[Unthinking Majority]

This seems tricky to figure out. What is the EXACT purpose of the invasion and its goals?

The best I can guess is he at the very least wants regime change in Kyiv with a pro-Russian leader installed. We can assume at the very least he would also like to annex the parts of eastern Ukraine that are majority Russian, or possibly those parts of greater Ukraine that he sees as historically Russian.

It would be difficult to see the first goal working longterm. Majority of Ukrainians seem more pro-West than pro-Russian, which would mean a pro-Russian leader would be seen as illegitimate and cause civil unrest in the country like the run-up to the 2014 Crimea invasion.

[Wellsy]

I had thought he intended to destroy Ukraine so it would still functionally be a buffer.

But what if he is just crazy enough to want to annex Ukraine.
I’ve seen some posit the influence of fascist Aleksandr Dugin upon Russian elites where in his book there is the following:

Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.[9]
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

This seems simply untenable and way too ambitious to what seems possible. I agree that even the idea of taking over the east doesn’t seem so sure as a lot of the more pro-russian don’t seem to necessarily to have wanted to be taken over by Russia and break Ukraine.

[Fasces]

He's been very clear. At the very least he wants to establish a federalist government where foreign policy decisions such as joining the EU or NATO require unanimous consent of all provinces, knowing that this would be effectively impossible due to the eastern western split within Ukraine. He's been explicit about this.

He may also annex Donbass, Luhansk, and Crimea and get Ukrainian recognition for the annexation.

[annatar1914]

I had thought he intended to destroy Ukraine so it would still functionally be a buffer.

But what if he is just crazy enough to want to annex Ukraine.
I’ve seen some posit the influence of fascist Aleksandr Dugin upon Russian elites where in his book there is the following:

Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.[9]
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

This seems simply untenable and way too ambitious to what seems possible. I agree that even the idea of taking over the east doesn’t seem so sure as a lot of the more pro-russian don’t seem to necessarily to have wanted to be taken over by Russia and break Ukraine.

@Wellsy ,

It's strange, maybe even for a unique kind of Eurasianist, that Dugin has called for a return of the Kaliningrad Oblast to Germany and the Sakhalin and other islands to Japan, and other odd statements. I'm not sure he's listened to very much in the Kremlin, it actually seems like those guys are more Western in thinking than regular Russian people ever could be.

They seem to play the European games of war and intrigue and purely secular development right along with and in competition to the Europeans, on the course set by Tsar Peter.

[quetzalcoatl]

He's been very clear. At the very least he wants to establish a federalist government where foreign policy decisions such as joining the EU or NATO require unanimous consent of all provinces, knowing that this would be effectively impossible due to the eastern western split within Ukraine. He's been explicit about this.

He may also annex Donbass, Luhansk, and Crimea and get Ukrainian recognition for the annexation.

Perhaps the war is simply a way to force the US to seriously negotiate, which it has not done up to this point. However, I can't see the Americans making a believable promise not to interfere in Ukraine elections, or engineer future coup attempts, etc. It's likely to a long & painful slog if it continues its current direction.

[Politics_Observer]

@Unthinking Majority

It appears Putin's goal was regime change and the installation of a pro Russian government in Ukraine that answers to him. However, I don't see that as a realistic goal for Putin to pursue. His troops would get bogged down in a partisan war and any pro-Russian government installed will probably face partisan resistance as well. Such partisan resistance would probably get plenty of funding from the West and may very well have safe havens to retreat to in NATO countries.

This makes occupation of Ukraine over the long term unsustainable and it also makes a pro Russian government installed in Ukraine as unsustainable. Thus, it would seem, Putin's current goal of regime change is simply not a realistic goal to have. If I were him, I would be changing my goals to something that is more realistic to achieve. Otherwise, this isn't going to end very well for the Russians in Ukraine.

[Atlantis]

Wow, I actually managed to log in. I had forgotten my Pofo password and even lost the password for my email account due to a computer crash. I don't have much patience with this electronic stuff and wouldn't have fiddled around for long to get back in. As it is, my first try worked.

