[Igor Antunov]

There is confusion regarding language vs self perceived ethnicity. I'm sure that 80% of Crimeans only speak Russian.

[Il Duce]

Well shit has hit the fan sooner than we thought. Looks like civil war is coming to the Crimea which will bring Russia into this.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/f ... nt-reports

Armed men seize Crimea parliament - reports

Fresh Ukraine crisis as Tatar leader quoted as saying that building has been occupied by non-uniformed gunmen

Armed men have seized the regional government building and the parliament building in the Crimea region of Ukraine.

The area around the building in Simferopol was the scene on Wednesday of a confrontation between pro-Russia separatists and supporters of the country’s new leaders.

Interfax news agency said on Thursday that a local Tatar leader, Refat Chubarov, said on Facebook: “I have been told that the buildings of parliament and the council of ministers have been occupied by armed men in uniforms that do not bear any recognisable insignia.”

“They have not yet made any demands,” he said.

RT just said the Russian flag has been raised in the Crimea.

[Igor Antunov]

And this:

Western and Central commands start massive redeployment

Large units and military commands dislocated on the territory of the Western and Central commands and participating in the combat readiness test have started a massive redeployment to areas of interest, according to the press service of Russia’s Defense Ministry.

According to the General Staff of the Russian army, the commanders received packets with introductory data on performing route marches to areas of loading troop trains, as well as to airdromes of military transport aviation, followed by troops’ redeployment to the Defense Ministry’s ranges located far away from areas of permanent dislocation.

Tank units and detachments of the We4stern Command have finished the uploading of the railroad platforms and now are performing route marches to areas of interest.

Several units of the Western and Central commands are assigned to perform route marches under own power to cover a distance of more than 1,000 km.

It's not an exercise. They're simply moving into position. Invade eastern ukraine and secure crimea in the process, is my going bet.

[roxunreal]

If Crimea wants to so desperately be part of Russia, they can go ahead. Russia may well send troops there, however Crimea is as far as they'll go I think. I doubt it would actually be annexed though, more likely an "independent" Russian puppet state.

One thing I don't get is why do the Russians care so much about Crimea in terms of their fleet if they have an actually Russian black sea coast themselves? I mean sure they probably have facilities and shit there, but still, a navy port isn't exactly science fiction.

[Igor Antunov]

Why wouldn't it be annexed? There are numerous autonomous republics within Russia already.

One thing I don't get is why do the Russians care so much about Crimea in terms of their fleet if they have an actually Russian black sea coast themselves? I mean sure they probably have facilities and shit there, but still, a navy port isn't exactly science fiction.

Because the other port they're building will take years to complete, and naval bases are expensive, it has invested tens of billions into this one.

[roxunreal]

To maintain a sense of "it's about protecting the Russian population" as opposed to "territorial grab". Maybe they'll nudge towards unification a few years away like they did with Abkhazia and South Ossetia and were thoroughly rejected.

[Igor Antunov]

From same guardian live update blog:

The police have left the outside of the buildings and a pro-Russian leader gave a speech, which was shown on TV, mobilising people to come to the parliament. There are a lot of Russian flags, about 100 people outside and more and more arriving.

[Far-Right Sage]

100% support for the Russian position here.

It's time for all of Crimea and the millions throughout eastern Ukraine disgusted with events in the capital to rise in revolt.

They will not be alone. Reports are now in that Russians have been handing out passports to large numbers of ethnic Russians in Crimea. The Defense Minister pledged in Moscow a few hours ago to defend Russian citizens no matter what. This was the exact tactic used as a pretext for Russian intervention in South Ossetia against Georgia.

Ukrainians who prefer a relationship of strength and cooperation with their Slavic brothers as opposed to turning their country into the next notch in the belt for those sub-human lice in Brussels who have devastated Europe should stand alongside the revolt against the bandits in Kiev.

Kiev has literally undergone a coup d'etat masquerading as some form of legal succession under Ukrainian constitutional law which everyone, whoever they support, knows is a complete sham.

Thus whatever that little Brussels mouthpiece gremlin Yatsenyuk has to say and whatever "laws" coming out of Kiev at this moment should be completely and openly ignored and substituted by Ukrainian action to save this country from the disaster which would befall it if it were to become another EU/NATO protectorate for use against Russia.

