[Godstud]

@Sivad OK, but USA still has more cases than China, which is close to the same size as USA, but with 4 times as many people.

You have no argument for that, do you?

It's an idiotic metric anyway because unreported cases vastly outnumber confirmed cases in all countries.

USA likely has more unreported cases, too.

[Sivad]

Prof. Yoram Lass

former Director General of the Israeli Health Ministry and Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv University Medical School

22 Mar, 2020

Former Health Ministry chief Prof. Yoram Lass says governments can't halt viruses and the lockdown will kill more people from depression than the virus.

Former Ministry of Health director-general Prof. Yoram Lass has been regularly interviewed by the Israeli media since the coronavirus outbreak first started. But in contrast to the prophets of doom and deep concern shown by most medical professionals, he has presented a somewhat different and controversial opinion. Prof. Lass feels that it is wrong to shut down the entire country because of a virus that is ultimately less of a killer than the flu. In other words, he is saying that taking into account the cost benefits, it is preferable 'to sacrifice' the elderly so that daily life can go on as normal. This is an outlook that has antagonized many and has made him a 'persona non grata' in the TV interview studios.


Lass is at peace with himself over all this and with the voices calling him 'deluded." "I didn't invite myself to the studios," he told "Globes," "and I'm prepared to give my opinion to everybody who is ready to listen."

Do you think you are being excluded because you presented an unpopular position?

"I can tell you that several days ago I heard with my own ears, after I was interviewed on the radio by Nissim Mishal, the deputy director of the Ministry of Health Prof. Itamar Grotto tell Mishal that I shouldn't be brought into studios. And last Friday, I was invited to the studio by Ayala Hasson. Some three days beforehand, they called me and ask not to go anywhere else, and then the day before they cancelled. And who did they replace me with on the program? The futurist David Passig, who told the people of Israel that in the best case scenario 40 million people would die, and in the worst case scenario 300 million people would die. That shows you how the media is only trumpeting hysteria. Because it was clear that if I was sitting next to him, I would only have told an amazed Israeli people that every year 17,000 Italians die of flu while in Israel only 126 dies of flue last year.

What does that mean?

"Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington."

"The characteristics in every country are different. In Italy the median age of those dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more and among the dead are more men. In Korea, in contrast, more young women and non-smokers have been infected. In every country, more people die from regular flu compared with those who die from the coronavirus. All this is what I was saying when they were still listening to me. Instead of this they bring somebody like Passig, who says the opposite things, and I'm sure that what he says won't happen."


How can you be sure?

"Because there is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the world from Mexico. But what? At that time there was no Facebook or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus in contrast is a virus with public relations."

Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong"

The number of deaths from the virus is not what is shocking in the eyes of Lass. "I won't say how many people will ultimately die from coronavirus, but what I say to myself is that in a large country like China, in the entire Wuhai region, which has 70 million people, 3,000 people have died. In that entire country, the numbers are very low. If that was like the black plague in the Middle Ages in Europe, in which one third of Italians died, then 20 million people would die. Small pox, which the European brought to America, killed off all the Indians. The atmosphere today in Israel is as if there is some type of disease, which will kill off all the population. If Passig says that 300 million will die (worldwide) then 1 million will die in Israel.

But it is not only in Israel. All the countries that were apparently complacent until now, like Germany and the UK, have all now brought in a policy of lockdown.

"Even so I say that the numbers do not match the panic. That's because in China they stopped the virus and because of natural immunity, which they've forgotten to talk about. What stopped the swine flu pandemic and what generally stops viruses? Whoever thinks that the government ends viruses is completely wrong. What really happens? The virus, which nobody can stop, spreads throughout the population and then the population, not those at risk, are exposed to the virus and simultaneously the body creates antibodies to shut down and prevent the disease. At the moment in Israel, the virus is being spread around by a great many people who don't know that they have it and people are being exposed and becoming immune. The chain of infection is broken and in that way the virus comes to a halt."

You're talking about the British model in which the elderly are forced into isolation and the rest of the population develops natural immunity and continues their lives as normal?

"Yes, I agree completely with that approach. On the one hand, to protect the weak population, while leaving the rest of the other people to carry on."

But then we see that even the British prime minister Boris Johnson, who led that policy, was forced to back down.

"He caved in. We are in a clear situation of psychology prevailing over science. The science rests on data. I presented to you some numbers and statistics that demonstrate that the genie is not terrible. Regular flu makes people yawn and the old person in a bed in a hospital corridor doesn't interest anybody but we have become monstrously hysterical and in the past fascist regimes have come to power. It's the same type of craziness. Entire peoples are undergoing some sort of mental process."

