[anarchist23]

A pre-emptive US military strike against North Korea may be necessary if the threat posed by its nuclear weapons programme reaches a level that “requires action”, the US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has warned.

Speaking in Seoul on the second day of a visit to the Asia-Pacific region, Tillerson said Washington’s policy of “strategic patience” towards the regime in Pyongyang had ended.

In his strongest comments yet on concerns that North Korea is moving closer towards developing a nuclear strike capability that could threaten the US mainland, Tillerson said “all options are on the table”.

“Certainly we do not want to, for things to get to military conflict,” he said at a joint press conference with South Korea’s foreign minister, Yun Byung-se.

“If they elevate the threat of their weapons programme to a level that we believe requires action, then that option’s on the table.

US ‘strategic patience’ with North Korea has ended, says Tillerson
“Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended. We are exploring a new range of security and diplomatic measures.”

Those words hint at a departure from the North Korea policy pursued by the Obama administration, which sought to use multilateral sanctions to pressure the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, into agreeing to denuclearisation in exchange for aid and investment.

But over the past 11 years, North Korea has responded by carrying out five nuclear tests and dozens of missile launches, and made it clear it is not prepared to relinquish weapons of mass destruction in the face of American “hostility”.

Tillerson said North Korea could no longer be allowed to continue developing its nuclear and missile technology. “That would leave North Korea with significant capabilities that would represent a true threat,” he said.

The failure of Obama’s isolationism sparked speculation that the US would adopt a fresh approach towards North Korea under Donald Trump.

On Thursday, Tillerson conceded that 20 years of US attempts to “denuclearise” North Korea had been unsuccessful. “I think it’s important to recognise that the political and diplomatic efforts of the past 20 years to bring North Korea to the point of denuclearisation have failed,” he said during a visit to Tokyo.

“That includes a period where the United States has provided $1.35bn in assistance to North Korea as an encouragement to take a different pathway.”

US to deploy missile-capable drones across border from North Korea

“In the face of this ever-escalating threat, it is clear that a different approach is required. Part of the purpose of my visit to the region is to exchange views on a new approach.”

Aside from repeating that Washington’s policy options remain open, Tillerson has not offered details of how the Trump administration plans to address the rising threat from North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Earlier on Friday, Tillerson was able to view the North Korean countryside firsthand from the demilitarised zone, the heavily armed strip of land that has divided the Korean peninsula since the end of the 1950-53 Korean war.

Watched by North Korean soldiers on the northern side of the demarcation line, Tillerson toured the Panmunjom joint security area, which has been guarded by both North Korea and the US-led UN command since the end of the conflict.

At one point, the North Korean guards were just a few feet from Tillerson, with one appearing to be filming or photographing the secretary of state, who also met some of the 28,500 US troops based in South Korea.

Tillerson faces potentially the most difficult leg of his three-country visit when he arrives in Beijing on Saturday.

The US has called on China – North Korea’s only diplomatic ally and its biggest trade partner – to fully implement internationally agreed sanctions and exert more political pressure on Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.

“I don’t believe we have ever fully achieved the maximum level of action that can be taken under the UN security council resolution with full participation of all countries,” Tillerson said in a reference to China.

“We know that other nations can take actions.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -tillerson

[Frollein]

How would China react to a preemptive strike? Do they even have the capabilities to hurt America in retaliation?

[MistyTiger]

I do not think that the US should do a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. There is still time for the US to discuss matters with China and get China to convince North Korea that the US will not attack and that they do not need to attack Japan or anyone. The US should also take this time to strengthen and repair relations with China. The US needs China as an ally and as a trade partner.

[anarchist23]

I do not think that the US should do a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. There is still time for the US to discuss matters with China and get China to convince North Korea that the US will not attack and that they do not need to attack Japan or anyone. The US should also take this time to strengthen and repair relations with China. The US needs China as an ally and as a trade partner.

Unfortunately it's probably too late for that.

18th March

Extensive excavations are taking place at Kim Jong-un’s Punggye-ri nuclear site, with satellite images revealing tunnels are being built under Mount Mantap at the site, which previously provided support for underground nuclear tests.

Experts warn the new tunnels could support even more explosive tests.

Frank Pabian and David Coblentz from North Korea think tank 38 North which monitors the hermit kingdom said: “The continued tunnelling under Mount Mantap via the North Portal has the potential for allowing North Korea to support additional underground nuclear tests of significantly higher explosive yields, perhaps up to 282 kilotons.”

Satellite images show Kim Jong-un escalating nuclear action
Fri, March 17, 2017

New satellite images show in great detail how Kim Jong-un is escalating North Korea's nuclear weapons programme.

