[Hong Wu]

1) Le Pen is 48 years old. In terms of western politicians, she's a youth. She can not only run again in the next election (benefiting from having made it into a run-off), she can run again five or more elections from now. The National Front is also not lacking in sufficient talent among its younger members.

2) The National Front's support is highest among young people. A person generally gets more conservative as they get older, not more liberal. The National Front has nowhere to go but up at this point. The only possible exception is if a more moderate government succeeds in assimilating the steady stream of refugees, many of whom are illiterate in their native language, also getting them productive jobs, even though youth unemployment for native young French is historically high. I could go on about how the west deliberately outsourced labor jobs to other countries while simultaneously bringing in the world's illiterate unskilled laborers, engaging in a Faustian bargain to stave off communism by dividing the working class against itself; now the cost of this bargain may ultimately mean the erasure of western white people as a distinct identity; but that would be getting too tangential since I'm not even a communism.

3) What we're looking at then is an inevitable NF victory in France. The question is only when. The longer it takes the French to switch off the "gravy train" the worse the unrest and possible insurgency against native French people will be. It seems unthinkable however that other western powers, like an increasingly conservative America and UK, would let France fail. The ultimate outcome of this then is that all of the people who get their benefits cut and get their protests physically quashed will head somewhere else to get their free stuff. This, finally, brings me to Sweden.

4) The culmination of unrest in France will be a concentration of the worst migrants into the European countries that will still take them; they certainly won't be allowed back into Muslim countries which have largely refused to accept them in the first place. It's unclear how Germany will handle this but the most likely point of destination for these people will be Sweden. When this happens, Sweden will be looking at perhaps over 70% of their youth population being Muslims who are cognizant of having recently lost a fight in France. One generation after that, we can expect full sharia law and physical subjugation of remaining white people in Sweden, which will basically become an Arab country.

[noir]

Bothering about the "Sweden is Doomed" thing. On the one hand, for old South Africa it's a poetic justice for a country who helped to destroy their homeland, (apartheid is evil, but under the pressure of the world, which the Scandinavians where some of the vocal of them, SA had to accept an uncompromised peace deal with ANC, which finished European SA.)

On the other and, we have difficulty to accept that most of the Swedes don't see any wrong with Sweden loosing its previous gemographic make up. It seems to us strange, but that's what they like. They want to be a rainbow nation like South Africa, good for them. It doesn't necessarily mean "doomed".

[colliric]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/34500606/ye ... in-france/

Le Pen will win in my opinion. I actually think it's a more hotly contested result(Clinton was far more tainted than the French candidates are) and likely to be tight as hell. But her polling is good and the outlook is positive.

[Frollein]

From that article:

The pressure on 62-year-old Fillon moved up a notch on Friday when prosecutors announced he would face a full judicial investigation into the claims.

I can't find it now, but didn't Fillon say back when that scandal first surfaced that he would drop out of the race if they'd open an official investigation?

[Owsley]

1) Le Pen is 48 years old. In terms of western politicians, she's a youth. She can not only run again in the next election (benefiting from having made it into a run-off), she can run again five or more elections from now. The National Front is also not lacking in sufficient talent among its younger members.

She can also lose the next 5 elections and so can Marion or whoever Marine is replaced with.

2) The National Front's support is highest among young people. A person generally gets more conservative as they get older, not more liberal. The National Front has nowhere to go but up at this point. The only possible exception is if a more moderate government succeeds in assimilating the steady stream of refugees, many of whom are illiterate in their native language, also getting them productive jobs, even though youth unemployment for native young French is historically high. I could go on about how the west deliberately outsourced labor jobs to other countries while simultaneously bringing in the world's illiterate unskilled laborers, engaging in a Faustian bargain to stave off communism by dividing the working class against itself; now the cost of this bargain may ultimately mean the erasure of western white people as a distinct identity; but that would be getting too tangential since I'm not even a communism.

Let's look at the polling.

