cheaply to the American market under a currency union between the economic giants. As a result, the US-China alliance is overshadowing the US-Japan alliance and Japan cannot really count on Washington when the disputed islands are seized by the PLA. President Xi is closely tied to the Chinese military and military figures are currently running the central and local governments in China, which gives us an overall impression that Beijing has given up on civilian control by educated Communist officials. Some analysts called it a silent military coup and it's not entirely surprising that the PLA is increasingly provocative towards its neighbours, outlining an "air-defence identification zone" over an area of the East China Sea which covers islands that are also claimed by Japan.

[Rei Murasame]

A point I wanted to add: This fits pretty well with Rei's outlook and perdictions on Asia. So, well done Rei

High five!

Seriously, I love you. The future is going to be bright.

[benpenguin]

The US is no longer fighting the Cold War against China mainly because China is funding the US economy at the moment and its human rights principles are sidelined by all-important economic issues, which has undermined America's leadership role in the international community.

That's exactly what I mean by boring human rights rant.

On the ADIZ bit, I think China is toning it down. I honestly don't know what the fuck the government was trying to do before, provoking everybody like that, which is pretty much contradictory to their own Pan Asian objective. I suppose they are just trying to maintain a sphere of influence to protect the maritime silk road? Anyway, they are no longer talking about how everybody steal our islands on the TV, so I guess calmer heads have prevailed in beijing.

Anyway Thirdterm, did you just forget to link a China bashing article from CNN?

[benpenguin]

Seriously, I love you. The future is going to be bright.

Don't mention it, you made a Pan Asian convert out of me.

[Typhoon]

A PLA strategic review mentioned in the article sums it up for me:

Western countries have lost their relative superiority on the world stage, while the emerging countries, especially the major developing countries, keep rising, causing a trend of power fragmentation, balance and multi-polarization, the report said.

The changes in policy are just a formal acknowledgement of the above as other regions and China itself equal the importance of the West and nations are generally going to pay more attention to the regions they are in all other things being equal.

However, putting an emphasis on its neighbors might not do China any good if no one wants to cooperate. The neighbors want to trade and welcome economic links but China gets very little political capital from its investments and remains hobbled by numerous disputes which don't seem to have any real chance of going away. While the trend identified above will no doubt continue, these barriers to establishing a “community of common destiny” may well prove insurmountable.

The influence of the US in the region is not going to go away either.

[benpenguin]

putting an emphasis on its neighbors might not do China any good if no one wants to cooperate.

Well, it's not as bad as it looks. Not that we are saints, but our bad rep has been a little overblown by the media, for obvious reasons. Let's do some headcounts.

South East Asia
China certainly didn't get a good rep with SE countries with our naval incursions, particularly Vietnam and Philippines. And that's probably not going to change anytime soon. While I dislike clashes with surrounding countries, I understand this is a tactical manuver to break out of the first island chain and the "Asian Pivot" containment doctrine.
China is trying to build a maritime silk road all the way through malacca strait to Africa and ME, so we cannot allow US aligned proxies to threaten the route. I don't know if this could have been achieved through non military means, but what's done is done and I guess we will just have to deal with the consequences.
In any case, don't forget it is only Philippines and Vietnam whom we pissed off, and their influence is limited. The rest of SE countries are cautious but at least more or less friendly to China.

Central Asia
However, you are forgetting SE Asia is just one part of Asia. China's influence in Central Asia is very strong - everytime there are Chinese trade conferences, we bring all the -stans to the yard. Those guys are very firm allies.

East Asia
Rivalry with Japan is a headache but at the same time it is pushing both Koreas closer to us - which is quite something.
In any case, we won't be able to completely fix relationship with Japan until they clean out US influence, and stop throwing salt on the WWII wounds. We will probably need to resolve the Diaoyu island claims or at least keep it out of both sides' control.

South Asia
India is fixing relationship with China. While Pakistan is not going away, both sides are going to leave that hornet nest alone for now. And don't forget China's strong influence with smaller states around India like Bangadelesh etc.

So, I'd say China's "Shared destiny" has enough headcount for a healthy start. The situation in SE Asia is hard to fix, but hey, since when can you be friends with everyone?

[fuser]

I don't know if this could have been achieved through non military means

More and more economical integration, certain steps have been taken in right direction in last few years but its still "wait and watch".

India is fixing relationship with China. While Pakistan is not going away, both sides are going to leave that hornet nest alone for now. And don't forget China's strong influence with smaller states around India like Bangadelesh etc.

And what about India's influence with Vietnam? I mean this is ridiculous, both these large Asian nations have sloppy relationship with their neighbors and most of blame lies with them only. Vietnam is not some US proxy but it is being pushed in US direction and for this China itself is also responsible.

