Trump's Dumb Economics - Page 15 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By jimjam
#14920339
One Degree wrote:Most give October 29, 1929 as the starting date. There wasn’t any one thing that was going to magically turn around the forces already in place.

EVEN when desperate, Wall Street bankers are not given to grovelling. But in June 1930 Thomas Lamont, a partner at J.P. Morgan, came close. “I almost went down on my knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot Tariff,” he recalled. “That Act intensified nationalism all over the world.”

In fact, few economists think the Smoot-Hawley tariff (as it is most often known) was one of the principal causes of the Depression. Worse mistakes were made, largely out of a misplaced faith in the gold standard and balanced budgets. America's tariffs were already high, and some other countries were already increasing their own.

Did Hoover's tariff bill cause the Great Depression. Of course not. Did it excalibrate an already dire situation? Does 2+2=4? :?:
#14920343
Atlantis wrote:Don't they teach you anything at school? It's been established fact ever since that the recession was cause by protectionist measures.


No, my education was not so simplistic. Perhaps you need a wider range of views.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
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By Zamuel
#14920356
Atlantis wrote:Don't they teach you anything at school? It's been established fact ever since that the recession was cause by protectionist measures.

I guess you weren't paying attention that day either … (The book of Zamuel: 11.9) The great depression was "Triggered" by protectionist factors. It was caused by an insolvent (speculative) investment bubble.

Zam :angel:
#14927508
The so-called yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done before with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street.

The yield curve is basically the difference between interest rates on short-term United States government bonds, say, two-year Treasury notes, and long-term government bonds, like 10-year Treasury notes.

As in all market moves, perceptions of its significance mean the yield curve can sometimes become a feedback loop.

Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. Curve inversions have “correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession,” the bank’s researchers wrote in March.

Even if it hasn’t happened yet, the move in that direction has Wall Street’s attention.

If enough investors begin to grow concerned about a recession, they will likely put more and more money into the safety of long-term government bonds. That buying binge which would likely help flatten, or invert, the yield curve.

Then people will write articles about the curve sending a stronger signal on recession. And that could, in turn, drive even more people to buy into long-term bonds. Rinse. Repeat."
---------------------

Let's all be honest for a second: the feedback loop is that our economy - like our nation - is being headed by a buffoon. The tax cut was a horrendous idea, a solution to a problem that didn't exist. Obama's economy was humming along just fine. If we didn't have a complete fool at the helm we'd have nothing to worry about.

Let's not complicate things: our problem is the guy running the show.

Hey MAGA-heads! Watch your jobs disappear! Watch your 401k tank! So much winning? Thank Trump and the Republican minions who prop him up.
#14927581
Really? You are cheering for the economy to crash so you can blame Trump? You don’t find that a little irrational?
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By Beren
#14927586
jimjam wrote:Let's all be honest for a second: the feedback loop is that our economy - like our nation - is being headed by a buffoon. The tax cut was a horrendous idea, a solution to a problem that didn't exist.

The tax cut would have happened under any Republican president unfortunately.
#14927589
One Degree wrote:Really? You are cheering for the economy to crash so you can blame Trump? You don’t find that a little irrational?

It's irrational and stupid. There is politics here insofar as it is based upon numbers that I get from Wall Street. Economics from politicians is self serving hot air (hence Trump's dumb economics which is based largely on self serving hot air …. not hard #'s). Economics from Wall Street is the real deal. Folks on Wall street read the #'s and put their own money where it is either a)in a place where they can make more or b) where it is safe. Hopefully for them A) and b).

Did you get the part about the yield curve? Do you understand that if short term interest rates go beyond a certain point, businessmen cease to borrow/invest? That trillions in borrowing are a key driver of the economy?

BTW, Donald's easy to win trade war is already hitting America's streets. Harley Davidson is moving factories to Europe and, here in Maine, shipping lobsters to China is a big portion of the business which has ….. ended. Stay tuned.
#14927592
jimjam wrote:It's irrational and stupid. There is politics here insofar as it is based upon numbers that I get from Wall Street. Economics from politicians is self serving hot air (hence Trump's dumb economics which is based largely on self serving hot air …. not hard #'s). Economics from Wall Street is the real deal. Folks on Wall street read the #'s and put their own money where it is either a)in a place where they can make more or b) where it is safe. Hopefully for them A) and b).

Did you get the part about the yield curve? Do you understand that if short term interest rates go beyond a certain point, businessmen cease to borrow/invest? That trillions in borrowing are a key driver of the economy?

BTW, Donald's easy to win trade war is already hitting America's streets. Harley Davidson is moving factories to Europe and, here in Maine, shipping lobsters to China is a big portion of the business which has ….. ended. Stay tuned.


I glanced through it. Predictions are not reality and easily prone to political bias. I see nothing to be concerned about.
#14927615
One Degree wrote:I glanced through it. Predictions are not reality and easily prone to political bias. I see nothing to be concerned about.


As I said, economics mouthed by politicians are self serving and certainly are not, to use your term, reality.

Do you have the slightest idea what a yield curve is or is this too esoteric for you?

