[Rugoz]

I am interested in the Europhile EU lovers opinion on the election result. Yet it is strangely quite.

The ÖVP is not a eurosceptic party.

[foxdemon]

I would imagine most euro-skeptic parties would happily go pro EU if Brussels changed their political philosophy.

[Ter]

I am interested in the Europhile EU lovers opinion on the election result. Yet it is strangely quite.

Yes, I am also waiting and enjoying this.
In the meantime, I am farting in the general direction of the Europhiles.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Rugoz is right that the OEVP is not euroskeptic and Kurz won't change that. He has also already ruled out joining the Visegrad group and in that context stated that he wants Austria to be at the centre of the EU and mediate between the two sides.

Chances for a OEVP-FPOE coalition look good. The two parties are closer in their programmes than either of them is with the SPOE which would be the only other option. Most OEVP members are also against forming yet another coalition with the SPOE, especially since the main reason for the snap election was that there was no way forward in the grand coalition. I'm mostly interested whether the FPOE will press for more direct democracy in the negotiations.

In other good news the Greens did not manage to get past the 4% hurdle and so won't be in parliament, although that's mainly due to one high profile member setting up his own party, which will be in parliament but with far fewer MPs.

Final results:
OEVP - 31.5%
SPOE - 26.9%
FPOE - 26.0%
NEOS - 5.3% (liberal democrats)
PILZ - 4.4% (former member of the Greens)
GREENS - 3.8%
OTHER - 2.2%

Turnout: 80%

[Ter]

@Kaiserschmarrn
So, after all is said and done, how much of a setback is this for the EU ?
Since the winner billionaire had an anti-EU platform, why will he not join the Visegrad Group ? Stopping mass immigration sounds like a good common policy for all of them.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

@Ter, the setback is mostly a symbolic one. The main achievement, in my view, is that the right and many of its views are normalised and in some cases the centre parties have adopted/copied the right's policies.

As for real setbacks, the EU will probably have to acknowledge that they have to drop attempting to redistribute refugees. They must have realised by now that this is toxic for relations with Eastern Europe. I wouldn't be surprised if they will start to try to mend fences.

Any further integration will also be difficult. Euroskepticism in Central Europe usually means opposition to more integration and at most wanting to repatriate some competencies. To my knowledge none of governing parties in Eastern Europe advocates for leaving the EU, and the most euroskeptic party in Austria, the FPOE, doesn't either.

Austria joining the Visegrad group was always highly unlikely. Taking sides would be seen as a snub by Western Europe and Austria has always liked to see itself as a bridge between east and west. I expect that it will continue to sit on the fence for the foreseeable future.

Edit: Just to clarify, the winner billionaire has won in the Czech Republic, not in Austria. The winner in Austria is Kurz, the young one with the big ears.

[foxdemon]

Yes, I am also waiting and enjoying this.
In the meantime, I am farting in the general direction of the Europhiles.

It is better than prime time TV — reaches for a handful of popcorn —



@Kaiserschmarrn

Well maybe. If the idiots in Brussels, Paris and Berlin have any sense they will compromise. There is going to be a lot of squealing from left leaning institutions, particularly UN institutions, if they do cave in.

But from a pro European point of view, they should put Europe and Europeans first. If they want the European project to succeed, then it is the people of Europe that need to be engaged to make this happen. One can’t reject one’s own heritage for the benefit of just any old bastard in the world and expect good to come of it.

I would be dishonest if I were to say I did not feel any pleasure in watching the pompous, self righteous liberal humanists fall on their faces. — reaches for another handful of popcorn —

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Well maybe. If the idiots in Brussels, Paris and Berlin have any sense they will compromise. There is going to be a lot of squealing from left leaning institutions, particularly UN institutions, if they do cave in.

But from a pro European point of view, they should put Europe and Europeans first. If they want the European project to succeed, then it is the people of Europe that need to be engaged to make this happen. One can’t reject one’s own heritage for the benefit of just any old bastard in the world and expect good to come of it.

I don't know how they will deal with future migration pressures in general, but it seems obvious by now that the redistribution is a non-starter. Not only does it affect a relatively small number of people anyway, but many of those people often return to Western Europe soon (as in the case of the Baltics) and it has strained relations. It's not worth the cost.

I would be dishonest if I were to say I did not feel any pleasure in watching the pompous, self righteous liberal humanists fall on their faces. — reaches for another handful of popcorn —

I will be enjoying VdB, the Austrian president, having to confirm a government with FPOE participation.