There can be no Asian century while so many low level conflict exists in the region, Asia needs statesmen with cooler head.

[Political Interest]

2. To the West: "You are in decline, so we are done trying to appease you. We no longer need to pretend to care about your human right rants, because they are boring, stale, and we have better things to worry about. Don't worry, you can keep buying our cheap stuff."

As far as Europe is concerned you will not receive any problems. The days of empire are gone and it is no longer really possible to rule whole parts of Asia from the other side of the Eurasian super continent. Europe has no interest entering a conflict or political dispute with China.

America, Australia and New Zealand might be slightly different but the latter two are on good terms with Beijing.

Our main worry about China is that it will try to dominate us. However this is quite paradoxical because the West invests heavily in China and uses a lot of Chinese labour to produce consumer and capital goods.

There is nothing to fear from China. The development of this country cannot be stopped. We should not invest in China and then cry when we feel it is getting too strong.

East Asia
Rivalry with Japan is a headache but at the same time it is pushing both Koreas closer to us - which is quite something.
In any case, we won't be able to completely fix relationship with Japan until they clean out US influence, and stop throwing salt on the WWII wounds. We will probably need to resolve the Diaoyu island claims or at least keep it out of both sides' control.

What I do not understand is why China does not try and court Japan and create a Sino-Japanese alliance.

[benpenguin]

And what about India's influence with Vietnam? I mean this is ridiculous, both these large Asian nations have sloppy relationship with their neighbors and most of blame lies with them only. Vietnam is not some US proxy but it is being pushed in US direction and for this China itself is also responsible.
There can be no Asian century while so many low level conflict exists in the region, Asia needs statesmen with cooler head.

Well, Beijing's decision making has been quite restrained for the past decade imo. I honestly don't know where the shit with vietnam came from...geopolitically it made completely no sense. I mean yes they more or less oppose China given the sino-vietnam war, but the relationship is not unfixable. And they certainly wouldn't harass our sea lanes on US orders, but now they will.

Our main worry about China is that it will try to dominate us. However this is quite paradoxical because the West invests heavily in China and uses a lot of Chinese labour to produce consumer and capital goods.

There is basically no chance that we will dominate Europe. We are of a different skin colour, language and cultural heritage, and we are thousands and thousands of miles away. China cannot truly win over European minds like US did, nor can we dominate by force because of the distance. The worst that can happen is that we will gain better influence in you foreign policy (So you guys won't vote everything the US's way in UN assembly), but domination has literally no chance of worry. The very reason that Europeans might even have this fear is because of xenophobia in the first place - further demonstrating my point.

What I do not understand is why China does not try and court Japan and create a Sino-Japanese alliance.

Because it wouldn't be possible when they keep pouring salt on WWII wounds. On Japan's end, China's rise to the top in Asia made them very uncomfortable, since they used to occupy that position.
However, Japanese opposing our efforts or staying neutral is quite a big difference, for instance they could just set up shop and invite their own friends just to foil ours, and that would be counter-productive. I think the best case scenario is an Asian wide trade cooperation that includes Japan, and that certainly won't stroke up national sentiments when the WWII shit is no longer in spotlight.
In any case, Japan is currently helping our relationship with the Koreans by shitmouthing comfort women and whitewashing war crimes. They have also pushed Russia to our arms by joining the US led sanctions. So it makes complete sense to keep opposing them for now.

[Typhoon]

Not that we are saints, but our bad rep has been a little overblown by the media, for obvious reasons.

Probably because its hard not to find a neighbor that China does not have (or had) a territorial dispute with!

Its disappointing because China has been able to find solutions in the past such as in central Asia and with Russia, but this has been overshadowed with the handling of the disputes with Japan, Vietnam etc. which raises problems for China at a time when many across the region are concerned about various aspects of Chinese expansionism (including central Asia).

Indian and Chinese diplomats may be able to meet cordially and there may be a high volume of trade but we as recently as Sept. last year had a very volatile situation with China putting troops into Indian claimed territory past the line of control, so long as these acts occur broader relations are a non-starter. Though India's entry into the SCO is a good move.

In all I think the territorial matters have been handled very badly by China, they have played right into the hands of the US pivot and it will certainly influence any attempt by China to go past the niceties of trade into more substantial matters like regional security.

What I do not understand is why China does not try and court Japan and create a Sino-Japanese alliance.

Probably never gonna happen, there's even a mini-arms race going on right now.

Japan's cabinet has approved a record 4.98 trillion yen (£28bn, $42bn) budget for defense spending, amid a long-running maritime dispute with China.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30808685

[benpenguin]

Probably because its hard not to find a neighbor that China does not have (or had) a territorial dispute with!

