- 08 Aug 2016 09:05
#14708622
As I try to follow politics in China, I went from highly supportive to Xi’s leadership – to highly disappointed (As explained in my previous thread). But as I try to make sense of what’s happening within high leadership, it became clear to me that, as a “liberal minded” person I can only make peace and wait it out.
Keep in mind that since China’s politics is completely blocked from outside, much of what I discuss here are purely deductions from my observations. Bear with me the exceptionally long article.
Follow my journey in the past two years:
Xi Jinping started his term as leader of our nation by launching the most successful anti-corruption campaign in the history of modern China – he destroyed a number of his top opponents, solidified his power while actually managed to clean up lots of corrupt officials. Regardless of what you think his motives are, the change in atmosphere is undeniable - two birds with one stone! That won him lots of popular support, and with the newly consolidated power, he announced the “One belt one road”, “Industry 4.0” and “Internet+” initiatives. He encouraged investments into science and research, environmental protection, the media industry and Chinese local brands. He reversed lots of GDP-led government policies left by previous governments. I can go on to explain why I think all these initiatives are vital to China’s economic future some other day, but let’s leave it here for now. All in all, things look okay and nationalism soared.
But at the same time, leadership also turned more and more intrusive. Severe limits have been placed on entertainment, news and social media. Executive orders to shut down a particular TV show came every other month – no cleavage on TV, no divorce and pre-marital sex, no this no that, one would think we are living in Iran. The party propaganda machine now penetrates social media as well, shutting down any opinion except the nationalists. In my hometown Hong Kong, political climate has also gotten completely toxic, as Beijing demands complete obedience from HK government and pro-establishment parties, the young and disgruntled joins the opposition and pushes for further and further extremism. But the worst came with China’s recent actions in South China Sea. Regardless of who you think those islands belong to, it seems to me that these actions are completely at odds with Xi’s own diplomatic goals, destroying what’s left of China’s image and any hope of joint Eurasian development / Asian unity.
What’s wrong with China?
So what happened? To understand the Chinese leadership you need to first answer this question – “What’s needs to be fixed with 21st century China?” I am sure every man’s a critic - but outside China, mainstream opinion goes something like this:
“Pollution, rampant corruption, no respect to intellectual property, repression to freedoms, occupation of Uighur, Tibet and South China Sea”
Within China, however, “mainstream” opinion is very different. The answer goes:
“Pollution, rampant corruption, no respect to intellectual property, corruption of social virtual, too much negativity and depravity in media, not being respected by other countries”
You might notice while we share a number of viewpoints, the biggest difference with the liberal world (e.g. “The west”, Hong Kong, Taiwan, parts of South East Asia, etc) vs China, is that in the liberal world, government is considered only to be a custodian of public services. China, on the other hand, is a collective society, where government’s responsibility is to guide the nation and enforce social values accepted by the majority. We call it “Tyranny of the masses” in liberal dictionary.
Democratic China, finally!
Therefore, in a very weird sense, Xi’s government is the most democratic government ever graced our nation, that if we were to hold election, a person like him will be elected.
I can see that you are now shaking your head in disbelief, so let me explain it further:
If you are reading this long and tedious English language article, you are very likely a foreigner or English speaking Chinese, my intended audience. Chinese people that you know likely has more exposure to foreign culture and liberal viewpoints - people like myself. I dislike having my favorite TV shows censored, I am completely dumbstruck as China and Hong Kong went at each other’s throats, and I sneer at excessive displays of nationalism.
In short, I am part of the liberal urban middle class.
In the past 20 years, things were a bit like this: While our government censor you for speaking out against them (Or jail you if you are really irritating), they don’t give a damn about anything else. Everybody is encouraged to get rich and do whatever you want as long as you don’t touch politics, because getting rich is just glorious. In an environment like this, the “liberal urban bourgeois” thrive. We watch Japanese cartoons and Hollywood movies, and the rich ones send their kids to receive foreign education, drive German cars and drink French wine. We sneer at government media mouthpieces and “western liberal narrative” wins no matter what kind of toxic bile they are spewing over China, because being western is just so much cooler. On the foreign policy side, the Chinese government was pretty docile. We could get our Libyan embassy bombed or people massacred in Malaysia, but the Chinese government seldom does anything more than strongly worded condemnation.
At the same time, corruption soars. Income inequality, pollution and a massive array of social problems came shortly after. But for most Chinese bourgeoisie, life’s okay – we will complain, but at the end of the day economic opportunities are plenty and these problems are far removed from our daily lives.
The repressed majority
More and more, I hear these complains from old uncles and grannies: “Chinese people these days have no morals, look at all those crap on TV! In the past we…”, “It’s an American/Japanese conspiracy, we should strike back, our government is so weak…”, “We should promote Chinese traditions, because foreign culture is depraved!”
While my liberal mind habitually dismisses these comments as utter nonsense, what I didn’t realize is that they represent the heart of China’s social conservatives - and they are actually the under-represented majority. People in 2nd/3rd tier cities, suburban towns, rural areas, older people – they are numerous and have very strong views on our country, but they never found their voice in the past decade - Xi Jinping is that voice.
