Local Localist wrote:But that's the best thing about Biden. Progressives were complacent while Obama was in office because he was a smooth talker. Biden is not a smooth talker. If Biden gets in, progressives will be facepalming every minute of it and complaining that he's too moderate. This will necessitate that the next Democratic presidential candidate, whether viewed as a 'moderate' or not, is significantly more progressive than Biden was.
In a way, Biden winning would be the perfect scenario to reset our broken 2 party system.
It is quite unlikely that Biden would run in 2024. For one, he is old and you already have people pointing that out today, let alone 4 years in the future.
Second, he is doing well more because of hate of trump and being a "bland" candidate that doesnt necesarily "angers" anyone rather than him being attractive to voters. So without Trump being the evil to fight in 2024 (hopefully) Biden would certainly be not attractive for progressive and certainly would not be attractive for most conservatives either. Furthermore, I suspect that he didnt want to run for president at all and he was sort of talked into doing so because he was seen as a natural reasonable option to "safely" fight Trump, precisely because he is a bland candidate that does not raise many flags on either side (something that he has compounded and taken advantage off by his strategy of staying low and letting Trump self-destruct).
In addition to all of this, Biden would virtually lose 90%+ of his political capital by 2024 even if he wins now. The economy will still be shit for years to come and he will have to share some of the stink despite the main issue being Trump's wrecking of the economy (but republicans will not stop blaming it on Biden for the next 4 years). Presumably the house republicans will remain the minority (they already are, it is a good assumption that they will continue to be the minority if Biden wins given the downballot democrat candidates) which means they will finally have the enemy that they need to fight against and raise election money. Then you have the progressives, that despite the apparent unification under Biden because they want to beat Trump, the moment Trump is defeated they will likely go after Biden. So I don't really think Biden should even consider running, I think if he wins it is in his best interest to say early that he will not seek re-election and hopefully he can try to groom a potential successful (presumably his VP).
I see a few scenarios playing out if he wins and asuming Trump doesnt pull any dictatorship coup shannanigans.
1.- Trumpism is alive and healthy even after Trump losing, Trump never loses his base and Republicans continue to be Trump's bitches for a long while as Trump errodes slowly the remains of the party.
2.- Trump's supporters mostly abbandon him and/or say they support him but don't pay attention to his political rhetoric anylonger and just continue to vote "republican classic"
3.- The Republican party flat outs implodes and divides, probably into Trumpists, classic republicans and Liberitarians.
3.1 - This could lead to the Democratic party also splitting, without a solid unified formidable adversary you could have progressives splitting with the neoliberals. There is a decent chance that we could see the 2 party system come to an end and end up with more parties. I think the chances would be slim but real.
Eitherway, this is perhaps the last chance for the republican party to do some rebranding and try to separate themselves from some of their most retarded ideology to appeal to future generations.
- By Pants-of-dog
- By Rancid
- By Rugoz