[Kaiserschmarrn]

Make Austria Great Again: The rapid rise of Sebastian Kurz

The conservative party that 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz has reshaped in his own image is polling in first place ahead of Austria's national vote in October. A look at the country's unprecedented election.



Flying under the radar as Western politics grapples with Brexit negotiations, an unpredictable White House and Germany's national vote in September , there is something nevertheless strange and noteworthy afoot in Austria as it approaches its own elections on October 15. The man at the center of these unprecedented developments is Sebastian Kurz. He first rose to prominence in 2013, when at 27 he became the world's youngest serving foreign minister - looking practically pubescent in photo ops with counterparts of the time, including US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's Javad Zarif.


Although he wants to appear a political outsider, Kurz has touted his role in the landmark Iran nuclear deal talks, one round of which were held in Vienna

Though small - it may only have a population the size of London's - Austria is still ahead of countries like the UK, Germany, and Canada in terms of GDP per capita according to the World Bank. Indeed, Vienna has topped Mercer's Quality of Living survey every year since 2010.

The man who would be king

Now, Kurz is angling to become chancellor of his rich and powerful country at just 31 years old. A goal he looks ever more likely to achieve. In the past six months, Kurz has taken power of his conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and pushed for a snap election in October (which was then approved by parliament). He has also replaced the ÖVP on the ballot with the "Sebastian Kurz List." Though all the candidates on the list are backed by the ÖVP, it nevertheless gives the impression that he has renamed a major political party after himself.

Kurz has also caused as stir with some of his hardline political positions, such as calls to strengthen the EU's outer borders and end NGO rescues of refugees in the Mediterranean - prompting Germany's conservative Die Welt newspaper to accuse the politician of being "hard-hearted." "He is a power-hungry neoliberal," one young voter in Vienna who asked not to be named told DW. "What does he want? The Hapsburg empire back again?" "He's also cultivated an image as a political outsider, despite having been foreign minister for four years."


A trip to Macedonia in February only strengthened Kurz's desire for increased EU border security to stem the tide of refugees

'A conservative Macron or Trudeau'

According to Professor Peter Filzmaier, a political scientist with Austria's Krems and Graz universities, what Kurz has accomplished is "unprecedented in Austrian politics, but also quite logical." "The ÖVP is an extremely complex organization, dependent on municipal and regional bodies," said Filzmaier. "He consolidated decision-making functions under the party leader, namely, himself. That's not to say he's given himself extreme powers, but it has given him a bigger say over who runs for the ÖVP at the national election." Filzmaier also downplayed concerns that Kurz is seeking to become some sort of anti-immigrant nationalist leader in the vein of Hungary's Viktor Orban or the US' Donald Trump, stressing that the young politician is ardently pro-EU. "He sees himself more as a conservative Emmanuel Macron or Justin Trudeau," Filzmaier said. "He hasn't started his own party like Macron, but he has tried to make his changes in the ÖVP look like a new movement. And it's working. Before he took over party leadership in the spring, the ÖVP was lagging in third place at 20 percent in the polls. Now, it's in first place at over 30 percent."

Possible boon for far-right populists

The political scientist was cautious in appraising Kurz's chances of becoming chancellor. "Twenty-five percent of voters are still undecided after all," Filzmaier said. "What will be far more interesting is coalition negotiations after the election." Kurz's ÖVP has been ruling in a so-called "grand coalition" with their natural rivals, the Social Democrats (SPÖ) since 2007. But now, Austria's two biggest parties have both said they refuse to rule together again.

This could prove a huge boon to the far-right populist Freedom Party (FPÖ), which made many in the European Union quite nervous during Austria's 2016 presidential election. Although the Austrian presidency is more of a ceremonial position than a powerful one, it was still a strong sign of some of the anti-immigrant fears wrought by the 2015 refugee crisis that the FPÖ's candidate Norbert Hofer won the first round of the vote with 35.1 percent support (He was eventually beaten by the Green party's Alexander van der Bellen in a run-off). "The SPÖ and the ÖVP deciding not to govern together means there is an actual chance of the FPÖ ending up in a governing coalition," Filzmaier explained, because whether the Green party garners enough votes to join a coalition with either the SPÖ or ÖVP is a guessing game at this point. But in the meantime, Kurz is king of the most precious campaign capital: momentum. "When you've got momentum," said Filzmaier, "you're always present in the media. You don't need to spend a cent on ads and placards."

