- 15 Oct 2023 21:16
#15291175
With a gigantic state population of 40 million, there has been a mass exodus going on of Californians emptying out into other states.
Just for relative comparison to give you some idea how big this population is, California contains enough people to be able to fill up all the surrounding states it shares a border with 3 times over.
There's been a mass exodus of people out of the state, and yet the population has been growing even faster than it can empty out.
Could it be that these people were displaced by the incoming new population?
Millions of people leaving the state in what has been termed a "mass exodus" and yet the state's population still managed to grow 66% since the year 1980.
What has caused California’s transformation from a “pull in” to a “push out” state? The data have revealed several crucial drivers. One is chronic economic adversity (in most years, California unemployment is above the national average). Another is density: the Los Angeles and Orange County region now has a population density of 6,999.3 per square mile—well ahead of New York or Chicago. Dense coastal areas are a source of internal migration, as people seek more space in California’s interior, as well as migration to other states. A third factor is state and local governments’ constant fiscal instability, which sends at least two discouraging messages to businesses and individuals. One is that they cannot count on state and local governments to provide essential services—much less, tax breaks or other incentives. Second, chronically out-of-balance budgets can be seen as tax hikes waiting to happen.
The Great California Exodus: A Closer Look | Manhattan Institute
44% of CA residents do not speak English in their homes (as of 2018 ).
A little more than half of the 15 to 20-year-olds in the state are now Hispanic (as of 2020 ).
We are talking about a state with more people than the entire country of Canada, so this was not just some small movement of people. (Due to so many people moving there, California's population exceeded that of Canada beginning in 1984. This despite Canada's population also growing due to immigration during this time)
Have any of you heard before of a phenomena called "chain migration" ? A group of people move from area A to area B. That then pushes the people out of area B and they move to area C.
One could say that certain populations has been displaced, and that massive migrations of people can end up having a "trickle-down" effect, in turn causing new movements of people.
Californians fleeing for Texas so fast U-Haul runs out of trucks for them: report (January 2022)
"The Californization of the Texas Housing Market"
The Wall Street Journal, by Adolfo Flores, October 10, 2023
" Migration from more expensive states has pushed home prices out of reach for many locals; 'a very hard market for first-time buyers'
Texas has long had a reputation as an affordable place to live, in large part because homeownership stayed within reach for the middle class.
Now the state is being walloped by the same forces that have made homes a lot less affordable in many cities previously known for reasonable prices.
"A lot of people were getting priced out of Austin and started moving into San Antonio," said San Antonio real-estate agent Marie Crabb. "They were getting priced out, according to them, by people from California. It was an interesting trickle-down effect."
The influx of newcomers to San Antonio, coupled with a limited supply of homes, has driven up prices. The city’s top employers, predominantly in the military, education and healthcare sectors, provide stable but not high-paying jobs, contributing to the affordability challenge, said Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing-market research firm Zonda based in Newport Beach, California.
"This is when San Antonio started to face some of the issues of the other markets," Wolf said. "Now home prices were aligned with some of the newcomers." "
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/tex ... ty-a50c78f
One study found that:
"An immigration inflow equal to 1% of a city's population is associated with increases in average rents and housing values of about 1%. The results suggest an economic impact that is an order of magnitude bigger than that found in labor markets."
Immigration and Housing Rents in American Cities, Albert Saiz, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton, June 2003
The state of Texas is 68% bigger by land area than California, yet California currently has 33% more people. (as of 2021)
Due to factors concerning climate, topography and geographic, Texas also has somewhat more "desirable livable" area than California, separate from just the statistic of land area.
A short history for those who may not be aware...
In the state of California, Los Angeles began to "decline" beginning in the second half of the 80s. And as far back as the late 60s and early 70s, cheap housing could be found in San Francisco. It was the center of the hippie movement. The hippies began moving away (many further north) starting in the mid-70s due to rising housing prices. San Francisco did not begin to start becoming unaffordable until the 90s, but really started becoming absurdly unaffordable after about 2002 or 2004.
Back in the late 70s, many people who came from New York City to visit San Francisco used to remark how clean the whole city appeared; obviously it's changed to becoming one of the filthiest cities today, a result of several decades of mass immigration, overcrowding, and an out of control homelessness problem.