A lot of antagonism has been stirred up towards you by your comments that the elderly population can be sacrificed.

"I didn't use such a terrible word as 'to sacrifice' at all. The journalist asked me if that's what I meant and on TV you don't have the possibility of explaining in detail, so I simply answered yes. But that's not what I meant although I take responsibility for it."

So what did you mean?

"To say that in life we take risks, and I've got some examples: when we drive in the car we cause the deaths of about 350 people per year (in Israel). if we stopped all transportation in Israel, we would save their lives. We would save them."

"Another example: many soldiers who are young and have their entire lives before them are killed so that the defense plans and policies can be implemented, and which are sometimes deluded. So because of the risk we should dismantle the IDF in order to save the soldiers' lives?"


If we get back to our example, the medical price of what is happening now resembles price paid for the seasonal flu virus that we have every fall. In the State of Israel, 126 people die, in the US 40,000 people, in Italy 17,000 and that's the price we are prepared to pay to live normal lives."

The economic damage is harder than the health damage

"I call it the economic and social Yom Kippur. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have lost their livelihood and their support and many more will die from heart attacks and anxiety or depression as a result of this. So in life we take risks and pay the price."

"You need courage to present an opposing opinion

Why in your opinion is your position received with such antagonism?

"I receive a lot of support from people in the public, although of course not from a representative sample. There is to my regret somebody who is being saved by all this hysteria at the moment, so he is not going to extinguish it but he is 'going along with' the whole thing and I admit that you need courage to present an opposing position."

Well, it's clear who you mean

"I'm talking generally. The situation is even playing into the hands of the Hungarian prime minister because the fact that two Iranian students started the virus (in his country) supports his clams against foreigners."

But still how do you explain that even leaders that initially didn't take the virus seriously, like Trump, completely changed their opinion?

"I'm a man of science, feelings won't sway me. I'm not prepared to think in contradiction to the facts but most people are prepared for psychology, if not history, to be stronger than straightforward facts."

What will happen if you are proven wrong? Look you yourself said that you don't know how many will ultimately die from the coronavirus.

"Every year in Italy, 17,000 die and you yawn. I will continue to say what I'm saying when 17,000 and even more die from the coronavirus. If 170,000 die then I'll say I was wrong. But meanwhile 2,200 have died in Italy and a handful in Germany out of 80 million and the virus has been spreading around the world for two months. In Germany they were doing anything special until the hysteria forced them to."

So there is not a single brave leader who will stand up and say: I am behaving differently?

There isn't and there are even those who are exploiting it for their needs and that is the big concern, like the Hungarian prime minister and his remarks against Iranians. We know what is at the heart of the hysteria here and we know where it leads. It's like before the Yom Kippur War, there is a concept and there is no room for any other opinion. Life for everybody is destroyed but because of the anxiety everybody is falling into line with one opinion. It is an 'Orwellian' process: one people, one flag, one anxiety. Today all the hysterical people are waving the Italian flag. They are not prepared to listen to the numbers."

But in China the virus was stopped because of the actions that the government took?

Swine flu was stopped without the world being brought to a halt. Every virus creates antibodies. A government cannot stop a virus. What stops a virus is natural immunity. It's impossible to stop a virus by government decree. And here is a question: the Chinese claim that they have stopped the virus by the lockdown but the lockdown is finished and the virus is moving around freely, so how are morbidity and mortality not continuing? If the theory of lockdown was correct they would be continuing to die there. Who discusses this?"

"The government says, 'I've done my bit' But it forgets that our bodies are extremely smart and creates natural immunity and so the chain of infection is broken and in this way the virus is ended, otherwise it would continue.

The policy of lockdown is trying to prevent a collapse of the health system under the burden of treating the sick as well as fatalities, have you not taken that into account?


"It's called flattening the curve. If you look at the number of fatalities from flu in Italy, 17,000, it is clear that that is just the tip of the iceberg beneath which there are hundreds of thousands perhaps a million, who were sick but did not die. Even the patients that did not die needed treatment and the system did not collapse. So why should there be a collapse now? For 35 years I've been hearing that the health system in Israel is collapsing. Even during the regular flu season there is overloading in hospitals. Did anybody close down the country?"

