[late]

Just an old, sweet song...

I don't say China is Fascist, mostly because it's more of a distraction than a help.

I will point out that Xi is a dictator, and that if you google 14 Traits of Fascism, he ticks a lot of the boxes.

But I am digressing already, sorry. Not why I'm here..

I think China is chest deep in doo doo. They have a ton of problems, severe ones.

They also have a history of collapse, and one of those was caused by the West. That's one of their great fears.

And that's the how and why Xi became dictator. When a country gets into trouble, sometimes they give power to a guy that promises to get them out of trouble. Here's the thing, until recently the Western educated Xi had excellent personal relationships with the West.

They say there are two tragedies in life, not getting what you want, and getting what you want. He got what he wanted, and once he was in power, found it was too late. So now he's trying to hold it together, and hoping to get lucky. Or something like that.

But he's in a bind, a number of them. The Chinese government exerts too much control over the economy, which resulted in a massive real estate bubble. More control is unlikely to help. Neither is throwing good money after bad, I suspect they are throwing a LOT of money into real estate.

This is minor, but the mantra of modern economies is transparency. Most countries fall short, America certainly does. But China keeps a ton of stuff hidden, and it's figures are not always accurate when they do report.

China needs to move an insane amount of water from Northern China to Southern China. They have one big project, they need several. They need it a lot more than adding more bullet trains. Or big expansions in their military, for that matter.

They have a real problem with the quality of construction. They've grown so fast that the regulation we slowly developed is anemic. When they finally shift to being a mature economy, that means construction will slow down, and that means they will have tons of trouble finding money to replace dams that collapse, for example. Not to mention how they are going to manage their real estate situation when the bubble bursts, and the poor quality of construction suddenly becomes important when you're going to be living there indefinitely. There hasn't been an incentive to build buildings that will last. Remember how my country freaked out when part of that condo collapsed in the Miami area? Expect a lot of that, and more than a few people to get turned into tomato paste under tons of debris. That is demoralising.

All of this doesn't really change what we have to do. We made Asian economic growth possible, starting after WW2. And we are still trying to keep the peace. Yes, we have many flaws and we've made horrible mistakes. But ask Taiwan, the Phillipines, Japan, Vietnam or even India if they want us to pick up our toys and go home. Before Xi, most of them were sucking up to China, but that has changed.

If you want to know what I am keeping an eye on, it's not the South China sea. Well, I am, obviously, but what has me worried is the aggression against India. India won't tolerate that for long.

We could get dragged into it, and I doubt it would stay non-nuclear.

[Fasces]

10/10 propoganda post, bravo



Was it intentional or just the natural product of the American defense industry manufacturing consent for aggression against China the past eight years?

Here's the thing, until recently the Western educated Xi had excellent personal relationships with the West.

Xi Jinping is not Western educated. He spent a couple weeks in Iowa or Idaho once, in his late 20s.

Xi Jinping has always been critical of the West, and critical of Chinese reapproachment with the West as a rising politician.

The Chinese government exerts too much control over the economy, which resulted in a massive real estate bubble.

Any specific policies you'd like to point to? Even one?

More control is unlikely to help. Neither is throwing good money after bad, I suspect they are throwing a LOT of money into real estate.

Source? China has refused to bail out Evergrande and other real estate companies.

This is minor, but the mantra of modern economies is transparency. Most countries fall short, America certainly does. But China keeps a ton of stuff hidden, and it's figures are not always accurate when they do report.

Unfalsifiable assertion. Do you trust international figures of China's economic performance?

China needs to move an insane amount of water from Northern China to Southern China. They have one big project, they need several.

What quantity of water does Southern China need?

What quantity of water does it produce?

What quantity of water will be brought from "Northern China" (northern China being one of the biggest deserts in the world, but OK)?

They have a real problem with the quality of construction.

Citation needed.

When they finally shift to being a mature economy, that means construction will slow down. There hasn't been an incentive to build buildings that will last.

These two claims contradict.

But ask Taiwan, the Phillipines, Japan, Vietnam or even India if they want us to pick up our toys and go home. Before Xi, most of them were sucking up to China, but that has changed.

Japan wants the US out of Okinawa. They've refused to back US military action against China as recently as 2020.

Vietnam spat in the face of the US when they proposed military cooperation in 2021.

Duarte is plauing both sides, to great effect.

India won't tolerate that for long.

Puttign aside that describing the situation as Chinese aggrression presupposes the validity of Indians claim, which is disputed, the with no reason provided: no reasonable expert claims that India, realistically, could successfully fight a war against China.

