[noir]

The Germans are renewing their militarism after years of pacifist facade; destabilizing the world by utilizing "human rights" grievinces agitprop on one hand and selling arms to all sort of conflicts (mainly Iran) on the other hand, were not enough.

[foxdemon]

@B0ycey

The Russians can’t quite do so. But they are getting there. Interestingly, the Ruskies are going back to divisional level formations. Their state of readiness is high in some units but there aren’t yet enough to pull off an attack on Europe. However, if Europe fails to get their acts together and the Americans leave, then the Russian military might be strong enough in a few years.

Maybe the Polish guy was right, Europe needs steel tanks, not think tanks.

http://blog.vantagepointnorth.net/2018/02/two-new-divisions-for-russian-army.html

Two new divisions for the Russian army
February 16, 2018

Latest news is that Russia will expand both of the remaining motorized rifle brigades of the 58th Combined Arms Army into full strength divisions. This would mean that the army would have three full divisions of mechanized forces with heavy artillery and missile support. At the same time when the brigades are being upgraded, “Other units of the 58th Army” will be moved from their traditional posts in the Northern Caucasus further into west.


T-90S tanks (Photo: Some Russian propaganda outlet)

There is no schedule for the transition, but as Chechnya is relatively calm under the iron grip of Kremlins pet attack dog Kadyrov, the already full strength 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, that was expanded in 2016, could begin its relocation at a moments notice.

Not that long ago the Russian armed forces transited largely to a brigade structure, very similar to that of the western armies. Next iteration of this concept were the Battalion Tactical Groups that are agile independent units, with integral indirect fire components and high operational flexibility.

Russia has been operating with a limited Battalion Tactical Group concept in Syria and by all accounts the force there has been an effective one on the few occasions it has engaged in a proper combat. On the other hand the experiences from Ukraine have shown, that even a brigade sized formations can be crippled in a short amount of time. A brigade is also unable to foray deep into the enemy territory as, it lacks the necessary infantry forces to hold a prolonged line of contact against an enemy that is capable of both maneuvering and using indirect fire.

For the last two years, Russia has been re-establishing division sized motorized rifle formations to all of it’s military districts. Some of them have been expansions of existing brigades, some are entirely new formations like the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, that is aimed rather directly against Ukraine.

The Russian army has spent considerable amount of resources in to the modernization of its command and communications systems. A new digital broadband communications network has been tested in military district wide exercises and even the backwater district in the far east is now being upgraded with the latest communications gear. This C3I reform would be a perfect match with the flexible battalion tactical groups.


Russian mechanized unit on live fire drills during the Zapad17 (Photo: Mordo... Kremlin)

A force with a shared information space and small maneuverable units, that can join into larger ad-hoc formations would be extremely efficient in most defensive scenarios and low intensity conflicts Russia could reasonably be forced into. The new systems allow reconnaissance units to relay targeting information to the massive indirect forces the Russian formations have in real time.

Why is Russia seemingly abandoning this concept after a brief experimentation? Either some parts of the army have been unable to adapt into this tactical concept. Perhaps the training of the junior officers is not at par with the increased responsibility a decentralized force forces them to take. Maybe the heavy logistics train that feeds the hungry diesel engines of the armored vehicles isn’t capable of coping with such a complex supply pipeline.

The other option is that Russia is gearing its military for a big and offensive fight, where the smaller formations would be decimated before reaching their objectives. It's possible that the Battalion Tactical Groups will remain inside the divisions and the old regimental structure will only serve as administrative units and when the division is out in the fields the more flexible organization takes over.

Despite all the technological and tactical advances there is still strength in numbers.

Edit : added the cool photos.

[B0ycey]

@foxdemon, The US can't even fully control all of Afghanistan, so how could Russia, regardless of its military spending, control all of Europe? It is too large to control. The UK is a small Island in comparison. In principle Russia could be a threat to just the UK perhaps. But even then, I don't think they have to population to control it. That is unless they take up the nuclear option. But then you have NATO. So basically Russia won't do anything to Europe unless they interfer with them. Maybe flex their muscles without going too far perhaps, but that is it. Germany has been wise to save their money and promote their economy. But today things are changing. Their allies are becoming less reliable. So you promote an EU army. You fund an EU and you break ties with you reliance of your allies. That is just common sense.

[foxdemon]

@B0ycey Huh? What? Storm clouds are gathering and you suggest breaking ties with your allies? I can tell strategy is not something you have studied.

[B0ycey]

@B0ycey Huh? What? Storm clouds are gathering and you suggest breaking ties with your allies? I can tell strategy is not something you have studied.

I didn't suggest breaking ties with allies now at all. That's mad. But if your allies are seemingly doing 'their own thing' against your interests and you cannot rely on them as you once did, you need to look at plan B. NATO will exist until it is not needed. And then it will dismantle. But no one is ever going to say that until it isn't needed. That is suicide!

