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#15148444
Rancid wrote:It is very interesting.

I believe both are true. BLMs 99% were peaceful, and the capitol riot, 99% were also peaceful.

EDIT: but that 1% is really really nasty.


Peaceful? It was a coup attempt. No doubt most protesters wanted to stop the count of the electoral votes.
#15148459
Rugoz wrote:Peaceful? It was a coup attempt. No doubt most protesters wanted to stop the count of the electoral votes.


Have you seen the interviews with some of the people that were there? There were old ladies that were just hanging out like it was a picnic taking selfies and shit. Some college students as well that thought it was just cool to be there. These are the useful idiots that the really nasty people where using as cover basically.

So yea, many of them were there because they thought it was cool to be there, not because they had the intent to cause violence.

Don't misunderstand me, even those nice little old ladies, and dummy college students should be punished fully because this isn't a joke or a game. Their stupidity is no excuse. I'm just saying, there were a lot of dummies that did not have mal intent there too. Again though, they should still be treated as though they did have mal intent, they must be made an example. you do not fuck with the democratic process like that. You do not fuck with the constitution that way.
#15148462
@blackjack21 , in addressing my main concern, that of maintaining civic peace and order, you began with discussing the Liberal display of their attitude towards concern for these things;

Oh, I completely agree. I just think that started coming to an end back in the Obama era when Obama himself was telling the SEIU to go to town halls and get in the faces of people opposed to ObamaCare. During Trump's administration, Maxine Waters was calling for that against Republican leadership and scarcely backed off when Steve Scalise was shot by an anti-Trumper, or when Rand Paul as attacked by a neighbor breaking a rib and puncturing his lung. Nancy Pelosi herself mused why she wasn't seeing "uprisings." They again did that when the RNC had an assembly at the White House, and Antifa and BLM actors attacked people leaving the White House. They further held a thoroughly uncivil rally at Lafayette Park across the street from the White House, hurling anything they could get their hands on at the Secret Service--setting fire to St. John's Church. People here were horrified when Trump used the National Guard to clear the square.


Yes, I agree that the hypocrisy is breathtaking in it's utter lack of decent self reflection on the part of any liberal I have heard on the subject. The question is then; what has the Right in America been doing about all this?
Charlottesville was a classic, because Unite the Right showed up unexpected and held a little rally by the Robert E. Lee statue. The cops were called. The crowd were told to leave. They left. Peaceful. Then, they asked for a permit. The mayor got involved in organizing a counter-protest. They rallied. The left rallied in there area. The left was disruptive and unlawful, and 22 of them were arrested. The right broke no laws, and none were arrested. When they wanted to rally again, the mayor of Charlottesville denied their permit. They had to sue with the help of the ACLU, and won the permit in court. Then the mayor of Charlottesville and the governor of Virginia got law enforcement to take a hands off approach to the left, who got a permit again to be well away from the Unite the Right folks. So what happened? The leftists abandoned the place where they were permitted to assemble, broke the law blocking streets marching up to where Unite the Right was, started attacking them, and the police declared it an unlawful assembly. A bunch of fights broke out. Later a guy with a history of mental illness rammed a crowd of leftists illegally marching down the street, killing Heather Heyer, and these guys went absolutely bonkers.


I remember, I was here on PoFo when things went down in Charlottesville, and it was an interesting counterpoint to my thinking at the time. Biden says he ran for the 2020 election on the basis of Charlottesville, and I have no reason to doubt him.

Let's not forget all the riots of 2020, when we kept being assured by news media with flames in the direct background and clouds of smoke in the air, that the protests were mostly peaceful. Death Toll Rises To An Estimated 30 Victims Since ‘Mostly Peaceful Protests’ Began<--that was by mid-August.


I was particularly angry at the hypocrisy of basically allowing mass protests and riots at a time when we've been going through a terrible pandemic. People talk about President Trump having COVID-19 deaths on his hands, but what about the deaths which can be laid to BLM/Antifa Covid-19 superspreader events, who is responsible for that irresponsibility?


Yet, the Democrat leadership were taking a knee in the Capitol rotunda.


And yet a few months later, they were cowering and running in panic from a mob. Cheap theatrics will be forgotten, while the real measure of them when the moment cannot be staged or spun will remain.