It'll be a cold war, much like the war India faces against China's ally in Pakistan.

I doubt it would stay non-nuclear

India and China have both signed non-first-strike pledges, the only two states in the world to do so.

[late]

1) Was it intentional or just the natural product of the American defense industry manufacturing consent for aggression against China the past eight years?



2) Xi Jinping is not Western educated. He spent a couple weeks in Iowa or Idaho once, in his late 20s.

3) Xi Jinping has always been critical of the West, and critical of Chinese reapproachment with the West as a rising politician.


4) Any specific policies you'd like to point to? Even one?



5) Source? China has refused to bail out Evergrande and other real estate companies.



6) Unfalsifiable assertion. Do you trust international figures of China's economic performance?



7) What quantity of water does Southern China need?



Citation needed.



9) These two claims contradict.



10) Japan wants the US out of Okinawa. They've refused to back US military action against China as recently as 2020.

11) Vietnam spat in the face of the US when they proposed military cooperation in 2021.


12) India and China have both signed non-first-strike pledges, the only two states in the world to do so.

1) China claimed the entire South China sea (and sinking ships from less powerful countries to make the point), stole part of India. Before Xi, most of the world was sucking up to China, that's stopped.

2) I goofed on the Western educated part, he was working on a re-education farm. But he did take two trips, not one, and had warm and cordial relationships with the West when he was VP.

3) You mean a politician might say one thing and do something else?? I am shocked.

4) I have pointed out the real estate bubble a number of times. There are others, ask Jack Ma.

5) "China has urged financial institutions to help local governments stabilize the rapidly cooling housing market and ease mortgages for some homebuyers, another signal that authorities are worried about fallout from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group."
[url]China has urged financial institutions to help local governments stabilize the rapidly cooling housing market and ease mortgages for some homebuyers, another signal that authorities are worried about fallout from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group.[/url]
China has a long history of manipulating their economy. That is likely changing, now that the bubble appears to have burst, but that is very recent.

6) Are you really trying to say we see what China hides??? Economists and investors alike have been complaining about that for years.

7) https://waterfootprint.org/en/about-us/news/news/china-water-probemes-report/

If you don't know that, wtf are you doing in a conversation about China?

9) Hardly, young economies have double digit growth. When they mature, things slow down. They also need to build on the infrastructure base that's there. Which they can't do if parts of it keep falling down...

10) Japan participated in the big Freedom of Navigation exercise, along with a bunch of other countries.

11) "This is wholly understandable. As I have recently examined at length in a RAND research report, Vietnam is doubling-down on its delicate balancing act as U.S.-China competition throughout the Indo-Pacific dramatically heats up. Although Hanoi feels compelled to counter China’s bad behavior in the South China Sea, it also understands that its future is inextricably tied to peaceful relations with Beijing. Thus, Hanoi typically avoids publicly airing policy preferences, and even privately, the Vietnamese are notoriously subtle and difficult to read."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/what-does-vietnam-want-from-the-us-in-the-south-china-sea/

12) Conquering is not cold war.. If China keeps this up, it will go hot. And that, my friend, will be the stickiest of sticky wickets..

[Fasces]

1) China claimed the entire South China sea (and sinking ships from less powerful countries to make the point),

The claim preexists the People's Republic of China, and to claim that China is the only power using force or violence to back up their claims is comically mistaken, like the bulk of the nonsense in your posts.

stole part of India.

Here we go again, begging the question. It is only stealing if you accept the Indian claim - you have yet to elaborate on why you find the Indian claim so convincing, mind. I doubt there's any reasoning behind it at all, to be honest, beyond empty "I hate China so they're wrong".

Before Xi, most of the world was sucking up to China, that's stopped.

A map of the world, according to late.

2) I goofed on the Western educated part, he was working on a re-education farm. But he did take two trips, not one, and had warm and cordial relationships with the West when he was VP.

A "goof" is a one-time simple mistake. This was yet more evidence of just how little you actually know about China and its leadership, and how much of your opinions on the topic are just regurgitated neo-Cold War propaganda you've sucked up like a sponge.

3) You mean a politician might say one thing and do something else?? I am shocked.

Xi has never put Western interests ahead of China, or meaningfully changed his rhetoric. You haven't provided even one example of your two claims, mind - either him acting pro-West, or supporting Western rapprochement.

4) I have pointed out the real estate bubble a number of times.

Yes, but provided exactly zero evidence or specifically beyond "it exists". You don't have a specific example to discuss because there is no substance to your criticisms - they're just opinions formed in the ether of vague propaganda you've internalized.

