- 23 Jul 2011 23:11
#13762800
Big surprise, Americans don't have much confidence in the economy :
Economic confidence was down, down, down this week, and therein, for now at least, lies the tale of the next presidential election.
For the third time this month, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past two years. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell another point on Friday to 67.7. That’s the lowest level of confidence recorded since July 2009.
The Rasmussen Investor Index, which similarly measures daily investor confidence, fell on Saturday to the lowest level since December 2009.
News from the housing sector is equally grim. Belief among Americans that purchasing a home is a family’s best investment is weaker than ever. Only 43% believe buying a home is the best investment a family can make, down from 47% last month and the lowest level of confidence in home-buying ever recorded. As recently as last September, 60% felt that way.
Confidence that home values will improve over the next year also has fallen to the lowest level ever found. Just 11% now believe the value of their home will go up over the next 12 months. Prior to this survey, the number who expected their home values to rise during the next year ranged from 15% to 31%.
For the second month in a row, fewer than half of America’s homeowners believe the value of their home is worth more than the amount they still owe on their mortgage. That's just the third time this finding has fallen below 50% since late 2008.
After falling to a two-year low last month, the number of Americans who expect to pay higher interest rates next year has returned to levels found earlier in 2011. Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe they will be paying higher interest rates in a year’s time, up eight points from June. Prior to last month, this finding ranged from 50% to 59% since July 2009.
Only 21% of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction. This matches the lowest level measured during Barack Obama’s presidency.
President Obama now earns his lowest level of support yet against a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical 2012 election matchup. A generic Republican picks up 47% of the vote, while the president gets 41%.
The race is closer when the Republican nominee has a name. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs essentially even with the president now. In April, Obama held a five-point edge over Romney.
The president enjoys a modest 44% to 39% lead in a matchup with Texas Governor Rick Perry. If Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the GOP nominee, Obama leads 46% to 39%. Congressman Ron Paul may be a long shot to win the Republican presidential nomination, but he runs competitively with the president for now. Paul picks up 37% of the vote, while the president earns 41%. Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, trails Obama by five, 44% to 39%.
But the real story in the numbers is that the president continues to earn between 41% and 49% of the vote no matter which Republican is mentioned as a potential opponent. This suggests that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent more than anything else. If the economy substantially improves before November 2012, the president will be heavily favored to win reelection. If the opposite happens and the country endures a double-dip recession, just about any Republican challenger would be favored. If the economy stays as it is today, the race could be very competitive.
A good measure of the president’s reelection prospects is his Job Approval rating among likely voters. His final vote total is likely to be very close to his final Job Approval figures.
The crushing federal budget deficit and its impact on the economy are at center stage these days in Washington, D.C. where the president and Congress are wrangling over how to avoid defaulting on the nation’s debt. But most voters are worried that a deal to increase the government’s debt ceiling will raise taxes too much and won't cut spending enough.
Even if the president and Congress can agree on a plan to raise the debt ceiling that raises taxes on the wealthy and cuts spending, just 45% of voters think it’s even somewhat likely that the government will actually cut as much as it agrees to cut. Seventy-five percent (75%) also expect the deal to lead to a middle class tax hike.
Defense spending, one of the near untouchables in the federal budget in the past, is sure to be on the chopping block as Congress looks for ways to cut the deficit. Nearly one-half of Americans now think the United States can make major cuts in defense spending without putting the country in danger. They believe even more strongly that there’s no risk in cutting way back on what America spends to defend other countries.
Most voters don’t care much for the way either political party is performing in the debt ceiling debate. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove of the way the president and congressional Democrats are acting, but 53% also disapprove of how congressional Republicans are handling the debate.
Voters now see congressional Republicans as slightly more partisan than their Democratic counterparts and are more pessimistic about the overall level of partisanship in Washington than they have been in nearly a year. Still, Republicans lead Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week since June 2009.
The majority of voters continue to favor repeal of the national health care law and believe it will increase the federal deficit at the very time the president and Congress are trying to find ways to make significant cuts in government spending. Voters also expect the law to make health care costs go up.
After all, 69% of voters believe greater free market competition between insurance companies would do more to reduce health care costs than more government regulation. If the government’s got to be involved in health care decisions, most voters think it’ll be cheaper if it’s states rather than the feds.
In other surveys last week:
-- Two-out-of-three (66%) Likely U.S. Voters think gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of illegal immigrants already living in America when it comes to immigration reform policy.
--More voters continue to favor tougher laws against employers who hire illegal immigrants than against landlords who rent to them. But support for strong sanctions against both employers and landlords is at record highs.
-- With summer vacation in full swing, 56% of Americans now believe children need to spend more time in school. But most oppose a 12-month school calendar.
-- The U.S. Department of Energy says new light bulbs will cost more up front but save money in the long run. That, plus expected energy savings, has led to government regulations that will effectively ban the sale of traditional light bulbs starting next year. If the new bulbs work as advertised, however, 67% of Americans believe it is at least somewhat likely that consumers will buy them, even if traditional bulbs are still available.
-- Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Americans are willing to help defend South Korea militarily if it is attacked. This makes South Korea one of the few treaty partners that most Americans are willing to assist militarily.
-- Florida and Missouri have already passed measures that require some form of drug testing during the welfare application process, with Florida now requiring all applicants to be tested. A majority of voters nationwide agree with automatically testing all welfare applicants for illegal drug use.
Society cannot exist, unless a controlling power upon will and appetite be placed somewhere; and the less of it there is within, the more there must be without.
—Edmund Burke
—Edmund Burke