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#14716030
I though I open this thread dealing with European eventual collapse.

DW
Enrico Letta (Ex Italian PM) wrote:France and Germany will have elections next year, probably Spain too. So we are entering a period in which, if you add the Italian referendum, you will have 12 months where politicians in the four big countries of the Euro-area will have to answer to their voters for their policies.
But if we continue to think that we have to wait until after the election at the national level before doing something, we will always be waiting and that is something we cannot afford to do because, frankly, I don't think the European problems can wait for twelve months. We are already in a process of disintegration, so if we have to wait until after the Italian referendum, the Spanish elections, French elections and German elections in September 2017, my fear is that there will no longer be a Europe in September 2017.


Euro Union is on the way for disintegration especially after Brexit, deteriorating economic and social prospect, rising of euro skeptic right wing parties, migration crisis, and in general dealing with progressive non-sense. Can EU really survive?

This video also has been a eye opener for me.

This is how bad things have gone south in EU, reminiscent of scenes when Soviet Union was collapsing.
#14717050
Albert wrote:I though I open this thread dealing with European eventual collapse.

[url=http://...
This is how bad things have gone south in EU, reminiscent of scenes when Soviet Union was collapsing.


I think that's vastly overestimated.
The level of organisation was, at this time, in the Eastern Block in a much worse condition, as well as prospects for the future had then been miserably.
I would say, dynamics are different, and resemblances are, albeit striking, not all ways a proper guide.
#14717793
Albert wrote:
Euro Union is on the way for disintegration especially after Brexit, deteriorating economic and social prospect, rising of euro skeptic right wing parties, migration crisis, and in general dealing with progressive non-sense. Can EU really survive?


If memory serves me correctly, Spain had some form of elections straight after Brexit and more EU friendly parties did better in them. Greece voted on EU austrity measures rather than leave the EU. Can the EU survive after Brexit? Yes and it must. The only thing that can topple the EU is arrogance. To keep the EU it must be stable and financially viable. So when negotionations take place after article 50 is triggered both the EU and the UK must be fair to one another. That will be on tarriffs and to a degree free movement with controls. If the EU and the UK have bad negotiations on movement, visa controls and trade, then the EU will collapse along with European (Inc UK) markets as Germany will lose a big trading partner, Spain, France and Greece on tourists and E. Europe on migrant wages. Britain would lose out on export opportunities and services. So the EU must survive and mainland Europe can finally have their superstate that they have wanted for years.
#14718766
Ian Bremmer wrote: Time

Brexit gets lots of attention, but it will take more than two years to unfold, and it’s not the risk Europe needs to be most worried about at the moment. These are the five most immediate risks Europe faces today.

1. Central and Eastern Europe

Austria is poised to elect the E.U.’s first far-right head of state in a little less than three months. It’s an important symbolic moment, even if Austria’s presidency holds little real power. Brussels thought it had dodged a bullet in May when ultra-rightwing candidate Norbert Hofer lost the presidency by a little less than 31,000 votes to the Green candidate. But technical flaws in the counting process led the country’s Constitutional Court to rule that the election must be run again. When Hofer’s party first entered a coalition government in 1999, E.U. institutions imposed diplomatic sanctions against the country. Now polls show Hofer ahead, and there’s nothing Brussels can do about it as political extremism goes mainstream in multiple E.U. countries.

Central and Eastern European countries have generally refused to fall in line with Brussels’ redistribution plan for Syrian refugees. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in particular has been quite outspoken against refugees, throwing up barriers to keep them from crossing into his country. On Oct. 2, Hungary will hold a referendum on whether voters in Hungary want their government to abide by Brussels’ burden-sharing plan as required by E.U. rules. Newsflash: they don’t. That spells more trouble for European unity.

2. Portuguese Economy

Of the original PIIGS—the unfortunate acronym used to describe Europe’s most beleaguered economies— Ireland is the only one out of the economic woodhouse. Spain and Italy are too systemically important for Eurozone members to do anything but help them muddle along, and Greece is a political and economic basket case that Brussels has all but written off as a sunk cost. Portugal, on the other hand, is in a financially precarious situation, and it has the potential to divide Europe even further. After a three-year, $88 billion bailout rescue package, Portugal remains stuck with a 11.1 percent unemployment rate and government debt nearing 130 percent of GDP. Put another way, Portugal is comparable to Greece in both total GDP as well as per capita GDP. But another bailout for a cash-strapped southern European country would trigger an uproar across E.U. capitals, plenty of whom are busy fending off challenges from their own nationalist parties.