North Korea scolds US for ‘escalating NUCLEAR ATTACK FEARS’

North Korea's time running out as Rex Tillerson says patience is over

The North Portal has the potential for allowing North Korea to support additional underground nuclear tests of significantly higher explosive yields, perhaps up to 282 kilotons

The think tank, a programme of the US-Korea Institute in Washington DC, warns the tests have become more powerful since October 2009.

A security fence around the perimeter of the North Portal suggests it is “the primary test portal” with tunnels being dug at three other sites at Punggye-ri.

North Korea has conducted five declared and remotely detected underground nuclear tests at its dedicated nuclear test site at Punggye-ri in mountainous terrain in the northeast of the country over the last decade.

Extensive excavations are taking place at Kim Jong-un’s Punggye-ri nuclear site
Analysts say new commercial satellite imagery suggest Pungyye-ri “is capable of handling a sixth nuclear test on short notice once a nuclear device and the associated monitoring equipment are emplaced”.

Previously seen supplies and equipment have been moved with a large shipping container in its place at the North Portal with an “increase in a activity” at the command centre area.

But despite the flurry of activity it is unclear when the next test will take place as tensions escalate between the US and Pyongyang over the growing nuclear and missile threat.

Kim Jong-un has warned North Korea can test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile at any time from any location and threatened to unleash a “merciless” attack on the US if joint military exercises with South Korea continue.

Once fully developed, a North Korean ICBM could threaten the continental United States, which is around 5,500 miles from the North.

US and South Korean military chiefs have discussed operations if North Korea attacks large-scale joint drills between the allies.

Kim Jong-un has warned North Korea can test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile at any time

Since last year Pyongyang has carried out two nuclear tests and a string of missile launches, including four in the last week.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/780 ... g-un-sites

[Mischief_Managed_05]

I do not think that the US should do a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. There is still time for the US to discuss matters with China and get China to convince North Korea that the US will not attack and that they do not need to attack Japan or anyone. The US should also take this time to strengthen and repair relations with China. The US needs China as an ally and as a trade partner.

I completely agree to this point. USA and China must engage in diplomatic and progressive methods of handling North Korea situation. Such imbalance in the region is derogatory for peace and stability. Aggression may lead to innocent people losing their lives unnecessarily. It's best that concerned parties get together in a meaningful and positive discussion.

[Joka]

This is all very ironic as the Trump administration campaigned as non-interventionists and anti-war. Time to start figuring out that there is no such thing in United States politics or political discourse.

[MB.]

This is at least partly mixed signaling and miscommunication from DPRK and Washington. On the one hand both DPRK and USA have ratcheted up verbal threats and military tests / drills.

On the other hand, however, US Secretary of State Tillerson has specifically stated that he believes a "staged approach" that relies on diplomacy, especially through China, is the key to deescalation. DPRK continues to issue its usual propaganda, but apparently is panicking to some extent over US and South Korean drills and military ops. Kim is certainly responding to increased US and ROK pressure, including a plan and training excercise jointly conducted by ROK and US special forces aimed at assassinating him.

So what you have here is a very real escalation in rhetoric, but I wouldn't say a serious actual change in threat. Tillersons has a huge opportunity to build bridges with China and other regional partners to get them involved in the deescalation and reconciliation process. DPRK is mainly worried about being caught between a super power conflict and getting squashed as a result. Kim should use the world's focus on him to emerge as a statesman and try to win some diplomatic battles through negotiations. I do not believe, nor does anyone other than historicist pundants, that conflict is inevitable.

[anarchist23]

This is at least partly mixed signaling and miscommunication from DPRK and Washington. On the one hand both DPRK and USA have ratcheted up verbal threats and military tests / drills.

AirSea Battle is an integrated battle doctrine that formed a key component of the military strategy of the United States. The doctrine became official in February 2010, and was renamed to Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons (JAM-GC) in 2015.

Inspired by the AirLand Battle concept, the United States Navy and Air Force are working on a new AirSea Battle doctrine. A version was codified in a 2009 Navy-Air Force classified memo which addressed "asymmetrical threats" in the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf, which are seen as meaning China and Iran. The Pentagon has created a China Integration Team composed of U.S. Navy officers to apply AirSea Battle lessons to a potential conflict with China. In 2010 the Obama Administration declared that freedom of maritime navigation in the South China Sea, whose islands are claimed variously by China, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Philippines, is a U.S. national interest. The comment was seen as a response to a Chinese official stating the region was a "core interest" of Chinese sovereignty.