I've read in the past (around 1998 to 2005) there was a lot of resentment by people in Oregon against all the Californians moving up there and turning their state into concrete suburban subdivisions and tract house developments. So one group of people pushes another group of people, and then those people in turn put pressure on another group of people in surrounding outlying areas.
It's no coincidence the unemployment rates in the three states bordering California are so high. There is space for people to move to, if they travel far enough, but not necessarily jobs for them all in those areas.
California Mexican man says: "There were a lot of white and black people here, but they all disappeared"
VIDEO: 'Mexican man says white n black people disappearing from California starring NAnthony777' , ¿Ron Mexico?
'In this video, George conversates with NAnthony777 about how other than Mexican people (ie blacks and whites) are disappearing from NAnthony's local area.' (video was posted around 2017 )
He is in the Downey and Norwalk area.
See this map. All those different colored regions on the map have the same population (about the same number of people living within them). California is colored red on the map.
https://i.insider.com/51e03b816bb3f7c54 ... &auto=webp
(Map comes from "California Is Insanely Huge", Business Insider, Walt Hickey, Jul 12, 2013 )
This article says that 700,000 residents from California have moved to Texas between the time of just 2010 to 2020.
Californians Could Ruin Texas--But Not the Way You Might Think, Christopher Hooks, by Christopher Hooks, March 2021
"Lone Star State leaders have worried about transplants importing West Coast values and politics here. But they've largely ignored the more pressing challenges newcomers are bringing with them."
The residents from California are having a disproportionate effect on Texas's population and housing market because they're almost always moving to be close to the bigger city areas.
"Texas politicians love to characterize California as a 'failed state'. But a major reason for the emigration from California, in addition to high taxes, is high housing prices. Expensive real estate is [...] mainly the result of so many Americans wanting to live in California to begin with. Though the Golden State’s population growth has tapered off in recent years, it was much greater than Texas's over the past century. From 1920 to 2020, California's population exploded from 3.4 million to almost 40 million. Texas, which has about 65 percent more land area than California, grew from 4.6 million to 29 million.
The primary advantages Texas has historically had over its competitors are its cheap housing and even cheaper cost of living. But those advantages are slipping. When Californians leave the Bay Area in large numbers for Austin and Dallas, the cost of living goes up here, and overpriced housing markets on the West Coast relax a bit. Texas cities are already struggling with rapidly rising rents and housing prices as well as an uptick in homelessness, and more and more natives are being pushed into outlying areas. "Texas is going through all these same issues that California and New York have had," says Steven Pedigo, the director of the Urban Lab at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, at the University of Texas at Austin. "We're just late to the party."
In the Austin metro area, the median rent increased 45 percent from 2010 to 2020. In metro Dallas, it jumped 49 percent; in Houston, 34 percent. "For Californians and people from New York, Texas is quite affordable," Pedigo says. "But for people who grew up in Texas and for immigrant populations, this is an increasingly unaffordable place." "
Locals are being priced out of Texas and Florida. Here's where they're looking for affordable homes instead.
Home prices in Texas and Florida have increased 30% and 42% since 2019, according to Realtor.com.
For Texans, "the Midwest has emerged as popular recently because it is just by and large the most affordable region," Hannah Jones, Realtor.com's economic research analyst said.
Floridians are searching for homes in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Texas has long been the go-to migration spot for Americans seeking reasonably priced housing and a low cost of living. But as 884,000 people moved to the state between April 2020 and July 2022, according to Census data, the cost of housing soared.
According to Realtor.com, searches for properties within Florida are down, while searches from Florida for properties in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama are up.
Compass real-estate agent Holly Meyer Lucas, who's based in South Florida, said she has seen dozens of middle-class, native Floridians sell their homes to newcomers and move out-of-state since 2018, when tax reforms drove many high earners to the no-income-tax state. Now, they can't afford to get back in.
"What's happening is if they want to come back to our area, their $800 a month mortgage is not an option anymore," she said. "They have to pay nearly $4,000 a month to rent the same type of home."