Here's hoping this is going to be a OVP-FPO coalition.

Poll averages:

You can see the effects of the refugee crisis in 2015 with the FPO rising to 35% and then Kurz's election to OVP leader in May this year.

[foxdemon]

Marcon is disappointing. He isn't into bubblehead status seeking behaviour like Merkel, but he is definitely pro-business. Macron had put EU intergration ahead of French military interests by cutting back on the military budget to meet EU financial goals.

If Filzmaier is similar, he will be pro business but otherwise conservative. This is actually what Australian (I said Australian, not Austrian) conservative pollies have been like all along. They didn't get into the sort of progressive facade of moralism that is so frequent in Western politics today. So Macron and Filzmaier could be seen as a move back to a more traditional conservatism that emphasises prudence and stability. Note though that this type of conservative isn't always as prudent as they could be when it comes to holding the financial elites to account. But at least you can expect a hardline on immigration.

[Rugoz]

Looks like we can expect a strong shift to the right this/next year. Large gains for the ÖVP/FPÖ in Austria, the AfD/FDP in Germany and the Lega Nord/5 star movement in Italy.

Here's hoping this is going to be a OVP-FPO coalition.

I wonder if the FPÖ will insist on "direct democracy" in the coalition talks as promised. Something tells me they will drop that demand.

Marcon is disappointing. He isn't into bubblehead status seeking behaviour like Merkel, but he is definitely pro-business. Macron had put EU intergration ahead of French military interests by cutting back on the military budget to meet EU financial goals.

If Filzmaier is similar, he will be pro business but otherwise conservative. This is actually what Australian (I said Australian, not Austrian) conservative pollies have been like all along. They didn't get into the sort of progressive facade of moralism that is so frequent in Western politics today. So Macron and Filzmaier could be seen as a move back to a more traditional conservatism that emphasises prudence and stability. Note though that this type of conservative isn't always as prudent as they could be when it comes to holding the financial elites to account. But at least you can expect a hardline on immigration.

It's Kurz, Filzmaier is a professor they asked for an opinion, you silly man.

[foxdemon]

Looks like we can expect a strong shift to the right this/next year. Large gains for the ÖVP/FPÖ in Austria, the AfD/FDP in Germany and the Lega Nord/5 star movement in Italy.



I wonder if the FPÖ will insist on "direct democracy" in the coalition talks as promised. Something tells me they will drop that demand.



It's Kurz, Filzmaier is a professor they asked for an opinion, you silly man.

Ops! My appoligies to the gentlemen concerned.

I can't say that a move to the right is surprising. The immigration crisis isn't doing much for the popularity of the current governments. But I can't see Western Europe really being able to come up with a coherent response.

Take this institution for example:

https://gcm.unu.edu

It seems there are many in Europe who support mass immigration of ideological reasons. So there will be a clash between polarised groups as we are seeing in the USA.

The future looks grim for the West.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Looks like we can expect a strong shift to the right this/next year. Large gains for the ÖVP/FPÖ in Austria, the AfD/FDP in Germany and the Lega Nord/5 star movement in Italy.

I wonder if the FPÖ will insist on "direct democracy" in the coalition talks as promised. Something tells me they will drop that demand.

Hofer recently called it a pre-requisite of coalition negotiations, but also said that "it will be difficult", so yeah this is one of the issues that seems to fall victim to compromise far more often than others. For the FPO to push it through it would probably have to be the largest party and it looks like Kurz has prevented that almost single-handedly.

If the AfD can get 10% I'd call that a real achievement and hopefully a first stepping stone for a credible and growing right-wing movement in Germany. I haven't followed them closely, but it looks like they have some personnel issues to sort out, although that's maybe not unusual for a relatively young party.

Apart from Italy, there's also Denmark which has already shifted quite a bit to the right and if I remember correctly Norway too.

I can't say that a move to the right is surprising. The immigration crisis isn't doing much for the popularity of the current governments. But I can't see Western Europe really being able to come up with a coherent response.

Take this institution for example:

https://gcm.unu.edu

It seems there are many in Europe who support mass immigration of ideological reasons. So there will be a clash between polarised groups as we are seeing in the USA.

