[Wulfschilde]

"Trump is a Nazi, also we've closed the churches until further notice and want to replace the police with private security."

"We are winning Texas for the fifth election in a row."

"We are pro-working class, the unions will pay for this."

[late]

Why?

A lot of police unions have gone too far. I think the outcome will be that they will find their influence, which has been considerable, will be reduced. Possibly a lot.

So when reforms are being worked out in the WH, they won't get much, if any, input.

Which is as it should be, frankly.

[blackjack21]

At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.

This is because: (take your pick) 1) Obama failed 2) a secrete plot by Donald's enemies (Rush Limnberg told me this )

3) Bureaucrats have lied to the public, have been consistently wrong on their prognostications, have not been fired for poor performance, and people simply don't trust them; and, young people think they cannot die from it, so they no longer care about social distancing; and, cities like Miami have high population density too. It's not a big mystery.

The degree of crazy for that to happen, is beyond measurable. My crazynometer is actually broken, it has been for a couple of years now

That's why you seem to be nonplussed with the science that says it's okay for children to go back to school, but suddenly championing home schooling.

You made a simple mistake when you said that Newsome was unpopular in California. Simple because you could have checked the polls

I listen to people, not polls.

I still think that Trump could win.

So do I. In fact, I think he's on track to re-election. Huge numbers of people are leaving liberal cities. They've had enough. 2M people who've never owned guns before are buying guns. There's still a huge disconnect between the government and media talking heads on the one hand, and the people on the other.

But just about none of the stuff you posited, holds water.

All of it does. Mass transit is a government monopoly business, but it is still a business. If they are ordered to remain open, and revenues are down by 90%, they go bankrupt. Airlines can just cut flight frequency. I'm going to head up to Montana next week. I cannot get a flight out of Oakland to get to SLC. I have to go to SFO. They are able to adjust. Mass transit has not. There are those who think "defund the police" is not about actually defunding the police, but rather that they do not have any money. For example, Bond Buyer estimates that state and local hotel taxes will be off by nearly $17B nationwide.

I work from home, but I'm still living in California. I'm considering leaving for a state with very low or no income tax, because I can save upwards of $20k+ a year on tax, AND have a lower cost of living. It's a regional relocation for me, but it isn't on the East Coast. For example, AOC Cries to 'Tax the Rich' Amid Violence and Disease Pandemic in New York. You can only tax them if they decide to remain in New York City, but many have already left. Trump himself has left for Florida. New York City expected to lose more than $300 million from wealthy fleeing city for low-tax havens. Yet, it's not going to stop there. NYC could face significant tax revenue losses over remote work.

As you know, business math is dead simple. An elementary school student could do most of it. However, it is very unforgiving. This type of thing has an impact on market forces--like how ObamaCare created a situation where working class people had their hours cut and had to work two or three jobs to make ends meet while not getting employer-funded health insurance. There will be a lot of unintended consequences. How many businesses can remain open with 90%-100% loss in revenue over 4+ months? Not too many. It takes some deep pockets. I know a bunch of hairdressers who hate Trump, but Newsom's lockdowns are killing them. However, these lockdowns in blue states are also killing the city and state governments: New York's June tax receipts dropped by $1.5 billion compared to last year. How would you feel if you just got a 17% pay cut? Probably not great. Now cities and states will float bonds to keep things going for awhile, but sooner or later the music stops. I don't think this will make a difference either: Hundreds of migrant workers sleep outside Jeff Bezos’ new $100m NYC penthouse demanding world’s richest man pay more tax. It just screams, "time to leave NYC." That's exactly what's happening.

This time though, unless he can figure out how to feign leadership, he has a very tough row to hoe.

It's still a study in contrasts. Biden doesn't fill people with confidence and optimism, and the Democrats generally right now are coming unglued at the local level. So all we have is our own analysis at this point. Just like 2016, we're pretty much completely in the dark because only 6 companies control most mass media and they will broadcast what they want people to do not what people are doing. So it's like wartime psyops 24/7.