We are the aggressor for the most part vs Vietnam and Philippines so I can't say much, but with Japan I think both sides have done their share of provokation. With other countries (Russia for instance) we never really pushed the issue.
China is a mostly landbound country with a long history - you are bound to have plenty of grey areas with terroritorial claims, so that's nothing surprising.

Indian and Chinese diplomats may be able to meet cordially and there may be a high volume of trade but we as recently as Sept. last year had a very volatile situation with China putting troops into Indian claimed territory past the line of control, so long as these acts occur broader relations are a non-starter. Though India's entry into the SCO is a good move.

Sino-Indian relationship is always a mixed bag, I think the arms race and economic cooperation with both continue without hindering each other, because:
1. We had a Sino-Indian conflict (Not a full blown war), but other than that we never had any deep rooted hatred or anything like that.
2. India is friendlier to Japan than to us.
3. We are geographically close and could really use each other's investment and trade.
4. Pakistan
5. We are both regional hegemonies and hegemonies don't usually like each other.

I think in the future the love-hate relationship will continue between India and China, and form a power balance in Asia alongside with Japan.

[Atlantis]

I can't really see that this is such a big policy shift.

1) For developing countries, the report called for supporting their “representation and voice” in international affairs. 2) The report called on China to adjust policy towards multilateral organizations to “advance the development of an international order and system in a just and reasonable direction.” 3) For public diplomacy, China should “promote people to people exchanges and protect China’s rights and interests overseas.”

1) China has always seen itself as a leader of developing countries.
2) I see this as an attempt to hold onto multilateral organisations such as the WTO because the US is trying to replace this multilateral system by a series of bilateral treaties (TTIP, etc.) it is in the process of negotiating with its allies in order to isolate China.
3) China has already for a number of years built cultural institutes in various capitals around the world to promote non-government links.

Finding ways to consolidate China’s influence and weaken potentially threats, such as the U.S. alliance system, offers for China hope of greater security.

This is bound to set China on collision course with the US since China is de facto encircled by a series of US allies in the Asia-Pacific rim.

China’s proposal to create an Asian “community of shared destiny” aims to resolve this imbalance.

That would be funny: a revival of the Japanese co-prosperity sphere under Chinese leadership. The Koreans might go along, but the Japanese ...

the conclusion by Chinese analysts that the periphery and developing nations will overshadow in importance the developed world carries major implications for international politics.

What's new about that? We always knew that with the rise of the emerging markets this was going to happen.

European countries have already discovered how little Beijing cares for their views of PRC policies. China has not only rejected criticisms on human rights issues, it has retaliated with punitive measures against EU nations, as it did to the United Kingdom over meetings with the Dalai Lama ...

China never was impressed by European demands for human rights. And European governments have already given up pressing China on this point years ago. Tibet has become a non-issue.

U.S. demands that China curb its cyber espionage have similarly yielded little fruit.

This is rich. The US certainly isn't going to curb its cyber espionage.

In a situation of intensifying rivalry and distrust, an exasperated United States could well find itself driven to increasingly escalatory measures to ward off PRC behavior it finds threatening to its interests.

To forestall this possibility, the United States will need to step up policy coordination with its Asian allies and a growing array of partner countries, especially the major developing powers in China’s vicinity.

That is exactly what will increase tension between China and the US. In this context it needs to be remembered that The Diplomat, far from being an objective observer, is a US foreign policy tool.

There is basically no chance that we will dominate Europe. We are of a different skin colour, language and cultural heritage, and we are thousands and thousands of miles away. China cannot truly win over European minds like US did, nor can we dominate by force because of the distance. The worst that can happen is that we will gain better influence in you foreign policy (So you guys won't vote everything the US's way in UN assembly), but domination has literally no chance of worry. The very reason that Europeans might even have this fear is because of xenophobia in the first place - further demonstrating my point.

Xenophobia may be an issue with the Chinese, but it certainly won't be an issue with European liberal politicians. Already today, China has an influence over European affairs in being able to prevent European leaders talking to the Dalai Lama, for example. Lets face it, even today, the tables have been turned; European leaders visit Beijing like boot-lickers, asking for investment or commercial deals. The West will loose the ability to impose the rules of the game and China will have an increasing say about the international order. That "domination" will in the end prove more effective than military domination. Few in the West really understand the consequences.

In any case, Japan is currently helping our relationship with the Koreans by shitmouthing comfort women and whitewashing war crimes.