Xi’s game: an analogy
Consider this scenario where China is a corporation. 30 years ago, when we finally ended all major wars and the disastrous cultural revolution, China.co one day found itself looking at a huge blue ocean market free for the taking, and nothing to stop it. The entrepenual Chinese people took full advantage of it - salespeople (aka. City governments, corporates - the haute bourgeois) is busy signing deals every day, and business soared. Naturally, a sales minded CEO is selected by the board, and he took a laisser-faire approach: the guys who bring in most sales (GDP) is rewarded, occasion missteps are overlooked. Unsupervised salespeople then starts to make under table deals, overstep on each other’s boundaries, overpromise on customer delivery, and line their own pockets. But business is good and the CEO doesn’t care. In fact, this mess is not a bad thing, as long as it keeps the guys motivated – in a blue ocean market, speed + aggression is the essence, and greed is the strongest motivator. We call this period “the wild growth”, a term frequently coined to describe this very common phase in our private sector.
But then problems begin to accumulate. Salespeople eat into each other’s territory, customer service is horrible, and company reputation suffers. As more competitors enter our market, China.co needs to transform its business, and the board took on a new CEO, Mr. Xi. Mr. Xi is faced with a big challenge at his hands, but the first thing he needs to do is to bring discipline to all these salespeople running amok. He did it by giving the legal and compliance department lots of power, who started putting an avalanche of regulations in place. A number of department heads protests, all removed by corruption charges and then replaced by Xi’s own people. All that is good for a start - but the real challenge remains - how can we transform this massive business, and find that next blue ocean? Our new CEO has a few good ideas, but like any reformers in human history, he will need access to incredible political power, and for mr.Xi, the only place he can get this power is from popular support.
So who, in China Co. will support him? Simple – the proletariats – who are incredibly conservative, who suffered most from the previous policies. But once you tap into this power, you will need to abide to its views, even if some of it is going against your own policies. China started throwing a nationalist fit, leaving the world completely bewildered.
What’s in store for the future?
As a depraved western aligned liberal living in China, the latest push to conservatism and nationalism is uncomfortable to say the least – and it is likely to continue for the next few years. But I am willing to bet the urban bourgeois class is at least as uncomfortable as I am. Most of us don’t realize what’s happening just yet, but eventually there will be pushbacks. This economy is new to everyone, and China is effectively going through a painful adjustment period – what happens now is simply an over-correction to what happened in the past decade.
The pendulum will swing back - until then - hide your strength, bide your time…
Keep in mind that since China’s politics is completely blocked from outside, much of what I discuss here are purely deductions from my observations. Bear with me the exceptionally long article.
Follow my journey in the past two years:
Xi Jinping started his term as leader of our nation by launching the most successful anti-corruption campaign in the history of modern China – he destroyed a number of his top opponents, solidified his power while actually managed to clean up lots of corrupt officials. Regardless of what you think his motives are, the change in atmosphere is undeniable - two birds with one stone! That won him lots of popular support, and with the newly consolidated power, he announced the “One belt one road”, “Industry 4.0” and “Internet+” initiatives. He encouraged investments into science and research, environmental protection, the media industry and Chinese local brands. He reversed lots of GDP-led government policies left by previous governments. I can go on to explain why I think all these initiatives are vital to China’s economic future some other day, but let’s leave it here for now. All in all, things look okay and nationalism soared.
But at the same time, leadership also turned more and more intrusive. Severe limits have been placed on entertainment, news and social media. Executive orders to shut down a particular TV show came every other month – no cleavage on TV, no divorce and pre-marital sex, no this no that, one would think we are living in Iran. The party propaganda machine now penetrates social media as well, shutting down any opinion except the nationalists. In my hometown Hong Kong, political climate has also gotten completely toxic, as Beijing demands complete obedience from HK government and pro-establishment parties, the young and disgruntled joins the opposition and pushes for further and further extremism. But the worst came with China’s recent actions in South China Sea. Regardless of who you think those islands belong to, it seems to me that these actions are completely at odds with Xi’s own diplomatic goals, destroying what’s left of China’s image and any hope of joint Eurasian development / Asian unity.
What’s wrong with China?
So what happened? To understand the Chinese leadership you need to first answer this question – “What’s needs to be fixed with 21st century China?” I am sure every man’s a critic - but outside China, mainstream opinion goes something like this:
“Pollution, rampant corruption, no respect to intellectual property, repression to freedoms, occupation of Uighur, Tibet and South China Sea”
Within China, however, “mainstream” opinion is very different. The answer goes:
“Pollution, rampant corruption, no respect to intellectual property, corruption of social virtual, too much negativity and depravity in media, not being respected by other countries”
You might notice while we share a number of viewpoints, the biggest difference with the liberal world (e.g. “The west”, Hong Kong, Taiwan, parts of South East Asia, etc) vs China, is that in the liberal world, government is considered only to be a custodian of public services. China, on the other hand, is a collective society, where government’s responsibility is to guide the nation and enforce social values accepted by the majority. We call it “Tyranny of the masses” in liberal dictionary.
