[B0ycey]

Who cares? It's only banking. You could round the lot of them up and "deal with them" tomorrow, who would notice the difference? It isn't an important job like coal mining or factory work or bricklaying.

You might if the banking sector actually left UK shores. Financial services companies are were worth £55bn to the British tax economy. That is about £1bn per week. If say 20% of that goes into passporting which is what I have just read above, being that to keep banks in the UK you would have to subsidize this, that is £200 million pounds per week. We give £350 million to the EU and about half of that is returned back to us. So a net loss of £25mn. You'll recover some of those losses via EU passporting levies to the UK, but surely it makes more sense to try and stay in the single market right? You might not like Bankers Decky, but without them there is no economy or lending.

[Decky]

That is bollocks. There would be a workers economy. The Soviet Union went from the wooden plough to sending the worlds first man into space in no time at all and they did it after shooting the bankers. They are parasites living off the productive economy while making no contribution themselves.

[afganitia]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... out-brexit

Not sure if this has appeared yet.

PD: an hypocryte. Surpising...

[Potemkin]

It's not really hypocrisy - after all, she campaigned in favour of remaining in the EU during the referendum. The contradiction arises because the UK has a pro-Remain PM who is trying to steer the country through Brexit. A few... discrepancies between her public and her private pronouncements are therefore to be expected. Lol.

[hartmut]

You might if the banking sector actually left UK shores. Financial services companies are were worth £55bn to the British tax economy. That is about £1bn per week. If say 20% of that goes into passporting which is what I have just read above, being that to keep banks in the UK you would have to subsidize this, that is £200 million pounds per week. We give £350 million to the EU and about half of that is returned back to us. So a net loss of £25mn. You'll recover some of those losses via EU passporting levies to the UK, but surely it makes more sense to try and stay in the single market right? You might not like Bankers Decky, but without them there is no economy or lending.

I didn't understand what the therm passporting means.
So I looked out what it could mean an found that definition:
"Passporting is the exercise of the right for a firm registered in the European Economic Area (EEA) to do business in any other EEA state without needing further authorization in each country." http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/passporting.asp
If UK, which might be loosing the "U" of the "K" by a decision to leave the union, which is up to now not executed,
abandons the frame of EU, and take the hardship to bargain out a whole bunch of new arrangements with continental Europe,
uncertainties will arise inevitably.

It is from my point of view not easy to foresee the economic results of such doing.
But the contradiction is obvious:
Theresa May wants to step out and stay within.
I cannot help but to compare such doing with the performances of the so much beloved Marty Feldman.

Why the hell should the British give away their important influence on continental Europa and for what gain?
It is hard to find any sense beyond of a currently waning and spectacular disintegrating fool-party, that was able to swing the pendulum to a slim voting majority for leave.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

But the contradiction is obvious:
Theresa May wants to step out and stay within.

As soon as you realise that access of non-member states to the single market isn't a black and white or in or out question, you'll see that it isn't a contradiction.

Trade and economic cooperation isn't a zero sum game. If the EU can get over its feeling of rejection and its fear that other member states might follow Britain, the two parties can go ahead and do what is best for the EU, the UK and Europe as a whole. As a reminder: the EU considers itself to stand for partnership and cooperation in Europe and the Brits are Europeans.

Why the hell should the British give away their important influence on continental Europa and for what gain?
It is hard to find any sense beyond of a currently waning and spectacular disintegrating fool-party, that was able to swing the pendulum to a slim voting majority for leave.

Perhaps they don't value their influence on continental Europe so much? Being an EU member comes with trade-offs. Why else do words such as "responsibility", "obligations", and "solidarity" dominate the discourse? Some countries are simply not prepared for closer political integration and this needs to be respected. At the same time, the EU - despite its name - has no legitimate mandate to try to expand to the whole continent. If more independent countries like Switzerland and Britain can't be accommodated, then something is seriously wrong and if the EU remains dogmatic and rigid on political integration, it will increasingly become a source of conflict rather than of peace and prosperity.

[Atlantis]

It's not really hypocrisy - ...

The obvious result of doublespeak is confusion. First you explain to us the importance of hypocrisy in British politics, and now you are saying it isn't hypocrisy at all. What a very educative example of hypocrisy!