The last time I returned to this forum was in 2014, when I was very disappointed about how the EU had handled the Ukraine crisis. In the meantime, I was sort of reconciled with Europe because I had the hope that the Minsk II peace talks and peace offerings towards Russia would bear fruits in the end. What a fool I was. I feel totally ashamed. You are welcome to pour scorn on my head. I wanted to believe peace was possible. That clouded my judgement.

France/Germany tried to negotiate peace with Russia while the Ukrainian armed forces were being trained and armed by other Nato members (US, UK, Canada, etc.). If they were aware of it or not, they played the classical bad cop good cop routine, as if they thought the Russians were too stupid to realize it.

This seems tricky to figure out. What is the EXACT purpose of the invasion and its goals?

Putin's aims are clear. He has kept on repeating them for many years.

- Stop to Nato East expansion
- Removal of Nato infrastructure installed in violation of the Russia-Nato Founding Act of 1997 (ie., US missile systems in Romania and Poland allegedly installed against Iranian missiles)
- Neutrality for Ukraine
- Autonomy for the separatist regions to protect the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine

Now, we don't always get what we want and acts of war create facts on the ground that will lead to a modification of one’s objectives.

Russia respected Ukraine sovereignty (the allies had promised Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum) until the coup of 2014, which was planned by the US and carried out by fascist elements during the Maidan revolt to bring a pro-Western government to power that would lead Ukraine into Nato and EU.

At that time Russia took control of Crimea and supported Russian separatists in the East of Ukraine.

Crimea is gone. Ukrainian nationalists have gambled away Crimea during the Maidan coup. Ukraine still had the option to keep the separatist-held regions by fulfilling its obligations under the Minsk II accord and give a degree of autonomy to these regions.

Svovoda and other far-right elements that had brought the pro-Western government into power in the Maidan coup demanded to be rewarded with political influence. They leaned on the Kyiv government to torpedo the Minsk II peace talks. The Right Sector, Azov Battalion and other right-wing groups are basically beyond government control.

Thus, having lost Crimea in 2014, Ukrainian nationalists then proceeded to gamble away the rest of the country by preventing a negotiated settlement for 8 years, while being armed and trained by Nato.

The prospect of an independent and neutral Ukraine that would prosper by being at the crossroads of East-West trade is now gone for good.

Consequently, it doesn't really matter what Putin wants. What will happen in the end is the result of history, which is beyond Putin's power. I don't believe that he wants to occupy the whole of Ukraine, but he may have no choice in order to prevent an insurgence that could be supplied with huge Nato resources. An insurgence attacking Russian forces from a base in a Nato country would be an act of war and lead to WW3.

Thus, today his declared objectives are:
- “denazification” ie., removal of far-right ultra-nationalist elements from the levers of power in Kyiv
- Demilitarization, preventing a future Ukraine from having substantial armed forces
- Autonomy/Independence of the separatist regions to protecting ethnic Russians in Ukraine
- Basing neutrality in Ukraine’s constitution
How these objectives can be achieved will depend on how the war develops. Let’s not be fooled by Western propaganda, the Russian forces aren’t bogged down.

The West cynically drives up the number of casualties on both sides by supplying a massive amount of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine even though nobody believes that Ukraine can win. Ukrainians have to die in a proxy war so the West can weaken Russia.

Unless the West manages to destroy the Russian Federation in the coming weeks, Russia will probably continue to invade Ukraine, maybe right up to the Polish border.

Most people have no idea about the devastating consequences this will have for all of us. If the West can’t destroy Russia in the coming weeks, it may have just fired the first shot that’ll lead to its own demise. In the 7 decades of my life, I have never seen a propaganda war and witch hunts like we are seeing them now. Are you scared? You are not scared enough!

Nothing happens in isolation; Biden can’t be too hawkish on Ukraine because it risks bringing back the Trumpian republicans in elections later this year and maybe even Trump or a Trump clone in the next presidential election.

