Trump's Economy Practically Offering Full Employment - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14932129
https://www.dailywire.com/news/32960/tr ... n-saavedra

The economy under the Trump administration is so strong that companies are starting to have a problem with people not showing up to job interviews or new jobs, according to LinkedIn editor-in-chief Dan Roth.

"This job market is so hot right now," Roth told "CBS This Morning" on Wednesday. "Unemployment is at a 18-year low. You've got more job openings than candidates, which is the first time the Labor Department has seen this … It's a buyers' market right now."

"In fields ranging from food service to finance, recruiters and hiring managers say a tightening job market and a sustained labor shortage have contributed to a surge in professionals abruptly cutting off contact and turning silent," LinkedIn Editor at Large Chip Cutter wrote.

The reason for the new behavior is thought to be largely a reflection of the number of offers many candidates have, prompting them to choose a better offer after nearing the end of the hiring process with a company or after accepting an offer.

"Where once it was companies ignoring job applicants or snubbing candidates after interviews, the world has flipped," Cutter continued. "Candidates agree to job interviews and fail to show up, never saying more. Some accept jobs, only to not appear for the first day of work, no reason given, of course. Instead of formally quitting, enduring a potentially awkward conversation with a manager, some employees leave and never return."

With a 3.8% unemployment rate, the lowest in 50 years, and a record-low unemployment rate for Hispanics and blacks, the trend does not look to slow down anytime soon.

While some Democrats are still claiming they can provide government-run full employment and that it's (literal quote) "wrong to ask how we will pay for this", actual employment levels in Trump's economy have pretty much everyone working who wants to work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... since-2009
Wages have also been rising as employers compete for employees, so the argument that these are low-paying jobs doesn't seem to be true. In fact, competition to provide employees with a good environment is so fierce that the average workweek in the US has fallen to 34.3 hours, less than failed projects in countries like France which tried to mandate 35-hour workweeks.
#14932164
The unemployment rate was already great before Trump even came into office. You should be thanking Obama, since he's the one who fixed the economy, not Trump. Trump's just good at taking credit for things he has nothing to do with.

At 4.3 percent in July, the unemployment rate is near its lowest level since early 2001, as Mr. Trump has claimed. What’s more, the rate is less than half its peak at 10 percent in October 2009 in the wake of the recession.

But nearly all of that drop occurred on the watch of his predecessor, Barack Obama.When Mr. Obama left office in January, unemployment was at 4.8 percent.

Even as the unemployment rate has fallen, and other economic indicators, like home prices and the stock market, have been healthy, wages have barely budged. Yes, they’ve gone up, as Mr. Trump tweeted, but average hourly earnings were up 2.5 percent over the last 12 months as of July. That’s actually lower than the 2.9 percent pace in December 2016, just before he took office.

Just why the very low unemployment rate hasn’t led to an increase in pay is one of the biggest questions economists are wrestling with.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... trump.html
#14932172
Yes, Trump's rally started as soon as he was elected because businesses rightfully predicted the cuts to regulations that would occur. Practically no one is crediting Obama in America at this point FYI we're almost two years past him and it would be like crediting the recovery after the recession to Bush and the recession itself to Bill Clinton.
#14932176
:lol: False. Practically everyone with a brain, and who rely on facts, is crediting Obama, since it's Obama who started it all. Only Trumpanzees credit Trump with things he didn't do.

You can credit Trump with the economy getting better in response to the rich, big business, and corporations looking forward to fat juicy tax cuts. I'll give you that much. He hasn't helped the common American one iota, however.
#14932193
Hong Wu wrote:https://www.dailywire.com/news/32960/trumps-economy-so-hot-companies-are-starting-have-ryan-saavedra


While some Democrats are still claiming they can provide government-run full employment and that it's (literal quote) "wrong to ask how we will pay for this", actual employment levels in Trump's economy have pretty much everyone working who wants to work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... since-2009
Wages have also been rising as employers compete for employees, so the argument that these are low-paying jobs doesn't seem to be true. In fact, competition to provide employees with a good environment is so fierce that the average workweek in the US has fallen to 34.3 hours, less than failed projects in countries like France which tried to mandate 35-hour workweeks.


Under Obama unemployment went down by around 6-7% from 10-11% to 4.5.
Under Trump unempoyment went down from around 4.5 to 3.8%.

Yeah, its should fully be acredited to Trump :lol:

Trump is creating less jobs on average compared to Obama also. If you look at the statistics.
#14932196
layman wrote:These figures, especially inflation, were declared fake by trump when Obama was in power. Now these figures from the same sources are trustworthy.
:roll: They are not untrustworthy simply because Putin's cock-gobbler says so! :knife: Your argument is so much stupid, I found it hard to respond, I was laughing so hard.
#14932200
JohnRawls wrote:Under Obama unemployment went down by around 6-7% from 10-11% to 4.5.
Under Trump unempoyment went down from around 4.5 to 3.8%.

