[Atlantis]

However, they must be on the rise for a reason.

The simple and obvious reason is that China was underdeveloped before, which resulted in rapid growth during the catching-up phase after the reigns were loosened somewhat. However, they are going to run into problems from now on.

It's also naive to believe that China is a model for other countries. The willingness to work hard for achieving something is far less pronounced in other countries then in the Far East. They are not better, they are just more hard-working. It's as simple as that.

If Orban decided to follow the Chinese model, he would ruin the country even more.

But I guess it'll take anther generation or two for East Europeans to understand that. That's the terrible heritage of communist rule.

Neither Putin nor Xi is an example for Europe, on the contrary, to succeed, they'll have to follow Europe.

In the meantime the trade war is heating up nicely:


EU warns Trump: Retaliation for car import tariffs may cost US $300bn

Warning is first time European Commission has set out detailed response to tariffs threat
about 12 hours ago

US president Donald Trump’s threat to hit car imports with punitive tariffs risks sparking global retaliation against as much as $300 billion of US products, Brussels has warned.

The warning is the first time that the European Commission, in a written submission to the US Department of Commerce seen by the Financial Times, has set out a detailed response to Mr Trump’s threat to slam punitive tariffs on imported vehicles, with EU capitals increasingly convinced that the unpredictable US president will act soon.

Mr Trump on Sunday said that the EU was “as bad” as China when it came to the way European countries traded with the US. In an interview with Fox News he dismissed suggestions that his attacks on the EU were counterproductive and that he should instead strengthen relations with European countries to tackle the Chinese trade issue together.

“The European Union is possibly as bad as China, just smaller . . . It is terrible what they do to us,” Mr Trump said, citing “the car situation”.

Brussels said that an American investigation into whether foreign cars and parts posed a national security risk could plunge the global economy into a full-on trade war, harming employment in the US car sector, which accounts for more than four million jobs.

EU’s exasperation

In a sign of the EU’s exasperation at Mr Trump’s confrontational trade policy, which has already stoked tensions over steel and aluminium, the document said the move “could result in yet another disregard of international law” by the US. It said imposing the car tariffs would not be accepted by the international community and would “damage further the reputation” of the US.

Mr Trump said in a tweet last month that European car manufacturers faced punitive duties if barriers to US exports were “not soon broken down”.

General Motors was on Friday the latest carmaker to warn against Mr Trump’s threatened car tariffs, saying it would raise the prices of its vehicles by thousands of dollars, undermine its competitiveness and lead to US job losses.

BMW, the German carmaker that exports 70 per cent of vehicles from its largest plant in South Carolina, also warned that it could cut investment and jobs if the tariffs are imposed.

This week global carmakers warned that imposing the tariffs on car imports would raise prices of imported vehicles by up to $6,000 per car and lift prices of locally made cars.

EU officials stressed that no decision had yet been made on how to retaliate. But the document warned that the EU and other major economies would be “likely” to apply countermeasures to “a significant volume of trade”, with as much as $294 billion –- accounting for 19 per cent of US goods exports in 2017 – potentially in the line of fire. The measures could apply “across sectors of the US economy”, the document said.

The $300 billion figure identified by the EU is roughly equivalent to the value of US imports of cars and parts, which last year hit $330 billion. It would drop were the EU, or others, to only retaliate against part of the US tariffs, an approach that Brussels used last month to respond to US duties on the metals sector with tariffs imposed on products including Harley-Davidson motorcycles. EU trade officials have said that various options are being explored.

The US commerce department announced in May that it was starting a so-called “Section 232” investigation into passenger vehicles and parts to see whether imports were eroding US industry to the point where they threatened the country’s “internal economy”, including the development of “cutting-edge technologies” and the preservation of a skilled workforce.

Officials indicated at the time that the US was considering introducing 25 per cent tariffs, although Mr Trump’s tweet mentioned 20 per cent.

This week global carmakers warned that imposing the tariffs on car imports would raise prices of imported vehicles by up to $6,000 per car and lift prices of locally made cars.

‘Own goal’

The commission document said that, according to its “internal analysis” and other expert studies, the tariffs would be an “own goal” for the US economy even before other economies retaliated. The interconnectedness of the car industry, and its high degree of regional specialisation, mean that imposing additional 25 per cent tariffs on imports would cause a hit to US gross domestic product “in the order of” $13 billion–$14billion, according to the document.

The paper, submitted by the EU’s representation in Washington, also underlines that EU-owned car companies account for more than a quarter of US car production, with plants “across the country, including in South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee” – all strongly Republican states – and that the majority of this production was for export.