But if Trump fucks up a bit more then my troll prediction can come True: https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

That would be a blowout for Biden if he can pull that off. I think that scenario isn't likely because the Democrats are fighting among themselves and there is not a lot of enthusiasm for Biden, whereas Trump's base still loves him and they are enthusiastic to vote for him again. You also have people like Leo Terrell who says he is going to vote for Trump, a Republican, the first time he's voted Republican in his entire life. Civil rights Atty. Leo Terrell: Dems not standing up against crime in Floyd protests because they're afraid to alienate black vote. If Trump just gets to 15% of the black vote, he wins. That's why they are, predictable as ever, pushing a race narrative during a federal election. The problem with Black Lives Matter is that Trump is well known for having a lot of black friends. I'm not saying your scenario can't happen, but I'm not nearly as inclined to think it will happen. My reasoning isn't polls, though. It's what's happening on the ground. For example, that couple in St. Louis who've had their guns seized, while the police did not respond to protesters breaking down gates in a private neighborhood. When people think that they're on their own, that law enforcement won't protect them, you tend to get a shift towards a law-and-order vote.

"Trump is a Nazi, also we've closed the churches until further notice and want to replace the police with private security."

That's yet another factor. Evangelicals will be voting for Trump in huge numbers. Even the Catholic vote will be in play. That's why I say you can't assume the polling is accurate. By what authority does Gavin Newsom ban singing in church? It's as arbitrary and capricious as you can possibly be, and the lawsuits have already started.

A lot of police unions have gone too far. I think the outcome will be that they will find their influence, which has been considerable, will be reduced. Possibly a lot.

So when reforms are being worked out in the WH, they won't get much, if any, input.

Which is as it should be, frankly.

Well, I agree with that last point, but Trump is union friendly--another one of those non-intuitive things the establishment still doesn't understand about him.

[XogGyux]

3) Bureaucrats have lied to the public, have been consistently wrong on their prognostications, have not been fired for poor performance, and people simply don't trust them; and, young people think they cannot die from it, so they no longer care about social distancing; and, cities like Miami have high population density too. It's not a big mystery.


That's why you seem to be nonplussed with the science that says it's okay for children to go back to school, but suddenly championing home schooling.

Science? You can take any randomly/blindly WH policy out there and with a high degree of certainty chances are science contradicts whatever the WH is saying.
I'm not championing any homeschooling at all.
What I am seeing is a short-sighted view of these idiots. The Trump administration didn't take this seriously from the start. Pretended to take it seriously for a couple of weeks but later lost interest. Then refused to take the lead and let the governors do the shit on their own just to turn around them (both republicans and democrats) when the governors started outshining Trump.
The task-force, you know that part of the WH that actually has a few scientists giving their input actually recommended 18states to close.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/politics ... index.html
This is all non-sense. Trump is operating under the idea that the only reason people are not going back to work is that they are taking care of their children at home, this is complete utter nonsense. You take the kids back home and you still have to deal with the many places that are not open, are not going to open and frankly are likely to go completely out of business. Take for instance the airlines, they have been sounding the alarm for months now of the thousands of cuts that they will be making. Of course they are sounding the alarm so that they can bully congress into passing more $$ for them but it still shows that the underlying problem is not one that can be solved with schools re-opening or any 1 non-sense approach.
The main issue is a HEALTHCARE issue, and that's the only thing Trump does not seem to be interested in addressing. He is interested in rallies, in big crowds, in confederate statues and flags, in black rally drivers and basketball players, in Joe Biden, in GOYA.
Ultimately, he can strongarm schools to open but the final choice will be that of parents, teachers, etc. When teachers stop to show up, parents stop sending their kids, etc.... it will be exactly the same as when many states "opened" and you walked into a restaurant that had 2 tables with 4 patrons.
You cannot fix a sinking submarine that has a 2ft hole in the hull with a roll of duct tape. This moron needs to take this seriously, or at least delegate full authority to someone who will take this seriously. CA already closed-back, Texas and FL should have done so a week or two ago but they are run by retarded republicans so they will wait until shit really gets out of control but there is a very high likelyhood that they will end up closing back again, there is also a high likelihood that the political career of these governors will sink as a result.
The power of taking things seriously, or at least pretending. Remember Cuomo? He did a pretty pathetic job in NY, yet his popularity rose and his people trusted him because he took it seriously (or at least pretended well enough to take it seriously). It is not rocket science, why is it so hard for Trump to understand simple shit.

[Hindsite]

I work from home, but I'm still living in California. I'm considering leaving for a state with very low or no income tax, because I can save upwards of $20k+ a year on tax, AND have a lower cost of living. It's a regional relocation for me, but it isn't on the East Coast.

Make sure you vote for Trump before you change your home of residence.
Praise the Lord.

