B0ycey wrote:Until the future materialises, its outcome is merely heresay. But Americas current foreign policy is clear for anyone to see.
We are intentionally speculating about the future of China. That's kind of the point. To me, America is largely irrelevant in this discussion.
B0ycey wrote:I suspect the size of China and wealth is really the reason I doubt they will undertake global domination actually. They have the wealth to not start wars too. They have nearly two billion people to control also. Romans collapse was in my opinion was due to over expansion. China would suffer the same problems I suspect. Not to mention the fact America can't even control all of Afghanistan.
Perhaps, I won't deny this, but this is just hearsay as well.
B0ycey wrote:Would China not learn from Americas mistakes?
There are always new mistakes to be made. They are a different culture, the global culture is changing, the global economy will be different, they have a different system, etc. etc. Overall, circumstances will be different. With different and changing global circumstances, comes room of new kinds of mistakes. The old lessons learned from America, will likely not apply and be largely irrelevant to the future.
Anyway, my grand prediction is this, which is not too different from yours:
- China will certainly become the sole global hyper-power on the planet.
- They will get involved in international affairs just as much as any power before it did. As always, there will be winners and losers, with China being on the wining side most of the time.
- This sounds harsh, but the amount of people killed in conflicts directly or indirectly connected to China won't really matter in all of this. Just as it doesn't matter all that much today.
- China will continue to lift the standard of living in China, and lift millions out of poverty as they are already doing.
- They will massively influence global pop culture through investment (they are already doing this), which could have some influence on other nations as well.
However, every gravy train comes to an end. I think the gravy train will end sometime well after my death though. Here are some of the factors I think will end that train.
Cultural change at the family level:
Basically, the one party authoritative system works well in China because that's how the family unit in China works. The family in China is very hierarchical (I see it at play with my wife and her parents all the time, I see it at play with all the Chinese folks I work with). Basically, Chinese citizens are groomed to respect (family) authority from birth. The government itself, uses "Communism" to position itself as parental figure in everyone's life (hence this is why Xi Jingpin's Communist party nationalist rhetoric works so well). Creating this sort of national culture makes it easier to keep Chinese citizens in line. When you are use to obeying your family unit, it becomes easier to obey your extended family (the government).
That said, I see this strong family culture weakening in the long (way long) term. The Chinese at home will become more individualist (relatively speaking). Newer generations will want to cast off old ways, and go out on their own as they start becoming more wealthy, travel the world, and get exposed to outside cultures. This erosion of the traditional family culture will lead to more people questioning the government itself which is just another parental figure to rebel against in their lives.
A similar thing happened in India very rapidly in the past few generations. India traditionally also has had a strong family hierarchical system. Once India started to liberalize their economically in the 90s. YOu can clearly see a difference between young and old in India. With younger Indians being much more individualistic, and much more questioning of their government. With this change, came less adherence to traditional family power structures. I know many Indians that simply opted out of an arranged marriage. The culture has shifted to question traditional family and government structures more and more. I think similar will happen in China, but much more slowly, since the economy in China is just doing so well.
As Chinese get wealthier, they will want more freedom:
1/3 of wealthy Chinese would leave China for the US, UK, Canada, etc. etc. if they had the chance:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/more-than-a-third-of-chinese-millionaires-want-to-leave-china.htmlWhy? Because they travel to the west for business and see the relative freedom we have. They like it. I personally know many Chinese that have green cards and never intend to go back to China. No matter how good things are there. The more freedom in the west, is just that much more valuable to them.
Once the crazy growth economy slows, the Communism party will die a slow death:
The kind of growth China sees year to year will slow. It's just not possible do keep this up indefinitely. This will start to limit how much and where they can invest their money. For example, they are currently lifting millions of people out of poverty yearly. They are creating jobs for people, etc. These are all benefits paid to the people from the coffers of the government. However, once the economic prosperity slows, they will not be able to pay out so many benefits. When this happens, people will start to demand freedom in place of tangible government benefits. People will start to challenge the government, and want to reform it. Let's hope it doesn't devolve into a civil war though.
Notice I didn't talk about the US above, that's because they are irrelevant in this future.
I can think of 11780 reasons Trump shouldn't be president ever again.