“As markets would become fragmented, US costs would rise, US automobile exports would suffer, US consumers would pay higher prices, and jobs would be lost,” the document said.

The EU has also firmly rejected Mr Trump’s use of national security arguments to justify restrictive trade measures, saying it has no basis in fact and risks undercutting the entire rules-based system of international trade.

“This development harms trade, growth and jobs in the US and abroad, weakens the bonds with friends and allies, and shifts the attention away from the shared strategic challenges that genuinely threaten the market-based western economic model,” the document said.

The document, submitted to US authorities on Friday, marks the latest step in the EU’s campaign to get Mr Trump to step back from the brink before it is too late.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU commission president, is set to travel to Washington this month for a meeting with Mr Trump, and EU officials will take part in a public hearing organised by the Department of Commerce on July 19th.

EU leaders at a summit in Brussels last week warned that the EU would respond to all US actions “of a clear protectionist agenda”.

This must be the first time in history a national leader has deliberately tried to tank his own economy together with the global economy. Is he trying to torch the US economy like Nero torched Rome? Is this just a personal mental defect or are we taking about a society that's basically dysfunctional?

The problem for Harley is that they are an American name, and Trump bashing them will cost them more in brand equity than they will save in tariffs. Their major market is in the US, not Europe.

I think this says a lot about the dumb economics of the Trumpists. That's equally erroneous to what @One Degree keeps on repeating here.

The modern economy cannot be run like a feudal fiefdom where the absolutist ruler arbitrarily decides about who's put to death and who lives. No, that's not how it works at all.

The US, more than any other country, depends on the inflow of money by FDI to finance its double deficit. Once investors lose confidence in the US because they never know when Trump might punish them, the US economy is going to tank. The economy runs on trust and predictability, once that is destroyed, you might as well go to live in Venezuela.

[Beren]

If Orban decided to follow the Chinese model, he would ruin the country even more.

It's not the Chinese model he follows, Orban would never believe in collective leadership , and it's not really a party rule either. It's an authoritarian regime with a hegemon on the top, which is him, it's more like Erdogan's Turkey actually. However, Orban is smarter and more subtle, so his system resembles Russia more perhaps. He doesn't care about competence that much too, it's just an authoritarian kleptocracy. I'd rather say everything that has been happening in Hungary since its collapse is a terrible heritage of Austria-Hungary, unlike the others we've never really finished with it basically.

Also, I don't think China should be a role model, but the Chinese model obviously has its merits too, even if you keep arrogantly denying them.

[Atlantis]

It's not the Chinese model he follows, Orban would never believe in collective leadership , and it's not really a party rule either. It's an authoritarian regime with a hegemon on the top, which is him, it's more like Erdogan's Turkey actually.

Is there really any difference? I doubt it. Erdogan needs the AKP and other power-players in Turkey. Putin has his oligarchs to support him. Assad has the Baath party to support him. Xi has managed to rise to the top in the CCP apparatus. He depends on the powerful leaders of the party for support. I'm sure Orban has his gang of kleptocrats who support him. It's all the same with some local differences.

And all of it is corrupt and ultimately dysfunctional. Asians just work harder and can endure more pain.

Also, I don't think China should be a role model, but the Chinese model obviously has its merits too, even if you keep arrogantly denying them.

What's that, silly? You don't know what you are talking about.

[Beren]

What's that, silly? You don't know what you are talking about.

So you just intensify your arrogance? It must be a sign of real self-confidence and superiority.

I've actually mentioned one, but you don't care to listen it seems.

[Atlantis]

So you just intensify your arrogance? It must be a sign of real self-confidence and superiority.

I've actually mentioned one, but you don't care to listen it seems.

I really don't get what you are on about. I studied Chinese 40 years ago and have always admired Chinese culture more than most, but that doesn't mean I have to be blind.

[Beren]

I really don't get what you are on about. I studied Chinese 40 years ago and have always admired Chinese culture more than most, but that doesn't mean I have to be blind.

Sure you don't. If you don't want to be blind, would you open your eyes, please, if you can? The EU and Germany won't be the head of Eurasia, they'll be the tail and they won't wag the dog. Maybe you could see that if you could forget your sense of superiority, arrogance and ridiculous claim to lead the world or Eurasia at least for a moment.

[jimjam]

We'll just have to raise tariffs even higher. Blowing up the establishment is the only way to correct their arrogance. It may lead to depression and war, but it will definitely humble these assholes.