Even here, we have the Capitol police shooting and killing an unarmed civilian, and not a bit of outcry because she was likely a Trump supporter and white. Frankly, it's absurd to believe these people are upset about January 6th and sincerely believed everything that occured throughout 2020 was a-okay. Violence against people they disagree with is something they are okay with and even encourage. When violence comes their way or to anyone supporting them they flip out in the most uncontrollable way imaginable.


Of course. And so they will raise up enemies to themselves that will respond in kind, I'm afraid.

That's why I loath the neoconservatives now too. That jack wagon Ben Shapiro literally tried to compare it to 9/11.


I compare it to 9-11 too, except not for reasons Shapiro gives i'm sure. 9-11 was a massive failure of the Deep State on all levels, which they have tried to cover with putting out all sorts of conspiracy theories which assume their competence at the cost of the public's goodwill for the institutions of the Deep State. Don't get me wrong, if I were in government I'd be sure to be in one of those institutions. But I'd make competence a hallmark of my being there.

Well, the establishment was never honest with the American people about the reasons for 9/11. We were told by the Bush administration, "They hate us for our freedoms." That wasn't the case. They wanted US troops out of Saudi Arabia, and many radical Saudis hated US support for Israel.


That's true, although long term we have Islamist groups out there that aim at eventual world conquest, by hook or by crook, who would be enemies in any case.

Things have changed dramatically in the Middle East since then. In 2001, Dubai was a backwater with maybe one big building. Now it has more skyscrapers than Manhattan. It's mind blowing to see it. Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are that way too. Saudi Arabia is not far behind. The religious police have been curtailed there, women are allowed to drive, and unmarried boyfriends and girlfriends can hold hands walking down the street without getting beaten by the religious police. I'm sure if they kiss in public they'll face jailtime, but it's changing.


The change concerns me though, for a multitude of reasons which boil down to it being a kind of ''Indian Summer''.

However, the US had a huge military presence at King Khalid and Dharan, that frankly left a lot of people very uncomfortable. Osama bin Laden among them. My view is that the US military wasn't going to leave after Saddam Hussein telegraphed a willingness to invade lower Saudi Arabia by his invasion of Khafji. So as otherwise non-intuitive as it was to invade Iraq in the wake of 9/11, the reason is because they wanted the entire Iraqi regime taken down to ensure Saudi security and they were just unwilling to be honest with the American people, because "blood for oil" wasn't something they were willing to fight for. So they have been literally lying to the American people about almost everything for quite a long time now.


Oddly enough, and I've probably mentioned it before, I have read people who make a strong case that the Bush Administration was not lying to the world and American people about Saddam Hussein and WMD's, but was actually a victim of the Deep State and an operation to overthrow or wound the Bush Administration. One author and book is ''Shadow Warriors'' by Ken Timmerman;

http://www.kentimmerman.com/shadow-warriors.htm



Really good book and author, the parallels to today are interesting, as are the reasons why Bush succeeded where Trump has not, in my opinion.


Well, it even left Kevin McCarthy--the Republican House Minority Leader--as the British like to say, gobsmacked. What he couldn't believe is that they came with American flags shouting "USA, USA, USA." Even the Republican leadership doesn't realize how disconnected they are from the American people, their own voters no less.


To be somewhat fair, I think this is something that hasn't been seen in a long time.
But it falls flat, because these people are self serving. Mitch McConnell's speech was okay until he started claiming they won't put up with lawlessness in the Capitol, at which point I started laughing. These people disagree with Trump, so they've been going on criminal investigation after criminal investigation. Republicans disagreed with how Obama and Clinton scuttled the diplomatic mission in Benghazi and when asking for emails actually discovered a crime, which if any lower level person had done something similar, they would be in jail. Do you honestly think if you set up your own email server at home at any other level of the State Department, and it had been hacked and classified information lost, you would not be prosecuted? It's frankly unbelievable. Do you think if you were a lower level person and defied a Congressional subpoena and then started deleting your emails that it would go unpunished? Do you think if the FBI was interviewing you it would be outside the context of 1001 false statements, that your co-conspirators could claim attorney-client privilege (noting that they certainly vitiated that with Michael Cohen), or that the FBI would help you destroy your cell phones? It's frankly unbelievable.