Yeah, its should fully be acredited to Trump :lol:

Trump is creating less jobs on average compared to Obama also. If you look at the statistics.


Statistics are fun. How much of the unemployment decrease was due to Welfare increase under Obama? Giving up hope of finding a job reduces unemployment, but does not improve the situation.
Social Security increases were non existent under Obama for 8 years. There can be no doubt the economy was stagnant, at best under Obama, or he lied to Social Security beneficiaries.
#14932202
@One Degree, sorry but your argument makes absolutely no sense. The employment statistics are not related to Welfare statistics. You're just trying to deflect and call it "Fake News!".

One Degree wrote:Social Security increases were non existent under Obama for 8 years.
Yes, he tried but gave up because it was a shit-show. You are not wrong about that.

Obama’s Social Security failure
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 929e0004db

What has Trump done for you lately? He certainly hasn't increased Social Security.

Trump Didn’t Increase Social Security
https://www.factcheck.org/2017/04/trump ... -security/
#14932208
Godstud wrote:@One Degree, sorry but your argument makes absolutely no sense. The employment statistics are not related to Welfare statistics. You're just trying to deflect and call it "Fake News!".

Yes, he tried but gave up because it was a shit-show. You are not wrong about that.

Obama’s Social Security failure
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 929e0004db

What has Trump done for you lately? He certainly hasn't increased Social Security.

Trump Didn’t Increase Social Security
https://www.factcheck.org/2017/04/trump ... -security/


Weird. Then how do you explain my increase?
#14932209
:roll: Read the article... The increase was going thru even before Trump became POTUS.

From the article...
Social Security Administration, Oct. 18, 2016: Monthly Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for more than 65 million Americans will increase 0.3 percent in 2017, the Social Security Administration announced today.

The 0.3 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits payable to more than 60 million Social Security beneficiaries in January 2017. Increased payments to more than 8 million SSI beneficiaries will begin on December 30, 2016. The Social Security Act ties the annual COLA to the increase in the Consumer Price Index as determined by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $127,200 from $118,500. Of the estimated 173 million workers who will pay Social Security taxes in 2017, about 12 million will pay more because of the increase in the taxable maximum.
#14932214
One Degree wrote:Statistics are fun. How much of the unemployment decrease was due to Welfare increase under Obama? Giving up hope of finding a job reduces unemployment, but does not improve the situation.
Social Security increases were non existent under Obama for 8 years. There can be no doubt the economy was stagnant, at best under Obama, or he lied to Social Security beneficiaries.


As mentioned, unemployment statistics has very little to do with welfare. Its more of the other way around. Welfare increases if unemployment is high and decreases if unemployment decreases. But that is besides the point.

If you look at Employment rate then you will see the same picture.
#14932220
Godstud wrote: They are not untrustworthy simply because Putin's cock-gobbler says so! Your argument is so much stupid, I found it hard to respond, I was laughing so hard.

You really need to start reading people's posts before hurling abuse at them. Layman was quite obviously criticising Trump.

As it happens, I agree with layman on this: the role of individual presidents in the economy is vastly overrated.

The last couple of years have been a continuation of an almost decade-long rally in the stock market. To say that the economy has magically "turned around", or changed in some fundamental way, is nothing more than partisan idiocy. The same problems that existed under Obama still exist today. People need to stop confusing "people throwing money at the stock market" with "a sustainable, sound economy".
#14932224
"These figures, especially inflation, were declared fake by trump when Obama was in power. Now these figures from the same sources are trustworthy."

I'm honestly really surprised you can't tell that this is pointing out the hypocrisy of Trump and his supporters.
#14932233
I've worked in construction, manufacturing, and building materials since I got out of high school.

I can say that in general, I haven't noticed much of a difference in the upward trend of my bottom-line or in the businesses I worked with under either Obama or Trump.

Then again, I graduated in 2007 and the housing market crashed in 2008, so the only place for our market to go was up, up, up, and up.

I think people place too much credit on the executive branch for economic changes.

Lets take the Obama era, during which, all meaningful control of the economy was transferred to Republican legislatures and governors at both the local, state, and federal levels.

So can democratic policies REALLY be said to have been the cause of economic growth during those years? I hardly think so, but I would say that this generally applies to any presidency.

Plus, while the manufacturing market struggled, the construction market was growing, so I think this is kind of multi-dimensional, the size of the United States with its semi-autonomous states has micro-economies that can vary wildly.