I think germ warfare would be cool. But, ideally, thousands of middle and lower class people, who are being sucked dry by Trump And The Plutocrats (great name for a rock band BTW), storming Donald's golf courses and evacuating their bowels on the greens . This may, just may, correct Donald's arrogance.

[Rancid]

Oddly enough, although I think the trade war Trump is getting us into is bad overall. It seems as though a trade war of this nature is actually good for the company I work for.

[One Degree]

I think germ warfare would be cool. But, ideally, thousands of middle and lower class people, who are being sucked dry by Trump And The Plutocrats (great name for a rock band BTW), storming Donald's golf courses and evacuating their bowels on the greens . This may, just may, correct Donald's arrogance.

These are the ‘rational’ people you want to decide the future of the country?

[blackjack21]

The US, more than any other country, depends on the inflow of money by FDI to finance its double deficit. Once investors lose confidence in the US because they never know when Trump might punish them, the US economy is going to tank. The economy runs on trust and predictability, once that is destroyed, you might as well go to live in Venezuela.

This FDI equation is precisely why Trump is president. The neoliberal/neoconservative cabal lied to the working class over 30 years. They simply have no credibility anymore. That is why so many of the anti-Trump screeds are about "Trump lies all the time." The purpose is to try to destroy his credibility among his base. Others think I view Trump as some sort of savior. I don't. I view him as a satchel charge I can throw in the estblishment's bunker. He's very effective at doing what I want him to do.

Much of the US economy will not tank. For example, we do not need iPhones or Amazon Alexas. That's all just mindless spyware for a surveillance state that can't do anything useful, because it has been brainwashed itself to avoid identifying their primary enemy; or alternatively, hiding the fact that they have identified their own population as their enemy. Crops will still grow. Cars will still get made. International trade will be a lot more disruptive, which is totally cool. Labor arbitrageurs have had it easy for a long time. Sticking something in their ass is fun and entertaining.

[jimjam]

These are the ‘rational’ people you want to decide the future of the country?

"Rationality" is obviously an impediment to getting elected in America. Ie: let's build a 2000 mile wall on our border for $25,000,000,000 or $40,000,000,000 that won't work. Just one more thing to make America the world's laughingstock.

[Zamuel]

This must be the first time in history a national leader has deliberately tried to tank his own economy together with the global economy. Is he trying to torch the US economy like Nero torched Rome?

No, he's Putin's Puppet … He's doing to the US what the Russians have been trying to do since WWII. You just know he's going to come out of this new Russian Summit with some sort of "Sanctions" deal in hand. Crippling the USA and the free world is his goal. "Rationality" ? - only from Putin's POV.

Zam

[Atlantis]

Europe needs to do 2 things to win the trade war — simultaneously damaging the US economy and angering Trump

European companies could benefit from President Donald Trump's escalating trade war, analysts at Citi wrote to clients.

"Winning the trade war, albeit not from the sidelines anymore, remains a real opportunity for Europe," Citi said.

European corporates can steal market share from American firms in markets like China, while also benefitting in bilateral trade agreements as US influence wanes.

This could lead to both anger from Trump, and damage to the US economy.

As the growing trade war between the Trump administration and the rest of the world threatens to boil over, Europe and European companies stand to be the biggest beneficiaries — if they play their cards right.

That's according to analysts at Citi, who believe the burgeoning conflict provides "a real opportunity" for Europe.

Citi's weekly European economics note, compiled by a team led by Christian Schultz argues that rising tariffs put in place by the Trump administration could allow European corporates to gain a competitive advantage over their American counterparts.

"Winning the trade war, albeit not from the sidelines anymore, remains a real opportunity for Europe," the team wrote to clients late last week.

The team's thesis centers on two arguments.

First, the belief that while tariffs will hurt the businesses of European companies in the US, it will allow them to compete more aggressively with American firms in markets like China.

Second, that the EU can take advantage of the USA damaging its international reputation and become the global trading partner of choice for major economies.

"European companies compete with US firms in key markets such as China and could win market share at the expense of their American counterparts," Citi's analysts wrote.

As the US is placing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China has retaliated in kind, it is likely that Chinese businesses would be more inclined to do business with European companies. This in turn would boost the profitability of major European corporates, which could also have an overall positive impact on gross domestic product.

That same favorability, Citi notes, would likely impact European Union negotiations over trade with economies all over the world. If the US looks as though it is closing itself off from the rest of the world in terms of trade, it is unlikely that states will be keen to strike deals with them.

By positioning itself as a bastion of free trade, the EU could benefit by gaining favorable terms in trade partnerships.