--------------------------------------

Something less well known outside Austria is that the FPOE is actually in favour of EU enlargement in the Balkans, specifically the accession of Serbia. They have been courting Serbs living in Austria for some time now.

[foxdemon]

Something less well known outside Austria is that the FPOE is actually in favour of EU enlargement in the Balkans, specifically the accession of Serbia. They have been courting Serbs living in Austria for some time now.

I noticed the Austrians have been insisting procedures be followed in regard to Brexit. They aren’t anti-EU in the way of British Eurosceptics.

For me, I am not fussed if the EU falls apart or not. What matters is that the corrosive ideology currently dominate in the West losses its grip. I’d like to see the EU to become more pluralist in ideology, that is to say, develops a strong counter ideology to progressive liberal thinking. That will reduce the influence of that ideology in my own country. The situation in Austria is, therefore, completely acceptable.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I noticed the Austrians have been insisting procedures be followed in regard to Brexit. They aren’t anti-EU in the way of British Eurosceptics.

For me, I am not fussed if the EU falls apart or not. What matters is that the corrosive ideology currently dominate in the West losses its grip. I’d like to see the EU to become more pluralist in ideology, that is to say, develops a strong counter ideology to progressive liberal thinking. That will reduce the influence of that ideology in my own country. The situation in Austria is, therefore, completely acceptable.

Yes, most Austrians have fully bought into the idea that all Britain has ever wanted is "cherry picking". Interestingly, the Danes don't have that image although they are quite similar with their many opt-outs. It's probably a combination of other "cherry pickers" piggybacking on Britain, which has always been the most vocal and visible in that respect, and that the EU and its future isn't challenged by our press or anybody else. As a German speaker you have to read Swiss media if you want to get a more balanced view.

I care a bit more than you about what happens to the EU in the future and don't think it falling apart would be the best outcome. It had many positive effects which are worth preserving. I agree that the ideological underpinning is the main problem. Maybe we will see a reform from within led by Eastern Europe?

Yesterday I read an editorial by a centre right Austrian newspaper about the independence declaration in Catalonia and how the EU was partly to blame for it, but in what seems to be very typical for the centre right today their focus was extremely narrow. Rather than addressing the fundamental challenge that the EU poses to the European nation states, it only mentioned the EU's regional policy which, they claimed, was to some extent responsible for encouraging existing independence movements. This may well be right, but it's willful blindness to only concentrate on one of the EU's policies and ignore the big elephant in the room, the EU itself.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

So it looks like Austria has an OEVP-FPOE government.

The most interesting part for me, direct democracy, was predictably watered down significantly. I guess it's one step at the time ...

Open Europe is not far off with their article on the EU policy that can be expected and the open questions, e.g. there's nothing radical about this government but it will tend towards the brakes when it comes to more integration:

What EU policy under Austria’s new right-wing government?

As Austria's new government takes office, Open Europe's Leopold Traugott delves into the coalition agreement to explain what we can expect in terms of EU policy.

After two months of negotiations, the new Austrian government on Saturday presented its coalition treaty and today was officially sworn in. The coalition of the centre-right People’s Party (OVP) and the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) has already caused outcry in foreign capitals. Fears are running high that under its new government Austria may block further integration and, in the worst case, gradually align itself with the governments in Poland and Hungary who are increasingly at loggerheads with Brussels. To help distinguish campaigning rhetoric from concrete aims and proposals, I take a quick look at what the coalition treaty signed by both parties says on Europe. This will become even more important considering that Austria will take up the European Council presidency in the second half of 2018.

Europe yes, but not too much

Fears of an anti-European government taking hold in Vienna were always overblown, as I have stated earlier. The coalition treaty is clear about the new government’s general commitment to the EU. The first chapter of the treaty – “State and Europe” – sets out that “The future of Austria is linked to the European project of peace and unity. Our home country is an integral part of the European Union and the Euro common currency . We will, as an active and reliable partner, contribute to the further development of the EU.” The OVP even managed to convince the Freedom Party to formally end its flirt with a referendum on Austria’s EU membership. Instead, both parties now stress that the EU “is not just an economic community, but also a community of values.” So far, so good?

