[Steve_American]

Arthur Berman: "Shale Oil and the Slurping Sound" | The Great Simplification #101 Nate Hagens Before you leave this go to the end to get the info for the below prediction.

Nore that the word 'real' means adjusted for inflation.

As long as the international market sets the price of oil, even a small shortfall in production compared to demand (with the money) will cause a large increase in oil prices. So large many will be priced out of consumption. Nate has also shown that a drop in available energy is always also a drop in real GDP. No additional oil to use means no real GDP growth.
Dr. Berman says that the world has functionally reached peak oil production, and will plateau, and then it'll start to fall, by up to 20% over the next 10 years. So, if the world's economy continues to grow, then the demand will increase and this will be (or cause) a shortfall starting very soon. So, oil prices will spike very soon. This will cause inflation, and the Fed will raise interest rates to stop the increase. This will not work, so 70s style stagflation will be the result.

Or we can impose rationing to reduce demand now, to leave some oil to build renewable energy stuff for the future economy. Living standards will fall.

They will fall soon for everyone anyway. At least, if we count being dead (because of civil chaos) as being the living standard of the dead having fallen. This is a Mad Max world. I hope I die before it gets terrible.

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[Steve_American]

So, let me be clear about my views of the future.

First, I must point out that in 1973 I was convinced by the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth", that about now the world would in the situation we are in now. The Club if Rome report was totally accurate.!!
It didn't talk about ACC, but it did talk about pollution. Since CO2 being dumped into the air is now seen as pollution, I'll let the failure to see global climate change slide.

Anyway, Dr. Berman is telling us that we will see inflation in oil prices and the 70s taught me that oil price inflation becomes universal and nothing the Fed can do will stop that. That if the Fed tries, all we get is Stagflation, because corps must raise prices if they must pay more for oil. BTW, Peter Ziehan said recently that because of demographics, as Boomers retire and are replaced by 20-something Gen-Zers there are fewer workers, because Gen-Z is smaller than the Boomer Gen. So, 2 different sources of inflation that the Fed can't stop.

On top of that we have ACC. The current surge in methane is driving temps up faster. So, we are going to blow past the target of +1.5 deg. C. The El Nino is going to be added to that. This means additional tipping points will be tipped as the IPCC has said. This means we will see +3 deg. C much sooner than any one using the IPCC data predicted.

The bread basket of the central US is currently seeing the worst drought in over 1000 years, based on what we know about the paleo-climate from tree rings. This will also add the inflation in food prices. The Fed can't stop this inflation either.

The future looks preey bleak.

I predict that in the long term, we will discover that, there is no long term for civilization.

I predict civil chaos by 2050 or 60, if not sooner, like 2033.

Very recently, I saw someone say that the mountains near the equator and areas in the far north and south are the best places to survive the next 10,000 years. Mountains are good because you can change the temp of the air around you by moving up or down. The equator is good because it will heat less, but at sea level the wet-bulb temps in a +3 deg. world will kill you in 4 hours, so mountains are much better. I wonder if the highlands of New Guinea will be a good place. But, the tribes there will not like invaders.
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