Channel 13 declined to comment on the aforementioned claims. The Ministry of Health said, "Prof. Lass, who under his watch there was the difficult recurrence of polio (1988-1989) could cause damage with his irresponsible remarks which might harm public health in Israel."

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-lock ... 1001322696

[QatzelOk]

@Sivad OK, but USA still has more cases than China, which is close to the same size as USA, but with 4 times as many people.

What is a "case?"

Perhaps the Chinese tested far fewer people than the USA. This reduces 'cases.'

In any flu virus, there are hundreds of times more people carrying the virus than there are sick people, and very few of the carriers (or sick people) are at risk of dying.

So instead of throwing around words like "cases" which are a product of measuring and subjective definition, stick with mortality. China is ending COVID season with 3,500 mortalities, which is incredibly low for their population and environmental conditions (polluted like hell).

'persona non grata' in the TV interview studios.

Those TV studios are Panic 24-7, just like they were on 911, 911, 911.

[Politics_Observer]

@Godstud

@Sivad OK, but USA still has more cases than China, which is close to the same size as USA, but with 4 times as many people.

It's because Trump, in his quest to fund tax breaks for his rich white buddies, cut the pandemic team! Because you know, fuck human life and fuck everybody else, it's ONLY about TRUMP and money for his rich white buddies and that's the ONLY thing that matters to them. See how that works Godstud!? I imagine Putin and his buddies are now watching all of this, drinking vodka, in celebration of the handiwork of their fellow hackers and social media propaganda campaigns and watching how stupid Trump and his white followers are in helping to destroy America and how they are making themselves and the rest of us Americans look like total idiot dumbasses to the rest of the world.

I imagine they are having a good laugh at our expense and especially the expense of Trump and his white electorate followers, drinking vodka, slapping each on their backs while laughing and saying to one another "how will we ever top that one!!??" The rest of the world sees what is happening just not Trump and his white electorate followers. They are the ones who don't seem to have a grip on reality of how the joke is especially on them.

[Rich]

A big part of the United States' problem is New York. Well known as a sanctuary city it shouldn't surprise us that its a sanctuary for Chinavirus.

[Sivad]

What is a "case?"

In any flu virus, there are hundreds of times more people carrying the virus than there are sick people, and very few of the carriers (or sick people) are at risk of dying.

Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


MAR. 24, 2020

Because testing regimens across the world have varied tremendously, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 have been hard to pin down. But modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some welcome good news, even if the initial takeaway doesn’t seem so promising. According to hypothetical modeling from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that a minuscule number of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

[...]

Based on a susceptibility-infected-recovery model — a commonly used estimate in epidemiology — with data from case and death reports in the U.K. and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the U.K. government could have been sound. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said lead researcher Sunetra Gupta, referring to an academic report predicting that up to 250,000 could be killed if the government maintained its plan to suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” as the country’s chief scientific adviser put it. As of Monday, 87 people in the United Kingdom had died from the coronavirus; out of a total of 90,436 tests, 8,077 were positive.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

[Sivad]

German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the "authoritarian reaction" of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called "corona deaths" have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.

Professor Dr. rer. nat. Stefan W. Hockertz, born 1960, is an immunologist and toxicologist, now as CEO of the tpi consult GmbH, one of the European leading toxicological and pharmacological technology consulting companies. Previously, he served as Director and Professor of the Institute of Experimental and Clinical Toxicology at the University Medical School Eppendorf in Hamburg from 2003 to end of 2004.

Prior to joining the University, he served as Director of the Fraunhofer Institute of Toxicology and Environmental Medicine Hamburg from 1995 to 2002 and before as an investigator at the Fraunhofer Institute of Toxicology and Aerosol Research in Hannover from 1986 to 2001. He received his first academic appointment to Hannover University in 1985.

[SpecialOlympian]

China also did not have the issue of people having Covid parties, right wing media personalitis calling it fake, and a large swathe of idiots who outright rejected the idea of Covid's existence because they thought it was a leftist conspiracy to hurt Strong Daddy Trump.

Like lmfao so many people are going to die because they purposely attempted to contract it and it's like I'm finding it really difficult to feel sympathy for them. I don't want them to die. Hell, I wanted them to have adequate healthcare all along even though they support a party that is literally telling them to die for the economy. But it's like what the fuck, you purposely did everything in your power to get sick.

Hell one of the reasons we're going to have a higher than average death toll is because people 1) can't afford to see a doctor a doctor until it's too late, 2) they will avoid a hospital visit because that means instant bankruptcy for them and 3) they couldn't afford to have regular doctor visits that could have identified health issues that would make them more likely to die.