Ukrainians and Russians must now act with strength and brotherhood against the harlots in Kiev. If that means Russian military action, then it must be so.

Russia should accept no less than one of three options:

1) Kiev is cleared of bandits and the reins of the Ukrainian government handed back to responsible actors who won't go about destroying monuments, preparing linguicide for eastern Ukraine with historical revisionism that denies Ukraine's historic Slavic ties to the Russian people and culture, and handing the keys to the Ukraine's future to the wolves who are the sworn enemies of every Russian and true Ukrainian patriot with an economically crushing and murderous fixed deal looming

2) Crimea is given independence

3) Crimea is annexed to the Russian federation

If this means terror must be spread on the ground against Tatars and Ukrainian chauvinists acting out a stay-behind role accompanied with a show of Russian force then so be it as well. Terror will be met with terror.

Russia must not allow its word in this region to be seen as empty and with nothing behind it or Ukraine will only be the tip of the iceberg.

It's time to reconsider the future direction of Eastern Europe away from the "Western" scums who may sit in European governments but are more at place in Jerusalem than Europe. These people are servants of an odious international order and only Russia in this region at this time has the strength of character and hard force to charter a different future.

Ukraine and indeed Europe's salvation may yet lay in Moscow. Now that Sochi is over I pray that the Russians won't pull even one punch. It's do or die and the initiative cannot be lost.

Putin orders ‘combat readiness’ tests for western, central Russian troops





Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an urgent military drill to test the combat readiness of the armed forces across western and central Russia. The drill included troops dealing with mock security and terrorist threats.

“The drills are not connected with events in Ukraine at all,” Sergey Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister, told journalists Wednesday.

As part of the test, several drills will be held on Russian borders with other countries, including with Ukraine. The main purpose of these drills is to check the combat readiness of the Russian armed forces, Shoigu said.

The surprise drill tested ground troops, Air Force, airborne troops and aerospace defense, according to Shoigu.

Putin ordered to “test combat readiness of troops in dealing with crisis situations that threaten the military security of the country, as well as with antiterrorist, sanitary and epidemiological, or technogenic situations,” Shoigu said.

According to the Defense Minister, the drill, which started at 14:00 GMT, will be held from February 26 until March 3 in two stages. The second stage involves an opposing-force exercise with the participation of Russia’s Northern and Baltic fleet and bomb strike drills.

Some 150,000 troops, 90 aircraft, over 120 helicopters, 880 tanks and 1,200 pieces of military hardware will be involved in the drills, deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Wednesday.

Russia informed NATO of the military exercise thus fulfilling its obligations in the field of military transparency, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told journalists before a scheduled meeting of the alliance's defense ministers.

"Yes, Russia has informed us about their military exercises,” Itar-tass reports, as Rasmussen stressed that Russia “lived up to all their obligations as regards transparency.”

Moscow also notified the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) of the military exercise, according to a senior NATO official.

While Western media was quick to connect the drill to the situation in Ukraine, such exercises were proposed by Putin as early as last September and followed massive 2013 drills.

In February, the Russian Army staged a surprise ‘combat readiness’ drill in central Russia for the first time in 20 years, which was followed by a Black Sea drill in March.

An exercise testing aerospace defense and Air Force then took place in May, involving thousands of troops with hundreds of aircraft and vehicles.

In July, a massive military drill took place in the Eastern Command. Up to 160,000 troops, 1,000 tanks and armored vehicles, 130 aircraft and 70 vessels took part in the drill.

Following the 2013 exercises, President Putin, in his capacity as Russia’s Supreme Commander-in-Chief, announced that the practice of surprise drills will continue. A comprehensive inspection of Interior Ministry troops was also ordered.

http://rt.com/news/putin-drill-combat-army-864/

What is happening in Ukraine is that some people who wield too much influence in this world have been watching Russia's growing determination since the year 2000 to command its own destiny and they don't like it. They have been watching it in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, but they feel they can affect the centre of gravity by whipping up chauvinists who don't understand the long-term strategic picture with old Cold War narratives. The Russians shouldn't just prove them mistaken. They should kill their proxies and all who come to replace them. The people who have hijacked Europe want to ensure Russia can be returned to a pre-Tsardom vassal state entirely too dependent on the international system to maintain any independence of action. Russian destiny, intertwined with the destiny of the Ukrainian people, is at stake.