Relations between Korea and China run a lot deeper than that. Already 30 years ago, I was surprised about how good relations were between Seoul and Beijing, despite NK. Historically, Korea has always been closer to China than to Japan.

[benpenguin]

Xenophobia may be an issue with the Chinese, but it certainly won't be an issue with European liberal politicians. Already today, China has an influence over European affairs in being able to prevent European leaders talking to the Dalai Lama, for example. Lets face it, even today, the tables have been turned; European leaders visit Beijing like boot-lickers, asking for investment or commercial deals.

I agree with pretty much everything you said except this, so I just want to add my perspective.

Speaking from first hand experience, most "western-minded" people (Like my townsmen from Hong Kong), speak very humbly to mainland Chinese when we first get to know each other - more humble than needed be. We all heard stories about the Chinese caring so much about face, and we need that "guanxi", and we have this ancient delicate culture that involves a lot of patronage and kow-tow...so we over-complicate things.

Your politicians come here, act humble and say nice things to us just because they are playing it safe and don't want to step on the wrong foot - but China has changed - you no longer really need to do that crap and hope that People's Daily will declare you "Chinese people's friend", before we are ready to do business. And your politicians too, will soon get to understand that given some time. Europe has closed itself off to outside cultures for quite some time, so oriental culture will come as quite a shock. In a good way I think.

On the other hand, if you point your nose at us and nag about human rights and Tibet, that's not going to get you anywhere of cause - Imagine our diplomats going to US then start yammering about racial equality and gun laws? He will probably just get laughed at and ignored - you get my point.

The West will loose the ability to impose the rules of the game and China will have an increasing say about the international order. That "domination" will in the end prove more effective than military domination. Few in the West really understand the consequences.

And rightfully so! China, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil maybe later Cuba, Iran (Just off the top of my head) - we are all going to earn our voice on the international stage. The world will no longer be a white liberal dominion - isn't that beautiful? Nobody is going to really dominate anyone else the way US did. Not even China.

White people will just need to learn and integrate to this new world order - but you are not going from a superior position into submission. As soon as the whites adapt to the multipolar century, the sooner you will re-earn respect, and take your rightful place among the world powers as equals. And that, would be a high point in human history!

[Rei Murasame]

Don't mention it, you made a Pan Asian convert out of me.

That's fantastic, we can back each other up on the issues we overlap on, then.

One of the things you'll encounter though is that people will do things from time to time which will make you feel like everything is going backward (see: certain Asian leaders and their runaway mouths), or that their true face is non-cooperative. But at those times we have to remember of course that 'their corners are being rubbed off' and that over time the trade system itself will show them that it's more productive to collaborate for shared regional goals, than to pick fights with each other.

I'm anticipating that provocative moves from all sides will diminish in frequency and intensity over time, and that after equilibrium is found, institutional frameworks will mediate border disputes and complaints in East Asia, and there will be no more of this thing with "ask Obama to sit there and be a babysitter and mediator", or anything like that.

[benpenguin]

One of the things you'll encounter though is that people will do things from time to time which will make you feel like everything is going backward (see: certain Asian leaders and their runaway mouths), or that their true face is non-cooperative. But at those times we have to remember of course that 'their corners are being rubbed off' and that over time the trade system itself will show them that it's more productive to collaborate for shared regional goals, than to pick fights with each other.

I will keep that in mind. Which is why, for example, while I have a big problem with the Japanese far right, I tend to sideline these problems when they aren't giving us a go.

[Rei Murasame]

I feel the same way about Xi Jinping's inability to wear a decent pair of trousers, and his inability to select a belt or find a jacket that fits him. I forgive China for that cringeworthy display on a daily basis.

Yes, but seriously all dress-sense jokes aside, I totally do get what you mean about Japan at the moment, I think it's gone a bit too far now as well. A number of the comments that have come out of Japanese political figures recently have been genuinely bad, and it's finally at the stage where someone needs to have a talk with them about how there is a difference between [1]defending one's own historical perspective, and [2]blatantly being an international diplomacy troll.

[benpenguin]

I feel the same way about Xi Jinping's inability to wear a decent pair of trousers, and his inability to select a belt or find a jacket that fits him. I forgive China for that cringeworthy display on a daily basis.

Really? I think his outfits are great, especially the first lady!
But well, since my wife picks my clothes for me, I probably shouldn't trust my own fashion sense over a lady.

[Rei Murasame]

Really? I think his outfits are great, especially the first lady!

Oh, his wife does pretty well, but I've seen photos of him where he basically looks like he crawled through a hedge backwards. He probably dresses himself though, which may be part of the problem.

But well, since my wife picks my clothes for me, I probably shouldn't trust my own fashion sense over a lady.

A wise choice.