You may think that it's of advantage to confound the enemy, like the British doublespeak that led to WWI. But then WWI wasn't really such a splendid affair. And even 100 years later, the doublespeak of the UK government tends to have more disadvantages than advantages: while May tried to play to the home audience by bashing the business elite at the Tory conference, the chancellor Hammond tried to woo the business elite in NY. In the end, neither was convinced and the markets expressed their distrust by sending the pound on another dive.

By saying first one thing and then the very opposite, the UK government is playing Yoyo with the pound. How long do you think that can go on before the government has to resign? With the US growth data better then expected, the FED will be able to reverse its low interest policy and start increasing interest rates in December. At that point, liquidity will start to flow into the dollar and the pound will go into free fall. With a bit of luck you could have a new government by early next year.

60 years ago, Eden was forced to abandon the invasion of Egypt during the Suez crisis by speculative pressure on the pound because Eisenhower threatened to sell the US's sterling reserves. Today, the UK government is doing it to itself.

Saying that you want out off the EU but stay in the single market (May: "operate inside the single market"), the UK is again sending contradictory messages. To insist on that which is physically impossible like a stubborn child (UK foreign secretary: "we'll eat our cake and have it too"), attitudes towards the UK are hardening because everybody now expects the UK to do its worst.

G&S now expects the pound to drop up to 40% as compared to pre-referendum levels. But that forecast doesn't even factor in a possible US FED reversal of its low interest policy which might come in December.

Sterling depreciation through October has probably taken the U.K.'s underlying current-account deficit from just over 6 percent to about 3.3 percent of GDP, they argue. Assuming a target shortfall of 1.5 percent as sterling depreciates and helps boost exports, they concluded that fair value for the pound lies somewhere 20 to 40 percent lower than its pre-Brexit levels.

Goldman Sachs Still Thinks Sterling Is 10 Percent Too Expensive

What are the bookies saying? My bet would be that the pound drops below 1 dollar by mid-December and the government resigns during the bank holiday. With a bit of luck you could have a new government by March to apply for euro membership by May amid continued speculative pressure on the pound.

[The Sabbaticus]

A pro-EU German and fervent Merkel supporter citing Goldman Sachs as an authority on currency speculation.

Spoiler: show

Wait, I'm not done yet.

[Atlantis]

I looked for an English equivalent of foreign news reports because Anglophones are impervious to anything outside their Anglophone bubble. If I had cited a German language source, you would have ranted about Nazis or banning foreign news from this site. Ignorance is a choice.

[Potemkin]

The obvious result of doublespeak is confusion. First you explain to us the importance of hypocrisy in British politics, and now you are saying it isn't hypocrisy at all. What a very educative example of hypocrisy!

I was merely pointing out that it is not personal hypocrisy on Theresa May's part. It is, if you prefer, an example of political hypocrisy, a somewhat different thing.

[Atlantis]

I was merely pointing out that it is not personal hypocrisy on Theresa May's part. It is, if you prefer, an example of political hypocrisy, a somewhat different thing.

When we talk about the hypocritical Albion, we don't talk about "individual hypocrisy", we talk about a collective or social phenomenon (not limited to politics). Anyways, the one doesn't exclude the other. And there is no reason to assume that the two aren't related, since a society doesn't normally exist independently of its individual members. Ultimately, a people deserves the government it has got.

[B0ycey]

A pro-EU German and fervent Merkel supporter citing Goldman Sachs as an authority on currency speculation.

The value of the pound is low due to one factor - uncertainty. Currently it is undervalued and even good news on the economy surprising doesn't seem to increase its value. Investers know the pound is undervalued, however it is difficult for them to invest in it due to uncertainty. Better to wait and have a buying frenzie when significant data on a coherent Brexit plan comes into play. However there is a number of things the UK could do to increase its value of the pound if it is ever in danger of losing its value to the dollar. They could increase interest rates or do what the Eurozone has done and but their own bonds. However while economic data remains solid I think the best thing Carney can do is what he is doing now. Wait and see how low the pound goes before inflation reached unsustainable levels. Nonetheless the UK government could do a simple thing to help out their own economy and increase the pound rate straight away. Stop the uncertainty. I understand their 'hold their cards close to their chest' approach, but they still should say that if in the end no deal can be agreed to get into the single market, the UK government will subsidize EU exports tariffs with incoming tariffs and subsidize passporting in servicing with the money they save from EU membership. It's not the most ideal plan and I think a trade agreement with the EU is preferable but at least business confidence will increase. And I am sure this is what they told Toyota behind closed doors.