[Thompson_NCL]

Is it the destiny of the Ukrainian people to become slaves of Russia? That seems to be what you're arguing in favour of here. You certainly have no interest in the position of Ukrainian nationalists, that's for sure.

And let's not be under any illusions that the Russian elite are any less disgusting than those who sit in Brussels. Putin and his lackeys have built PALACES for themselves. Are you honestly in favour of the continued weakness of Russia and The Ukraine in order to fund the lavish lifestyles of their Presidents?

You're backing the wrong horse here. If there are two armies on the field, both equally despicable, then you ought to at least join the one flying your nations flag.

[Far-Right Sage]

Is it the destiny of the Ukrainian people to become slaves of Russia

No, nor do I see how a generous Russian assistance package to effectively bailout the Ukrainian economy without the form of national gutting that the EU demands as it has for example in Greece and Cyprus is akin to slavery. Certainly it is far less so than the looming nightmare which is the EU deal Yatsenyuk is scheming to go along with.

You certainly have no interest in the position of Ukrainian nationalists, that's for sure.

Nationalists, in my view, will not actively aid and participate in a coup d'etat led by people who want deeper neoliberal expansionism in Europe - the same people who are historic enemies of Ukraine. The era of political and economic hegemony of this ideology/model of government and economy has not only been hostile to nationalism but openly seeks to eradicate all national feeling, including that in Ukraine, which cannot be used as an anemic cover for its purely financial, anti-national ambitions. Ukrainian nationalists swallowing this pill are being fooled by people they can't dance fast enough to keep up with on their best night. They are being used in the same manner Al-Qaeda and likeminded Islamist groups are used in the Middle East.

And let's not be under any illusions that the Russian elite are any less disgusting than those who sit in Brussels.

They are less disgusting, primarily for one reason: Russian state capitalism as opposed to internationalist neoliberal capitalism at this historical juncture is not an expansionist beast swallowing everything in its path and seeking to substitute every national tradition, national faith, and national character it comes into contact with with its perverse ideology.

Russia's state capitalist semi-oligarchy is filled with conservative essentially patriotic types who are cut-throat capitalists for sure, but at this stage are interested solely in maintaining their traditional sphere of influence and are willing to do business with any country on a reasonably fair basis (unless you think Russia paying all of Ukraine's former Soviet debt and offering to utterly subsidize it up to this day is somehow grossly exploitative) and do not demand submission to some degenerate universalist doctrine, unlike the Soviet Union of old or the West of today.

Now I fully accept that the Russian position could change in that regard in the future, if say Russian military strength and global influence were to increase alongside a more neoliberal faction winning out in Moscow, but it isn't there yet, and thus its marginally better alternative system offers some form of balance in an age in which too much of the world has fallen under a singular yoke which will be very difficult to extract itself from.

Are you honestly in favour of the continued weakness of Russia and The Ukraine in order to fund the lavish lifestyles of their Presidents?

No, I am in favor of the far-right and Third Position-aligned Ukrainian and Russian factions working cooperatively to put their respective countries in a better position of strength if the opportunity so arises. Like Aleksandr Dugin in Russia, who I believe has made many valuable contributions on this subject (specifically on Neo-Eurasianism), I don't believe that entails allying with Ukrainian and Russian liberals to batter the Kremlin in a manner which would open the door for a weaker Russia and greater Western sway over Russia and the whole of Eastern Europe. This is why many on the Russian far-right have temporarily come into accommodation with United Russia and the Kremlin, fully recognizing their warts but with knowledge of the greater ever-present danger.

You're backing the wrong horse here. If there are two armies on the field, both equally despicable, then you ought to at least join the one flying your nations flag.

Like Rei I support the concept of a federalist Europe but today's EU was established by liberal forces in Europe to shove that political and economic ideology and all the filthy garbage it entails down the throats of every man, woman, and child on the continent, so in a conflict between those assassins of nations in Brussels and Russia (or nearly any rival power at all), I cannot believe you would expect me to fly the EU flag.

I believe, on the contrary, not only in bloodying their nose, but smashing their fucking face in as the first step toward liberation of the continent. In this regard and this regard only, a victory for Putin is also our victory.