Sure, they're corrupt as hell. And what's more, because of partisan and tribal affiliations, I don't think people (even on PoFo!) care about the corruption unless it's to point out the corruption of the ''other guys''. Corruption has to be addressed and all the criminals taken down, and the graft destroyed root and branch.

It's further amazing that they allege Trump had some ties to the Russian government--coming up with virtually no evidence--when Bill Clinton was making $500k for a desultory speech in Moscow. The decided lack of curiosity there is interesting. When Russian oligarchs give over $15M to the Clinton Foundation, who generally disburses the funds to their political cronies for highly paid and insignificant work for the foundation, it doesn't even raise an eyebrow with these people. They threaten Michael Flynn and his son with prosecution for ostensibly lobbying for the Turkish government because they had contact with someone with "ties" to the Turkish government, while Hunter Biden was clearly lobbying his father and John Kerry on behalf of Burisma, and got his father to usurp his power to have a prosecutor investigating Burisma fired? Again, any lower level functionary who did this would be prosecuted under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Yet, these people sit there all stony faced and say, "We will not tolerate lawlessness." They are the epitome of lawlessness. By what authority does the United States have troops in Syria? Not NATO. Not the UN. Not a Congressional authorization to use military force in a foreign country. Yet, if the president tries to pull troops out of Syria, there's all sorts of outcry and there isn't even a shred of legal authority whatsoever to have troops there. And Mitch McConnell...why, he won't tolerate lawlessness in the Capitol? Ben Shapiro--this is just like 9/11? Really? Nearly 3000 people died on 9/11. These people live in what sociologists call a "total environment," a sort of reality of their own--utterly disconnected from the rest of society.


And what happens in that environment is that the higher up people are in their hierarchy, the less they actually know (because subordinates only tell them what reinforces their biases)and then they make ever more terrible decisions based on their ever greater ill-informed reasonings. Ultimately they reach a point of peak delusion and stupidity and everything collapses. Unless some reasonably competent strong man takes over completely before this singularity is reached.
#15148464
Rancid wrote:Have you seen the interviews with some of the people that were there? There were old ladies that were just hanging out like it was a picnic taking selfies and shit. Some college students as well that thought it was just cool to be there. These are the useful idiots that the really nasty people where using as cover basically.

So yea, many of them were there because they thought it was cool to be there, not because they had the intent to cause violence.

Don't misunderstand me, even those nice little old ladies, and dummy college students should be punished fully because this isn't a joke or a game. Their stupidity is no excuse. I'm just saying, there were a lot of dummies that did not have mal intent there too. Again though, they should still be treated as though they did have mal intent, they must be made an example. you do not fuck with the democratic process like that. You do not fuck with the constitution that way.


My point is that the intention is hardly irrelevant. As far as I can tell this protest was much more a threat to the system* than the BLM protests ever were, peaceful or not.

*Of course it wasn't a real threat, just comparatively.
#15148468
Rugoz wrote:
My point is that the intention is hardly irrelevant. As far as I can tell this protest was much more a threat to the system* than the BLM protests ever were, peaceful or not.

*Of course it wasn't a real threat, just comparatively.


I agree, which is why I said they should all be punished as though they had complete intent to take over the US government on Trump's behalf. Their actual intent is irrelevant as you say.

I was just pointing out that there were a lot of dummies in that crowd.
#15148475
Rancid wrote:I agree, which is why I said they should all be punished as though they had complete intent to take over the US government on Trump's behalf.


Legally that is not possible and I don't think it would be a smart thing to do either way.

The most "depressing" thing about all this is that literally nobody talks about democratic reform. This is unlike the yellow west protests in France for example, where democratic reform was high up on the agenda (nothing of substance ultimately came out of Macron's citizens' convention due to the way it was organized, but at least it's being talked about). In the US talks about reform seem to be limited to academic circles, it's almost completely absent from the political sphere at the national level as far as I can tell.
#15148476
Rugoz wrote:Legally that is not possible and I don't think it would be a smart thing to do either way.


DROP THE HAMMER!