The future looks grim for the West.

To me it looks like America is actually catching up to Europe with respect to populism. In Europe, the modus operandi is to demonise populists and exclude them from government at all cost which used to be relatively successful, but we may be reaching a threshold where this no longer works, not least because too many people have been moved to the political fringe by the mainstream political landscape moving to the left.

However, I do get the impression that the open border movement is stronger and the potential for division is greater in the US. For one, there has been a deliberate attempt, which is still ongoing, to rewrite US history as a country that has been built by immigrants (as opposed to citizens and/or settlers) and furthermore that the diversity in terms of cultural and ethnic background of these immigrants has been responsible for its success. This has now been extended to illegal immigrants which I've recently seen being called "undocumented citizens". Additionally, the US has a far larger number of minorities, a substantial proportion of which belongs to what can be described as a socio-economic underclass. In the south it's in the process of becoming bilingual and turning red and swing states permanently blue through demographic change. There seems to be far more to exploit in the US along ethnic and other lines.

As for Europe, it's too early to tell whether this is a fluke or the beginning of a re-balancing to the right (or what I would call a return to normality). In Austria, while it is a bit disheartening that a change in leadership can bring about such a large swing in the polls - and I realise that this is not unique - Kurz is quite a good ambassador for the respectability of right wing views and probably also appeals to the young, so it could be much worse.

[Decky]

To me it looks like America is actually catching up to Europe with respect to populism. In Europe, the modus operandi is to demonise populists and exclude them from government at all cost which used to be relatively successful, but we may be reaching a threshold where this no longer works, not least because too many people have been moved to the political fringe by the mainstream political landscape moving to the left.

Yes, European politics has really moved to the left since 1991. Definetly not a shift to the right with mass privtisations and left wing parties becoming bassically powerless. I come from a country that has not had a left wing government since 1979 and yet people still spout this nonsense. Right wingers live in a bizzare fantasy world.

[fokker]

:lol:

Yes, European politics has really moved to the left since 1991. Definetly not a shift to the right with mass privtisations and left wing parties becoming bassically powerless. I come from a country that has not had a left wing government since 1979 and yet people still spout this nonsense. Right wingers live in a bizzare fantasy world.

I would say your election system is to blame. It was built in another time when stability was very important but there is no impetus for much change or variety. The old left is dead in the UK. I doubt Corbyn will change much. You can never go back. US is a bigger boat and suffers even more from this inflexibility. Austrian politics/culture seem to be quite healthy in comparison to Germany, which seems to be on the road to self destruction. Its interesting how different 2 German speaking countries next to each other can be. It seems size will be a survival disadvantage this time.

[foxdemon]

Here's an interesting article by a notable Australian bureaucrat on the subject of just how naughty Austrians really are.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/austrian-threat-eu-unity/

One article (Austrian author) Mike provides a link to I found quite astonishing.

http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR225_-_FELLOW_TRAVELLERS.pdf

Apparently you aren't Western if you don't support the EU, NATO, global capital, mass immigration and such like. I find the notion of 'Western' used in the article rather arrogant. The contemporary liberal establishment consensus is hardly the entirety of Western culture. Nor is it even the entirety of Western modernity. Nor is it the entirety of the enlightenment, humanism or even liberalism. There is a remarkably pompous streak to the Western establishment.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I would say your election system is to blame. It was built in another time when stability was very important but there is no impetus for much change or variety. The old left is dead in the UK. I doubt Corbyn will change much. You can never go back. US is a bigger boat and suffers even more from this inflexibility. Austrian politics/culture seem to be quite healthy in comparison to Germany, which seems to be on the road to self destruction. Its interesting how different 2 German speaking countries next to each other can be. It seems size will be a survival disadvantage this time.

Austria has never signed up to the war guilt to the extent Germany has. I think there is a similar phenomenon in England and Scotland, although the two are obviously not separate countries, with respect to colonialism. Austria and Scotland basically pretend that they have just been dragged along by the larger, more powerful countries. Of course, the amount of navel-gazing and self-flagellation in Germany - and England isn't actually so far behind - is unprecedented and as far as I can tell non-western countries are in no rush to scrutinise their own history in the same way and view everything through a lense of injustice and oppression they have inflicted on others.