[foxdemon]

I didn't suggest breaking ties with allies now at all. That's mad. But if your allies are seemingly doing 'their own thing' against your interests and you cannot rely on them as you once did, you need to look at plan B. NATO will exist until it is not needed. And then it will dismantle. But no one is ever going to say that until it isn't needed. That is suicide!

I agree. American strategy hasn’t been particularly inspired in the last 15 years but it really isn’t the right time for Europe to break ties with them.

Here’s another interesting article for the same blog. Surely the Russians wouldn’t be so audacitious?

http://blog.vantagepointnorth.net/2017/09/russia-practices-for-iceland-invasion.html

Russia practices for an Iceland invasion
September 23, 2017


a MTLB landing from the landing ship Severomorsk to Kotelny

The Russian Northern Fleet has been very active lately, in addition to the usual landing drills close to the fleets home ports in the Kola peninsula, the fleet has been roaming the Russian northern coast with a landing squadron that carries a mix of marines and Arctic brigade specialists from the Alakurtti military base.

This unit has now made a landing drill at the remote island of Kotelny that sits between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea. The squadrons last supply point, where the crews and troops were allowed to rest and refit was in Dudinka. The distance from Dudinka to Kotelny is roughly 2000 km. This distance corresponds closely to the distance between the fleets home base in Kola and Iceland. The geography and the size of the islands are also very similar.


From Dudinka to the Kotelny

It is very important to test these kind of long distance naval operations in advance as the troops and the vehicles on board, must remain combat worthy all the way to the target. And the seas up north can be extremely demanding.

Iceland is one of the few nations in the world without an army. Iceland only has an approximately 200 men strong coast guard and a 230 men strong force for peacekeeping purposes. Due to the extremely strategic location of the island nation, USA has been guaranteeing its freedom and Iceland is a NATO member. Other NATO members and even some neutral countries like Finland have lent aircraft's and personnel to help police the Icelandic airspace.


OPV Thor, the biggest vessel of the Iceland Coast Guard

Without an effective navy Iceland isn’t equipped to stop a Russian landing force and without an army it has no change to repel an amphibious landing by the Russian marines. A dug in Marine brigade with support from the Arctic brigade and it’s modern anti-aircraft missile units a Russian foothold in the island would be a real challenge to the NATO forces available.


As we can see the Cold War hot-spots haven’t all vanished. The GIUK gap from Greenland via Iceland to United Kingdom is still included in the Russian military training curriculum. NATO has also been sending more and more vessels and aircraft to patrol the northern waters.

[Drlee]

Russia will do nothing major against Western Europe until it has a navy capable of withstanding that of the US. It does not and will not. Any attempt to move on the EU would result in a Russian blockaid that would cripple its economy.

[foxdemon]

Russia will do nothing major against Western Europe until it has a navy capable of withstanding that of the US. It does not and will not. Any attempt to move on the EU would result in a Russian blockaid that would cripple its economy.

Well, there is the Chinese navy.

Surely the main thing stopping Putin is that there isn’t a good reason. Why destroy one’s market? China is looking at Europe as a market too. Invasions only happen when there is a reason. If the Europeans didn’t buy Russian energy and also tried to reduce Russian influence, then there would be a reason.

Anyway, back to the eastern front. Poland has one armoured division and two mech divisions. Also there is a US heavy armour brigade in Poland. That’s all that stands between Belarus and the Rhine, since the Bundeswehr would struggle to mobilise any significant force. One of those Polish mech divisions is deployed against Karlingard and the coast. And it seems to have Soviet era equipment. Not sure how much help it would be.

The Eussians have state of the art doctrine. They intend to control the electromagnetic spectrum, use remote surveillance and massed artillary. He who controls the EM spectrum can use his remote sensors and employ his artillary, and coordinate his force while denying his opponent from doing the same. It is like a modern version of blitzkrieg, paralysising the opponent while applying overwhelming force at the right time and place. Russian artillary has demonstrated the ability to cripple entire battalions in less than and hour in the Ukrain. To make matters worse, they have not just integrated air defence, but very dense and advanced air defence. It isn’t clear NATO can freely use air power to redress the balance.

The Polish armour forces might not be up to date enough to cope. Furthermore, they have recently replaced much of their higher officer corps for political reasons. How effective will they be in battle? The US armour hasn’t yet got the APS for the Abrams. Though the US is trying to bring in comparable EW support to what the Russians have. But they are still playing catch up.

So the Russian mech divisions could plow through Poland in my judgement. Clearly this is a risky situation. Germany really ought to increase their defence spending so they can mobilise the Bundeswehr to reinforce NATO forces in Poland if necessary. Or at least be able to resist on their own territory.

Vegetarians indeed!

[JohnRawls]

Well, there is the Chinese navy.