[JohnRawls]

@blackjack21

If Trump gets 15% of the black vote, he will loose hard Trump will loose a lot of his older vote and white vote because of COVID mismanagement. Well he already lost it. Democrats have always been a fractured party which is not new news. This is how their inner party coalition has always behaved to be honest. It is far broader but unity is hard to achieve. On the other hand Republicans have always been a united block on the presidential election which is never going to happen this election. Add the Covid mismanagement ravaging the states like Texas or Florida on top of the economic downturn. Trump is a one time president, an anomaly that promised things but never managed to achieve or perform. He is toast.

While i am not sure about my prediction, when i did it, it was a troll prediction that speculated that the chances of it is like 10% if Trump fucks up even more. Well, slowly, it is turning in to reality. Trump loosing Texas would be the crown jewl for Biden. Even worse if Biden manages to fortify the state for the democrats long term. This would be a significant blow to any hopes of the R party for future presidencies. And that is not really a good thing.

[Drlee]

The republicans are in a bad spot right now. They pretty much have to back Trump because, unlike a party republican, Trump is even more inclined to attack republicans than he is to attack democrats. As would any bully, he is fond of soft targets.

So they are heading down the rabbit hole with him and can't step aside. If Trump does well then the down ballot republicans will too. But if he gets trounced they stand a good chance of going down with him. Sycophants like McSally in Arizona who is trailing her democratic party opponent by a bunch, will likely stay the course. She hasn't even mounted much of a campaign. Other mainstream republicans have about 30 days to separate themselves from Trump or ride it out.

Even Trump's campaign ads are milk toast. No doubt he will start lying about Biden soon but it may be too little too late. People are just tired of his shit. If he looses 10% of white females OR 10% of the elderly he is done for.

[Julian658]

The republicans are in a bad spot right now. They pretty much have to back Trump because, unlike a party republican, Trump is even more inclined to attack republicans than he is to attack democrats. As would any bully, he is fond of soft targets.

So they are heading down the rabbit hole with him and can't step aside. If Trump does well then the down ballot republicans will too. But if he gets trounced they stand a good chance of going down with him. Sycophants like McSally in Arizona who is trailing her democratic party opponent by a bunch, will likely stay the course. She hasn't even mounted much of a campaign. Other mainstream republicans have about 30 days to separate themselves from Trump or ride it out.

Even Trump's campaign ads are milk toast. No doubt he will start lying about Biden soon but it may be too little too late. People are just tired of his shit. If he looses 10% of white females OR 10% of the elderly he is done for.

No one can predict the future, but the summer of 2020 looks a lot like the summer of 2016. There were two awful candidates, both with major negatives. As we moved closer to the election HRC was favored by the polls. The Dems underestimated Trump just as you are now.

The violence by the left this summer may be more damaging to the Dems than the Covid 19 to Trump. You will not see that in polling data as most that are polled say they do not favor Trump. Why would they favor Trump who is incompetent? Then they look at Biden and suddenly they just go for Trump. Better the devil you know.

My only concern is that if Trump wins in November 2020 we will have massive rioting in the large cities with woke Democratic government. We are already seen an exodus of people from the Democratic controlled cities due to poor woke city government. Before you know it San Francisco, Chicago, New York, LA, etc will look a lot like Baltimore and Detroit.

[blackjack21]

If Trump gets 15% of the black vote, he will loose hard Trump will loose a lot of his older vote and white vote because of COVID mismanagement. Well he already lost it.

People have to make a choice when they vote. Are they going to vote for the party that wants to kill off the energy sector, raise taxes through the roof, continue to allow China to dominate 80% of US imports, and ignore human rights abuses in Hong Kong and to the Uighur population with concentration camps, and turn a blind eye to non-stop rioting in Democrat cities? The behavior of blue state Democrats is seriously alienating many factions. The script writes itself. The Democrats are for open borders, and closed businesses, churches, and schools.

We're in the eye of the hurricane again. All of us were led to believe that Hillary Clinton was 10-11 points ahead of Trump in 2016. Yet, he was filling stadiums and she couldn't fill a high school gym. Trump gives a rally and 12M+ people stream the video of it. Joe Biden does his podcasts, and he gets 4-5k people watching it--rarely ever breaking 6k viewers. A typical YouTuber like Mark Dice appears to be substantially more popular than Joe Biden when you look at it through those sorts of metrics. That may be misleading, but we shall see. Hillary Clinton did not have a concession speech ready. Neither did Mitt Romney--although he didn't sob himself into a drunken oblivion and have to give his concession the next day. You believe the media. I do not.

