Beren wrote:Well @Crantag, I don't care much about what they say. They have to say it's an economic policy, of course, like they invented Reaganomics. And everybody discussed whether it trickles down indeed!
Fair enough.
I somewhat agree with the chicken and egg problem here. But also, the discussion is really just about potentialities, and sometimes reality intervenes in economic events. So we don't know what will happen as time goes on, but I see a dangerous trajectory. I think you basically said the same, with the gambling comment.
In any case, your interpretation could be a correct one, and that is not a possibility which I have dismissed.
Edit: @Beren , I've just noticed that this is essentially just what I said in my first reply to you
Crantag wrote:I do think they certainly know what they are doing. Large deficits are in line with a weak dollar. That said, it may be more than a cynical whim to suggest that the eventuality is driving the supposed policy, rather than the other way around. But, us rubes aren't privy to any of this sort of information.
That's what you called a 'conspiracy theory', but what I was really getting at was basically exactly what you've said here. They are declaring a weak dollar because it's on the horizon; so therefore, they are trying to get a leg up with the announcement.
The critical take away for me though is that this circumstance--Trump owning a weak dollar--has predictive power over the future of the dollar. Now, the writing is most certainly already on the wall. Pronouncements are still taken as significant.
In and of itself the comments are really a non-topic. The writing is, after all, on the wall. The venue I suppose lent the air of acquiescence to a new norm.
Even this isn't an issue.
For me, it boils down to, if you were an odds maker, and you figured there was .95 probability of things tending one way, the probability was probably moved upward a small notch. It is what it is, high finance isn't the concern of peasants like us. But markets respond to these sorts of information. Well and good, once again. At the end of the day, seeking to understand can have defensive utility. Or, can just be barroom babble. Whichever mine may be I cannot say.