Trump's Dumb Economics - Page 24 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By Rugoz
#14942089
Istanbuller wrote:Current account deficit is just a part of Turkey’s economy just like it is part of many other economies.

I don’t remember any economic crisis occured due to trade imbalances.


What a silly thing to say. Google balance of payments crisis or start with this.

Istanbuller wrote:No surprise that Russia experiences exactly the same.


Russia doesn't experience the same. It's a major oil/gas exporter. The ruble was affected by the oil price collapse back in 2014, but it wasn't nearly enough to develop into a BoP crisis.
User avatar
By jimjam
#14945766
Trump, the man who has repeatedly used bankruptcy to bail from the results of fiscal irresponsibility leaving others holding the bag, is obviously using the sugar high of excessive cash/debt to enhance his image/power in the short term. The crash will come and American citizens will be holding the bag. The only questions are: how big a crash and when.

In June, The Associated Press reported on the latest International Monetary Fund survey of the U.S. economy, which concluded that as a result of Trump’s “tax cuts and expected increases in defense and domestic programs, the federal budget deficit as a percentage of the total economy will exceed 4.5 percent of G.D.P. by next year — nearly double what it was just three years ago.” Such a “big boost … has not been seen in the United States since President Lyndon Johnson in the late 1960s boosted spending on the Vietnam War at the same time it was adopting Johnson’s Great Society programs.”

Faced with so much debt, which America will not be able to grow out of, a recent I.M.F. report stated that the U.S. “may need to take politically painful steps,” such as cutting Social Security benefits and imposing higher taxes on consumers. (We’ll probably also have to limit spending on new roads, bridges and research.)

Examples of Donald abandoning tomorrow for short time gains today abound. This: You might also want to share with your kids the recent study from a group of Australian climate scientists who modeled the damage to different economies if we don’t work together to achieve the Paris climate accord’s goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature by 2100 to less than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The rise in sea level will require massive movements of people and cities, and the soaring heat levels will cause losses in agricultural productivity and declines in human health across the globe. As a result, the study found, the economic impacts of ignoring the Paris limits will be “comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s, with its global fall in G.D.P. of 15 percent, except these will occur year after year, with no way for effective redress. … Many governments around the globe won’t be able to cope and will, to put it simply, fail.”
#14948493
The official rate of unemployment in America has plunged to a remarkably low 3.8%. The Federal Reserve forecasts that the unemployment rate will reach 3.5% by the end of the year.

But the official rate hides more troubling realities: legions of college grads overqualified for their jobs, a growing number of contract workers with no job security, and an army of part-time workers desperate for full-time jobs. Almost 80% of Americans say they live from paycheck to paycheck, many not knowing how big their next one will be.

Blanketing all of this are stagnant wages and vanishing job benefits. The typical American worker now earns around $44,500 a year, not much more than what the typical worker earned in 40 years ago, adjusted for inflation. Although the US economy continues to grow, most of the gains have been going to a relatively few top executives of large companies, financiers, and inventors and owners of digital devices.
When Republicans delivered their $1.5tn tax cut last December they predicted a big wage boost for American workers. Forget it. Wages actually dropped in the second quarter of this year
User avatar
By jimjam
#14949270
Both foreign consumers and foreign producers have a lot of options to diversify away from America. Chinese producers, facing U.S. tariffs, can sell more to Europe instead; Chinese consumers, instead of paying tariffs on goods imported from America, can seek substitutes from Europe. The story for Europe is the same. But U.S. consumers and businesses won’t have comparable flexibility

But why assume that it’s a unilateral U.S. trade war against everyone? Because that’s what is happening. The Trump administration has isolated America on many fronts, and trade policy is very much one of them. Under different leadership, America and Europe might be working together to put pressure on China over things like intellectual property, but given who’s actually in charge, we’re on our own.

As Trump just found out at the U.N., the world is literally laughing at us. And it certainly doesn’t trust us, in fact is looking for ways to cut us out of various loops. This matters for a lot of things — and trade war, it turns out, is one area where go-it-alone will be costly.
#14949288
jimjam wrote:The official rate of unemployment in America has plunged to a remarkably low 3.8%. The Federal Reserve forecasts that the unemployment rate will reach 3.5% by the end of the year.