Democratic China, finally!
Therefore, in a very weird sense, Xi’s government is the most democratic government ever graced our nation, that if we were to hold election, a person like him will be elected.
I can see that you are now shaking your head in disbelief, so let me explain it further:
If you are reading this long and tedious English language article, you are very likely a foreigner or English speaking Chinese, my intended audience. Chinese people that you know likely has more exposure to foreign culture and liberal viewpoints - people like myself. I dislike having my favorite TV shows censored, I am completely dumbstruck as China and Hong Kong went at each other’s throats, and I sneer at excessive displays of nationalism.
In short, I am part of the liberal urban middle class.
In the past 20 years, things were a bit like this: While our government censor you for speaking out against them (Or jail you if you are really irritating), they don’t give a damn about anything else. Everybody is encouraged to get rich and do whatever you want as long as you don’t touch politics, because getting rich is just glorious. In an environment like this, the “liberal urban bourgeois” thrive. We watch Japanese cartoons and Hollywood movies, and the rich ones send their kids to receive foreign education, drive German cars and drink French wine. We sneer at government media mouthpieces and “western liberal narrative” wins no matter what kind of toxic bile they are spewing over China, because being western is just so much cooler. On the foreign policy side, the Chinese government was pretty docile. We could get our Libyan embassy bombed or people massacred in Malaysia, but the Chinese government seldom does anything more than strongly worded condemnation.
At the same time, corruption soars. Income inequality, pollution and a massive array of social problems came shortly after. But for most Chinese bourgeoisie, life’s okay – we will complain, but at the end of the day economic opportunities are plenty and these problems are far removed from our daily lives.
The repressed majority
More and more, I hear these complains from old uncles and grannies: “Chinese people these days have no morals, look at all those crap on TV! In the past we…”, “It’s an American/Japanese conspiracy, we should strike back, our government is so weak…”, “We should promote Chinese traditions, because foreign culture is depraved!”
While my liberal mind habitually dismisses these comments as utter nonsense, what I didn’t realize is that they represent the heart of China’s social conservatives - and they are actually the under-represented majority. People in 2nd/3rd tier cities, suburban towns, rural areas, older people – they are numerous and have very strong views on our country, but they never found their voice in the past decade - Xi Jinping is that voice.
Xi’s game: an analogy
Consider this scenario where China is a corporation. 30 years ago, when we finally ended all major wars and the disastrous cultural revolution, China.co one day found itself looking at a huge blue ocean market free for the taking, and nothing to stop it. The entrepenual Chinese people took full advantage of it - salespeople (aka. City governments, corporates - the haute bourgeois) is busy signing deals every day, and business soared. Naturally, a sales minded CEO is selected by the board, and he took a laisser-faire approach: the guys who bring in most sales (GDP) is rewarded, occasion missteps are overlooked. Unsupervised salespeople then starts to make under table deals, overstep on each other’s boundaries, overpromise on customer delivery, and line their own pockets. But business is good and the CEO doesn’t care. In fact, this mess is not a bad thing, as long as it keeps the guys motivated – in a blue ocean market, speed + aggression is the essence, and greed is the strongest motivator. We call this period “the wild growth”, a term frequently coined to describe this very common phase in our private sector.
But then problems begin to accumulate. Salespeople eat into each other’s territory, customer service is horrible, and company reputation suffers. As more competitors enter our market, China.co needs to transform its business, and the board took on a new CEO, Mr. Xi. Mr. Xi is faced with a big challenge at his hands, but the first thing he needs to do is to bring discipline to all these salespeople running amok. He did it by giving the legal and compliance department lots of power, who started putting an avalanche of regulations in place. A number of department heads protests, all removed by corruption charges and then replaced by Xi’s own people. All that is good for a start - but the real challenge remains - how can we transform this massive business, and find that next blue ocean? Our new CEO has a few good ideas, but like any reformers in human history, he will need access to incredible political power, and for mr.Xi, the only place he can get this power is from popular support.
So who, in China Co. will support him? Simple – the proletariats – who are incredibly conservative, who suffered most from the previous policies. But once you tap into this power, you will need to abide to its views, even if some of it is going against your own policies. China started throwing a nationalist fit, leaving the world completely bewildered.
What’s in store for the future?
As a depraved western aligned liberal living in China, the latest push to conservatism and nationalism is uncomfortable to say the least – and it is likely to continue for the next few years. But I am willing to bet the urban bourgeois class is at least as uncomfortable as I am. Most of us don’t realize what’s happening just yet, but eventually there will be pushbacks. This economy is new to everyone, and China is effectively going through a painful adjustment period – what happens now is simply an over-correction to what happened in the past decade.
The pendulum will swing back - until then - hide your strength, bide your time…
Society changes, politics changes, no ideology should remain stationary.
Also I was talking about different prevailent positions amongst all Chinese, not just the party itself. Even the party is not united anyway, no matter how hard they pretend.
Where did you deduce that from?
- By FiveofSwords
- By wat0n
- By Rancid