3. Italian Referendum

Italy, another of the PIIGS, has had 63 governments in 71 years. By this metric, it is one of the most dysfunctional democracies in the world. But Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has a plan. To minimize political turnover, Renzi has proposed a slew of constitutional reforms that drastically simplify the country’s legislative process, making it easier to form stable governments. He has put these constitutional proposals to a referendum, slated to take place in the coming couple of months. But by vowing to resign if the referendum fails to pass, Renzi has fallen into the same trap as the U.K.’s David Cameron. Rather than a referendum on the merits of the proposed constitutional changes, it will become a referendum on Renzi himself—and his popularity is currently hovering at around 25 percent. Renzi still has a decent chance of pulling this out, but most opinion polls project the referendum to fail narrowly. Renzi’s resignation would plunge the Eurozone’s third-largest economy (and the world’s eighth-largest) into political turmoil—and pull the rest of Europe along with it.

4. Turkey

By harboring 2.7 million displaced Syrians on their side of the Aegean, the immediate future of Europe is highly dependent on a shaky agreement with a non-E.U. member, and one with a decidedly authoritarian streak. In the immediate aftermath of the July 15 failed coup attempt, Turkey’s political factions banded together in support of democracy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a welcome respite from the country’s usually divisive politics. But as Erdogan continues his crackdown on all those he considers threats—more than 40,000 individuals have been detained, punished and/or imprisoned—that honeymoon is drawing to a close. Political opponents have slowly started criticizing the Turkish president for his strong arm tactics, and their voices will only grow louder. Europe needs a politically-stable Turkey to live up to its end of the migration deal. If Europe isn’t careful, it may be the domestic politics of Turkey that does in the European project.

5. Germany

When the rock of Europe is included in a roundup of the top risks facing the E.U., you know the continent is in trouble. German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces backlash from the continuing rise of Alternative for Deutschland—the far-right anti-E.U., anti-Islam party—ahead of federal elections scheduled for the fall of 2017. For the first time ever, people are seriously asking whether Merkel will want to run for reelection; just 46 percent of Germans think that she should. The rise of anti-establishment parties in Germany makes navigating the domestic politics of the country a challenge; the rise of anti-establishment parties across the rest of Europe make maintaining European unity in the face of a lengthening list of challenges near impossible. Angela Merkel might well have the worst political job in the world.

And after all that comes Brexit. It’s a good time to be a political scientist; it’s a bad time to be a European politician.


He he he.
#14718801
Any organization or ideology that contradict human nature will fail.

Humans want cooperation, need cooperation,
but they don't like to be dictated by faceless people.
Humans understand the need to pay taxes,
but they don't understand a regime that takes all their money.
Humans need family ties, community, belonging to people and tradition,
they don't like those who denies those basic human needs.

Communism failed, and European Union will fail.
#14718802
Nikos Konstandaras wrote:New York Times

ATHENS — Democracies may be destined to dislike one another. When people have a decisive voice in government, they are guided by self-interest, and put their short-term concerns before those of neighbors or partners. In an effort to channel this endless ebb and flow of passions, institutions provide a framework of “rights” and “wrongs,” and governments function by persuading the greatest number of voters that they are doing the “right” thing.

What happens, however, when leaders are unable or unwilling to turn the tide of nationalism, xenophobia and self-interest?

In many liberal democracies, the network of systems that maintained stability and promoted prosperity (nationally and internationally) appears to be disintegrating. When people cannot be assured of continued prosperity, when they face mass immigration and the threat of terrorism, the pull of populism — with its simple messages of who is to blame and what is to be done — is strong. When leaders cannot (or will not) persuade citizens that their long-term interest lies in dialogue and consensus with other groups and nations, politicians find it even more difficult to do the right thing; they may be carried away by the forces that divide society into ever smaller self-interested groups.