But the official rate hides more troubling realities: legions of college grads overqualified for their jobs, a growing number of contract workers with no job security, and an army of part-time workers desperate for full-time jobs. Almost 80% of Americans say they live from paycheck to paycheck, many not knowing how big their next one will be.

Blanketing all of this are stagnant wages and vanishing job benefits. The typical American worker now earns around $44,500 a year, not much more than what the typical worker earned in 40 years ago, adjusted for inflation. Although the US economy continues to grow, most of the gains have been going to a relatively few top executives of large companies, financiers, and inventors and owners of digital devices.
When Republicans delivered their $1.5tn tax cut last December they predicted a big wage boost for American workers. Forget it. Wages actually dropped in the second quarter of this year


This is the right time for the kids to strike for higher wages. I haven't heard anything about them for ages. But they are holding a royal flush. As to the university grads, they're gold if they've gone into economics, health care, etc, but lost balls in the high weeds if they've gone for degrees in under water basket weaving.

Edit

I keep forgetting about student debt. Might be better off going into plumbing...
User avatar
By jimjam
#14949296
Stormsmith wrote:I keep forgetting about student debt. Might be better off going into plumbing...


I had a plumber in my basement recently at $150 @hr. Made me nervous.
User avatar
By Ter
#14949299
About those plumbers : not everybody likes to put their hands in a clogged toilet full of shit.
Just saying...
#14949301
Ter wrote:About those plumbers : not everybody likes to put their hands in a clogged toilet full of shit.
Just saying...


Lol.

Classy as usual Ter.
User avatar
By jimjam
#14950580
At Trump’s Castle casino, where an $18.4 million bond payment was due in December 1990. Fred Trump dispatched a trusted bookkeeper to Atlantic City with checks to buy $3.5 million in casino chips without placing a bet. With this ruse — an illegal loan under New Jersey gaming laws, resulting in a $65,000 civil penalty — Donald Trump narrowly avoided defaulting on his bonds.

Fred Trump spent $15.5 million to buy a 7.5 percent stake in Trump Palace, his son’s condo tower rising on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. Four years later, tax returns and financial statements show, Fred Trump sold that stake for just $10,000. The buyer, other documents indicate, was his son.


Here's the man who gave us Donald. I can tell just by lookin at him that he would never tell a lie. Looks like they're giving each other awards :lol: .
Image
#14952707
Donald's destruction to the American economy will, in the long run, be the most damaging aspect of his "legacy". His short term strategy has been rather obvious. Flood the economy with borrowed cash. Trade long term stability/growth for a short term high. Not unlike a drug addict, this will feel good for awhile and present the illusion of success for Donald. Very similar to his economic strategies in his private life. Not unlike his private ventures and the addict's high the party WILL end, guaranteed.

This is what one would expect when you slash corporate taxes, give massive tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans for no reason and provide no money for infrastructure, healthcare or to start to pay down the national debt. Don't forget a trade war with our allies and a unnecessary military hardware buildup.This may be a blip or the beginning of Trumps Republican economic policy's taking effect. Well done Donald, that was easy.

Who would ever think that someone who went through multiple bankruptcies even after inheriting $140 M from his family would not mess up an entire economy of a nation that was already in good shape?
User avatar
By Hong Wu
#14952713
I know my username checks out but I do worry sometimes that Trump will push China too far, they are a big part of the world economic system and a lot more powerful than North Korea or Iran.
User avatar
By jimjam
#14952750
Hong Wu wrote:I know my username checks out but I do worry sometimes that Trump will push China too far, they are a big part of the world economic system and a lot more powerful than North Korea or Iran.

Businessmen prefer stability and predictableness ……. hardly Trump characteristics. If they sense a lack of stability and predictableness it is on to plan B …… something like gold bars.
#14952756
I feel the most damaging aspect will be his utter lack of concern for the environment which will have world wide impact. Air knows no borders.
User avatar
By jimjam
#14952834
Stormsmith wrote:I feel the most damaging aspect will be his utter lack of concern for the environment which will have world wide impact. Air knows no borders.