Well, things become a bit trickier when we turn to what the coalition actually identifies as the “further development” it seeks to support. Proving they have done their homework, the two parties refer to the recent European Commission white paper on EU reform, singling out scenario four (‘Do less, but more efficiently’) as their desired path. “The principle of subsidiarity has to be central,” they stress, “We want an EU that tackles the big issues, to protect the citizens of its member states.” As first concrete steps in this direction, they propose the “introduction of a subsidiarity test in the parliamentary process” and the use of a “one-in-one-out rule” for legislative acts. The Austrian presidency of the European Council, which will take place during the second half of 2018, will be used to “contribute to a change of course in the EU to bring the union closer to its citizens.”

Strengthen Europe’s borders

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz had built his reputation as foreign minister on closing the Balkan route for refugees coming into Europe. That he would continue to pursue a policy of strong borders thus comes as little surprise – particularly now that he is in a coalition with the far right. In concrete terms, the government aims at “bringing those rescued at sea into ‘Rescue Centres’ outside the EU, instead of actively bringing them inside the EU.” As complementary measures to this hard border approach, Austria wants to agree on the resettlement of “particularly vulnerable groups” directly from countries of origin. Additional “repatriation agreements” shall be struck to deport quicker those asylum seekers who have been rejected.

In a separate part of the agreement, they elaborate, “As long as there are no practical and satisfying solutions to prevent illegal immigration at the European level, the issues of asylum and migration as pertaining to Europe will remain an Austrian competency and be regulated by Austria.” In practical terms, this will likely mean continued support for temporary border controls inside the Schengen zone.

Little concrete on Russia and Ukraine

Much has been made of Austria’s particular geographical location in Mitteleuropa, a “historic hub between East and West” as the two parties put it. They aim at leveraging this role to be “an active place of dialogue and bring forward a policy of détente between the West and Russia.” On the thorny question of EU sanctions against Moscow, the coalition agreement only states it wants to “gradually remove the sanctions […] in a European unison.” This is also supposed to include a more active role on the Ukraine conflict, where Vienna wants to “reduce tensions” and “defuse the conflict.” There is a lack of concrete steps to reach each of these goals. Still, considering the Freedom Party’s close relationship with Moscow (on which I have written previously) and its questionable stance on the annexation of the Crimea, the agreement’s part on Russia and the Ukraine may simply represent a silent compromise from both sides.

How cosy with the Visegrad bloc?

Austria’s relationship with the Visegrad states (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic) has been repeatedly discussed through the last year. On the one hand, there is the fear in certain European capitals of Austria further aligning itself with or outright joining the bloc – a proposal made by Freedom Party chairman Heinz-Christian Strache in the past. This would further tilt the balance in Europe to the detriment of Brussels, Paris and Berlin, and render constructive policy making even more difficult. On the other hand, there is the hope that Austria can serve as a mediator between the two blocs and help bridge ideological divides in favour of pragmatic solutions. While the coalition treaty remains largely silent on the question, committing itself merely to “further strengthen cooperation with the neighbouring Central European states,” it will be one of the key issues to watch in 2018.

Let the Balkans in, keep Turkey out

As one of the few EU member states directly bordering on the Western Balkans, Austria wants accession candidates from the region to be supported in their applications “on basis of their individual progress” rather than by treating them as a bloc. Regarding Turkey the tone is harsher, as the two parties demand a “clear policy towards Turkey” and oppose the country’s accession to the EU. They “seek allies to achieve a final cancellation of the EU accession negotiations, in favour of a Turkish-European neighbourhood concept.”

The Freedom Party’s ugly company

While Sebastian Kurz has managed to convincingly keep himself and his People’s Party on a politically rather mainstream course, less can be said of his new junior partner, the Freedom Party. The FPO’s four members of European Parliament currently sit with the Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom (MENL) party, a far-right alliance led by the French Front National. Last weekend, the MENL organised a meeting of far-right organisations and activists in Prague, where Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders called the EU an “existential threat” and the Front National’s Marine Le Pen called the bloc a “catastrophically disastrous organisation.” In between, they cheered that their Austrian allies had made it into power.

Kurz managed to keep the Freedom Party out of EU affairs to a large extent. They received a number of key ministries, but had to compromise on many of their more radical positions. The foreign ministry was given to the Freedom Party on the condition that it nominated a formally neutral candidate, Karin Kneissl. To play it extra safe, most competencies relating to EU policies were reallocated from the foreign ministry to the OVP-controlled chancellery. Still, having part of the government sit in an alliance whose members to a large extent outright oppose the EU will pose difficulties for Kurz’ government. Some are claiming that the Freedom Party is set to leave the MENL to join a more moderate party, yet this is unlikely to happen before the upcoming European elections in 2019.

