[Hong Wu]

According to a new Reuters poll and Twitter trends, white millennials are split between the Democratic and Republican parties right now: https://pjmedia.com/election/white-mill ... -up-steam/

White millennials are equally divided between supporting Republicans and Democrats in this year's critical midterm elections, as a campaign urging people to "Walk Away" from the Democratic Party has picked up steam online.

Young people do not like President Donald Trump, but whites between the ages of 18 and 34 said they are equally likely to vote for a Republican as for a Democrat in the elections for Congress this November. A full 39 percent said that "if the election for U.S. Congress were held today," they would vote for the Republican in the district where they live. Another 39 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.

This represented a nine-point shift away from Democrats since 2016. That year, only 33 percent of young white voters said they would elect a Republican to Congress, while 47 percent said they would choose a Democrat.

Young white men made the greatest shift toward the GOP. In 2016, nearly half of them (48 percent) said they would vote for a Democrat, while only 36 percent said they would vote Republican. This year, 46 percent said they would choose a Republican, while only 37 percent said they would vote Democrat — a 21 percent shift in favor of the GOP.

The 21-point shift might elicit cries of racist white males, except that this is a demographic group that Democrats succeeded in carrying by a strong margin as recently as 2016.

Meanwhile, the new right wing darling, classic liberal Mr. Dershowitz, has some things to say about this:

This is a guy who is clearly predominantly opposed to Trump but let's be honest, he's old and he doesn't understand that modern liberals are not interested in having these long debates about the practical values of liberal ideas... so he has people on his side of the aisle talking about how they want to stab him to death and so-on. I guess hard times, such as "best economy ever" brings out the tough, lean side of people, uninterested in debate, just sharpening their knives and focused on their own survival... you can't blame them really, what other choice did they have?

[Prosthetic Conscience]

Your "new" poll was taken from January to March, and reported at the end of April. I guess that's "new" to a conservative.

If you want an up-to-date poll, Democrats lead Republicans 58-32 among all races in the 18-34 age group, compared to 55-27 in the 2016 Ipsos poll, and 46-28 in the Jan-Mar 2018 Ipsos one. So if there was a swing to Republicans in early 2018 among white millennials, it seems to have faded now.

But, you go ahead and tell yourself that the Russian botnet-led 'walkway' hashtag is what real people think, rather than what some rich guy wants you to believe.

LOL at Dershowitz, who has a book coming out in 3 days' time, telling people what they should be doing is giving him air time. Well, how else is he going to shift that book? What else can he do after manufacturing a "story" about himself?

[Victoribus Spolia]

@Prosthetic Conscience,

Do you see a "blue wave" coming?

what are your predictions for the mid-terms?

[Prosthetic Conscience]

@Victoribus Spolia , I'm not American, so my judgement really isn't good enough to say. I'm sure the Democrats will do better than they did in 2016, since that pretty much always happens in mid-terms, and Trump is clearly unpopular. Against that, the economy is still doing OK (who knows if tariffs will change that before the election), which could save the Republicans. My guess is Democrats will get significantly more votes in the House, but that may not be enough to get them a majority of seats. The Senate is going to come down to state-level feelings about the candidates, and that's too detailed for me to know.

[Victoribus Spolia]

Fair Answer.

I think the Republicans will hold the senate and might even pick up some seats and I think the House will be a toss up and possibly only narrowly won by the Democrats for a slim majority.

In essence, I don't think there will be a blue wave, but I don't think it will be a Red Wall either.

Basically, instead of the house passing bazillions of republican bills to only get shot down in the Senate, we will have an inversion with a Senate that is more capable of passing house legislature, but will find itself now signing less bills either because the bills are too blue or because too few are even making it to the Senate in the first place.

Thus, I don't think the political makeup will change much after the mid-terms. It will be net-gain of zero on both sides as far as power in Washington and I do not expect the tides to change much in local and gubernatorial elections.

In the end though, if this does come true, it should still be considered ominous for the Democrats, for the losses they had to the Republicans in every tier of governance in every election after Obama's first-term debut must be reversed (from their perspective) and nothing short of a blue wave will do.

One must wonder why that is not likely to happen and what that means for the future of the party and not merely for the 2020 presidential race.

I think their current strategy of radicalization, unlike with the Tea Party, will not yield mass support.

That itself meaning that the radicalization of the Republican party was never out of step with the actual beliefs of most Americans, while the radicalization of the Democrat party might, in fact, be quite alien to the present popular attitudes of U.S. citizens.

Only time will tell, but I don't think I am wrong on this.

[One Degree]

Very, very few Americans are represented by the press or Pofo. Most will vote based upon ‘special interest’ issues that has little to do with the supposed political divides. Teachers will be encouraged to vote democratic to increase school funding. Small businesses will vote Republican to reduce restrictions. Etc. This always leaves elections in doubt because the polls can’t cover the huge variety of special interest and how they are currently leaning.
I think to sum it up would be Americans support many liberal issues, but at a conservative price both in dollars and personal sacrifice required. How the candidates walk that line determines the results.
Joe Donnelly is a perfect example of how a ‘Democrat’ can walk that line in a state like Indiana. The Democrats embracing of such things as ‘abolishing ice’ is disastrous in all except a few areas. Imo

Edit: I will predict a huge Republican win, but one successful scandal could change this and I am sure Democrats are preparing one. I anticipate it backfiring.