[Atlantis]

it is difficult for them to invest in it due to uncertainty. Better to wait and have a buying frenzie when significant data on a coherent Brexit plan comes into play

What makes you think that the pound will recover?

It could stay low or continue declining. The UK economy does not have an absolute value which the pound would somehow come to reflect. Investors invest in future prospects. That the Bexiteers will be able to deliver is pure speculation. I wouldn't put my money on it. The UK economy suffers from a case of Dutch disease, which artificially inflates assets on the basis of make believe. If you own a pile of bricks in London, it could be worth a million or it could be worth next to nothing. It doesn't have a fixed intrinsic value. It's value depends on the attractiveness of London as a trading and financing center, first of the empire and then of the EU. But if that's gone, the bubble could just burst.

PS: The deal was offered to Nissan not Toshiba. If they offered compensation, the UK can't stay in the single market or customs union because that would be unfair subsidies. If the UK is outside the customs union, there could be tariffs and non-tariff barriers such as EU rules of origin that would be almost impossible to compensate. Anyways, if Nissan gets compensation, everybody will want compensation. The only way the government can assure Nissan that it won't suffer losses would be to give them assurance that Brexit won't actually happen. Nissan has taken back sovereignty.

[B0ycey]

What makes you think that the pound will recover?

It could stay low or continue declining. The UK economy does not have an absolute value which the pound would somehow come to reflect. Investors invest in future prospects.

Depends on what you mean by recover? It will never reach pre-referendum levels of $1.60 because it was never worth that level even in 2015. Investers put their investment in sterling as they thought it was a safe currency. Brexit has meant that faith has wavered significantly and that loss of confidence was the reason for sterlings drop of 13% (which increased to 20% due to the language from the incompetence Tory elite). Natually I can't say for sure whether the pound will recover or not. But I can make an assumption it will on what I read and logic. The UK economy is growing. It still has an interest rate of 0.25%. And it is one of the most desirable currencies. The BoE hasn't done extreme bond buying like the Eurozone has (which has an interest rates of 0%) to keep its value competitive and is an option it could take should it lose significant ground to the dollar. There is even an argument that it is the Euro which is incredibly over valued and is the real currency in danger of Dutch Tulip Syndrome rather than Sterling, especially when ECB runs out of bonds to buy and investers realise a hard Brexit will effect the EU economy as much as the UK economy. However as both economy's are reliant on each other this is why Brexit is so important. As I have said, if I was May I would publish what I would do if no deal can be agreed with the EU but push for a soft Brexit because the UK economy relies on a strong EU economy. And should she do that confidence in sterling would increase again and so should its value. However as things stand today, no one knows what the government's plans are so confidence in sterling remains low and no one wants to invest. A bad ploy from May, but as her strategist have been so bad so far with Brexit, why would I expect things to change with the UK economy.

PS: The deal was offered to Nissan not Toshiba. If they offered compensation, the UK can't stay in the single market or customs union because that would be unfair subsidies. If the UK is outside the customs union, there could be tariffs and non-tariff barriers such as EU rules of origin that would be almost impossible to compensate. Anyways, if Nissan gets compensation, everybody will want compensation. The only way the government can assure Nissan that it won't suffer losses would be to give them assurance that Brexit won't actually happen. Nissan has taken back sovereignty.

Ha, my apologies. It is Nissan. Wrong manufacturer. You got me! However, you would only subsidize Nissan if an agreement for access to the single market can't be agreed. And yes, you would subsidize every EU exporter if you were to do so and this would be affordable because export tariffs would make the UK net beneficier of around £6 bn. Nonetheless I want to make one thing clear. Going down the subsidies route should be a last resort and only be executed should no deal be agreed. To restore UK confidence I would publish this plan, but fight for a tariff free system to keep both UK and EU economies strong and make that clear to global businesses that was how I was going to approach EU negotiations. Today Mays approach is shockingly bad. Saying Brexit means Brexit and thinking people know what that means is puzzling. And she scratched her head when businesses say they are worried about future plans!

[Potemkin]

Saying Brexit means Brexit and thinking people know what that means is puzzling.

To be fair to May, when she said "Brexit means Brexit", she simply meant that Brexit, no matter what kind of Brexit it may eventually turn out to be, will definitely go ahead. She had to say this in order to clarify that she would not be holding a second referendum or otherwise seek to overturn the result of the Bredxit referendum. She was, after all, a pro-Remain MP before becoming PM after Cameron's resignation. It wasn't merely a meaningless tautology.