Image

Greece has been on the front line of these changes. Here we first saw the collapse of confidence in elites and technocrats in Athens and Brussels. This was followed by the election of a formerly fringe party, Syriza, whose rejection of reform and austerity (in return for bailouts) was a dead end. The debt crisis has been compounded by the refugee crisis, provoking domestic turmoil and damaging relations with European Union partners. This has resulted in a long limbo. Recession continues and public and private debts increase, with more people falling behind in paying taxes, bank loans and social security fees. And there is further dependence on outside support.

Today the sources of that support are themselves under threat, none more so than the European Union. Economic difficulties and immigration are dividing nations, and pitting them against one another. Greece needs a reduction of its enormous public debt in order to function, but governments in creditor countries do not dare propose this to their voters. France and Italy are in favor of looser fiscal rules, which Germany refuses. Ad hoc alliances of “Northern” and “Southern” countries line up against one another. In several countries, hard-line nationalists openly challenge European Union principles of liberal democracy and solidarity — questioning even membership in the union.

On the refugee issue, Greece and Germany are on the same side, the former being the main entry point for the record 1 million refugees and migrants last year, the latter taking in the greatest number. Here, too, the European Union was split between countries trying to cope with the influx and adhering to the bloc’s principle of solidarity with those in need, and others who rejected an agreement under which member states would share the responsibility of hosting asylum seekers. These tensions, along with fear of terrorism, have resulted in fences being built and border controls returning to what had been a passport-free zone in Europe.

In July, a Pew Research Center survey in 10 European countries reflected how economic and security concerns compound each other. Among all the countries polled, 59 percent of respondents thought that refugees would increase the likelihood of terrorism in their country, and 50 percent saw refugees as a burden because they take jobs and use social benefits. In Greece, which has not suffered an attack in the current surge of Islamic-inspired terrorism, 72 percent worried about the economic burden, while 55 percent feared terrorism. In Germany, 31 percent of those surveyed worried about the economic burden, while 61 percent were concerned about increased terrorism.

Two of the European Union’s crowning achievements — monetary union and the eradication of borders — have become threats to its very existence. Britain’s vote to pull out of the union is the clearest evidence of this and a major threat in itself. The principles of solidarity among member states, and with the world’s needy, which are fundamental to the European Union’s core purpose, have been shaken. Diplomatic language was abandoned during the Greek debt crisis, and hostile outbursts have become frequent, not only in popular media but also between governments.

When battle lines over different issues are drawn across the Continent, alliances will shift continually, and consensus will become even more difficult. If no single, unifying policy can be adopted on a given issue, divisions will deepen. Then only outside intervention can break the deadlock. This is what the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan achieved after the carnage of World War II, allowing Europe’s nations to move toward democracy, open economies and, eventually, the European Union.

Today the United States is neither interested in nor capable of promoting anything equivalent to this. And Europe already has the benefits of liberal democracy and of a unification process that provided decades of peace and prosperity. Yet its nations still cannot agree on common policies that will control debt and promote growth; they are still wary of ceding enough sovereignty to solidify what is, in effect, still one of the world’s largest economies. The European Union was created to prevent a slide back into the Europe of the 1930s, when the democracies that had won World War I undermined one another in a climate of economic instability while autocratic rivals prepared for what became the greatest slaughter humanity has known.

When Chancellor Angela Merkel stands up to the German populists who fought against the bailout of Greece and are now making gains by opposing the settlement of refugees, she is keeping the flame of principle alive against the winds of expedience. “Change is not a bad thing,” she recently told her Parliament. “I am sure that if we stick to the truth, we will win back what we need — people’s trust.”

She needs that trust to be a voice of moral authority in Europe. It is crucial that she balance humanism on the refugee issue with a reassessment of her country’s priorities on economic issues, allowing closer economic union and promoting growth. Other leaders must be just as brave, working to persuade voters that the security and prosperity of each nation can be achieved only through collective action, not division.

Europe’s nations have a duty to confirm democracy’s resilience under pressure. The future of the union — the future of Europe — depends on this.
#14718851
Albert wrote:He he he.