Locals are being priced out of Texas and Florida. Here's where they're looking for affordable homes instead, Business Insider, Kelsey Neubauer (kneubauer@insider.com), October 15, 2023
Just for relative comparison to give you some idea how big this population is, California contains enough people to be able to fill up all the surrounding states it shares a border with 3 times over.
There's been a mass exodus of people out of the state, and yet the population has been growing even faster than it can empty out.
Could it be that these people were displaced by the incoming new population?
Millions of people leaving the state in what has been termed a "mass exodus" and yet the state's population still managed to grow 66% since the year 1980.
What has caused California’s transformation from a “pull in” to a “push out” state? The data have revealed several crucial drivers. One is chronic economic adversity (in most years, California unemployment is above the national average). Another is density: the Los Angeles and Orange County region now has a population density of 6,999.3 per square mile—well ahead of New York or Chicago. Dense coastal areas are a source of internal migration, as people seek more space in California’s interior, as well as migration to other states. A third factor is state and local governments’ constant fiscal instability, which sends at least two discouraging messages to businesses and individuals. One is that they cannot count on state and local governments to provide essential services—much less, tax breaks or other incentives. Second, chronically out-of-balance budgets can be seen as tax hikes waiting to happen.
The Great California Exodus: A Closer Look | Manhattan Institute
44% of CA residents do not speak English in their homes (as of 2018 ).
A little more than half of the 15 to 20-year-olds in the state are now Hispanic (as of 2020 ).
We are talking about a state with more people than the entire country of Canada, so this was not just some small movement of people. (Due to so many people moving there, California's population exceeded that of Canada beginning in 1984. This despite Canada's population also growing due to immigration during this time)
Have any of you heard before of a phenomena called "chain migration" ? A group of people move from area A to area B. That then pushes the people out of area B and they move to area C.
One could say that certain populations has been displaced, and that massive migrations of people can end up having a "trickle-down" effect, in turn causing new movements of people.
Californians fleeing for Texas so fast U-Haul runs out of trucks for them: report (January 2022)
"The Californization of the Texas Housing Market"
The Wall Street Journal, by Adolfo Flores, October 10, 2023
" Migration from more expensive states has pushed home prices out of reach for many locals; 'a very hard market for first-time buyers'
Texas has long had a reputation as an affordable place to live, in large part because homeownership stayed within reach for the middle class.
Now the state is being walloped by the same forces that have made homes a lot less affordable in many cities previously known for reasonable prices.
"A lot of people were getting priced out of Austin and started moving into San Antonio," said San Antonio real-estate agent Marie Crabb. "They were getting priced out, according to them, by people from California. It was an interesting trickle-down effect."
The influx of newcomers to San Antonio, coupled with a limited supply of homes, has driven up prices. The city’s top employers, predominantly in the military, education and healthcare sectors, provide stable but not high-paying jobs, contributing to the affordability challenge, said Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing-market research firm Zonda based in Newport Beach, California.
"This is when San Antonio started to face some of the issues of the other markets," Wolf said. "Now home prices were aligned with some of the newcomers." "
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/tex ... ty-a50c78f
One study found that:
"An immigration inflow equal to 1% of a city's population is associated with increases in average rents and housing values of about 1%. The results suggest an economic impact that is an order of magnitude bigger than that found in labor markets."
Immigration and Housing Rents in American Cities, Albert Saiz, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton, June 2003
The state of Texas is 68% bigger by land area than California, yet California currently has 33% more people. (as of 2021)
Due to factors concerning climate, topography and geographic, Texas also has somewhat more "desirable livable" area than California, separate from just the statistic of land area.
A short history for those who may not be aware...
In the state of California, Los Angeles began to "decline" beginning in the second half of the 80s. And as far back as the late 60s and early 70s, cheap housing could be found in San Francisco. It was the center of the hippie movement. The hippies began moving away (many further north) starting in the mid-70s due to rising housing prices. San Francisco did not begin to start becoming unaffordable until the 90s, but really started becoming absurdly unaffordable after about 2002 or 2004.
Back in the late 70s, many people who came from New York City to visit San Francisco used to remark how clean the whole city appeared; obviously it's changed to becoming one of the filthiest cities today, a result of several decades of mass immigration, overcrowding, and an out of control homelessness problem.