Greatest health system in the world lmao.

German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely.

Cool, thanks for the German audio on this English speaking forum.

The issue with Covid is that it incubates for a couple weeks while the infected can spread it to others. This results in large waves of sick people hitting the hospitals all at once, which stresses our hospital system beyond its ability to care for them. Italy is just telling the elderly to go home when they show up because they're doing triage and reserving their resources for younger patients.

And Sivad is a good example of why so many people are going to die, lmao.

[Politics_Observer]

@SpecialOlympian

China also did not have the issue of people having Covid parties, right wing media personalitis calling it fake, and a large swathe of idiots who outright rejected the idea of Covid's existence because they thought it was a leftist conspiracy to hurt Strong Daddy Trump.

I agree. I think that's a big reason why we have become the country with the most cornavirus cases even beating out China who have way more people than we do.

[Godstud]

Here is a very good report on it. The 4 minute report explains a lot, too.

Fact Check: US has done more coronavirus tests than South Korea, but not per person
Facts First: While the US has overtaken South Korea in total numbers of coronavirus tests administered, it has conducted far fewer tests per capita given the US population is more than six times larger than South Korea's.

"Yes, it is true that South Korea has run less tests as an absolute number. However, it is important to point out the huge difference in the population sizes," Aubree Gordon, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told CNN.

As of Wednesday, South Korea, which has a population of 51 million, had conducted 357,896 tests, based on reports from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Comparatively, the United States, with a population of 329 million, had administered at least 418,810 tests, according to the Covid Tracking Project, a group led by Alexis Madrigal, a staff writer for The Atlantic magazine, with more than 100 volunteers that compiles coronavirus testing data from state government websites and government officials.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/poli ... index.html

[Drlee]

This thread is about Trump's supposed sabotage of the response. I'll ask you again what does the Kennedy Center and Smithsonian have to do with it with the virus.

What do Boeing have to do with the virus? We can all see that you have no clue what this bill is about.

Perhaps its because the legislation would not stand on its own in a separate bill in which it belongs.

Nope. The USG already gave the Smithsonian nearly a billion dollars before this. Try again.

I never commented about those institutions other than to say their funding doesn't belong in a bill that's purpose is to address the pandemic.

Then neither does any bailout for individuals or corporations.

I believe that it is criticism for Trump and all those adding pork to this bill. As I have outlined in detail on this thread that there are other items like Green New Deal concepts thrown (exploited) in this bill at the same time. You conveniently forgot to cherry pick those.

Nonsense. Since you are so frequently defending Trump care to answer my question that you dodged? You know. The one quoting Trump and his enthusiastic support for the Kennedy Center subsidies.

It is sad how little you understand of the budget process and this bill. It is causing you to look really uninformed and mean spirited.

[Hindsite]

A big part of the United States' problem is New York. Well known as a sanctuary city it shouldn't surprise us that its a sanctuary for Chinavirus.

Governor Cuomo could have bought 16,000 ventilators five years ago to protect his state against a pandemic. That could be why New York has so many deaths because of the covid-19.

[Godstud]

Right, because he had a big crystal ball. Like the one Trump has, which is why he disbanded the pandemic team.

'Gross misjudgment': Experts say Trump's decision to disband pandemic team hindered coronavirus response
In May 2018, President Donald Trump’s biodefense preparedness adviser warned that a flu pandemic was the country’s No. 1 health security threat, and the U.S. was not prepared.

“We know that it cannot be stopped at the border,” Luciana Borio, director of medical and biodefense preparedness at the National Security Council, said at a symposium that day.

Borio left the Trump administration in 2019. Other high-level global health experts headed for the exits even earlier, after the White House dismantled the National Security Council’s global health security office.

The demise of that elite team is now under scrutiny as the Trump administration struggles to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump bristled when asked about his decision to disband the office at a news conference in the Rose Garden on Friday.

“I just think it's a nasty question,” the president responded. “And when you say ‘me,' I didn't do it. ... I don't know anything about it.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 5064881002

[Verv]

(1) It can easily be argued that the CDC should be the head point on this, @Godstud .

(2) It cannot be stopped entirely at the border, but the number of cases that come into the country could be reduced, and thus the amount of Coronavirus bubbles would be more likely to be controlled.

Dr. Fauci has spoken about this -- suggesting that imported cases will be a concern so we must not remove the restrictions too soon (USA Today).