[Rich]

The last time I returned to this forum was in 2014, when I was very disappointed about how the EU had handled the Ukraine crisis. In the meantime, I was sort of reconciled with Europe because I had the hope that the Minsk II peace talks and peace offerings towards Russia would bear fruits in the end. What a fool I was. I feel totally ashamed. You are welcome to pour scorn on my head. I wanted to believe peace was possible. That clouded my judgement.

Black Adder: And your definition of dog is?
Baldric: Not a cat.

Probably not good enough for the David Attenboroughs of this world or Pub Quiz bore bullies like "The office"s Chris Finch, but Baldric's definition is surprisingly adequate for everyday use. its like if you ask the Scottish National Party what their definition of a Scot is, they will tell you "Not an Englishman". Note for the purposes of this definition Margaret Thatcher was considered an honorary Englishman.

So it was inevitable that after 2014 Ukrainianness would increasingly come to be defined as not a Russian and that other components of Ukrainian identity that had been a lot more important in the past such as "not a Pole", "not a Yiddish" and "not a Romanian" would fade. When it comes to Minsk II my scorn is for Putin who really did seem to imagine he could get what he wanted without fighting. Its the same with Putin whining on about Crimea's water supply. What did he think was going to happen when he annexed Crimea. What ever the rightness and justice of his case in his own mind why on earth did he expect the Ukrainians to respond "reasonably".

[annatar1914]

@Rich : because in essence Putin is a would be Westernizer, at least he wanted to be, ironically even more than the Ukrainian people who resist him. He is kind of damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, and thus is a transition figure after all.

[Rancid]

Putin's goal is empire.

[Atlantis]

So it was inevitable that after 2014 Ukrainianness would increasingly come to be defined as not a Russian and that other components of Ukrainian identity that had been a lot more important in the past such as "not a Pole", "not a Yiddish" and "not a Romanian" would fade. When it comes to Minsk II my scorn is for Putin who really did seem to imagine he could get what he wanted without fighting. Its the same with Putin whining on about Crimea's water supply. What did he think was going to happen when he annexed Crimea. What ever the rightness and justice of his case in his own mind why on earth did he expect the Ukrainians to respond "reasonably".

Nothing is inevitable unless you want it to be. Ukrainians and Russians have lived side by side for centuries in Ukraine, just like Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians, etc., all have lived side by side in Syria for centuries. It's only when the empire created an incident to play the game of divide and conquer that they suddenly started to kill each other.

Without the perfidy of the empire, peace could prevail and Minsk II could have succeeded. I think naivety is about the last thing you can accuse Putin of. In 2014, the Ukrainian armed forces were in such a state that Russia could have taken the whole country with a fraction of the casualties there will ben in 2022. The Crimean business at most cost 3 lives. But I think such a rapid escalation would have not even been supported by the Russian establishment. It just wasn't realistic.

The thing is, Putin always wanted West integration, maybe even in 2014. Was he naïve about Anglo-perfidy? I don't think you can call it naivety. It just how Russians are. They have confronted British-American imperialism for over 200 years and understand how they tick, but they can't stop being Russian.

But the game is up now. The European empires destroyed each other in the world wars: the Austria-Hungarian Empire, the German Empire, the French Empire, the British Empire they all went down the drain in the big fratricidal war. Now we are going to finish the job by dividing Europe and Russia so that China may rise.

[noemon]

1) The west signed Minsk II with Putin effectively agreeing to all his demands.
2) Ukraine was never going to get into NATO while Putin occupies parts of it.
3) Yanukovych(Putin's stooge) was elected with a mandate to sign the EU-Ukraine trade agreement, he u-turned and euromaidan followed. Putin engineered the crisis not the west.

4) Any troll blaming the west without offering real & concise evidence will be banned. Fair warning provided.

Troll and spam no longer welcome here.

If your intention is to spam the forum go find another one.


Putin's endgame has been to test and escalate as much as he can so as to extract maximum concessions from the west. He is now fucked for overplaying his hand.