5) "China has urged financial institutions to help local governments stabilize the rapidly cooling housing market and ease mortgages for some homebuyers, another signal that authorities are worried about fallout from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group."

Not only did you not link a source pointing to a (non-existent) bail out of Evergrande, you didn't post a source at all.

China has a long history of manipulating their economy.

A country regulating its economy? The fucking horror!

7) https://waterfootprint.org/en/about-us/news/news/china-water-probemes-report/

This report is about a pipeline shipping water from the South to the North, the reverse of what you claimed.

This report is based on figures reported by the Chinese National Academy of Sciences, a source just now you claimed is unreliable and faked.

This report makes no claims that China is water-insecure, just that water-transfer projects will not be enough alone to alleviate demand. Which is fine: water-transfer alone isn't enough to alleviate water demand in California, but no one in the US claims that the USA is water-insecure and about to collapse.

8) If you don't know that, wtf are you doing in a conversation about China?

wtf are you doing? You clearly have no idea what you're talking about on the topic.

9) Hardly, young economies have double digit growth. When they mature, things slow down. They also need to build on the infrastructure base that's there. Which they can't do if parts of it keep falling down...

China's logistical and transportation infrastructure is world class - far superior to any in Europe or North America. It is not 'crumbling'.

China does have a bad habit of building residential and commercial construction with less of a priority on lasting, but this is not a bad thing for the construction industry: it guarantees continual work. I agree that from a perspective of environmental sustainability, this is bad.

10) Japan participated in the big Freedom of Navigation exercise, along with a bunch of other countries.

11)

12)

And at the same time, refused to sign a military pact to counter China with the US, and signed a huge trade deal with China. The SCS does not meaningfully affect China's relationship with its neighbors. China continues to improve its relationship with its neighbors, despite the dispute.

Repeating yourself over and over and over again doesn't magically make it true, late.

[JohnRawls]

China(CCP) is in a constant state of aggression against the Chinese people, what is there to discuss. China is Evil.

[Godstud]

So what does this mean, then?


Levels of government and public opinion
The survey team found that compared to public opinion patterns in the U.S., in China there was very high satisfaction with the central government. In 2016, the last year the survey was conducted, 95.5 percent of respondents were either “relatively satisfied” or “highly satisfied” with Beijing. In contrast to these findings, Gallup reported in January of this year that their latest polling on U.S. citizen satisfaction with the American federal government revealed only 38 percent of respondents were satisfied with the federal government.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... isfaction/

It's a good article but it shows that China is NOT evil as some people want to believe.

Chinese people are happy, but some Westerners hate to admit it
The persons and organizations, which assert Chinese people do not feel happy, could hardly provide any convincing opinion poll results. They have tried hard to utilize marginalized emotional and radical rhetoric on the internet as mainstream voices, in an attempt to prove their stereotypes about China.

The Chinese are more upbeat than before, just like Americans when the US was rising. The Chinese people know that China still lags behind developed countries in a wide range of fields and are well aware of their own issues. But they have confidence in tackling the stumbling blocks on their way. That is how China has developed to where it is today - making strides by resolving problems - which is in sharp contrast to the way the US and some other Western countries handle the crisis.

The epidemic has greatly boosted Chinese people's confidence in their country's national governance and political system. After going through the crisis, they have become more optimistic about the future, while the corresponding mood and morale is gloomy in Western societies.

Some Western elites just could not stand seeing Chinese people feel happy. They choose to cover up their own issues and disappointment by cursing China or even twisting results of opinion polls. Unfortunately, doing so will not help them turn the tables. Being a part of the West, once so strong, they are not supposed, and accustomed as well, to degenerate like this.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1203979.shtml

[JohnRawls]

So what does this mean, then?


Levels of government and public opinion
The survey team found that compared to public opinion patterns in the U.S., in China there was very high satisfaction with the central government. In 2016, the last year the survey was conducted, 95.5 percent of respondents were either “relatively satisfied” or “highly satisfied” with Beijing. In contrast to these findings, Gallup reported in January of this year that their latest polling on U.S. citizen satisfaction with the American federal government revealed only 38 percent of respondents were satisfied with the federal government.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... isfaction/

It's a good article but it shows that China is NOT evil as some people want to believe.

Chinese people are happy, but some Westerners hate to admit it
The persons and organizations, which assert Chinese people do not feel happy, could hardly provide any convincing opinion poll results. They have tried hard to utilize marginalized emotional and radical rhetoric on the internet as mainstream voices, in an attempt to prove their stereotypes about China.