Cool …. no offense but i'll go with the Wall Street Journal not you. You can put your money on the economic genius who declared bankruptcy 3X.
Last edited by jimjam on 26 Jun 2018 01:35, edited 1 time in total.
#14927619
jimjam wrote:Do you have the slightest idea what a yield curve is or is this too esoteric for you?

Cool …. no offense but i'll go with the Wall Street Journal not you. You can put your money on the economic genius who declared bankruptcy 3X.


No, is it something like the stock market crash after Trump’s election? :)
#14927622
One Degree wrote:No, is it something like the stock market crash after Trump’s election? :)


If you do not even grasp the meaning of a yield curve you never should have commented because ipso facto your comments would be based upon political hot air and ignorance.
#14927623
jimjam wrote:If you do not even grasp the meaning of a yield curve you never should have commented because ipso facto your comments would be based upon political hot air and ignorance.


A thousand pardons. My education came when reality was important. I forgot some guys mathematical scribbling were all that mattered. Educate me, is the ‘yield curve’ a 100% accurate predictor?

Edit: @jimjam
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... recessions
It appears the yield curve was the same method used to predict the crash a year ago???
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By jimjam
#14927640
One Degree wrote:It appears the yield curve was the same method used to predict the crash a year ago???
One Degree wrote: Educate me, is the ‘yield curve’ a 100% accurate predictor?

Nothing is 100% accurate in predicting. You are always playing the odds. Yield curve has a history of being an excellent, but not perfect, predictor. Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. Curve inversions have “correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession,” the bank’s researchers wrote in March.

Today's yield curve is not yet in the danger zone but it has been moving closer of late.

I read your article and do not see where a "crash" let alone a recession was predicted a year ago. What they said was what I said above. The curve is moving in a troublesome direction.

Off topic ……….. what state do you live in? I am a Maine citizen who hides from Winter in Florida.
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By jimjam
#14927646
Presently the economy is doing well. A significant function of economic study is constantly attempting to do the near impossible …. predicting the future. Why? Investors strive to be the "first in". To put their $ in a safe and profitable place before everyone is reading about it in Time magazine. While it is impossible to predict with complete certainty, the science of economics has some really good markers based upon history. I speculate that our current good economy is on thin ice because:
1) The current closing trend of the yield curve. See above where we beat it to death.
2) The ever widening gap between the haves and the have nots. The have nots are vastly more numerous than the haves. If the have nots have ever decreasing wealth ……. they spend less. Spending is obviously a prime driver of the economy.
3) The stock market may be said to be experiencing irrational exuberance. The long bull market has flattened recently. Ups and downs with essentially a flat performance.
4) The trade war seems to no longer be looming. It is here and growing along with unpredictability and destabilization.
5)Investors like predictability. Predictability in today's economic climate is becoming an increasingly scarce item. When unpredictability is rampant, investors invest less. Investing is another major driver of the economy.
6)Economics is a very emotional exercise. A single distressing event, while not a game changer in itself, can become a game changer not unlike someone yelling, "FIRE" in a crowded theater with the resulting rush for the exit.

This is a good time to have your wealth in conservative and safe places although, aside from cash, it may be too late.
#14927671
@jimjam
I live in Greenwood, Indiana.
My skepticism is based upon believing we live in a new world where everything is politicized. This means every piece of information has to be carefully scrutinized and all predictions assumed to be fake news.
If the other side is lying, I would be a fool not to think so is my side. It is just harder to see the lies from people I want to agree with.
#14927731
Trump famously declared that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Never mind the goodness issue: It’s already becoming apparent that the “easy to win” part is delusional. Other countries won’t quickly give in to U.S. demands, in part because those demands are incoherent — Trump is demanding that Europe end the “horrific” tariffs it doesn’t actually impose, while the Chinese can’t even figure out what the Trump administration wants, with officials calling America “capricious.” Add in the enormous amount of ill will Trump has generated around the world, and the idea that America is going to get major concessions anytime soon is deeply implausible.

We will start seeing villains under every bed. It will attribute the downsides of trade conflict not to its own actions, but to George Soros and the deep state. I’m not sure how they can work MS-13 into it, but they’ll surely try.

The point is that the politics of trade war will probably end up looking like Trump politics in general: a search for innocent people to demonize.
#14927747
This is about the best thread I've seen in these parts.

I'm persuaded that jimjam is on to something.

I think there's a high threshold of tolerance though for American bullshit, because America is so willing to buy so much crap. Pragmatism is predominant everywhere, and America is still desired as a customer.

Globalism has opened up the American consumer culture to production wherever (e.g., China).

But, when push comes shove comes back. That is to say, when there is some kind of action, reactions do occur, as well.
#14927751
The United States is the world's second biggest importer. Main imports are: capital goods (29 percent) and consumer goods (26 percent). Others include: Industrial Supplies (24 percent); automotive vehicles, parts and engines (15 percent); foods, feeds and beverages (5 percent). Shipments from China represent 19 percent of the total imports followed by Canada (14.5 percent), Mexico (12 percent), Japan (6 percent), and Germany (5 percent). This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Imports - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Imports - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2018.


It appears the US provides about 75% of it’s own needs in every area. It would be difficult to do serious damage to the US through trade. The EU is the world’s largest importer.
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