Rugoz wrote:The most "depressing" thing about all this is that literally nobody talks about democratic reform. This is unlike the yellow west protests in France for example, where democratic reform was high up on the agenda (nothing of substance ultimately came out of Macron's citizens' convention due to the way it was organized, but at least it's being talked about). In the US talks about reform seem to be limited to academic circles, it's almost completely absent from the political sphere at the national level as far as I can tell.


The US is a flawed democracy. Always has been : points gun at you :
#15148486
Rugoz wrote:My point is that the intention is hardly irrelevant. As far as I can tell this protest was much more a threat to the system* than the BLM protests ever were, peaceful or not.

*Of course it wasn't a real threat, just comparatively.


Why? I see both of them as actually being intimately related, since they help to set precedents, and open the door for gradual escalation in how people act. The threat doesn't lie in the actions themselves, but in what becomes acceptable as a result of a ridiculously partisan evaluation of both (where the same type of action can be good or evil based exclusively on who does it), a recipe for disaster for any republic as I think @Potemkin was trying to point out by drawing the analogy with the burning of the Roman Senate in 52 BC. It makes you wonder if anacyclosis is spot on, and I think it will depend a lot on what Joe Biden does in his upcoming administration and if he can resist the pressures of the hard liners within the Democrats.
#15148491
Rancid wrote:Yea, that is the problem. Both the BLM riots and these riots have many of the same elements and dynamics at play. However, although they are very similar, they are still different.

BLM was the result of a general frustration on policing in America. It's flaw is that it still has no clear leadership (In contrast, the civil rights movement had clear leadership). This is the reason the goals of BLM change depending on who you ask. It can go from defund the police, to reform the police, to disarm the police, to fund community programs, to train the police better, to communist revolution, etc. This makes it easy for conservatives to dismiss/bash BLM because it's a hot mess. They just have to pick out the most extreme messages coming out of those protests and then attach that. That's why you hear people call BLMers a bunch of Marxists.

CAPITALISM has created Trump!

The riot (or rather, Trumpism, which is what lead to the riot) is the result of frustrations as well. It's mostly the frustrations of a group of people that are losing their status/power/privilege in today's world. Namely, white males that are working class. The world is passing them by. As we all know, there was a time in America that you could own a home, two cars, and put two kids through college with only a high school diploma and a trade job (truck driver, carpenter, electrician, mechanic, plumber, etc). This is what they think about when they hear "MAGA". Of course, most non-whites, hear Jim Crow, KKK, racism, etc. when they hear the phrase "MAGA". The experience of minorities back in "the good old days" of America was very different than that of the white working class (Anyway, this is for another post/thread). So basically, white Trimpists are grasping on to hope that somehow, someone like Trump can restore those days of the past. That is, the days where you have a sweet factory job or whatever, and can live a comfortable life without even having to go to college or try very hard to get a job. I think that is the core of their frustrations. The problem is, this is a piped dream; The global economy is fundamentally different. It cannot support those old ways anymore, in fact, Capitalism sees those sweet easy jobs that pay well as an inefficiency, and thus, capitalism, over the decades has optimized those inefficiencies away. Capitalism's goal was to wipe away those easy high school diploma jobs that pay well. It was successful, and working class whites didn't see this was happening under their noses. Hence, they are pissed off now. I think their flaw is, it is impossible for anyone, even Trump to somehow rewind capitalism. This is the hopeless dream they follow. Now of course, there are many non-whites that also support Trump, and I think their reasons are similar. We all know what the American dream is, and we all want it. Perhaps "MAGA" means making the American dream attainable to them too; so they get on board with Trumpism too. However, capitalism has optimized away the American dream. They too, will be disappointed.

In conclusion, Trump supporters are tragically hopeful for something that has a 0% chance of ever happening. Most of these trump supporters do not realize this, and will only get angrier and angrier; and many will get extreme. BLMers actually have an attainable goal, they just need leadership and to better define that goal.