Why do you think EUs current problems are funny? If you want a stable continent and partners to trade with a strong EU is best for the whole of Europe. I was reading this morning that Tusk wants sober and brutally honest talks on the EUs problems. I wish he said that in April. Brexit might not have happened and we would've had a reformed EU. Instead The EU ignored the rising voice of UK EU sceptics and brushed their concerns under the rug. Brexit really has shaken the EU council and woken them up to todays problems. Lets hope for the sakes of everyone, whatever side of the channel you're on, that they get to grips with the EUs current problems and the EU remains strong.
#14718871
If the EU collapses, it will be due to a complete lack of of flexibility in the face of changing circumstances. The fact the EU was not willing to reconsider freedom of movement in the face of growing discontent across Europe is bizarre. Rational actors would have said "Let's put some reasonable controls in place so individual nations aren't forced to take more internal immigrants than they want". But the EU leaders were so encumbered by ideology they were unable to do so. They were equally inflexible during the financial crisis and refugee crisis.

That is why the EU will fail if it does, a complete lack of flexibility to respond to crisis of the day.
#14718873
I don't see it collapsing overnight because that would cost some rich people a lot of money, but it does seem to be dying a slow death. Germany and Sweden are like liberal police states right now, people are afraid to talk but messages about crazy things happening leak out.
#14718878
Thompson_NCL wrote:If the EU collapses, it will be due to a complete lack of of flexibility in the face of changing circumstances.


I think you have hit the nail on the head here. And I think EU leaders are today beginning to take notice. Thank God Tuck has half a brain. Talks today need to be frank and they need to come up with answers quick. I expect EU leaders are angry about Brexit, but one thing they should be grateful for is they now can take action against the current anti EU feeling - that is currently facing the entire union and not just in the UK -before it reaches the break up of the entire union. To be honest, if leaders in the EU could come up with suitable reforms against free movement, I wouldn't be against a second referendum in the UK. After all, this is the issue that is dividing the UK today.
#14718879
If Tusk wants to preserve the Union, he should reign in Asselbom and Schulz. Those two are currently busy alienating the Visegrad bloc and when Hofer wins and Austria joins them, this will really come back to bite them in the ass.
#14718883
Hong Wu wrote:I don't see it collapsing overnight because that would cost some rich people a lot of money, but it does seem to be dying a slow death. Germany and Sweden are like liberal police states right now, people are afraid to talk but messages about crazy things happening leak out.


It's the people who vote that will determine the future of the EU. If anti EU parties start taking control of their states it will break apart. The EU needs to ask themselves an important question. What can we do to prevent the anti EU reteric? And the answer is controls on concerns. For example, when the Eastern European bloc became members in the EU, was the UK poor against them. No. There became hatred when living costs rised and wages for skilled work reduced. If the UK had controls that were sustainable with current construction, I assure you the UK wouldn't have even had a referendum. The EU needs to take their head out of the sand before the next country leaves the Union.
#14719138
Renzi, with his Referendum, is falling in the same trap of Cameron. But differently from the former British PM, he had no choice. He lacked the super-majority of 2/3 required to pass constitutional amendments without a referendum. The funny thing about Renzi is that the opposition to his reform is mainly coming from his own party, which was the case of Cameron too. But in the case of the Brexit vote, i have the feeling that the Brexit supporters (Johnson and others) didn't really want to win the vote; they were mostly looking for popularity. In the case of Renzi, his party is full of "Brutos", who bent in front of him after his electoral triumph, but are since then sharpening their knives to stab him in the back.

