JohnRawls wrote:You have never understood how it works. Let me try again, EU can have 3 to 5% of its trade harmed while EU can harm 40% to 50% of your trade. Yes, UK imports more than exports from the EU. The main problem for the UK is that the EU can take it while the UK can't.
So if the EU initiates something like the US-China trade war with the UK then you are going to fold 10 times faster. US trade is around 22% of Chinese exports and 10% of imports. That is more than 2 times lower than what EU trade is for UK.
What makes US less vulnreable to this is that foreign trade is 12% of USes GDP. While this number is 20-21% for China.
If we compare it to the UK then it is 30-32%. So UK will loose somewhere around 15-16% of its gdp if all trade is cut off between UK and Europe.
Here are the statistics for EU per country if 100% of trade will be cut off between UK and EU:
For Europe the number is around 2%-2.5% from this table.
So the EU has an overwhelming advantage here.
I think that it's yourself that doesn't understand how the real world functions JR.
The E.U is 27 countries, the U.K is 4 countries, we have a large deficit with Europe in trade, in a sense, although we are paying for those imports with hard £'s, the E.U would suffer were the U.K to (probably will)import greater amounts elsewhere as a direct result of the E.U miscalculating what you call, an 'advantage'.
The U.K, from the end of 2020, will begin to trade in alternative markets around the globe, to begin with, that trade will offset any loss of trade with the E.U, but as time goes on, we will grow that trade in excess of any loss resulting from reduced E.U activity.
The U.K has always been a global trading nation, it always will be, we could even begin rebuilding ourselves a merchant navy arising from a renaissance in our industries as an addition to our superior services & financial sectors.
The City of London financial centre has in place measures to cope with any E.U attempts to diminish it's pre-eminence outside of America.
We do not fear, but welcome, the freedom to trade with whoever we wish, on our own terms, in fact, we do more trade with the USA even before any trade 'deal' is agreed with them, for which I see no reason to change that current position, as it should be allowed to grow organically of it's own accord.
The E.U loses relatively less because those losses will be spread wider( in theory), in practice, not so, because Germany will be hit from a loss of exports to the U.K, that effect will be felt right across the E.U, because Germany will become it's largest net contributor, but earning less income to pay those contributions & a TRUMP effect could take place in Germany, where more people become euro-sceptic.
In contrast, when the U.K increases it's trade globally, the dividends are greater, because they are concentrated on distribution more than the case with the E.U.
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