[Rancid]

He is now fucked for overplaying his hand.

I hope you are right, but assholes have a way with slipping through and getting away with shit.

[noemon]

Do not flinch mate.

He is fucked.

He has used up all his forces and stalemate has already happened. He can not go anywhere but back from whence he came from.

[Beren]

In my opinion he means to "settle" the Ukraine issue and leave Russia in a rather tense cold-war-like situation with the West. He believes Ukraine's lost anyway and Russia should keep distance or be even separated from the West because they can't be trusted.

[Skynet]

Displace 30 Million and steal their property (farming land, and fracking gas in eastern part).

Food is the new gold, the value will increase whereas industry products get cheaper and cheaper.

[Atlantis]

1) The west signed Minsk II with Putin effectively agreeing to all his demands.

Nobody signed Minsk II. The talks have stalled. Ukraine was never prepared to fulfil the terms of Minsk II, in particular, autonomy for the separatist-held regions. Ukraine used the peace talks as delaying tactic to get Nato reinforcement.

2) Ukraine was never going to get into NATO while Putin occupies parts of it.

The US has openly pushed for Ukraine Nato membership since 2008. So far, it's been prevented by Germany's veto. The chancellor hinted to Putin that he didn't expect it for the next 4 years. But while de jure membership was pending, de facto Nato integration was moving ahead. Nato military experts are boasting that they trained and armed Ukraine to give the Russians a good fight. Anyways, Putin knows that the German government will fold when the pressure is high enough, as for NS2.

3) Yanukovych(Putin's stooge) was elected with a mandate to sign the EU-Ukraine trade agreement, he u-turned and euromaidan followed. Putin engineered the crisis not the west.

Yanukovich was elected as head of the Party of the Regions in Eastern Ukraine, primary by Russian speaking Ukrainians who most certainly did not want into EU.

4) Any troll blaming the west without offering real & concise evidence will be banned. Fair warning provided.

Admin Edit: Rules 2, 16 Violations

the US-planned Maidan coup are well documented and in the public domain. There is no excuse for ignoring them.

[noemon]

Nobody signed Minsk II. The talks have stalled. Ukraine was never prepared to fulfil the terms of Minsk II, in particular, autonomy for the separatist-held regions. Ukraine used the peace talks as delaying tactic to get Nato reinforcement.

Good for them. They clearly need a lot more reinforcement to secure their independence. Germany, France and the US by extension consented to Minsk II. Ukraine is an independent country. Putin got his guarantees de facto and controlled the territories de facto also.

The US has openly pushed for Ukraine Nato membership since 2008. So far, it's been prevented by Germany's veto. The chancellor hinted to Putin that he didn't expect it for the next 4 years. But while de jure membership was pending, de facto Nato integration was moving ahead. Nato military experts are boasting that they trained and armed Ukraine to give the Russians a good fight. Anyways, Putin knows that the German government will fold when the pressure is high enough, as for NS2.

The German government ensured that Ukraine would not join, it was Putin that invaded and changed the rules. That is not third-party pressure as you present it but reality smacking you in the face. Putin pissed in your appeasement, understanding and efforts and exposed those schemes as worthless.

Yanukovich was elected as head of the Party of the Regions in Eastern Ukraine, primary by Russian speaking Ukrainians who most certainly did not want into EU.

Yanukovych had agreed to follow the steps provided by the EU and Ukrainians expected him to follow down this path towards EU trade.

NATO did not accept Ukraine in 2008.

The US-planned Maidan coup are well documented and in the public domain. There is no excuse for ignoring them.

There is no excuse for trying to justify this death and destruction in Europe indeed.

Noam Chomsky: Before turning to the question, we should settle a few facts that are uncontestable. The most crucial one is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a major war crime, ranking alongside the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the Hitler-Stalin invasion of Poland in September 1939, to take only two salient examples. It always makes sense to seek explanations, but there is no justification, no extenuation.

[Rancid]

Putin is the west's fault, so therefore allow him to kill people?