Few days after that Cameron announced his resignation, Britain had a new PM and a new stable government, with a new agenda. This will hardly be the case in Italy.
#14719861
B0ycey wrote:Why do you think EUs current problems are funny? If you want a stable continent and partners to trade with a strong EU is best for the whole of Europe. I was reading this morning that Tusk wants sober and brutally honest talks on the EUs problems. I wish he said that in April. Brexit might not have happened and we would've had a reformed EU. Instead The EU ignored the rising voice of UK EU sceptics and brushed their concerns under the rug. Brexit really has shaken the EU council and woken them up to todays problems. Lets hope for the sakes of everyone, whatever side of the channel you're on, that they get to grips with the EUs current problems and the EU remains strong.
It is mostly funny because of stupidity and arrogance of EU leaders. Tusk indeed seems like a lone voice of reason atm right now. But I fear it is to little to late.
#14719963
B0ycey wrote:It's the people who vote that will determine the future of the EU. If anti EU parties start taking control of their states it will break apart. The EU needs to ask themselves an important question. What can we do to prevent the anti EU reteric? And the answer is controls on concerns. For example, when the Eastern European bloc became members in the EU, was the UK poor against them. No. There became hatred when living costs rised and wages for skilled work reduced. If the UK had controls that were sustainable with current construction, I assure you the UK wouldn't have even had a referendum. The EU needs to take their head out of the sand before the next country leaves the Union.


Euroskeptisism has always been strongest in the UK, so I doubt others will follow its lead.

Varilion wrote:Renzi, with his Referendum, is falling in the same trap of Cameron. But differently from the former British PM, he had no choice. He lacked the super-majority of 2/3 required to pass constitutional amendments without a referendum. The funny thing about Renzi is that the opposition to his reform is mainly coming from his own party, which was the case of Cameron too. But in the case of the Brexit vote, i have the feeling that the Brexit supporters (Johnson and others) didn't really want to win the vote; they were mostly looking for popularity. In the case of Renzi, his party is full of "Brutos", who bent in front of him after his electoral triumph, but are since then sharpening their knives to stab him in the back.

Few days after that Cameron announced his resignation, Britain had a new PM and a new stable government, with a new agenda. This will hardly be the case in Italy.


Italy is interesting because it's the country where the Euro is the least popular and the 5-star movement has promised a referendum on the Euro. If Italy leaves the Eurozone...ouch.
#14720183
Rugoz wrote:Italy is interesting because it's the country where the Euro is the least popular and the 5-star movement has promised a referendum on the Euro. If Italy leaves the Eurozone...ouch.

Before they get to the referendum, interest rates on sovereign debts will go through the ceiling, Italy will need a bailout and the economy will crash. I think the Italians would just have another technocrat caretaker government until they can get back on track.

Right now the 5-star movement is getting hammered in Rome. The 5-star mayor can't cope with the city's problems.

Italian politics is messy, has always been messy and will always be messy.
#14720189
Atlantis wrote:Before they get to the referendum, interest rates on sovereign debts will go through the ceiling, Italy will need a bailout and the economy will crash.
That may well fuel anti-Euro sentiment. Italy's economy is too big to be treated like a second Greece. They may pull the rest of the EU with them into chaos. 8)

Right now the 5-star movement is getting hammered in Rome. The 5-star mayor can't cope with the city's problems.
And the mayors before her could? Do you really think this will sway voters who are fed up with the Euro?
#14721938
European 'Freak Show' Deutsche Bank Could Crush Emerging Markets
Forbes

Global investors need to keep their eyes on Deutsche Bank. It won’t only be bad for Germany. Small emerging markets in Europe, and the much bigger ones including Russia and Brazil will likely get the rug pulled out from under them if the German bank goes the way of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

“I don’t see how more trouble out of Europe is going to help the emerging market equity outlook,” says Vladimir Signorelli, founder of Bretton Woods Research, a boutique investment analysis firm based in New Jersey.

Deutsche Bank has been “soaking up the oxygen” on global equities for the last week. The stock is down 12.3% in the last five trading sessions and has already watched 51.3% of its market cap disappear this year.

Contrarians think that if DB goes belly up, it’s 2008 again…at least in Europe. And that’s probably bad news for riskier assets down market. From Aug. 31, 2008, when it looked pretty clear that Lehman and Bear Stearns were goners, until Oct. 31, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 37%. Brazil fell 48%. Russia, 52%. India 42% and China 39% in less than two months.

We can now see a crises of confidence in European financials. Commerzbank is down more than 30% year-to-date. Societe Generale of France is down 28%.

“No one with power in Berlin is talking pragmatically,” says Signorelli. “This kind of problem increases risk aversion worldwide and emerging markets often see capital flows whipsaw out of their markets as a result.”