I do not find this to be a compelling argument that Pres. Trump has failed us.

[Verv]

Here is a very good report on it. The 4 minute report explains a lot, too.

Fact Check: US has done more coronavirus tests than South Korea, but not per person
Facts First: While the US has overtaken South Korea in total numbers of coronavirus tests administered, it has conducted far fewer tests per capita given the US population is more than six times larger than South Korea's.

"Yes, it is true that South Korea has run less tests as an absolute number. However, it is important to point out the huge difference in the population sizes," Aubree Gordon, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told CNN.

As of Wednesday, South Korea, which has a population of 51 million, had conducted 357,896 tests, based on reports from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Comparatively, the United States, with a population of 329 million, had administered at least 418,810 tests, according to the Covid Tracking Project, a group led by Alexis Madrigal, a staff writer for The Atlantic magazine, with more than 100 volunteers that compiles coronavirus testing data from state government websites and government officials.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/poli ... index.html

... It's also true that South Korea was dealing with a massive bubble in Daegu.

This bubble began on February 10th (the Independent) -- a month and a half ago -- and the reason for such a massive number of tests was because they literally tested all 215,000 members of Shincheonji (the Korea Times), an easily identifiable group that released its membership roles. Not only were they easily identifiable, but because they were a cult that literally would meet have their members go to church 3-4 times a week, trying to get everyone there more than ten hours a week, they had little social life beyond this.

Hence, it was much easier to test such a vast number of people: they had a clear epidemeological trail...

and they had a over a month head start.

New York alone is now testing at the capacity that all of South Korea tested at, which is 10,000 per day (Business Insider).

New York's population is around 20 million (World Population Reveal, 2020), not even close to half of the population of South Korea, which stands at 51.25 million (World Population Review).

New York is doing a better job testing than South Korea, per capita, but will likely fail because their bubble is far less clear to track and the Korean and American are fundamentally different when it comes to how they interact, follow directions, and deal with the situation. So, I do not think they will be comparable.

[SpecialOlympian]

New York City's economy is equivalent to South Korea with half the population. They can do more testing becuase they are less reliant on our moronic federal government and dumbassed president.

They're actually treating Covid as a serious issue while the president and his supporters are asking you to please die so the Dow Jones can go back up.

The president's response to speaking with a bunch of governors was to make a bitchy tweet at NY saying it's not the government's job to be involved in helping people get ventilators.

Governor Cuomo could have bought 16,000 ventilators five years ago to protect his state against a pandemic. That could be why New York has so many deaths because of the covid-19.

I too blame the people who need vital medical equipment in a crisis. It's the best way to show support for our president.

[Hindsite]

New York City's economy is equivalent to South Korea with half the population. They can do more testing becuase they are less reliant on our moronic federal government and dumbassed president.

They're actually treating Covid as a serious issue while the president and his supporters are asking you to please die so the Dow Jones can go back up.

The president's response to speaking with a bunch of governors was to make a bitchy tweet at NY saying it's not the government's job to be involved in helping people get ventilators.

I too blame the people who need vital medical equipment in a crisis. It's the best way to show support for our president.

The point was that the governors are responsible for running their own state and purchasing what the state needs. Sure the Federal government is there to be called on for help in a crisis, but the governors should not neglect their responsibility and refuse to buy medical equipment, like ventilators when they had a chance, just because they had a pet project for which they preferred to use the money, as Gov. Cuomo did.

[SpecialOlympian]

Yes, we can minimize Trump's lack of leadership if we pretend this is 50 state problems instead of 1 national problem. You and I are on the same page Hindsite.

[Hindsite]

Yes, we can minimize Trump's lack of leadership if we pretend this is 50 state problems instead of 1 national problem. You and I are on the same page Hindsite.

I don't think you know much about leadership if you think Trump is not a good leader. I spent 20 years in the military and I know a leader when I see one. President Trump is definitely a leader. Do you understand chain of command in leadership?

[B0ycey]

The point was that the governors are responsible for running their own state and purchasing what the state needs. Sure the Federal government is there to be called on for help in a crisis, but the governors should not neglect their responsibility and refuse to buy medical equipment, like ventilators when they had a chance, just because they had a pet project for which they preferred to use the money, as Gov. Cuomo did.

Everybody was caught with their trousers down in regard to a lack of ventilators Hindsite. Buying 16000 unused ventilators isn't a vote winner until there is a global pandemic. And now everyone knows how important they are.