YES YES YES. You actually get it Rancid. That is why I loooooovvvvvveeeee you. What people don't understand is that BLM and Trumpists have the same goal. They issue is both see the other as the enemy. And that is what polarisation does to you. Whereas the left see the issue as historic disadvantagement, the right see the issue as immigration competition. Neither can see the issue is actually greed. It was landownership that caused the divide, the search for profits that widened and extended the divide, and poverty that clouds the divide. The issue is the system - or more specifically the system is governed by those who hold the wealth and as such set the rules.
#15148494
wat0n wrote:Why? I see both of them as actually being intimately related, since they help to set precedents, and open the door for gradual escalation in how people act. The threat doesn't lie in the actions themselves, but in what becomes acceptable as a result of a ridiculously partisan evaluation of both (where the same type of action can be good or evil based exclusively on who does it), a recipe for disaster for any republic as I think @Potemkin was trying to point out by drawing the analogy with the burning of the Roman Senate in 52 BC. It makes you wonder if anacyclosis is spot on, and I think it will depend a lot on what Joe Biden does in his upcoming administration and if he can resist the pressures of the hard liners within the Democrats.


Storming, vandalizing and looting the capitol and disrupting the count of electoral votes is pretty much peak escalation.

Of course the two are related, but there's still a different quality to them.

Biden can't do much. IMO the US needs an overhaul of the system, starting with multiple parties instead of two. The two-party system doesn't have a moderating effect anymore, instead it drives polarization.
#15148516
Every person who entered that building should be found and prosecuted when possible. They should all get jail time and a large fine as a minimum. Whenever possible they should be charged with sedition. It is time to define peaceful protest and draw a dark line between it and something worse.

Putting a few little old ladies in jail for a month or two could not hurt at all.

Meanwhile the silencing of Trump is nothing short of outstanding. Sadly, that is what it took to get a few republicans to grow a backbone and slither onto the side of democracy. We'll see how long it takes for them to go back to their racist, seditious ways.
#15148529
Rugoz wrote:Storming, vandalizing and looting the capitol and disrupting the count of electoral votes is pretty much peak escalation.

Of course the two are related, but there's still a different quality to them.


There is, in the sense that taking over the Federal Capitol is indeed a more serious challenge to the US Government system since it's the highest branch of government. But one quality that remains the same is the intimidation of elected officials as means to impose views on a specific matter, which is also why it's a form of sedition in a republic.

It's not peak escalation though, things can definitely get worse.

Rugoz wrote:Biden can't do much. IMO the US needs an overhaul of the system, starting with multiple parties instead of two. The two-party system doesn't have a moderating effect anymore, instead it drives polarization.


I don't know. A dysfunctional multiparty system can also be a disaster, hardline positions also seem to have been increasing in multiparty democracies throughout the 2010s (it's been happening in several hispanic countries, including Chile and Spain - both of which have radically different types of multiparty systems, and Government systems for that matter - it also seems to be happening in several European countries + Israel in a different form, namely, the inability of parties to form stable coalitions and having many elections in the span of a few years), and the US has had more than two parties before (although usually in the form of two large ones and a smaller one that does manage to get a bunch of elected officials are the Federal level).

I don't know how to solve this, to be honest. But it's far from exclusive to the US, it's a problem in several Western countries at this point (maybe in Switzerland things are working better?). For the US, it just happens to be so much easier to tell since it's a hard two party system and had previously reached a rather clear consensus on how to conduct business on multiple fronts. I actually think the American system has quite a few advantages, not because of being a two party system but because of its federalism. Having several major issues being defined largely at the State level rather than Federally helps to defuse tensions since different States can have different policies and people can freely move to States where the majority better fits their worldview if they really can't bear how things work where they live, rather than turn the Presidential elections into a life or death business (which quite obviously helps drive polarization). That's also a Swiss advantage, I think.
#15148532
wat0n wrote:I don't know. A dysfunctional multiparty system can also be a disaster,


Agree, look at India....

I don't think a multi-party system is the panacea.
#15148549
wat0n wrote:I don't know. A dysfunctional multiparty system can also be a disaster, hardline positions also seem to have been increasing in multiparty democracies throughout the 2010s (it's been happening in several hispanic countries, including Chile and Spain - both of which have radically different types of multiparty systems, and Government systems for that matter - it also seems to be happening in several European countries + Israel in a different form, namely, the inability of parties to form stable coalitions and having many elections in the span of a few years), and the US has had more than two parties before (although usually in the form of two large ones and a smaller one that does manage to get a bunch of elected officials are the Federal level).