[Victoribus Spolia]

he Democrats embracing of such things as ‘abolishing ice’ is disastrous in all except a few areas. Imo

Agreed, Obama was even seen as too extreme for most Americans and the current leftist trends make him look like George W Bush. That cannot bode well for them.

Most will vote based upon ‘special interest’ issues that has little to do with the supposed political divides. Teachers will be encouraged to vote democratic to increase school funding. Small businesses will vote Republican to reduce restrictions. Etc. This always leaves elections in doubt because the polls can’t cover the huge variety of special interest and how they are currently leaning.

I guess my disagreement on this is based on the fact that the old predictable special-interests approach was upended a bit by Trump. Union members have always been encouraged to go Democrat, but union-workers broke for Trump. We'll see, but I am willing to bet that some of the old interest-group categories will have to be reconsidered in the future.

[One Degree]

Agreed, Obama was even seen as too extreme for most Americans and the current leftist trends make him look like George W Bush. That cannot bode well for them.



I guess my disagreement on this is based on the fact that the old predictable special-interests approach was upended a bit by Trump. Union members have always been encouraged to go Democrat, but union-workers broke for Trump. We'll see, but I am willing to bet that some of the old interest-group categories will have to be reconsidered in the future.

Actually, we are in agreement. I was just not clear enough. The changing of alliance of ‘special interest’ seems to go unnoticed until it happens such as the union votes. What happens if teachers have become so disillusioned by government interference, they go Republican?

[Victoribus Spolia]

What happens if teachers have become so disillusioned by government interference, they go Republican

That is not at all impossible.

[Hong Wu]

I read somewhere, I think it was one of Doug's posts, that Democrats have to win every toss-up to take the Senate. So it's basically not going to happen there.

Rasmussen has Republicans barely maintaining a house majority too.

Regarding the poll which apparently was released back in April, I'm curious if anyone knows what polling says about these groups right now.

[Zamuel]

That is not at all impossible.

I disagree, but … Glad to see you aren't encouraging the delusional speculation about a "Red Wall."

I think you are going to see -Heavy- support from the Sanders Wing of the democratic party coupled with steady support from traditional democrats. The Rouge democrats who crossed the line in 2016 will mostly do one of two things, avoid voting at all, due to remorse and guilt or cross back in resentment of betrayal by Trump. I don't think republicans will get a "Bump" from them this time.

Any way you slice it up, this election is a referendum on Trump. The fact that so many pro-Trump republicans are running is going to keep some disgruntled republicans away from the polls. It's also going to stimulate democrats and "blue independents" to get out and vote.

This could add up to a blue wave … it's really to early yet to predict. But it's a likely indicator of considerable democratic gain, in both houses. Keep in mind, a gain of just one senate seat is enough to upset the republican apple cart.

Zam

[One Degree]

@Zamuel
I am curious what you think Democrats are offering voters that would get their votes?

[Victoribus Spolia]

This could add up to a blue wave

I seriously doubt that.

Keep in mind, a gain of just one senate seat is enough to upset the republican apple cart.

But as HongWu has pointed out, Democrats have to win like every toss-up in the senate in order to make that happen, which pretty much means it won't happen.

The house is in play, as I have suggested, but people forget just how many seats Democrats have to win to even make that happen.

SO, like I said, even under an optimistically pro-Democrat interpretation, the Senate is not likely to flip blue even if the house does.

Also, I think people are overblowing the "resistance" type candidates in the DNC, they are going to regret that leftward move and for the reasons I have already stated.

Indeed, in 2020, I don't know if any Democrat candidate could possibly take Trump EXCEPT someone like Biden. He is the only one who could flip the Rust Belt in my opinion.

Believe me when I say, the media hysterics against Trump are double-edged, they simultaneously invigorate millennials and alienate and anger the WWC.

Do you really think the Abolish ICE type narrative is going to allow Democrats to recoup their unprecedented loss of control nationwide since 2010?

The issue here is that the Democrats MUST have a blue wave to get even remotely close to the power they once had, but that means they must appeal to MORE people not less and unlike the Tea Party movement which DID have broad appeal (lower taxes, less government, more choice in things like educations, etc.); I doubt that Cortez-style platform is going to motivate more people than millennials and minorities (Abolish ICE, Open Borders, Impeach 45, Transgender Bathrooms, Strict Gun Control, Free everything, higher taxes).

Seriously bro?

That shit is going to keep the DNC as marginalized if not more marginalized than it became under Obama.

The DNC cannot possibly control the nation if is satisfied on having college-aged kids and members of the media as its bread-butter constituency along with domestic minority groups and since it can't rely on immigrant numbers like it used to, it has no choice but to broaden its appeal to those who voted for Trump the first time around and I do not think going the Sanders-Cortez route will pull this off.

Indeed, that the economy is doing fantastic only further confirms that the chances of a blue wave is unlikely.

I expect a blue trickle with some purple rain.

Please explain how I am wrong about this?

[Zamuel]

I seriously doubt that.

Naturally. No big surprise (that comes after the election)

But as HongWu has pointed out, Democrats have to win like every toss-up in the senate in order to make that happen, which pretty much means it won't happen.

Why? Because it suits you … ?

Indeed, that the economy is doing fantastic only further confirms that the chances of a blue wave is unlikely.

Except that the economy is not "doing" fantastic. The Knobs playing the stock market may think so, but the rest of the population is still living hand to mouth, with no expendable cash. Struggling to get by. Those are the people whose votes decide elections. They're not happy with Mr. Trump or his designer cloaked wife.

Please explain how I am wrong about this?

I already did that, go back and read the last message again.

Zam