AirSea Battle officially became part of U.S. grand strategy, when, in February 2010, the U.S. Department of Defense's Quadrennial Defense Review stated: "The Air Force and Navy together are developing a new joint air-sea battle concept for defeating adversaries across the range of military operations, including adversaries equipped with sophisticated anti-access and area denial capabilities. The concept will address how air and naval forces will integrate capabilities across all operational domains—air, sea, land, space, and cyberspace—to counter growing challenges to U.S. freedom of action. As it matures, the concept will also help guide the development of future capabilities needed for effective power projection operations."

The conceptual background of AirSea Battle also stems from the "Revolution in Military Affairs" theory. Proponents of the theory have sought to direct American battle planning with new technological abilities in mind, such precision-guided munitions and improvements in communication and ISTAR.

wiki



China’s foreign minister, urged the US to remain “cool-headed” and defended his government’s position, saying all international parties should seek diplomatic solutions while implementing UN sanctions against Kim Jong-un’s regime.

Rex Tillerson calls for increased cooperation with China to combat 'dangerous tensions' with North Korea
US Secretary of State calls for Pyongyang to perform 'course correction' on nuclear weapons.

The US Secretary of State has warned of “dangerous levels” of tension with North Korea during his first visit to Beijing.

Rex Tillerson said the Trump administration and Chinese government were committed to “doing everything we can to prevent any type of conflict from breaking out”.

“We share a common view and a sense that tensions on the peninsula are quite high and that things have reached a rather dangerous level,” he added during a press conference with China’s foreign minister.

“There are a number of steps that we can take… to see if we cannot bring the government in Pyongyang to a place where they want to make a course correction and move away from their development of nuclear weapons.”

His comments came after Donald Trump accused North Korea of “behaving very badly” in a tweet that also took aim at China, a key ally of Pyongyang and one of the only countries to maintain diplomatic relations with its isolated government.

“North Korea is behaving very badly,” the President wrote. “They have been ‘playing’ the United States for years. China has done little to help!”

Donald Trump says North Korea is 'behaving very badly'

Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, urged the US to remain “cool-headed” and defended his government’s position, saying all international parties should seek diplomatic solutions while implementing UN sanctions against Kim Jong-un’s regime.

“We hope that all parties, including our friends from the United States, could size up the situation in a cool-headed and comprehensive fashion and arrive at a wise decision,” he added.

Last week, Mr Wang warned that North Korea on one side, and the US and South Korea on the other, were like “two accelerating trains” heading towards each other, with neither side willing to give way.

He proposed an agreement where North Korea would suspend its weapons development in exchange for a halt in joint US-South Korean military drills, but it was swiftly dismissed by Mr Trump’s ambassador to the UN.

Mr Tillerson, who previously criticised China over its expansion in the South China Sea, pushed for closer Chinese-US co-operation in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear programme in his first face-to-face talks with senior diplomats in Beijing.

He stressed the need for a “results-oriented” relationship with China, adding: “We renewed our determination to work together to convince North Korea to choose a better path and a different future for its people.”

Mr Tillerson later met Yang Jiechi, Xi Jinping’s leading foreign policy adviser, and was scheduled to meet the Chinese President on Sunday morning before returning to the US.

Tensions have worsened following a series of ballistic missile tests by North Korea as it attempts to miniaturise a nuclear warhead able to be mounted on an inter-continental missile.

Advances have alarmed South Korea, sparking the deployment of the US’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (Thaad).

China and Russia have accused the US of exacerbating tensions with the anti-missile system, which they say goes far beyond the capability needed for defence.

The Korean Central News Agency, the state media outlet for North Korea, also hit out at military drills and said the manoeuvres “only precipitate the US’ final ruin”.

“The US would be well advised to bear in mind that the army of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] has shifted the mode of its military counteraction to that of pre-emptive strike to cope with the former’s moves for a nuclear war,” said an article published on Saturday.

“Once even a single shell is fired into the inviolable territory, waters and sky where the sovereignty of the DPRK is exercised, its Juche-oriented weapons will reduce the bases of aggression and provocation to such debris that no living thing can be found. This is not hot air.

“No mercy will be shown for those who infringe upon the sovereignty and dignity of the DPRK even a bit.”

Mr Tillerson travelled to Beijing from South Korea, where he warned on Friday that pre-emptive military action against North Korea might be necessary if the threat from its weapons programme reaches a level “that we believe requires action”.

As North Korea’s most important source of diplomatic support and economic assistance, China has grown increasingly concerned about the possibility of conflict on the Korean peninsula.

