[Fasces]

JPMorgan: 6.4%

Citigroup: 6.1%

Goldman Sachs: 6.0%

UBS: 5.4%

IMF: 5.4%

China 2022 Official Data: 4.5%

https://archive.ph/PGKAu

Zeihan: Chinese economy will collapse completely within 10 years.

[Patrickov]

Collapse is usually a sudden event so we don't know who's right until the end, and with the low transparency of information from China it's inevitable that any estimation has to be taken with a grain of salt.

[ingliz]

Collapse

[JohnRawls]

JPMorgan: 6.4%

Citigroup: 6.1%

Goldman Sachs: 6.0%

UBS: 5.4%

IMF: 5.4%

China 2022 Official Data: 4.5%

https://archive.ph/PGKAu

Zeihan: Chinese economy will collapse completely within 10 years.

This is the problem. If you look at Russia for an example then once the growth dipped under 5% then Putin started to act like a retard since authoritarian regimes do tend to legitimize themselves in some other way once internal growth slows and it slows due to lack of real reform. 4.5/5 is 1 to 1.5 slower to pre-covid levels which is a faster decline in trend than before. This graph only goes to 2021 but you get it if you put 4.5 or 5 on the graph.

Isn't the whole deal in China and Russia that people sell out and give away all of their political rights for stability and growth? But it is not much of a deal if there is no growth and stability is undermined by actions of the autocrat.

[JohnRawls]

Here is Russia for example and some events mapped out. Actually I could have put Navalny arrest/poisoning also on there in the dip at the end but whatever. You get the point. As growth slows so does the authoritarian regime tendency to try to safeguard itself against change and attempts to legitimise itself by finding enemies abroad or easy targets abroad/inside.

[Patrickov]

Isn't the whole deal in China and Russia that people sell out and give away all of their political rights for stability and growth? But it is not much of a deal if there is no growth and stability is undermined by actions of the autocrat.

Actually China is the more problematic one here because the Chinese are reluctant to breed and their population is starting to age and decline.

And then they do not have the stability, liberty and (positive) creativity that the Japanese and (South) Koreans are able to give themselves.

They are bound to fall.

[Rancid]

"official" data....

[Beren]

"official" data....

You misplaced the quotation marks.

[Beren]

Actually China is the more problematic one here because the Chinese are reluctant to breed and their population is starting to age and decline.

It's even worse in Russia perhaps. Only Putin breeds there, and sooner or later only he'll stay.

[Rancid]

You misplaced the quotation marks.

oh.... yea...

[Fasces]

The official data estimates are below the American private ones.

These were Chinese forecasts until 2028:



So far this year, China, according to American sources, is exceeding expectations, by around ~15-25% (as of Q1), and, according to Chinese sources, underperforming by around 15-20% (as of Q1). The American sources had to revise their growth estimates a few days ago to match current import and export data, moving their estimates for a forecast of around 4% growth to the 6% in the OP.

Despite this data coming from American estimates, its clear that the attitudes of many here are based on something completely unfalsifiable - if first-party sources can't be trusted, and third-party sources aren't trusted over gut feeling, what more can be said?

"China must inevitably be failing or will fail because I want it too and data is irrelevant"

[Rugoz]

Despite this data coming from American estimates, its clear that the attitudes of many here are based on something completely unfalsifiable - if first-party sources can't be trusted, and third-party sources aren't trusted over gut feeling, what more can be said?

"China must inevitably be failing or will fail because I want it too and data is irrelevant"

As if you can predict Chinese GDP with any accuracy without official data. Those "American estimates" no doubt rely on past officlal GDP growth figures.

[Fasces]

No doubt, but no facts - just more guesswork!

[Rugoz]

No doubt, but no facts - just more guesswork!

If they don't they're bullshit anyway.

[JohnRawls]

The official data estimates are below the American private ones.