For example, Pennsylvania, especially the Pittsburgh region, was still hemorrhaging factories when I was working as a machinist. While I was in PGH, two more steel mills closed down and the machinist shopped I worked at closed down and relocated to Tennessee because of its right-to-work laws, lower taxes, and lower regulations. Which is my point, places like TN were booming at that time, as were Texas and the Dakotas. So depending where you lived, different perspectives of the economy could be had, but in general, if you lived in a low-reg low-tax state, there was a good chance you were growing, not shrinking. This is just the facts and is common-sense, businesses (and jobs) will go where its cheaper to do business and so it makes sense that a job-market turn-around began during the Obama era which had an unprecedented shift of power in every echelon of governance from Democrat to Republican.

Its simple math really.

With the exception of the Tariffs (which have negatively effected wood products that I sell personally), decreasing taxes and regulations will help employment, West Virginia's growth has exploded thanks to Trump's deregulation and whether people like it or not we are in high-pressure economy that cannot be solely attributed to either Obama or Trump; however, lowering taxes without cutting expenditures has caused the economy to go into overdrive which is undoubtedly Trump's doing. My problem with it is that its just like flooring the gas in your car or opening the throttle on any engine; you will blow it eventually.

I support a lot of things regarding Trump, but there are some economic moves going on that seem a bit short-sighted to me, yes its causing a bit of a boom, but it will crash if expenditures are not cut.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... my/560108/

Steve Mnuchin is not exactly a tribune of the people. A wealthy financier with a taste for the high life, he is better known for his glamorous spouse than for his commitment to public service. One could argue that Mnuchin’s chief qualification as treasury secretary is simply that while other more distinguished Goldman Sachs veterans refused to back Donald Trump’s seemingly quixotic presidential campaign, he was an early and enthusiastic supporter, opening his wallet in service to a cause most of his peers found distasteful, if not loathsome in the extreme. And Mnuchin was an unlikely Trump supporter at that. The investment banker turned Hollywood impresario, far from being an enemy of America’s coastal elite, is practically its embodiment. Yet somehow it is Mnuchin who has divined the soundest economic strategy for a populist Trump White House to pursue: Let the economy run hot, and ignore self-serving cries of labor shortages from corporate CEOs.

I say “divined” because it’s not entirely clear that Mnuchin’s thoughts on these matters are carefully considered. At the recent Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles, a sort of mini-Davos, Mnuchin offered an insouciant reply to a question from the business journalist Maria Bartiromo about the dire labor shortages supposedly plaguing the country: “What do you say to managers when they say—and I’m sure you’ve heard it, I’ve heard it a lot—I can’t find the people to put in the jobs I have available? Is that about training?” In response, the secretary said, “I think some of it is about training, but I’m not hearing that from the companies I speak to.” Bartiromo was flummoxed by Mnuchin’s reply, so certain was she that labor shortages are indeed a pressing issue. Dan Primack and Steve LaVine of Axios took him to task for daring to suggest that labor shortages were not his concern, pointing to the fact that many U.S. employers claim otherwise. They pointed to his remarks as part of a larger pattern of willful blindness when it comes to America’s labor-market challenges, as evidenced by Mnuchin’s earlier expressions of skepticism about the job-destroying potential of advances in artifical intelligence. That there might be a slight tension between panicking about a shortage of labor today (there aren’t enough workers to fill the jobs!) and a superabundance of labor tomorrow (there won’t be enough jobs for all the workers!) was left unexamined. Of course we don’t have enough workers. Of course robots will take all the jobs. Who could possibly believe otherwise? Well, Steve Mnuchin, apparently. If he really is dismissing talk of labor shortages with the wave of a well-groomed hand, he is absolutely right to do so.

And Mnuchin’s instincts are very much in line with the president’s, as near as we can tell. In deed if not in word, the Trump administration has abandoned central tenets of conservative economic orthodoxy, a commitment to austerity and ulta-low inflation foremost among them. The passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was followed not by deep cuts in safety-net spending, as partisans of small government might have hoped, but rather by an omnibus spending bill that dynamited the sequestration caps dreamed up by self-professed GOP deficit hawks. Yes, Mick Mulvaney, the president’s budget director, still claims to want to shrink government, and the White House is touting its absurdly modest rescissions package, which would trim $15 billion from a bill expected to cost $1.3 trillion, to woo conservatives alarmed by ballooning deficits. Jerome Powell, Trump’s pick for Fed chair, is careful to allay the concerns of those who fear the bogeyman of galloping inflation, even as he pursues an accommodative approach. Overall, though, Trump’s domestic-policy agenda seems likely to create a “high-pressure economy,” fueled by loose fiscal and monetary policies, that will benefit his base.

