[Jack Silverhand]

Newly acquired satellite photos acquired from Digital Globe (Maxar) show that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is building what appears to be a new type of missile silo in the missile training area near Jilantai, possibly for use by a new ICBM.

The photos also show that 18 road-mobile launchers of the long-awaited DF-41 ICBM were training in the area in April-May 2019 together with launchers for the DF-31AG ICBM, possibly the DF-5B ICBM, the DF-26 IRBM, and the DF-21 MRBM.

Altogether, more than 72 missile launchers can be seen operating together.

China is in the middle of a significant modernization of its nuclear weapons arsenal and the Jilantai training area, which has been constructed since 2014, appears to play an important part in that modernization effort.

https://fas.org/blogs/security/2019/09/china-silo-df41/

[anasawad]

Ok, and?

[ThirdTerm]

A prominent academic has suggested that Canberra will not survive without nuclear weapons due to China’s growing aggression in the South China Sea and a recent lack of support from the US. China poses the biggest threat to Australia without the support of Donald Trump, who clearly dislikes Aussie leaders.

The basic idea is that if America was unable or unwilling to provide the extended nuclear deterrent umbrella, then regional powers in the Far East would have to provide for their own nuclear deterrence. This argument might hold of S Korea and Japan, but I don’t think it does for my own country.

I personally think Australia doesn't have to adopt self-made nuclear deterrence strategies but it needs a major American naval base in Darwin to deter an attack, rather than a verbal guarantee from Washington. South Korea is the least country which could develop nuclear weapons unless Japan decides to pursue a nuclear path. Given the current pro-North Korean political atmosphere, South Korea is more likely to start a war with Japan than it would with its northern neighbor.

Hugh White, who wrote Australia’s Defence White Paper in 2000, released a manifesto on what his country needs to do to survive amid growing tensions in the region.

Having suggested that China poses the biggest threat to Australia – especially without the avid support of Donald Trump – Mr White claims that his nation’s conventional weapons are not enough to deter an attack.

He said Canberra can no longer rely on the US to defend them from any sort of invasion – leaving Australia to fend for itself.

This would matter especially in a nuclear war, where China could “use the threat of a nuclear attack to force us to capitulate in a conventional war.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/11 ... -trump-spt

[foxdemon]

Why is this in the N America forum?


@ThirdTerm

There is a debate going on in Australia regarding nukes, as there is in S Korea and Japan. Personally, I don’t find the arguments for an Australian nuclear strike capability to be persuasive.

The basic idea is that if America was unable or unwilling to provide the extended nuclear deterrent umbrella, then regional powers in the Far East would have to provide for their own nuclear deterrence. This argument might hold of S Korea and Japan, but I don’t think it does for my own country.

The reasons are twofold.

Firstly, Australia can only be approached via long distance projection of maritime power. Conventional weapons are just as effective as nukes when it comes to sinking ships. The ‘first off set’ strategy the USA used in the first stage of the Cold War, or the same strategy now used by Pakistan and Russia, only makes sense if the nation had a land border and is facing an opponent with superior land forces.

The second reason is deterring nuclear attack can be achieved through alliance with nuclear powers. Apart from America, Australia has a close alliance with both France and the UK, both of which have nukes. The relationship with India is slowly improving and will continue to do so while China insists on taking an aggressive approach to foreign policy. India also has nukes. Any power that considered a nuclear strike on Australia would have to take into account the possibility of retaliation from these nuclear powers.

It is possible that the withdraw of the US nuclear guarantee would result in Korea and Japan deploying nukes, but in Australia’s case it is unlikely to happen.