On the other hand Republicans have always been a united block on the presidential election which is never going to happen this election. Add the Covid mismanagement ravaging the states like Texas or Florida on top of the economic downturn.

Who do you think is going to vote for Biden, because of coronavirus? Texas and Florida are not ravaged. It is happening mostly in liberal cities where people were protesting in close proximity for over a month as a way of breaking lockdowns and social distancing with the blessings of big city liberal politicians. We also have some labs reporting 100% of tests being positive, meaning there is probably something wrong with the testing (false positives) or reporting.

Trump is a one time president, an anomaly that promised things but never managed to achieve or perform. He is toast.

I'll save this quote for election day. People are moving out of big cities--voting with their feet and their money. That doesn't happen without a change in political views. If somebody called me up and asked me who I was voting for, I'd report undecided or Biden. Why? I don't want Democrats showing up to my house and throwing a Molotov cocktail through my front window. People see the political violence, and they know it comes from the Democrats and their rent-a-mobs. They aren't going to offer how they like Donald Trump to a pollster with financial and other ties to the Democratic party. It's not worth it. So you can't really trust the polls anymore.

Trump loosing Texas would be the crown jewl for Biden.

Oh, no question. That COULD happen, because Californians are leaving California in droves for Texas. Many will have changed their political perspective, but many will not. The liberal hivemind does not break in a lot of people, even when they have fled for their money or their lives.

Even worse if Biden manages to fortify the state for the democrats long term.

Butterflies, and moons, and fairytales as Jimi Hendrix put it. Biden just launched his new Green New Deal, which will devastate the Texas economy. Voters can be incredibly stupid, but they've seen what that sort of thing has done to the coal industry. Even people who aren't in the oil and gas business will understand that if you kill that business, you're going to kill the trucking business, the banking business, the hospitality business, etc. It has cascading effects.

This would be a significant blow to any hopes of the R party for future presidencies.

It would also be a significant blow to the American way of life.

They pretty much have to back Trump because, unlike a party republican, Trump is even more inclined to attack republicans than he is to attack democrats.

Well, not in any way like John McCain or Mitt Romney. Trump isn't a classic RINO. So I think that's a bit of a misread.

People are just tired of his shit. If he looses 10% of white females OR 10% of the elderly he is done for.

I haven't seen any elderly people changing their ideology. My father's brother is just as gung-ho Trump as ever and my aunt and uncle on my mother's side are just as anti-Trump as ever. There are a lot of what-ifs at this point. However, I think Trump's base is far more motivated than Biden's. This was the big blind spot in the last election. I think with the Democrats getting violent, the polls have just become unreliable at this point as people take a very real risk in saying they support Trump.

[JohnRawls]

@blackjack21

Ofcourse people are going to vote Biden because of Corona. Trump is failing to contain it. Every dead person is basically an additional 2-3 votes for Biden from that family. Every unemployed is additional vote for Biden. You get the point. Hillary was heavily discredited and did her fair share of mistakes. It is hard to critisize Biden besides the stupid memes that nobody really cares about. The Pedo meme is not something that Trump or the Republicans can pronounce loudly because they will get sued and loose big time and they know it. Besides that, it is basically boring Biden vs Evil Trump. The vote ain't between bad vs bad it is between boring and stable vs evil and unstable. It is kinda a clear cut vote, especially after Trumps 4 years and inability to achieve.

[Hindsite]

@blackjack21

Ofcourse people are going to vote Biden because of Corona. Trump is failing to contain it. Every dead person is basically an additional 2-3 votes for Biden from that family. Every unemployed is additional vote for Biden. You get the point. Hillary was heavily discredited and did her fair share of mistakes. It is hard to critisize Biden besides the stupid memes that nobody really cares about. The Pedo meme is not something that Trump or the Republicans can pronounce loudly because they will get sued and loose big time and they know it. Besides that, it is basically boring Biden vs Evil Trump. The vote ain't between bad vs bad it is between boring and stable vs evil and unstable. It is kinda a clear cut vote, especially after Trumps 4 years and inability to achieve.

I think President Trump has been treated very unfairly by the Democrats and their media. As a conservative, I think he has done a very good job for our country under those circumstances. He was still able to deliver on many of his campaign promises until China unleashed their virus. Based on his record on the economy and everything else, I think he is best to bring our economy back. I also believes he deserves that chance. Therefore, I believe it is my duty to vote to reelect Trump in 2020.