In the 1970s, Arthur Okun, one of the founding fathers of modern macroeconomics, popularized the term “high-pressure economy” to refer to a state of affairs in which unemployment is low and overall economic growth is high. Workers who might struggle to find remunerative employment in a low-pressure economy, where the opposite conditions prevail, thrive in a high-pressure one, when employers have little choice but to invest in improving their production techniques and providing all of their workers with the capital they need to increase output. Eventually, employers might have no choice but to invest more in training low-skill workers, in the hopes of boosting their productivity levels. Judging by past experience, they’ll invest in training only as a last resort. But they’ll get there.

Consider the case of the construction sector, where employers insist they’ve been crippled by the shrinking size of the construction workforce. Between 2010, when the aftermath of the housing bust meant that the sector was close to its nadir, and 2016, when its recovery was well underway, the number of construction workers actually fell from 10.6 million to 10.5 million, as reported in the Wall Street Journal. Is this not incontrovertible evidence of a shortage? Not quite. As Matthew C. Klein has observed, economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate that output per hour in single-family homebuilding actually fell between 1987 and 2011, at an average rate of 2 percent each year. Merely getting back to the productivity levels of 1987, when Lethal Weapon and Dirty Dancing dominated the box office, would go a long way toward addressing the construction sector’s woes. Matching the productivity of Japan’s construction sector, meanwhile, would likely mean that the overall cost of construction would plummet, even if the size of the construction workforce were to fall further.

Why has productivity growth in the construction sector been so sluggish? One explanation is that, with the brief exception of the late 1990s, the U.S. has for decades had a low-pressure economy, which in turn accounts for lackluster wage growth among low-skill workers. More controversially, one could point to the fact that the construction workforce has long been augmented by low-skill migrants, many of them unauthorized. It is entirely predictable that employers would make use of this labor force, and exploit its vulnerability, rather than rely on well-paid workers with the wherewithal to defend their interests. Indeed, the president himself famously has some experience in this regard. It is easy to see why construction employers are so quick to raise alarm bells about labor shortages. Raising productivity would require significant changes in how the U.S. construction sector does business: For one, wages and working conditions would have to improve, which would no doubt prove difficult for poorly run firms that have long embraced low-wage, low-productivity business models to manage—to which the right response is to say good riddance.

Over time, a high-pressure economy tends to accelerate technological progress. It is only when low-wage workers start quitting their jobs to take better jobs offering higher pay that their employers will break a sweat trying to replace them. In California, a shortage of low-wage workers in the agricultural sector has set off a mad scramble among entrepreneurs and technologists to devise new labor-saving technologies, and it has led farmers to shift from labor-intensive crops such as grapes and asparagus to almonds, which are easier to harvest by machine—a scramble reminiscent of the one that followed the end of the bracero program, when agricultural employers responded to a steep decline in their low-wage labor force by adopting existing mechanical-harvest technologies they had long eschewed.

And that is why fears of a robopocalypse are so misplaced, as Robert Atkinson and John Wu of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation have argued. The productivity-boosting effects of automation generate new wealth that in turn translates into increased consumer demand. Depending on the state of labor market, this increased consumer demand can be met either with increased employment, as there are still workers willing and able to increase their hours, or higher wages than then spur further rounds of automation and business model innovation. If this strikes you as a nightmarish future, you must have found the postwar Golden Age, when exactly these dynamics were at work, positively terrifying.

Which is not to say a high-pressure economy won’t be bad news for some. Legacy businesses that can’t adapt to the new dispensation—those that refuse to countenance higher wages, that fail to embrace business models better suited to new conditions—will of course declare that all is lost, and that what they need most is a new tax cut, a new subsidy, or a new guest-worker program to tide them over. The owners of these businesses, often Republicans in good standing, can be very persuasive. But they must be recognized for what they are: special pleaders, not public-spirited guardians of the commonwealth.

Mnuchin is, admittedly, an unlikely champion of a high-pressure economy. But at a time when the Trump presidency risks sinking under the weight of an endless series of scandals and pseudo-scandals, he may have provided it with an economic formula that will allow the president to keep building popular support.

#14932302
@Godstud

Yes of course I was pointing out that trump literally believes what he wants to be true. Most people do this to some degree but with trump it is pathological.

I do however think the danger of trump was always overblown. I predicted brexit wouldn’t happen and that trump would be a damp squid. I was terribly wrong on one account and correct on the other.

This is a man who refers to himself as a genius and has twittter spats with celebrities. He isn’t smart enough to be that dangerous in the day to day.

Where he could be dangerous is foreign affairs but he does generally seem to be against foreign wars by American standards. A slight improvement in a sense though still bumbling of course.

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