The Chinese are more upbeat than before, just like Americans when the US was rising. The Chinese people know that China still lags behind developed countries in a wide range of fields and are well aware of their own issues. But they have confidence in tackling the stumbling blocks on their way. That is how China has developed to where it is today - making strides by resolving problems - which is in sharp contrast to the way the US and some other Western countries handle the crisis.

The epidemic has greatly boosted Chinese people's confidence in their country's national governance and political system. After going through the crisis, they have become more optimistic about the future, while the corresponding mood and morale is gloomy in Western societies.

Some Western elites just could not stand seeing Chinese people feel happy. They choose to cover up their own issues and disappointment by cursing China or even twisting results of opinion polls. Unfortunately, doing so will not help them turn the tables. Being a part of the West, once so strong, they are not supposed, and accustomed as well, to degenerate like this.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1203979.shtml

Yes, I am sure when you are denied your human rights then you are happy.

[late]

The claim preexists the People's Republic of China, and to claim that China is the only power using force or violence to back up their claims is comically mistaken, like the bulk of the nonsense in your posts.

Dead emperors don't have standing in court... as a legal claim, that is nuts. Your argument is the old saw, "Might makes right".

Which, if you want war, is fine. Some of us want to avoid WW3.

The core of my argument is that China is in trouble. You didn't refute that. In fact, you can't.

Now that the bubble has burst, the bad news will continue to leak out.

[late]

In 2016, the last year the survey was conducted, 95.5 percent of respondents were either “relatively satisfied” or “highly satisfied” with Beijing.

2016???

Think about that for a couple seconds.

That looks a lot like somebody has a lot to hide..

[Fasces]

The core of my argument is that China is in trouble.

Your argument has no core. It is entirely devoid of substance. It is the shadow of an argument, ephemeral as a ghost, made up entirely of vague stereotypes, misunderstood facts, regurgitated propoganda and outright fabrications. This has been demonstrated time and time again.

[Rugoz]

Some Western elites just could not stand seeing Chinese people feel happy. They choose to cover up their own issues and disappointment by cursing China or even twisting results of opinion polls. Unfortunately, doing so will not help them turn the tables. Being a part of the West, once so strong, they are not supposed, and accustomed as well, to degenerate like this.

Jeez, who writes this shit.

If you think American presidents treat their audience like toddlers, they're nothing compared to CCP propaganda.

[late]

Your argument has no core.

"LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese President Xi Jinping has a better understanding of the economic challenges facing his country than most investors. In recent years, the leader-for-life has warned of the dangers posed by the real estate bubble, excessive debt levels, widespread corruption and rising inequality. These problems are not unique to the People’s Republic. In the past, every country in the region that adopted the so-called Asian development model has faced similar problems. Xi’s dilemma is that there is no easy way for China to surmount them.

But growth in Asia is inherently unstable. Artificially low interest rates fuel real estate bubbles, such as Japan experienced in the late 1980s and Thailand in the following decade. Easy money also leads to the buildup of excessive debts, as occurred across Southeast Asia in the early 1990s. Cheap capital encourages wasteful investments that undermine productivity growth. The policy of suppressing domestic consumption creates an unbalanced economy. Furthermore, opportunities for corruption abound when credit is distributed by state-run banks..

To appreciate the challenges facing China, consider what happened to its neighbours when their economies abruptly changed direction. After Japan’s real estate market turned down in 1990, residential properties became more affordable. But the bust produced two banking crises and a persistent deflation that hung over the economy for decades."

more at the link...

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chancellor-chinas-economic-miracle-is-ending-2021-11-11/

[Crantag]

China(CCP) is in a constant state of aggression against the Chinese people, what is there to discuss. China is Evil.

Not true. China is fairly harmonious. It is not a bad place. You've obviously never been there.

[Rugoz]

Chinese President Xi Jinping has a better understanding of the economic challenges facing his country than most investors. In recent years, the leader-for-life has warned of the dangers posed by the real estate bubble, excessive debt levels, widespread corruption and rising inequality. These problems are not unique to the People’s Republic. In the past, every country in the region that adopted the so-called Asian development model has faced similar problems. Xi’s dilemma is that there is no easy way for China to surmount them.

Problem is, it's difficult to judge how serious those issues are from the outside because of the lack of economic data on China. For example, economists have to rely on "satellite readings of night-time luminosity" to estimate how the US-China tariff war affects China's economy: https://voxeu.org/article/us-china-tari ... ght-lights

[late]

Problem is, it's difficult to judge how serious those issues are from the outside because of the lack of economic data on China. For example, economists have to rely on "satellite readings of night-time luminosity" to estimate how the US-China tariff war affects China's economy: https://voxeu.org/article/us-china-tari ... ght-lights

Very true.