[XogGyux]

I think President Trump has been treated very unfairly by the Democrats and their media. As a conservative, I think he has done a very good job for our country under those circumstances. He was still able to deliver on many of his campaign promises until China unleashed their virus. Based on his record on the economy and everything else, I think he is best to bring our economy back. I also believes he deserves that chance. Therefore, I believe it is my duty to vote to reelect Trump in 2020.

What was the last thing that you ate? I am just curious what is the taste that you are experiencing right now after you just puked all that BS .

[Hindsite]

What was the last thing that you ate? I am just curious what is the taste that you are experiencing right now after you just puked all that BS .

I just ate some Honey Nut Cheerios in milk.

[blackjack21]

Every unemployed is additional vote for Biden.

Almost everyone who is unemployed has been forced out of work by a Democrat calling them "non-essential", and not allowing them to work with masks, etc. Donald Trump is only responsible for the international airline jobs due to the suspension of international travel.

It is hard to critisize Biden besides the stupid memes that nobody really cares about.

The Violent Crime and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, NAFTA, Defense of Marriage Act, Financial Services Modernization Act, Patriot Act, McCain-Feingold, Iraq War, Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, and TARP would be things a lot of people would disagree with in places Biden needs to win.

[JohnRawls]

Almost everyone who is unemployed has been forced out of work by a Democrat calling them "non-essential", and not allowing them to work with masks, etc. Donald Trump is only responsible for the international airline jobs due to the suspension of international travel.


The Violent Crime and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, NAFTA, Defense of Marriage Act, Financial Services Modernization Act, Patriot Act, McCain-Feingold, Iraq War, Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, and TARP would be things a lot of people would disagree with in places Biden needs to win.

Hold on their buddy. It is the republican pitch to cut down on subsidies and additional guarantees for businesses. It was trump and republicans who royally fucked them.

[Doug64]

At this point Florida alone has an average daily death toll roughly equal to that of the whole European Union, which has 20 times its population.

As of last Saturday, Florida had a death per million count of 228 to the European Union’s 303. It has a ways to go before it catches up.

Almost everyone who is unemployed has been forced out of work by a Democrat calling them "non-essential", and not allowing them to work with masks, etc. Donald Trump is only responsible for the international airline jobs due to the suspension of international travel.

And now we’re having the latest fight, over whether schools are essential. Democrats don’t think they are, Republicans do.

[Patrickov]

As of last Saturday, Florida had a death per million count of 228 to the European Union’s 303. It has a ways to go before it catches up.

And now we’re having the latest fight, over whether schools are essential. Democrats don’t think they are, Republicans do.

Hoping death toll / death rate to "catch up" sounds rather evil.

Meanwhile, schooling is secondary if lives themselves are under threat. One may say that some Republicans do not see lives as important as they should be. Not that this is essentially a wrong opinion, but I will be careful if I do need to tread this kind of water (i.e. at least justify my position)

[Doug64]

Hoping death toll / death rate to "catch up" sounds rather evil.

Who said anything about “hoping”? certainly not me. I’m just pointing out that as bad as things might be in Florida at the moment, overall it hasn’t been as bad as it has been in the European Union—definitely not as bad as it’s been in New Jersey and New York, which far outstrip both the EU and Florida in deaths per million.

Meanwhile, schooling is secondary if lives themselves are under threat. One may say that some Republicans do not see lives as important as they should be. Not that this is essentially a wrong opinion, but I will be careful if I do need to tread this kind of water (i.e. at least justify my position)

So teachers’ lives are more important than those of agricultural workers, or delivery drivers? Or do they just have a more powerful union?

[blackjack21]

It is the republican pitch to cut down on subsidies and additional guarantees for businesses.

Why do you think there should be subsidies and guarantees for businesses? A lack of subsidies and guarantees for businesses doesn't "fuck" anybody, unless the government induced investors into a business with the promises of subsidies and guarantees.

Meanwhile, schooling is secondary if lives themselves are under threat.

According to the scientist, they are not under threat. Overwhelmingly, the people dying from coronavirus are elderly. There aren't a lot of elderly children.

[Patrickov]

So teachers’ lives are more important than those of agricultural workers, or delivery drivers? Or do they just have a more powerful union?

Neither agricultural workers nor delivery drivers have as much exposure to the virus as teachers and students, because the latter have to be confined in enclosed spaces together for a longer period of time than the former.

But of course, all of them should take the necessary precautions if they do need to interact with anybody else.