‘Promising less, more efficiently’?

Beyond the pro-EU platitudes and commitments to subsidiarity, the coalition agreement is rather thin on European questions. Of course, a government aiming at a slimmed-down EU does not need elaborate plans a la Emmanuel Macron (who demands a Eurozone finance minister, European universities, and a European innovation agency) or tough timetables a la Martin Schulz (who demands a United States of Europe by 2025). Still, considering the current spirit for reform in Europe – not to forget Austria’s Council presidency in six months’ time – one might be forgiven to have expected a bit more detail. While the proposals on securing the EU’s external borders deliver some first direction, the Eurozone does not feature a single time in the 182-page document. Much remains to be seen. That Austria will lend its support to Macron’s plans for far-reaching Eurozone reform can already be doubted.

[Rugoz]

The most interesting part for me, direct democracy, was predictably watered down significantly. I guess it's one step at the time ..

Watered down? Dropped entirely.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Watered down? Dropped entirely.

I guess, I was a bit too charitable there. It was postponed.

The funniest thing is the number of required signatures to initiate a referendum. Before the election the FPOE wanted 250,000 and the OEVP 650,000. The compromise somehow ended up to be 800,000. Together with postponing the introduction to 2022 it's probably fair to say that they got cold feet.

Of course, even if the current proposal makes it into law in 2022, they made sure that an EU referendum would be impossible. And not only that, but as I read it anything that clashes with EU law could not be decided by a referendum either.

[Rugoz]

I guess, I was a bit too charitable there. It was postponed.

The funniest thing is the number of required signatures to initiate a referendum. Before the election the FPOE wanted 250,000 and the OEVP 650,000. The compromise somehow ended up to be 800,000. Together with postponing the introduction to 2022 it's probably fair to say that they got cold feet.

Of course, even if the current proposal makes it into law in 2022, they made sure that an EU referendum would be impossible. And not only that, but as I read it anything that clashes with EU law could not be decided by a referendum either.

They postponed it by 4 years because that's how long they are guaranteed to remain in power. They might implement it at the end of the legislature if they can expect to end up in the opposition, though in that case the current opposition parties might not agree (2/3 required).

Even then, collecting 900'000 signatures in 1 week is an absurdly high hurdle. For comparison, in Switzerland the requirement is 50'000 signatures in 3 months for a veto referendum and 100'000 in 18 months for a constitutional amendment (not foreseen in Austria). Moreover, signatures can be collected in public places and by mail, while in Austria you have to turn up at the municipal administration to sign.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

They postponed it by 4 years because that's how long they are guaranteed to remain in power. They might implement it at the end of the legislature if they can expect to end up in the opposition, though in that case the current opposition parties might not agree (2/3 required).

Even then, collecting 900'000 signatures in 1 week is an absurdly high hurdle. For comparison, in Switzerland the requirement is 50'000 signatures in 3 months for a veto referendum and 100'000 in 18 months for a constitutional amendment (not foreseen in Austria). Moreover, signatures can be collected in public places and by mail, while in Austria you have to turn up at the municipal administration to sign.

It's quite ridiculous. I'm not even sure anymore if I want this to pass into law. Probably better to keep the pressure up to get something that's actually useful.

Off topic but I take it the Brexit situation hasn't been helpful for Switzerland. It looks like the EU is making a stand not only on the free movement issue but in other negotiations as well, e.g. the stock market.

[Rugoz]

Off topic but I take it the Brexit situation hasn't been helpful for Switzerland. It looks like the EU is making a stand not only on the free movement issue but in other negotiations as well, e.g. the stock market.

Yep, we're at the point where the EU is violating WTO rules to exercise political pressure on us. Looks like Brexit makes them lose their head.

https://www.derbund.ch/schweiz/standard ... y/17709413

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Yep, we're at the point where the EU is violating WTO rules to exercise political pressure on us. Looks like Brexit makes them lose their head.

https://www.derbund.ch/schweiz/standard ... y/17709413

Not that EU-philes are likely to acknowledge it, but it's hard to explain stuff like this with anything other than discouraging countries to leave or pressuring them into joining for the sake of it. Have they given an explanation why regulatory equivalence for Australia and the US isn't restricted to a year while for Switzerland it is?

As for direct democracy, Switzerland isn't very helpful for us either at the moment. I'm sure your current initiatives are causing horror and panic among our politicians. National law over international law? Abolishing public television?