How the conflict in the South China Sea threatens peace - Politics | PoFo

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Today, the South China Sea is one of the most explosive regions of the planet. Many experts talk about the danger of deepening the contradictions between China and the United States, as well as China and the ASEAN countries, which threatens stability not only in the region, but throughout the world. After all, China no longer hides that it seeks to push its maritime borders as far as possible and create conditions for placing early-warning means of attack, as well as missile defense and air defense systems, at sea. In response, the US refuses to recognize the legality of the Beijing-imposed exclusion zones in the South China Sea and constantly provoke China, sending its warships to these zones. In such a situation, according to a number of orientalists, one random shot can lead to the outbreak of a great war between the two world superpowers.
In addition, the US has clearly faced a crisis of confidence in the region. They have already muffled disputes with the PRC about the ownership of the islands and the water area of the South China Sea and have gone on a number of agreements, including participation in the China-organized project One Belt and One Road. The negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEP) are nearing completion.
Today, only Vietnam is against the compromising policy towards the PRC. The complexity of his situation is aggravated by the fact that the pressure of Beijing in response to Hanoi's plans to explore several areas of the South China Sea for oil and gas is increasing. At the same time, the parties are arguing not only about the Spratly Islands, but also about the Paracel Islands, which Beijing seized in 1974 from South Vietnam.
One of the key issues is the analysis of the American-Chinese contradictions, which have recently been exacerbated, including in South-East Asia. The reason for this is that this region and especially the South China Sea occupies one of the central places in the global geopolitical projects led by the United States and China - the formation of the Indo-Pacific region (IPR) and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The very fact of the emergence of the IPR project shows that the traditional Asia-Pacific region, based on the cooperation of the United States and China, has virtually ceased to exist. The fact that the water area of the South China Sea is geographically located in the epicenter of the future IPR is capable of even more significantly "swinging" Sino-US contradictions on the whole range of problems associated with this water area.
Speaking about the One Belt and One Road Initiative, it is important to emphasize that the economic corridor China-Indochina and the section of the Silk Road will enter the South China Sea. In an effort to protect their investments in these global projects, China will inevitably form a profitable international environment for itself. A probable scenario is the creation of a Sinai-centric "general security" system.
The first sign of its formation is China's proposal to ASEAN countries to conduct naval maneuvers in the South China Sea with their fixation in accordance with accepted international practices.
The prospect of competition between American and Chinese projects is fraught with great upheavals and shapes the request of the countries of the region to increase the effectiveness of international mechanisms that can amortize the current and future contradictions between Washington and Beijing.

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