[B0ycey]

To be fair to May, when she said "Brexit means Brexit", she simply meant that Brexit, no matter what kind of Brexit it may eventually turn out to be, will definitely go ahead. She had to say this in order to clarify that she would not be holding a second referendum or otherwise seek to overturn the result of the Bredxit referendum. She was, after all, a pro-Remain MP before becoming PM after Cameron's resignation. It wasn't merely a meaningless tautology.

I understand what you are saying, but again this is a terrible strategy. By saying there is not going to be a second referendum, you are limiting your options. I'm not saying what I write is possible, but say May tested the waters to see if limits to Labour movements could be agreed to keep the UK in the EU, surely that would be grounds for a second referendum if a deal could be agreed (which remain would win). Every single option should be on the table when negotiations take place for the sakes of Europe as whole. Limiting your hand only reduces your options. The best strategy May could do is publish what she will do if no agreement with the EU can be achieved but make sure everyone knows she wants a soft Brexit. Explaining nothing, keeping you cards close to your chest while vocating hard Brexit rectric reduces UK business confidence. That is why 'Brexit means Brexit' means nothing and only confuses. What is Brexit for our relationship with the EU and what does it mean to trade. Nobody knows and until it is clarified sterling remains unstable and lower than it should be...and the scary thing is it could take over two years before we find out!

[Potemkin]

That is why 'Brexit means Brexit' means nothing and only confuses. What is Brexit for our relationship with the EU and what does it mean to trade. Nobody knows and until it is clarified sterling remains unstable and lower than it should be...and the scary thing is it could take over two years before we find out!

The statement "Brexit means Brexit" may have meant nothing beyond the fact that Brexit would happen, but she had to say it. The people, like it or not, had spoken. You must bear in mind that in Britain there is a dangerous gap between the people and the ruling elite, and always has been, because of our highly class-conscious society. If the great unwashed masses had even suspected that their vote would simply be set aside by the political elite as 'incorrect' or 'unwanted', there would have been hell to pay. We can barely tolerate these upper-class bastards as it is; if they had blatantly dismissed the expressed will of the people over Brexit, the country might have become ungovernable. Even as it was, there was utter chaos for several weeks. No, her famous tautology was absolutely necessary, even if it baffled our continental friends across the Channel.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

So far the British economy has certainly defied expectations. Growth forecast for the last quarter were somewhere around 0% but the actual growth is 0.5%. There has been - surprisingly for many I think - no negative effect on consumer confidence.

BoE actions after the vote are also partially responsible for the drop of the pound. Need to wait and see what Carney does next.

No, her famous tautology was absolutely necessary, even if it baffled our continental friends across the Channel.

I agree. She did the right thing, especially since she did not campaign for Brexit.

I don't think many were confused about what she meant. People might have feigned confusion, but it's not difficult to see why she thought it was necessary to repeat this over and over.

I don't understand the hypocrisy charge either. May is only doing her job. It's actually commendable that she manages to come across as credible.

Carney and other high profile people have also made complete u-turns. They must, if only to inspire confidence.

[noemon]

Trade and economic cooperation isn't a zero sum game. If the EU can get over its feeling of rejection and its fear that other member states might follow Britain, the two parties can go ahead and do what is best for the EU, the UK and Europe as a whole. As a reminder: the EU considers itself to stand for partnership and cooperation in Europe and the Brits are Europeans.

This makes sense and it's a good argument as well as a good feeling, but and there is a but, I don't think Britain wants to do anything, I think Theresa May is merely playing political theatre and their European counterparts are simple playing the roles that they have pre-arranged with Britain.

[Atlantis]

Natually I can't say for sure whether the pound will recover or not. But I can make an assumption it will on what I read and logic. The UK economy is growing.

There is nothing to suggest that growth will continue as before, on the contrary, everyone expects growth to slow as a result of Brexit. With slowing growth and rising inflation there is the prospect of stagflation.

So far the British economy has certainly defied expectations. Growth forecast for the last quarter were somewhere around 0% but the actual growth is 0.5%.

Growth has declined from 0.7% during the previous quarter. I don't know how you can spin a decline from 0.7 to 0.5% as good news. That you pull 0.0% growth figures out of the hat, doesn't exactly prove your argument. Nobody predicted zero growth for the last quarter. Everybody predicts that the decline in growth will only start next year. Thus, the decline of the last quarter is in line with expectations.