First round
Le Pen
18-24: 32%
25-34: 28%
35-49: 28%
50-64: 29%
65+: 19%

Macron:
18-24: 23%
25-34: 29%
35-49: 19%
50-64: 26%
65+: 22%

Second round (Macron / Le Pen)
Le Pen
18-24: 39%
25-34: 35%
35-49: 43%
50-64: 38%
65+: 35%

Macron
18-24: 61%
25-34: 65%
35-49: 57%
50-64: 62%
65+: 65%

http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLI ... 2-2017.pdf

She can not depend on young people for the next elections. Her support among young people is high, but not much higher than her support among older people under 65. She loses the second round with the help of young people.

3) What we're looking at then is an inevitable NF victory in France. The question is only when. The longer it takes the French to switch off the "gravy train" the worse the unrest and possible insurgency against native French people will be. It seems unthinkable however that other western powers, like an increasingly conservative America and UK, would let France fail. The ultimate outcome of this then is that all of the people who get their benefits cut and get their protests physically quashed will head somewhere else to get their free stuff. This, finally, brings me to Sweden.

4) The culmination of unrest in France will be a concentration of the worst migrants into the European countries that will still take them; they certainly won't be allowed back into Muslim countries which have largely refused to accept them in the first place. It's unclear how Germany will handle this but the most likely point of destination for these people will be Sweden. When this happens, Sweden will be looking at perhaps over 70% of their youth population being Muslims who are cognizant of having recently lost a fight in France. One generation after that, we can expect full sharia law and physical subjugation of remaining white people in Sweden, which will basically become an Arab country.

Pure insanity.

[B0ycey]

I can't find it now, but didn't Fillon say back when that scandal first surfaced that he would drop out of the race if they'd open an official investigation?

He did. But so what? Macron is leading the election, not Fillon. It was always going to be Le Pen Vs Macron/Fillon in the second round. Macron has less skeltons, so it is better that it is he in the second round than Fillon in my opinion. If Fillon did drop out, that only hinders Le Pen, not helping her out.

[Frollein]

He did. But so what?

Just curious if he would keep true to his word. Predictably, he isn't.

While Fillon previously said he would drop out of the race if placed under formal investigation, he has since reneged on the pledge, saying he would maintain his candidacy.

It was always going to be Le Pen Vs Macron/Fillon in the second round. Macron has less skeltons, so it is better that it is he in the second round than Fillon in my opinion. If Fillon did drop out, that only hinders Le Pen, not helping her out.

Macron wasn't even on the radar when Fillon won the preliminaries. He was only championed by the media after "Penelopegate." As the other hopefuls are slowly realizing that they don't stand a chance, I fully expect some dirt to be dug up on Macron. After all, no politician advances without collecting skeletons. It's just a question of whether his particular skeletons hit a nerve with the French public, as did Fillon's.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I agree that the FN doesn't have to win, although it doesn't necessarily mean that we are looking at an inevitable win in the future. It's at least possible that the centre right comes to its senses and returns to sanity. If it does, it will in my view be able to achieve landslide victories, possibly in a coalition with the far right where applicable, not only in France but in many European countries.

What gets me is that this has been brewing in Continental Europe for ages, but it's the UK and the US - where this seemingly came out of the blue - which are giving the necessary momentum.

Here's hoping that Farage is right:

[noemon]

I giggled with Farage talking about a global revolution that will change government around the world to alt-right. Governments around the world are already further to the right than the alt-right and have been so for decades. Russia, China, Japan, Australia, the Middle-East, Africa, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe. The only countries that were ever truly globalist and open was the UK & the US due to the British & American Empires.

And that is why they are the only 2 countries that this is taking place because they are the only 2 countries where this was not already normative.

[Frollein]

You left out Western Europe in your list, and for a reason, I think; when Farage talks about a "world revolution," he is of course talking about the Western world - the Angloshpere and their client states.