Yes, I agree and stand corrected. His effort to lower or remove protections to the environment so that big corporations' profits increase at the expense of Mother Nature will leave a devastated planet for our children and grandchildren to deal with. His recent comment that he did not believe there was global warming because it snowed last year was abysmally stupid and terrifying.
#14952837
I have to say, one thing that Trump has actually successfully done in terms of economics, is get his voter base onboard with NAFTA (or rather, USMCA as it's now called.). This is important in order for these morons to not stop further integration of the world economy.

Hear me out:
-Trumps dumb voters hated NAFTA because they didn't understand it. They didn't understand that they would lose their jobs either way anyway.

-Trump agreed and said NAFTA is stupid. He kills it to "renegotiate" a trade deal.

-The updated trade deal now called USMCA is basically NAFTA, just updated for modern times. For example, NAFTA didn't address internet commerce where as USMCA does. All in all, people are saying it's really just an updated NAFTA which is something that should have happened anyway.

- Now, his moron voters think that USMCA is somehow going to help them more than NAFTA did. In truth it won't be much different.

- Trump has also mentioned he wants to start doing more trade deals with other nations. This is actually good in terms of countering China's dominance. If (I know, big if) you can get a de-facto trade block going, you can finally gain some leverage in trade with China.

- Because his moron voters seem to believe USMCA is good for them, they will likely go along with these other trade deals, which ultimately is probably good for the US and the rest of the non-China world.

Maybe he is a genius? :eek: :eek: :eek:
#14952893
Rancid wrote:I have to say, one thing that Trump has actually successfully done in terms of economics, is get his voter base onboard with NAFTA (or rather, USMCA as it's now called.). This is important in order for these morons to not stop further integration of the world economy.

Hear me out:
-Trumps dumb voters hated NAFTA because they didn't understand it. They didn't understand that they would lose their jobs either way anyway.

-Trump agreed and said NAFTA is stupid. He kills it to "renegotiate" a trade deal.

-The updated trade deal now called USMCA is basically NAFTA, just updated for modern times. For example, NAFTA didn't address internet commerce where as USMCA does. All in all, people are saying it's really just an updated NAFTA which is something that should have happened anyway.

- Now, his moron voters think that USMCA is somehow going to help them more than NAFTA did. In truth it won't be much different.

- Trump has also mentioned he wants to start doing more trade deals with other nations. This is actually good in terms of countering China's dominance. If (I know, big if) you can get a de-facto trade block going, you can finally gain some leverage in trade with China.

- Because his moron voters seem to believe USMCA is good for them, they will likely go along with these other trade deals, which ultimately is probably good for the US and the rest of the non-China world.

Maybe he is a genius? :eek: :eek: :eek:

He's a lightning-rod, is what he is. He diverts American working-class fury into safe channels, where it can't damage the neo-liberal globalist world order. Everything he has done has been for the benefit of that globalist world order and the elite who benefit from it, rather than for the benefit of his voter base. Fortunately for him his voter base are generally moronic, as you pointed out, and likely won't notice this. Lol.
User avatar
By Beren
#14952895
Rancid wrote:Maybe he is a genius? :eek: :eek: :eek:

I'd rather say he's a talent. Maybe he doesn't know much about politics, but he feels it, which is the opposite of Hillary Clinton.
User avatar
By Zagadka
#14952950
Stormsmith wrote:I feel the most damaging aspect will be his utter lack of concern for the environment which will have world wide impact. Air knows no borders.

The sea level could raise a meter in a day and they would still not believe in the human impact on the environment (or alternatively, are so short sighted and ignorant that they balance their income against a sustainable environment).
#14952953
Wow, the stock market is trending down.

From cnbc:

Dow tumbles over 500 points, bringing 2-day losses to more than 1,300 points

Investors fled riskier assets like stocks and loaded up on traditional safe havens like bonds and gold.The Dow fell as much as 698.97 points at its lows of the day, after dropping 831 points on Wednesday."It's a momentum correction, not a portfolio correction," says Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners. "While we have a bias to believe 2008 could happen again, I don't think this is the case."


He is bad for the stock market.
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