Mr Tillerson’s visit came ahead of a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Trump, which is expected to take place later next month.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 36941.html

Edit.
The deal that China is offering the US at the moment is...
If USA refrains from military drills in the South China seas then North Korea will stop developing its nuclear program. lol




.

[Zagadka]

Donald Trump derided Hillary Clinton as a warmonger on Wednesday, saying: “Sometimes it seems like there wasn’t a country in the Middle East Clinton didn’t want to invade,” even as he called for a major increase in US defense spending.

In the speech at the Union League in Philadelphia, a century-and-a-half-old institution crammed with portraits of civil war generals and long-dead club presidents, Trump laid out his vision for a more robust US military paired with a cautious foreign policy.

Trump railed against his Democratic opponent as having been “trigger-happy and very unstable” during her tenure as secretary of state, claiming that she produced “only turmoil, suffering and death” while in office.

By contrast, the Republican nominee promised to “prioritize diplomacy over destruction”

[Decky]

How would China react to a preemptive strike? Do they even have the capabilities to hurt America in retaliation?

The US has huge military assets deployed in their colonies of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Both China and North Korea could do huge damage to them.

[unbalanced zealot]

In all seriousness my wife and I talked today about sending some of our money to Australia, in case a worst case scenario unfolded.

We never thought seriously about the threat from the North but a proxy war between the US/China on the Korean Peninsular is actually a real possibility if things got out of hand.

Interesting thing to realize is that most of the elite in South Korea have strong US (or other international) connections or even dual residency, so they can bail if they need to. Where-as regular Korean people can't. Samsung and other Chaebols have vast supply chain business' and plants outside Korea so they could quickly shift the operations outside of Korea if need be.

I think if Moon Jae-in takes the presidency from May it will be a good thing for the NK situation.

[ness31]

If anyone can sort out their differences it's Trump and Lil Kim. I have faith that by the time the Trump presidency is over North Korea and the US will be on good terms on all fronts.

[MistyTiger]

Trump railed against his Democratic opponent as having been “trigger-happy and very unstable” during her tenure as secretary of state, claiming that she produced “only turmoil, suffering and death” while in office.

By contrast, the Republican nominee promised to “prioritize diplomacy over destruction”

Wow.

How is upping the military budget prioritizing diplomacy over destruction? The military is a fighting machine not a diplomatic weapon.

[anarchist23]

:lol: Wow.

How is upping the military budget prioritizing diplomacy over destruction? The military is a fighting machine not a diplomatic weapon.

There is alot of truth in what you say.

Donald Trump’s budget blueprint would slash funding for the state department and foreign aid in a further sign that America stands to dramatically reduce its non-military role in the world under the new president’s watch.

The proposal, released by the White House on Thursday, would cut the total for the state department and the United States Agency for International Development (USAid) by 28% in 2018. The reduction would mean that the two agencies overseeing diplomacy and foreign assistance would shrink by a combined total of $25.6bn – a $10.1bn reduction from the previous year.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... ump-budget

If anyone can sort out their differences it's Trump and Lil Kim. I have faith that by the time the Trump presidency is over North Korea and the US will be on good terms on all fronts.

I personally think Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are irrational and so predicting their future is difficult. Although many disagree....