These were Chinese forecasts until 2028:



So far this year, China, according to American sources, is exceeding expectations, by around ~15-25% (as of Q1), and, according to Chinese sources, underperforming by around 15-20% (as of Q1). The American sources had to revise their growth estimates a few days ago to match current import and export data, moving their estimates for a forecast of around 4% growth to the 6% in the OP.

Despite this data coming from American estimates, its clear that the attitudes of many here are based on something completely unfalsifiable - if first-party sources can't be trusted, and third-party sources aren't trusted over gut feeling, what more can be said?

"China must inevitably be failing or will fail because I want it too and data is irrelevant"

So China going to go down to 3% and below growth with a gdp per capita of around 12 000-15 000.(CHinese stats) You do understand that will cause severe instability and cries for severe reform both economical and political? Below 5 is already dangerous for autocrats because below 5% already not all sectors are expanding and some are shrinking. At 3 and below it gets really tricky unless you are either a democratic society or have high gdp/c already preferably both.

[Fasces]

ou do understand that will cause severe instability and cries for severe reform both economical and political?

I understand you hope it would; I also understand that you don't speak Chinese, don't interact with Chinese nationals, and thus don't have much of an idea of broad Chinese sentiment or a basis for that beyond 'I feel' and are frequently just completely wrong on basic, quantifiable facts about China... to say nothing of as vague a prediction as this one.

[Rancid]

@JohnRawls

I wonder how much of the decline is different nations reshoring or moving out production to other countries.

US has seen record investments in factory capacity.
Apple who was believed to basically be married to the CCP, also opened a factory (for high end products) in the US, as well as a factory (for lower end products) in India. THis isn't unique to Apple or American companies.

Also, Mexico has seen an influx of factory investment as well.

[JohnRawls]

I understand you hope it would; I also understand that you don't speak Chinese, don't interact with Chinese nationals, and thus don't have much of an idea of broad Chinese sentiment or a basis for that beyond 'I feel' and are frequently just completely wrong on basic, quantifiable facts about China... to say nothing of as vague a prediction as this one.

Sure, I admit, i don't have much contact with Chinese individuals. But I do know history and understand some things. Putin was seen as a monolith for many but opposition was low key there and discredited by he 90s memes. Didn't stop the protests to get massive support in 2010/2011 after which the insanity really started.

You yourself just prooved Zeithan sort of right. While I do not think that it will happen that fast since China was around 10 years behind Russia in the process in my opinion. While Chinese promise is more repressive compared to the Putins promise at its core. Which will slow things down.

@Rancid

Reshoring is a symptom and not the cause. The main causes are economic development of China that incomes grow and inability of authocratic regime to produce reforms constantly since they don't really have a good feedback loop like democracies have nor the population has any ability to vent its anger like we do (Elections serve important purposes).

It is not like business didn't leave Russia for the same reasons be it economic development or political risk etc.

Notice how autocratic countries stumble heavily in this middle income trap but there are examples that succeed like Korea or Japan or Eastern Europe but they are democratic. The only autocratic success that we have right now is Singapore and even at that, Fasces will argue that it is not autocratic. The rest autocrats just relied on massive oil profits or x profits of some sort.

[Beren]

These were Chinese forecasts until 2028:

So China's economic growth is expected to "normalise" in this decade, which explains the changes in its political power structure, especially if even a future stagnation is possible (in the long term).

[Fasces]

Sure, Beren. China is moving from promoting rapid growth to sustainable growth, and Xi has been calling this a period of transition for 8 years. I think we'll settle at a consistent rate of 3-5% growth for the next decade, and that's what the CPC is aiming for as they try to address the issues facing local governments relating to debt and investment as a means to reach growth targets.

I think this is where folks get lost in the weeds a bit. China sets growth targets and expects local leaders to meet them. This doesn't mean the Gdp growth is fake, but it does incentive unsustainable practices by local governments and the national government is realizing these need to be reigned in.