[Politiks]

Austria has never signed up to the war guilt to the extent Germany has. I think there is a similar phenomenon in England and Scotland, although the two are obviously not separate countries, with respect to colonialism. Austria and Scotland basically pretend that they have just been dragged along by the larger, more powerful countries. Of course, the amount of navel-gazing and self-flagellation in Germany - and England isn't actually so far behind - is unprecedented and as far as I can tell non-western countries are in no rush to scrutinise their own history in the same way and view everything through a lense of injustice and oppression they have inflicted on others.

So true what you wrote. Not really about what you wrote but not as off topic, the other day I had a discussion with a African American woman regarding Egypt and BLM. She was talking about slavery and forced incarceration was "the reason why African Americans were poor or in jail"She was in favor of torn down every "white monument" in USA. I told was fair to torn down monuments USA if we could implode those Pyramids in Egypt Black people are so proud off. Or do Blacks think those Pyramids were build by payed workers? Slave build that. If is to torn down history, let's do it, but do it all otherwise leave the Euros alone. Of course she thought "was different case in Egypt" . So, they only want to turn Europe into a "multicultural" society, while the hell holes they came from should remain the same. The same way that slavery monuments that aren't build by whites should remain sacred, even if they are a fruit of slavery.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

So true what you wrote. Not really about what you wrote but not as off topic, the other day I had a discussion with a African American woman regarding Egypt and BLM. She was talking about slavery and forced incarceration was "the reason why African Americans were poor or in jail"She was in favor of torn down every "white monument" in USA. I told was fair to torn down monuments USA if we could implode those Pyramids in Egypt Black people are so proud off. Or do Blacks think those Pyramids were build by payed workers? Slave build that. If is to torn down history, let's do it, but do it all otherwise leave the Euros alone. Of course she thought "was different case in Egypt" . So, they only want to turn Europe into a "multicultural" society, while the hell holes they came from should remain the same. The same way that slavery monuments that aren't build by whites should remain sacred, even if they are a fruit of slavery.

Yes, the US can also be included, with the main issue obviously being slavery, and it seems to be catching up fast. The double standards are ubiquitous, e.g. when we talk about the slave trade we usually mean the European slave trade and neglect the Arab slave trade. Maybe unbeknownst to us there is a similarly self-critical movement in North African and Middle Eastern countries but somehow I doubt it.

Throughout history there have always been plenty of events that provided justifications for different people to resent or outright hate each other, but what we do today is provide others with additional justifications to resent us on top of what they would come up with themselves. In a European context where the majority of non-European immigrants comes from countries that have been at one time or another colonised or occupied, not only do we agree that they have cause for grievances for past events, we also tell them that they are discriminated against in their new homes. The primary identity we are pushing on them is that of an oppressed person who is prevented from succeeding here, thereby fueling more resentment. Totally self-defeating and another reason why immigration from those countries ought to be reduced or stopped.

[Politiks]

Yes, the US can also be included, with the main issue obviously being slavery, and it seems to be catching up fast. The double standards are ubiquitous, e.g. when we talk about the slave trade we usually mean the European slave trade and neglect the Arab slave trade. Maybe unbeknownst to us there is a similarly self-critical movement in North African and Middle Eastern countries but somehow I doubt it.

Throughout history there have always been plenty of events that provided justifications for different people to resent or outright hate each other, but what we do today is provide others with additional justifications to resent us on top of what they would come up with themselves. In a European context where the majority of non-European immigrants comes from countries that have been at one time or another colonised or occupied, not only do we agree that they have cause for grievances for past events, we also tell them that they are discriminated against in their new homes. The primary identity we are pushing on them is that of an oppressed person who is prevented from succeeding here, thereby fueling more resentment. Totally self-defeating and another reason why immigration from those countries ought to be reduced or stopped.

Completely agree. I would say even more. There's a series of events happening simultaneously to help fill Europe with a certain type of "refugees" and "immigrants" . Selected areas have been receiving thousands of a specific type of immigration. Such areas are either economically relevant, strategically relevant or historically relevant.

When we discuss slavery everything you mentioned isn't brought to light. One thing you forgot to mention is Africans sold the slaves, they were 50% of the slave trade.

Is mathematically, geographically impossible for England-Portugal-France-Spain conquer West Africa. Africans sold their own and no one seems interested in making them acknowledge that. In fact they sell slaves until today. 2 months ago 2 slave ports were found in Mali (again!) selling women, girls and young men.