I've read in the past (around 1998 to 2005) there was a lot of resentment by people in Oregon against all the Californians moving up there and turning their state into concrete suburban subdivisions and tract house developments. So one group of people pushes another group of people, and then those people in turn put pressure on another group of people in surrounding outlying areas.
It's no coincidence the unemployment rates in the three states bordering California are so high. There is space for people to move to, if they travel far enough, but not necessarily jobs for them all in those areas.
California Mexican man says: "There were a lot of white and black people here, but they all disappeared"
VIDEO: 'Mexican man says white n black people disappearing from California starring NAnthony777' , ¿Ron Mexico?
'In this video, George conversates with NAnthony777 about how other than Mexican people (ie blacks and whites) are disappearing from NAnthony's local area.' (video was posted around 2017 )
He is in the Downey and Norwalk area.
See this map. All those different colored regions on the map have the same population (about the same number of people living within them). California is colored red on the map.
https://i.insider.com/51e03b816bb3f7c54 ... &auto=webp
(Map comes from "California Is Insanely Huge", Business Insider, Walt Hickey, Jul 12, 2013 )
This article says that 700,000 residents from California have moved to Texas between the time of just 2010 to 2020.
Californians Could Ruin Texas--But Not the Way You Might Think, Christopher Hooks, by Christopher Hooks, March 2021
"Lone Star State leaders have worried about transplants importing West Coast values and politics here. But they've largely ignored the more pressing challenges newcomers are bringing with them."
The residents from California are having a disproportionate effect on Texas's population and housing market because they're almost always moving to be close to the bigger city areas.
"Texas politicians love to characterize California as a 'failed state'. But a major reason for the emigration from California, in addition to high taxes, is high housing prices. Expensive real estate is [...] mainly the result of so many Americans wanting to live in California to begin with. Though the Golden State’s population growth has tapered off in recent years, it was much greater than Texas's over the past century. From 1920 to 2020, California's population exploded from 3.4 million to almost 40 million. Texas, which has about 65 percent more land area than California, grew from 4.6 million to 29 million.
The primary advantages Texas has historically had over its competitors are its cheap housing and even cheaper cost of living. But those advantages are slipping. When Californians leave the Bay Area in large numbers for Austin and Dallas, the cost of living goes up here, and overpriced housing markets on the West Coast relax a bit. Texas cities are already struggling with rapidly rising rents and housing prices as well as an uptick in homelessness, and more and more natives are being pushed into outlying areas. "Texas is going through all these same issues that California and New York have had," says Steven Pedigo, the director of the Urban Lab at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, at the University of Texas at Austin. "We're just late to the party."
In the Austin metro area, the median rent increased 45 percent from 2010 to 2020. In metro Dallas, it jumped 49 percent; in Houston, 34 percent. "For Californians and people from New York, Texas is quite affordable," Pedigo says. "But for people who grew up in Texas and for immigrant populations, this is an increasingly unaffordable place." "
Locals are being priced out of Texas and Florida. Here's where they're looking for affordable homes instead.
Home prices in Texas and Florida have increased 30% and 42% since 2019, according to Realtor.com.
For Texans, "the Midwest has emerged as popular recently because it is just by and large the most affordable region," Hannah Jones, Realtor.com's economic research analyst said.
Floridians are searching for homes in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Texas has long been the go-to migration spot for Americans seeking reasonably priced housing and a low cost of living. But as 884,000 people moved to the state between April 2020 and July 2022, according to Census data, the cost of housing soared.
According to Realtor.com, searches for properties within Florida are down, while searches from Florida for properties in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama are up.
Compass real-estate agent Holly Meyer Lucas, who's based in South Florida, said she has seen dozens of middle-class, native Floridians sell their homes to newcomers and move out-of-state since 2018, when tax reforms drove many high earners to the no-income-tax state. Now, they can't afford to get back in.
"What's happening is if they want to come back to our area, their $800 a month mortgage is not an option anymore," she said. "They have to pay nearly $4,000 a month to rent the same type of home."
Locals are being priced out of Texas and Florida. Here's where they're looking for affordable homes instead, Business Insider, Kelsey Neubauer (kneubauer@insider.com), October 15, 2023
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