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

4) The culmination of unrest in France will be a concentration of the worst migrants into the European countries that will still take them; they certainly won't be allowed back into Muslim countries which have largely refused to accept them in the first place. It's unclear how Germany will handle this but the most likely point of destination for these people will be Sweden. When this happens, Sweden will be looking at perhaps over 70% of their youth population being Muslims who are cognizant of having recently lost a fight in France. One generation after that, we can expect full sharia law and physical subjugation of remaining white people in Sweden, which will basically become an Arab country.

This is literally just you saying stuff because you feel like it's true without actually trying to verify any of what you're saying.

3) What we're looking at then is an inevitable NF victory in France.

Lol we've heard that before. The commies also think their beliefs are inevitable.

[noemon]

You left out Western Europe in your list, and for a reason, I think; when Farage talks about a "world revolution," he is of course talking about the Western world - the Angloshpere and their client states.

In western Europe you have France where a social democrat government has declared a permanent state of emergency and has the army chasing immigrants on the streets, then you have Germany who has a massive trade surplus, how can any German in his right mind support protectionist/anti-globalist policies that would impose tariffs on German exports reducing the huge surpluses that Germany enjoys? You have Austria who is also sending her troops to stop migrants. Then you have Scandinavia that has its own social-democratic/capitalist system that has created astounding amounts of wealth & happiness for its people. Sweden has gone from bankrupt in the 90's to a leading economy today, highly doubtful that the people in these countries are looking for alternatives.

[Frollein]

Because the neoliberals have caused social havoc with their irresponsible immigration policy. Do you really think the current nationalist shift has economic reasons?

[noemon]

Even when someone says it's not about the money...it's still about the money. It is economic insecurity mainly.

[Frollein]

That's mostly true for those who have the money.

Here in Germany, people feel no longer safe in the streets, and now not even in their homes. Just today a murder case has hit the headlines, where two people were killed and one severely injured by robbers breaking into their home. While that may be normal in other parts of the world, it is basically unheard of in Germany.

People are afraid. They feel that the state is no longer able, and what's worse, no longer willing to do its job on that front. That has nothing to do with "the money."

[noemon]

These are murder rate stats(per capita) most of them from 2010. Germany's stats are from 2010 and they were rather high compared to other countries, comparable to Iraq and far higher than other EU countries save for the UK & France.

The migrant/insecurity fear is bound to subside when the situation becomes stable and it is largely confined in the areas where it is felt.

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

That's mostly true for those who have the money.

Here in Germany, people feel no longer safe in the streets, and now not even in their homes. Just today a murder case has hit the headlines, where two people were killed and one severely injured by robbers breaking into their home. While that may be normal in other parts of the world, it is basically unheard of in Germany.

People are afraid. They feel that the state is no longer able, and what's worse, no longer willing to do its job on that front. That has nothing to do with "the money."

You think people break into homes when they have jobs? I would say that robbers tend to be about the money. And while that is scary, why do individual crimes dictate how you feel about the world?

[noir]

Is it this case? It doesn't sound robbery case, something about lonely hearts ad

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scott ... an-9848392

[Frollein]

:?: You think people break into homes when they have jobs? I would say that robbers tend to be about the money. And while that is scary, why do individual crimes dictate how you feel about the world?

You can of course ignore the psychological impact these incidents have on the general population. *shrug* and then wonder aloud on the internet why people all of a sudden don't vote for your leftist rainbow utopia anymore. People don't become xenophobic just because. And just because you don't like my observations about the atmosphere in my country doesn't mean they are invalid.

News like these compound the basic sense of loss of control that spread during the "refugee crisis." This will influence people's perception of the state and that, in turn, will change how they vote.



noir: that's not the case I was referring to. It's this one.

[One Degree]

Even when someone says it's not about the money...it's still about the money. It is economic insecurity mainly.

I don't think so. I think this is just more refusal to understand what people are objecting to. It has always been about the money so it still must be about the money allows you to disregard the uncomfortable idea that people are taking an 'intelligent' position against 'individualism' and 'globalism'. They are willing to pay to abandon this experiment. Call it 'racist' and 'bigoted', but it does not change the fact people want to have control of their own communities again. Some of them express this in a racist way that is misleading.