As Citi puts it: "The EU's bargaining power in free-trade talks with third countries rises as the US is no longer an attractive alternative partner."

If these outcomes were to materialize, there would likely be two major consequences.

First, it is likely that European businesses stealing market share from US companies would have a negative impact on those companies in terms of profitability, but also the wider US economy, and potentially even global growth.

"In the event of a further noticeable deterioration in trade tensions that could curtail the pace of growth in global trade, our external demand forecasts would likely be revised down," Citi's team wrote.

Secondly, the move would likely anger President Trump, potentially leading to an even greater escalation of the conflict. Trump has not responded well to perceived slights on his policy, with his angry reaction to news that Harley Davidson would move some production out of the USA as a result of his tariffs a prime example.

Harley Davidson's move represented a slap in the face for Trump. The president had hosted company executives at the White House and repeatedly praised the company for building its motorcycles in America.

Trump has in the past shown willingness to punish those he perceives to slight him, so European companies benefitting from the tariffs could face a similar treatment, possibly being on the end of even more tariffs in the USA.

To beat a narcissistic man-child in a trade war is really not a big challenge.

If things do heat up, earnings of US multinationals will be taxed in the Europe and most other places would probably follow. That could send Wall Street into a bear market and the US economy into the doll-drums.

I don't think Europe will deliberately escalate the conflict because a global recession will put millions out off work even if we can take market share from the yanks. But appeasement obviously won't work with Trump. Best to hit him hard were it hurts early on. If it doesn't bring him to his senses, the GOP may reign him in.

International opinion plus half of America is likely to cheer us on.

[jimjam]

The U.S. is now behaving in ways that could all too easily lead to a breakdown of the whole trading system and a drastic, disruptive reduction in world trade.

Yet Trump appears to believe that the whole world will bow down to American economic power and his deal-making prowess. “Every country is calling every day, saying, ‘Let’s make a deal’” on trade, he told Fox News.

Of course, he also declared that the head of U.S. Steel called to tell him that the company was opening six new facilities; it isn’t, and the conversation apparently never happened.

So we’re heading into a trade war, and it’s hard to see how the escalation ends. After all, foreign governments literally can’t give Trump what he wants, because he wants them to stop doing things they aren’t actually doing.

How will all of this affect the U.S. economy? Exporters will be hurt, of course — and exports support around 10 million jobs. Some industries that compete with imports might end up adding jobs. But they wouldn’t be the same jobs, in the same places: A trade war would cause huge worker displacement.

But there are no grown-ups in this administration, which basically makes policy by temper tantrum. A full-blown trade war looks all too possible; in fact, it may already have begun.

[One Degree]

The fact our trading partners preferred Obama to Trump should be a clue whose policies benefit the US. To use their unhappiness as a failure of Trump’s policies is counter intuitive. If your trade partners are happy, then you are probably getting screwed.
All you are seeing is the difference between a globalist and a nationalist. I realize many are too young to truly understand the differences, but some of you are old enough to know Nationalism is not a catastrophe.

[Godstud]

The fact our trading partners preferred Obama to Trump should be a clue whose policies benefit the US.

Yes, it should be a great big clue that Trump's a fucking moron, and going to damage American trade, along with the economy, with his myopic policies. Get a clue.

If your trade partners are happy, then you are probably getting screwed.

That's a pretty stupid statement. Most trade is done so that both sides benefit, or they don't MAKE the deal.

I realize many are too young to truly understand the differences, but some of you are old enough to know Nationalism is not a catastrophe.

No, but it does lead to some very stupid and regrettable things. Nationalism led to Nazi Germany.

Nationalism: Back Again Like a Bad Dream
The economic collapse and political instability caused by the onerous armistice terms of the First World War led to the rise of Fascism in Europe 20 years later. Fascism was an ideology that glorified the military, denounced international organizations and cooperation and considered war an acceptable means for achieving national goals. Ultimately, these beliefs led to World War II. Another contributor was the Great Depression that decimated the economies of Europe and the US, thus paving the way for the emergence of the Nazi Fascists in Germany and a military clique to take power in Japan. Contributing to the Great Depression was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. It was enacted to protect American companies. Instead of helping, it hurt business. The tariff charged a high tax for foreign imports with the unintended consequence of less trade taking place and some countries retaliating economically against the US … And so it goes.

There are those who argue that Nationalism is necessary to have a well-functioning democracy. They point to Nationalism’s objective of having all citizens of the nation identify with the same culture, among other criteria. This is accomplished by standardizing the language, education, legal codes, media, and so on. They say that only within such a community is it possible for a modern democracy to function; that without such a national community, it’s impossible to have democratic debate.