I don't know how to solve this, to be honest. But it's far from exclusive to the US, it's a problem in several Western countries at this point (maybe in Switzerland things are working better?). For the US, it just happens to be so much easier to tell since it's a hard two party system and had previously reached a rather clear consensus on how to conduct business on multiple fronts. I actually think the American system has quite a few advantages, not because of being a two party system but because of its federalism. Having several major issues being defined largely at the State level rather than Federally helps to defuse tensions since different States can have different policies and people can freely move to States where the majority better fits their worldview if they really can't bear how things work where they live, rather than turn the Presidential elections into a life or death business (which quite obviously helps drive polarization). That's also a Swiss advantage, I think.


A two party system only works if both parties converge towards the median voter. I don't think that's still the case in the US. Probably due to the rural/urban divide.

AFAIK political scientists consider a medium number of parties optimal (though I'm not familiar with the literature).

Due to the presidency there would be no need for stable government coalitions in the US, different coalitions could form depending on the issue.

It's obviously not a silver bullet, but if you ask me the situation in the US looks quite dire at the national level. Thank god to federalism indeed.

It's a development one can see in polls as well:
Image
https://www.cam.ac.uk/system/files/report2020_003.pdf

The change from the mid-1990s to 2020 is probably more relevant than the absolute values. It's certainly also situational. The drop for the UK is probably due to Brexit. Switzerland was in the midst of an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. Etc.
#15148550
Potemkin wrote:I would also like to add that Mexico had (and still has, to a great extent) the same sort of federal system as the United States - this is why the Mexican Empire didn't last very long in the early 19th century; the states rebelled against it, and it vanished in the blink of an eye. Yet that loose federal system ended up being controlled by one man - Porfirio Diaz. He maintained his dictatorship through a network of cronies and mutual favours, and sheer political cunning. The 'Porfiriato', in fact, gives us some idea of what an American dictatorship would likely look like. Trump's phone call to Georgia - laughably incompetent and unsuccessful as it was - would be the probable modus operandi of such a system. And after about 40 years of oppression and corruption, it would probably be overthrown in a bloody revolution.... Lol.

Trump'd be like a Latin American dictator in the long term indeed, however, in reality his short-lasting rule makes him more like Maximilian I of Mexico, who was supported by both foreign powers and Conservative Party monarchists while he could never gain full control of the nation and stop the civil war.
#15148554
Rugoz wrote:A two party system only works if both parties converge towards the median voter. I don't think that's still the case in the US. Probably due to the rural/urban divide.

AFAIK political scientists consider a medium number of parties optimal (though I'm not familiar with the literature).

Due to the presidency there would be no need for stable government coalitions in the US, different coalitions could form depending on the issue.

It's obviously not a silver bullet, but if you ask me the situation in the US looks quite dire at the national level. Thank god to federalism indeed.

It's a development one can see in polls as well:
Image
https://www.cam.ac.uk/system/files/report2020_003.pdf

The change from the mid-1990s to 2020 is probably more relevant than the absolute values. It's certainly also situational. The drop for the UK is probably due to Brexit. Switzerland was in the midst of an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. Etc.


That trend can be seen in multiparty systems in the chart such as Spain - and I wouldn't be so sure about what you are saying regarding having coalitions for some issues and not others. I can speak from experience, since Chile is currently a hyper-presidential republic with a dysfunctional multiparty system at this stage. Basically, Congress was deadlocked and it's hard to pass any meaningful legislation at the national level until the riots in 2019, and only as means to stop the crisis (and nothing else). Chile is also a very centralized unitary State, so that deadlock was one short term reason for the riots for that matter.

Otherwise, I agree. The urban/rural divide is probably the largest one in the country, because it operates in many fundamental levels (political, economic, cultural, ideological, even ethnically and, to a lesser extent, linguistically). Basically, as things are now, the US consists on two different countries that are pasted together.

@Beren well, the question might be simply capturing a view about the economic conditions in the transition from communism, right?
#15148566
More detailed change over time for Anglo-Saxon countries:
Image

Beren wrote:So Hungarians are less dissatisfied with democracy now when they barely have it. :lol:

For most people it's probably synonymous with "are you dissatisfied with the government/the system".
#15148571
Rugoz wrote:For most people it's probably synonymous with "are you dissatisfied with the government/the system".

They don't miss democracy much either way, the only problem is that their bullshit authoritarian regimes collapse from time to time.
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