[Heisenberg]

One thing I don't get is why do the Russians care so much about Crimea in terms of their fleet if they have an actually Russian black sea coast themselves? I mean sure they probably have facilities and shit there, but still, a navy port isn't exactly science fiction.

Well, if the Crimea were to become allied with Western powers, then Sebastopol could soon start servicing the USN and Royal Navy. It's pretty obvious why Russia wouldn't be so keen on that, even if they do have their own Black Sea coast.

As for the civil war that seems to be brewing, I can only register my complete lack of surprise that dunderheaded Western leaders have managed to show flagrant disregard for the ideals they claim to support ("rule of law" my arse) and get even more blood on their hands, for no particular reason.

[Far-Right Sage]

Crimea parliament announces referendum on Ukrainian region’s future



The parliament of Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea has announced it will hold a referendum to determine the region’s future amid the turmoil in the country.

The region’s parliament said the all-Crimean referendum is about “improving the status of autonomy and expanding its powers.”

“According to the underlying principles of democracy, the presidium of the Crimean parliament considers that the only possible way out of the situation on the ground is applying the principles of direct rule of the people. We are confident that only by holding an All-Crimean referendum on the issue of improving the status of the Autonomy and expanding its powers Crimeans will be able to determine the future of the Autonomy on their own and without any external pressure,” Oksana Korniychuk, the press secretary of the head of the parliament, said in a statement on Thursday.

As a result of “the unconstitutional seizure of power in Ukraine by radical nationalists supported by armed gangs,” Crimea’s peace and order is “under threat,” the spokeswoman stressed.

The Wednesday clashes near the parliament’s building in Simferopol, which led to two deaths and about 30 injuries is “a result of rampant political extremism and violence gripping the country,” which could bring Ukraine to “complete chaos, anarchy and economic catastrophe,” Korniychuk said.

The Autonomy’s parliament thus takes “full responsibility for the future of Crimea,” relying on the will of its people, she said.

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-crimea-referendum-future-014/

[Beren]

Ukraine has no major strategic significance, except for the Black Sea Fleet.

Without Ukraine Putin's Eurasian Union will be Asian rather than European, so to speak.

However, I don't think there will be a war over the Crimea. If Crimea decides to secede, and maybe joins the Russian Federation, then it could foster Ukraine's breakup.

[Rugoz]

I thoroughly enjoy all the whining by the Russophiles here.

Ukraine showing Putin the bully the finger, at least temporarily, hilarious.

Regarding Yanukovich, the guy ordered unarmed protesters to be shot and ultimately fled like a chicken, nobody wants him back. Turchynov is backed by parliament and a legitimate interim president.

[Igor Antunov]

Turchynov is backed by parliament and a legitimate interim president.

You might want to explore the past couple of weeks, when armed gangs stormed parliament. As legitimate as any coup.

Crimea parliament announces referendum on Ukrainian region’s future

It seems the armed men are simply protecting parliament from violent pro-Ukrainian elements in the city as it undertakes referendum. Well done.

[Far-Right Sage]

In good time the smile will be wiped right off your face, Rugoz. You and that cretin Yatsenyuk who hopefully will be taken into special custody when the Russians begin to assert their rights in the region. Have you ever heard the phrase "provoking a sleeping giant"?

Putin will not let this stand; that I'm assured of.

[Thompson_NCL]

Sleeping giant...? Russia's demographic and economic decline doesn't really put it in the 'giant' league any more. But even so, Giants have been felled with slings before.

[Beren]

And how was Russia sleeping? It's been more than awake since Putin was elected in office the first time.

However, they must be really surprised or even shocked, this must be something they didn't expect.

[Rancid]

Let's say that most people in Crimea want to be a part of the Russian Federation, and Russia would gladly annex them. Who outside of the region would not want to see that happen and why?

[Fasces]

Not enough to start a war over it. There will be no invasion of Ukraine by any party. Russia is mobilizing solely to improve their position at the negotiating table, despite Igor's fantasies otherwise.

There may be sectarian violence (and a good old fashioned Cold War proxy conflict), and Crimea may vote to become autonomous or even secede, but not one Russian soldier will [officially] enter Eastern Ukraine as long as it is still eastern Ukraine.