[JohnRawls]

Not true. China is fairly harmonious. It is not a bad place. You've obviously never been there.

Do people have all human rights in China?

[Crantag]

Do people have all human rights in China?

More ignorance-based hyperbole.

"Human rights" is one of those terms that is so bantered about and so misused that it means nothing.

Basically all American political terms become corrupted and meaningless.

Day-to-day life in China is better than in the US, in my opinion.

But, I currently choose to live in the US, because I am American.

Also, I lost my job in China due to covid.

[JohnRawls]

More ignorance-based hyperbole.

"Human rights" is one of those terms that is so bantered about and so misused that it means nothing.

Basically all American political terms become corrupted and meaningless.

Day-to-day life in China is better than in the US, in my opinion.

But, I currently choose to live in the US, because I am American.

Also, I lost my job in China due to covid.

Being able able to discuss different subjects without censorship is not nonsense, being able to discuss the mistakes of your government and officials is not nonsense, being able to elect your own leaders is not nonsense and so on...

[Fasces]

more at the link...

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chancellor-chinas-economic-miracle-is-ending-2021-11-11/

This time for sure.

1994. (UPI) China's high-flying economy finally began to descend in 1994

1998. (The Economist) Red Alert: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth

1999. (Bloomberg) China: What's Going Wrong.

2003. (New York Times Opinion) Banking crisis imperils China, Gordon Chang

2004. (The Economist) The great fall of China?

2004. (New York Times) China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing

2006. (International Economy) Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?

2007. (TIME) Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?

2008. (Asia Pacific Journal) The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China, Nouriel Roubini

2009. (Fortune) China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.

2011: (Reuters) "Meaningful probability" of a China hard landing: Roubini.

2011: (Business Insider) A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think

2012: (American Interest) Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing

2013: (Zero Hedge) A Hard Landing In China

2014. (CNBC) A hard landing in China.

2015. (Forbes) Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.

2016. (The Economist) Hard landing looms for China

2016. (George Soros) China Hard Landing Is Practically Unavoidable

2017. (National Interest) Is China's Economy Going To Crash?

2018. (The Guardian) A Chinese recession is inevitable - don't think it won't affect you

2019. (Bloomberg) China’s Lehman Moment Is Drawing Closer

2020. (Wall Street Journal Opinion) China is the real sick man of Asia

There's thousands more - mostly by folks that don't speak Chinese, don't do business in China, and in many cases, have never set foot in it. They have no idea what they're talking about and rely on "experts" handpicked by the US government to carry a specific message.



You're not saying anything new. Neither are these predictions. Hell, look at this one from 2012, from Gordon Chang (who has predicted China's collapse every year since 1998).

https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/12/29/th ... 2-edition/

Hu Jintao, the current leader, is presiding over an era marked by, on balance, the reversal of reform. There has been, especially since 2008, a partial renationalization of the economy and a marked narrowing of opportunities for foreign business. For example, Beijing blocked acquisitions by foreigners, erected new barriers like the “indigenous innovation” rules, and harassed market-leading companies like Google. Strengthening “national champion” state enterprises at the expense of others, Hu has abandoned the economic paradigm that made his country successful.

Replace Hu Jintao with Xi Jinping, and 2008 with 2019, and this sentence could've been written this year - almost word for word. In the last couple of years, Hu has been "rehabilitated" in the eyes of the west, now seen as a reformer and liberal in comparison to Xi. I imagine that if/when the next paramount leader takes the helm in China, Xi would also undergo a similar rehabilitation.

China is more dependent on international commerce than almost any other nation, so trade friction — or even declining global demand — will hurt it more than others. The country, for instance, could be the biggest victim of the eurozone crisis.

Replace eurozone with whatever crisis of the day you want - same thing. You're doing it now, when you're not getting basic facts fundamentally wrong, repeating yourself with no evidence, and walking back claims you can't be bothered to actually defend.

It's the same empty predictions again and again and again and again - based entirely on a (willful) hollow and empty understanding of how China works and why - alongside an undeserved chauvinistic certainty in the inherent superiority of Western civilization and its rightful place at the head of some natural hierarchy.

[late]

You're not saying anything new.

Neither is Xi...



Everyone knew they were following the Asian model, which meant they would eventually run into trouble. Because a crash in China could potentially tank the global economy, it's something people have worried about. That cat is out of the bag, now.

I can't speak for anyone else, but that idiotic blah, blah, blah is boring.