Should the US Prevent Sales of F-35's to Turkey? - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14997014
One of the more tragic aspects of the phony Russiagate scandal is that otherwise reasonably intelligent people do not debate the substantive foreign policy issues, opting instead for MSM manufactured Russia conspiracy bullshit. Yet, there is a pretty serious development on the horizon:

U.S. halts F-35 equipment to Turkey, protests its plans to buy from Russia

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has halted delivery of equipment related to the stealthy F-35 fighter aircraft to Turkey, marking the first concrete U.S. step to block delivery of the jet to the NATO ally in light of Ankara’s planned purchase of a Russian missile defense system.

That's a pretty big deal.

The Trump administration is blocking F-35 equipment to Turkey, which has yet to receive F-35 fighters. Erdogan is fucking things up royally for NATO. Purchasing Russian anti-aircraft systems would probably not bother Obama, but it would expose NATO-made planes to constant surveillance by Russian anti-aircraft--potentially giving Russia an advantage to improve its systems against the F-35.

Whether Russia is seen as a military rival or not, it is simply a practical matter that Russia is not a NATO member and not going to become one anytime soon. Consequently, purchasing Russian-made anti-aircraft systems is in effect subsidizing a rival.

For people dumb enough to believe Hillary Clinton's Russiagate conspiracy, here is yet another example where Trump is not helping Russian interests. In fact, Washington is signalling a potential break with a NATO member, and a NATO member is signalling a possible intent to leave NATO.

I think it is pre-mature to suggest Turkey will leave or be kicked out of NATO, but clearly there is some pretty significant tension here.
#14997029
Turkey is a NATO ally only on paper. It is more apparent than ever that Turkish and Western interests are no longer aligned. And this is for the best. The Turks are an invasive species. They don't belong in Anatolia, let alone in Europe. This diplomatic Schism will hopefully continue to grow until the break becomes final. Constantinople will be Greek once again. Maybe not in 200 years, but perhaps in 500. Keep in mind that the Berbers ruled southern Spain for 700 years, and now they don't. Same experience for the Turks in regards to the Balkans.
#14997083
We should certainly be sending F35s to Turkey. just ones full of bombs. At the very least we should demand they leave Cyprus, but I would also like to see the liberation of Constantinople. The Bosphorus would also be easier to control immigration. Ideally we would have a combined assault with Syrians to liberate Idlib and Hatay, along with the Kurds and the Armenians.
#14997169
I've been more or less leery of Turkey's reliability as a NATO ally since the Iraq War--although, I have since changed my views on the Iraq War. However, the US was not allowed to send the 4th ID into Iraq from Turkey, nor use Incirlik in those days.

While I think there are still elements in the Turkish military that are pro-Western, I think the weirdness of the homosexuality cult in the West has driven away a lot of our Eastern allies. Erdogan is a significant factor in this divergence of views between Turkey and other NATO members, but I don't think it's as simple as "get rid of Erdogan and we get rid of the Turkish question." The West has gotten increasingly socially weird in my lifetime. So I find it unsurprising that there notion of "soft power" is no longer very compelling.

However, I was not suggesting open war between NATO in Turkey. I don't think that would be well advised. Turkey's military is bigger than the UKs, and it is well equipped. The Bosporus is strategic.

However, I'm simply looking at the big picture. NATO reason for existence kind of got lost after the Cold War, and Turkey doesn't seem to care about Russia as a strategic threat. The US will not go easy on Turkey if Turkey buys Russian missiles--at least under Trump. So I'm interested in where this leads in the long run.
#14997182
I have noticed a steady change in attitude toward the U.S. and NATO since Erdogan has taken power. As long as leaders like him remain in control of Turkey, I support the President's decision to prevent the sales of F-35 aircraft to Turkey even though it remains in NATO. If we ever have to go to war against them, why would we want to increase their military capability?
#14997183
The conundrum is that Turkey is playing both sides against the middle. But for me this is pretty easy.

Turkey is no friend to the US. It is a royal pain in the ass. I would not sell them F-35's. I would stop training their officers and exclude them from all classified Nato information other than just that small amount necessary to allow them some minor participation in NATO.

It is time that the US reacts strongly when its so-called allies criticize and/or act against its best interest. If I had been President when that Erdoğan's body guards assaulted US citizens, I would have ignominiously booted him from the country and arrested the guards. We have been altogether to forgiving with Turkey. We should not listen when mice roar.

Trump should prohibit the sale of any US weaponry to Turkey. If he is actually blocking the sale of F-35s to Turkey then good for him.
#14997294
Hindsite wrote:I have noticed a steady change in attitude toward the U.S. and NATO since Erdogan has taken power. As long as leaders like him remain in control of Turkey, I support the President's decision to prevent the sales of F-35 aircraft to Turkey even though it remains in NATO. If we ever have to go to war against them, why would we want to increase their military capability?

That's some of my thinking. The issue from a technical perspective, as I see it, is that these air defense systems are no longer primitive standalone systems. 50 years ago, nobody in their right mind would record radar readings. Today, nobody in their right mind would not record them. At least one issue is that when eye witnesses know that an F-35 is flying, the radar readings can be transmitted back to Russia and they can improve algorithms to distinguish faint readings that might be birds, balloons, etc. from actual fighter planes. So you definitely do not want to have F-35s flying continuously in an airspace monitored by Russian air defenses.

Drlee wrote:I would stop training their officers and exclude them from all classified Nato information other than just that small amount necessary to allow them some minor participation in NATO.

As I see it, this is the problem with the US government since the fall of the Soviet Union. On an orthogonal matter, I used to say that NAFTA would not make Mexico more like the US, but it would make the US more like Mexico. I think that has come to pass. Similarly, I don't think cold warriors would ever have let China rise to the point that it has. They were terribly concerned about an ally like Japan in the 1980s, if you remember. The thing with Turkey is that they have been integral to nuclear defense. Incirlik hosts 90 B61 nuclear weapons. 40 of those weapons are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force should nuclear war arise--this, of course, would require NATO approval.

Drlee wrote:It is time that the US reacts strongly when its so-called allies criticize and/or act against its best interest. If I had been President when that Erdoğan's body guards assaulted US citizens, I would have ignominiously booted him from the country and arrested the guards. We have been altogether to forgiving with Turkey. We should not listen when mice roar.

We might call Erdogan a mouse, but we can't say the same of Turkey. Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO--that is, it's bigger than the British Army, whose institutional memory can probably still utter the word "Gallipoli" and shudder.

We have had similar problems for the whole of the 21st Century with so-called allies like Pakistan.

Drlee wrote:Trump should prohibit the sale of any US weaponry to Turkey. If he is actually blocking the sale of F-35s to Turkey then good for him.

I am inclined to agree. So I suspect that the suspension of the sale of other equipment is a signal to NATO allies other than Turkey as well.

Washington's foreign policy has been ambiguous for decades now. It does need to firm up.
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