What they say may well have some merit. But I can’t help but think about the political excesses of the 1930s, the protectionism and the xenophobic zeal that were all part of the Nationalistic wave that swept the world following the First World War. It ultimately resulted in Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland and Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor, ending with Hiroshima. Something to think about as we grapple with the challenges facing our world today.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/edfuller/2 ... 8f5a614636

[One Degree]

Yes, it should be a great big clue that Trump's a fucking moron, and going to damage American trade, along with the economy, with his myopic policies. Get a clue.

That's a pretty stupid statement. Most trade is done so that both sides benefit, or they don't MAKE the deal.

No, but it does lead to some very stupid and regrettable things. Nationalism led to Nazi Germany.

Nationalism: Back Again Like a Bad Dream
The economic collapse and political instability caused by the onerous armistice terms of the First World War led to the rise of Fascism in Europe 20 years later. Fascism was an ideology that glorified the military, denounced international organizations and cooperation and considered war an acceptable means for achieving national goals. Ultimately, these beliefs led to World War II. Another contributor was the Great Depression that decimated the economies of Europe and the US, thus paving the way for the emergence of the Nazi Fascists in Germany and a military clique to take power in Japan. Contributing to the Great Depression was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. It was enacted to protect American companies. Instead of helping, it hurt business. The tariff charged a high tax for foreign imports with the unintended consequence of less trade taking place and some countries retaliating economically against the US … And so it goes.

There are those who argue that Nationalism is necessary to have a well-functioning democracy. They point to Nationalism’s objective of having all citizens of the nation identify with the same culture, among other criteria. This is accomplished by standardizing the language, education, legal codes, media, and so on. They say that only within such a community is it possible for a modern democracy to function; that without such a national community, it’s impossible to have democratic debate.

What they say may well have some merit. But I can’t help but think about the political excesses of the 1930s, the protectionism and the xenophobic zeal that were all part of the Nationalistic wave that swept the world following the First World War. It ultimately resulted in Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland and Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor, ending with Hiroshima. Something to think about as we grapple with the challenges facing our world today.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/edfuller/2 ... 8f5a614636

Two insults and then an idiotic claim all nationalism is Nazism.
trolling

[Godstud]

What insults? I said the statement you made was stupid, not you. You saying my claim was idiotic, is also not an insult.

Yes, I'm sorry that nationalism has had such a bad history, and that history totally disputes your claim.

I never said that all nationalism was Nazi. I gave an example. What happened in Japan was also caused by rampant nationalism.

[One Degree]

What insults? I said the statement you made was stupid, not you. You saying my claim was idiotic, is also not an insult.

Yes, I'm sorry that nationalism has had such a bad history, and that history totally disputes your claim.

I never said that all nationalism was Nazi. I gave an example. What happened in Japan was also caused by rampant nationalism.

If you hate nationalism, then you must be a globalist. Who should decide the rules for this globalist society? How about South Africa? North Korea? We are all equal so anyone should be equally capable of deciding the rules.

[jimjam]

The fact our trading partners preferred Obama to Trump should be a clue whose policies benefit the US. To use their unhappiness as a failure of Trump’s policies is counter intuitive. If your trade partners are happy, then you are probably getting screwed.

This also may be a clue that countries don't care to have a shit deal presented to them as if it was a great deal by a bully who is spouting lies and insults as well as demonstrating a lack of understanding as to how international trade works. Let us give Donald the benefit of the doubt and surmise that his lack of understanding is just hype and a bargaining tactic used by the greatest deal maker of all time. This is besides the point when considered that it is still bullshit.

All you are seeing is the difference between a globalist and a nationalist. I realize many are too young to truly understand the differences, but some of you are old enough to know Nationalism is not a catastrophe.

Apparently globalism is a dirty word. The US has ceded it's role as leader of "globalism" in favor of isolationism being served up with an American flag wrapped around it.

The US will be seen by the rest of the world, excepting Russia, as, like Donald, being unable to work and play well with others. We will be relegated to a marginal role in world trade while the rest of the world fills the void left by our exit from the stage.

Donald's tactics worked well with the Republican party because he was able to create a dynamic where unless you flattered his ego and kissed his ass, your $ would wither and you would not be reelected. China and England and most nations have their own economic resources and, hence, no need to suck up to a man who is insulting their national pride and spouting lies, insults and bullshit. Let's face it, who, other than suck ups, would even want to be in the same room with this mental case.

Happy fourth #1. I hope you have good hot, sunny 4th of July weather out there in Indiana …. and hot dogs.