Is Kim Jong-un rational? The new US ambassador to the United Nations thinks he is not. Nikki Haley said after North Korea's simultaneous launch of four ballistic missiles: "This is not a rational person." But is she right?
Kim Jong-un may have many flaws. He is without doubt ruthless - the bereaved relatives of the victims of his regime, including within his own family, would testify to that. He may have driven through an economic policy that keeps his people living at a standard way below that in South Korea and, increasingly, China.
And he seems to have personal issues, such as eating a lot - photographs show his bulging girth - and being a fairly heavy smoker.
But whatever these failings and foibles, is he actually irrational - which the Oxford English Dictionary defines as "not logical or reasonable, not endowed with the power of reason"?
Scholars who study him think he is behaving very rationally, even with the purging and terrorising of those around him. Prof Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul told the BBC: "He is perfectly rational. He sometimes overdoes it. He sometimes tends to apply excessive force. Why kill hundreds of generals when dozens will do?
"Most people he kills would never join a conspiracy but he feels it's better to overdo it. It's better to kill nine loyal generals and one potential conspirator than to allow a conspirator to stay alive.
"But he is rational."
Prof John Delury of Yonsei University in Seoul said that even having his half-brother killed (as the allegation is - denied by Pyongyang) would be a rational act; not nice but rational.
"A sad fact of history is that young kings often kill their uncles and elder brothers. It may be cruel, but it is not 'irrational'. If you don't take my word for it, read Shakespeare."
On this assassination of Kim Jong-nam, allegedly at the hands of agents of the regime, Prof Lankov says it is similar to the Ottoman Empire, where concubines of the Sultan had countless children, any of whom had a bloodline that might one day legitimise a claim to the throne.
Prof Lankov thinks that Kim Jong-nam was, accordingly, a threat, probably not that great a one but still intolerable: "Probably he was not that dangerous but you never know. He was definitely under Chinese control."
Prof Delury said that there was nothing irrational about Kim Jong-un's drive to obtain credible nuclear weapons: "He has no reliable allies to guarantee his safety, and he faces a hostile superpower that has, in recent memory, invaded sovereign states around the world and overthrown their governments.
"The lesson North Koreans learned from the invasion of Iraq was that if Saddam Hussein really possessed those weapons of mass destruction, he might have survived."
This was compounded by the lesson of Libya, according to Prof Lankov: "Did American promises of American prosperity help Gaddafi and his family? Kim Jong-un knows perfectly well what happened to the only fool who believed Western promises and renounced the development of nuclear weapons. And he's not going to make that mistake. Once you don't have nuclear weapons you are completely unprotected.
"Did Russian or American and British promises to guarantee Ukrainian integrity help Ukraine? No. Why should he expect American, Russian or Chinese promises to help him stay alive? He is rational."
If he is rational, what does he want? On this, scholars are divided. Prof Brian Myers of Dongseo University in Busan in South Korea said that Kim Jong-un wants security but also a united Korea as the only way he and the regime can survive in the long term.
"As every North Korean knows, the whole point of the military-first policy is 'final victory', or the unification of the peninsula under North Korean rule."
A credible nuclear force would give him the ability to pressure the United States to remove its troops from the peninsula.
"North Korea needs the capability to strike the US with nuclear weapons in order to pressure both adversaries into signing peace treaties. This is the only grand bargain it has ever wanted," said Prof Myers.
And once the US troops had gone, on this argument, North Korean rule would be unstoppable.
Prof Lankov doesn't agree with the emphasis. He thinks survival is by far the most important motive behind Kim Jong-un's actions: "Above all, he wants to stay alive. Second, economic prosperity and growth - but it's a distant second."
So what's to be done? Prof Lankov sees no good options: "I don't see any solution right now." He thinks the best option is to persuade North Korea to freeze its development of nuclear weapons at a particular size of arsenal "but it will be very difficult and North Koreans may not keep their promises".
And money would have to be paid. "But this deal isn't good from an American point of view because it means paying a reward to a blackmailer, and if you pay a reward to a blackmailer once, you invite more blackmail.
"The second option which might work is a military operation but that is likely to trigger a second Korean war and will permanently damage American credibility as a reliable ally and protector.
"Worldwide, a lot of people would see that it's better to have enemies than such friends."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39269783

[anarchist23]

Breaking News.

North Korea's latest rocket-engine test showed "meaningful" progress, South Korea said on Monday, while an analyst said it was a dangerous step towards the North's goal of developing a rocket that could hit the United States.

The North's KCNA news agency said on Sunday the engine would help North Korea achieve world-class satellite-launch capability, indicating a new type of rocket engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The North's announcement of a successful engine test came as Rex Tillerson, the US secretary of state, was in Beijing at the end of his first visit to Asia for talks dominated by concern about North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes.


"Through this test, it is found that engine function has made meaningful progress but further analysis is needed for exact thrust and possible uses," Lee Jin-woo, deputy spokesman for the South Korean defence ministry, told a regular briefing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03 ... ress-says/

[Suntzu]

How would China react to a preemptive strike? Do they even have the capabilities to hurt America in retaliation?

Yes. For one thing they might decide to sink a few of our carriers.

[skinster]

Good.

America needs to get its grubby hands off North Korea.

[Suntzu]

Pre-emptive strike? Isn't that what Japan did to the U.S. at Pearl Harbor?

[Political Interest]

Washington can push for war in the Far East but that is not a war I am going to be fighting in. I am sorry, but I am not threatened either by China or North Korea.

If Trump ends up starting a war it will result in New Zealand and Australia getting dragged in, against the interests of both countries.

[unbalanced zealot]

I don't actually think that it is just a Trump Administration thing ... I think had it been Clinton or another Republican they'd still be running with the 'everything is on the table' line.

The thing to take into account is that there is going to be a new government here in Korea from May, most likely a liberal one that is inclined towards a softer line on NK (and is opposed to THAAD).