Introducing the ‘Merkel Put’

So long as the negative interest rate policy persists in Europe, Deutsche Bank will see declining bank profits because that policy discourages people from putting money in savings accounts. It also arguably leads to less economic activity. Germany, the steam engine of Western Europe, saw its PMI numbers fall below consensus to 52.7 in September – a 16-month low –which suggest Germany’s economic outlook is cooling. Plus 50, however, is still better than another manufacturing power, China. But what those numbers show is that Germany is in a cooling phase.

Bad for DB. Worrisome for EM.

So where is the tipping point for Chancellor Angela Merkel? Must DB’s share price drop another 10%? 20%? Or even 50% before her position shifts on bailing the bank out?

Economic growth is finally returning to emerging markets, so another Western crisis is the last thing they need. Russia can use all the positive sentiment it can get. The same goes with Brazil. And to some extent, Mexico, which is watching its currency sink as locals take money out of the country.

One of the reasons for the success has been central banks of the region have been quite hawkish on inflation control. Inflation is a perennial problem in those countries. But at least these banks are easy to understand. In Europe, negative and zero interest rate policies were unheard of until a year ago. No one knows what to make of them. Even those who are bullish on it, if you can find them, think they are ticking time bombs.

These policies of emerging market banks stand “in stark contrast to the intractable mess developed markets find themselves in,” notes Devan Kaloo, head of global emerging markets equities at Aberdeen Asset Management.

Emerging market central banks have positioned themselves to cut rates again and restart growth, which has led bond prices to rally. As yields have fallen equities are also rallying especially in dud markets like Brazil, driving fund inflows and leading currencies to rally in slightly less liquid markets like Colombia. After working through recessions, both Brazil and Russia are forecast to deliver positive GDP growth in 2017 for the first time in years, says Kaloo. The trigger for this upswing in economic fundamentals in these poorer nations is not a rebound in commodity prices, but sound central bank moves that, as Kaloo puts it, “underlines the sustainability of this recovery trend.”

But Merkel and DB can undermine all that, at least from a sentiment perspective. And sentiment is what often drives portfolio flow into these markets in the first place. If there is a big event, companies there won’t invest, and we are back to zero growth and maybe recession again.

“Emerging market economies are the only ‘normal’ countries left in the world economy” says Jan Dehn, head of research at the Ashmore Group. “Developed countries look more and more like economic and political ‘freak shows’.”
#14723474

Hungary PM claims EU migrant quota referendum victory


BBC
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has declared victory in a referendum on mandatory EU migrant quotas, despite a low turnout that appeared to render it invalid.

Nearly 98% of those who took part supported the government's call to reject the EU plan.
But only 43% of the electorate voted, short of the 50% required to be valid.

A government spokesman said the outcome was binding "politically and legally" but the opposition said the government did not have the support it needed.

Mr Orban urged EU decision makers to take note of the result and said he would change Hungary's constitution to make the decision binding.

The controversial EU plan to relocate 160,000 migrants across the bloc would mean Hungary receiving 1,294 asylum seekers.

Ferenc Gyurcsany, leader of the opposition Democratic Coalition, said the low turnout showed that most people did not support the government.

"According to this result with such low turnout, the people do not support the government. And this is good. The migration issue outreaches Hungarian borders."

But a government spokesman said the result could not be regarded as invalid.
"The government initiated the referendum, so both politically and legally the outcome is binding," he said.

"The 50% would have made a difference because parliament could have no alternative but to make a decision. But parliament is behind the government regarding the decision. This is a reinforced mandate for the government."

During last year's migrant crisis, Hungary became a transit state on the Western Balkan route to Germany and other EU destinations.

In an effort to curb the influx, it sealed its border with Serbia and Croatia. The measure was popular at home but criticised by human rights groups.

The BBC's Nick Thorpe in Budapest says the low turnout will be disappointing for Mr Orban's Fidesz government following months of mobilisation and an expensive campaign.

Voters were asked: "Do you want the European Union to be able to mandate the obligatory resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens into Hungary even without the approval of the National Assembly?"
The EU proposal was meant to ease pressure on Greece and Italy, the main entry points for migrants and refugees into the bloc.

In December Hungary filed a court challenge against the EU plan, which would see relocations over two years

He he

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