[Buzz62]

Completely agree. I would say even more. There's a series of events happening simultaneously to help fill Europe with a certain type of "refugees" and "immigrants" . Selected areas have been receiving thousands of a specific type of immigration. Such areas are either economically relevant, strategically relevant or historically relevant.

When we discuss slavery everything you mentioned isn't brought to light. One thing you forgot to mention is Africans sold the slaves, they were 50% of the slave trade.

Is mathematically, geographically impossible for England-Portugal-France-Spain conquer West Africa. Africans sold their own and no one seems interested in making them acknowledge that. In fact they sell slaves until today. 2 months ago 2 slave ports were found in Mali (again!) selling women, girls and young men.

The "Politically Correct" crowd, have introduced a rot that is eroding societies all over the world. What you say about the slave trade is very true. But don't say it out loud, or Antifa and BLM will pee their pants and probably attack you physically.
The word "Negro" means BLACK. There is nothing "racist" about that. Those who claim there is, are either uneducated simpletons, or have an ulterior agenda. Namely, the easing of their own guilt over their great grand pappies having BOUGHT black people as property, from black people. So while possession of stolen property is a crime, it is a lesser crime than the theft of and sale of said property. Thus, in essence, and in REALITY, it is the black people who "stole" these black peoples' lives and sold them like dogs, who "should" be persecuted, since they are the "thieves" in this tragic act.
Having cleared that up, I hope this young man's new ÖVP win a resounding victory. It way past time for the evil white guy, to stick up for himself and his heritage.

[fokker]

It seems the Austrian election campaign is quite dirty, it was revelaed SPO ran fake facebook accounts of Sebastian Kurz in attempt to spread negative propaganda. They even had an Israeli specialist hired for this. It continued after cooperation with the Israeli specialist ended, and was carried out by some high ranking member of SPO campaign team. Christian Kern must have been aware of this, probably had it initiated or at least approved. It is a good reason to demand his resignation as party leader.

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/ ... den-weiter

[Kaiserschmarrn]

^ One high ranking party member already had to step down over this. The one of the campaign team is currently in hospital and hence not available for comment, but he has been suspended after the article by Die Presse was published. I agree it's unlikely that the leadership wasn't aware of this, but as of now it's all about plausible deniability. If the SPOE does as badly as the polls predict, Kern will be history anyway.

I take it as evidence that the left is panicking in Austria.

[Decky]

It seems the Austrian election campaign is quite dirty, it was revelaed SPO ran fake facebook accounts of Sebastian Kurz in attempt to spread negative propaganda. They even had an Israeli specialist hired for this.

Yet another election in a nominaly democratic nation run in the interests of Tev Aviv by a Mossad opperative. No leader in any first world nation in enthroned without their blessing. Democracy is a myth. Some people say Trump won with millions fewer votes because of the (((electoral college))) but I know what I belive.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Latest 3 polls from here:


This could be the worst ever election result for the SPOE.

Something else that happened last year was Vienna turning blue. These polls are about regional elections and Vienna's had an SPOE mayor since the second world war.


Interesting times.

[foxdemon]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/866799/Austrian-election-results-Antonio-Tajani-eu-latest-news-Sebastian-Kurz

EU leader mocked for praising Kurtz win. “How’s that EU solidarity coming along?”

[foxdemon]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/14/c_136679528.htm

Here’s a Chinese English language news article on the Austrian elections. Note the different emphasise from a Western source. The immigration issue is down played and the people’s desire for responsible government is presented to explain the election.

The Chinese government couldn’t give a rat’s arse about issues that upset the Western opinion formers. A more independent Austria adds to other independant minded neighbouring areas which China can do deals without having to first go through France and Germany. Neither Macron nor Merkel is likely to be happy about this.

[foxdemon]

http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/what-austrias-election-says-about-europes-political-landscape

And the view from Singapore. In SG, people love to state the obvious.

I will leave it to others to post Russia’s reaction. But one can imagine there will be celebrations going on in Moscow.

With the AfD having an influence in Berlin and now the right under Kurtz gaining Austria, what will happen to the liberal consensus in Brussels?

I am interested in the Europhile EU lovers opinion on the election result. Yet it is strangely quite.