Surely the main thing stopping Putin is that there isn’t a good reason. Why destroy one’s market? China is looking at Europe as a market too. Invasions only happen when there is a reason. If the Europeans didn’t buy Russian energy and also tried to reduce Russian influence, then there would be a reason.

Anyway, back to the eastern front. Poland has one armoured division and two mech divisions. Also there is a US heavy armour brigade in Poland. That’s all that stands between Belarus and the Rhine, since the Bundeswehr would struggle to mobilise any significant force. One of those Polish mech divisions is deployed against Karlingard and the coast. And it seems to have Soviet era equipment. Not sure how much help it would be.

The Eussians have state of the art doctrine. They intend to control the electromagnetic spectrum, use remote surveillance and massed artillary. He who controls the EM spectrum can use his remote sensors and employ his artillary, and coordinate his force while denying his opponent from doing the same. It is like a modern version of blitzkrieg, paralysising the opponent while applying overwhelming force at the right time and place. Russian artillary has demonstrated the ability to cripple entire battalions in less than and hour in the Ukrain. To make matters worse, they have not just integrated air defence, but very dense and advanced air defence. It isn’t clear NATO can freely use air power to redress the balance.

The Polish armour forces might not be up to date enough to cope. Furthermore, they have recently replaced much of their higher officer corps for political reasons. How effective will they be in battle? The US armour hasn’t yet got the APS for the Abrams. Though the US is trying to bring in comparable EW support to what the Russians have. But they are still playing catch up.

So the Russian mech divisions could plow through Poland in my judgement. Clearly this is a risky situation. Germany really ought to increase their defence spending so they can mobilise the Bundeswehr to reinforce NATO forces in Poland if necessary. Or at least be able to resist on their own territory.

Vegetarians indeed!

This is actually true in a sense. But the Russians do not really have the resources to hold the territory even if they manage to penerate deep in to EU by a "blitzkrieg" like tactic. War of resources is also not something that they can handle. On top of that, this will cripple their economy. So there is literally 0 chance that they will start anything against the EU or Nato. Also Nukes.

As for the modernisation and tactics. Yes, the Russian have invested a significant ammount of resources and time in to modernising the army. Their doctrine is currently second to none. I do not know how to explain this but their doctrine is Integrated while our doctrines are fractured. We have different doctrines for different types of our armed forces. Russia on the other hand managed to create a unified doctrine for all the branches which has some innovative aspects in political, cyber and EM aspects. They not only managed to expand the scope of the doctrine but also intergrate it in to one.

[Drlee]

I agree with JohnRawls' assessment.

Well, there is the Chinese navy.

Well this is another kettle of fish altogether. What happens if China and Russia ally against the US?

It seems to me that, at least for a time, China needs the US more than it needs Russia. Russia is an insignificant market. Indeed if Russia did not possess considerable nuclear capability, we would not be having this discussion at all.

Both Russia and the US share one common trait. We are both laboring under our previous reputations. The USSR was very powerful on the ground and more than capable of threatening Europe. The US was formerly much more able to move unilaterally around the world. Neither are true today.

If China is going to move at all I do not see them allying with Russia. A more likely scenario would be for them to make some demonstration in the South China Sea. Russia my opportunistically do something at the same time but it would be very dangerous for them. China might also provoke a proxy war between the DPRK and the US. This might allow them to step in as the peacemakers. The US could not challenge the Peoples Army on the ground in North Korea with much chance of success.

[Heisenberg]

Russia is not going to invade Iceland any more than the NATO troops holding war games in Latvia are preparing to invade Russia.

I do wish people would be a bit less hysterical about the Russian "menace".

[Albert]

I personally hope Europe, Russia and USA can be all allied one day. Perhaps Russia can finally enter NATO.

With this said, this can happen if USA recognized Russian influence in some of it former Soviet Republics and perhaps accepts that some day unification between Russia and Ukraine, plus Belarus is a very good possibility. This unification perhaps will come even through military means. With this concession I believe Russia can even accept US leadership in the alliance.

As of current Russian Federation needs to concentrate on its economy and societal well being, military should come second and expanded only for defensive means. In meantime the primary objective should be modernizing its economy and academia to foster scientific research. With this Russia can become a competent competitor on world markets and establish itself on the forefront of scientific and technological advancements. I believe all the potential is there for Russia, yet of current it is failed to be realized, thanks to Mr. Putin and his bandits that sit in Kremlin.

As for EU's plan to go its own way from NATO, I welcome that. This will finally give Europe it self determination after it had lost it since WWII. Although I do not know if I would want it to be led by Germany, as historically we all know where that leads up to. And in this way Germany did not only gets its unification but also the fourth Reich without a shot.

[noir]

I personally hope Europe, Russia and USA can be all allied one day. Perhaps Russia can finally enter NATO.

Allied with whom? Lately, we witness how a Russian mouthpiece, RT TV, is the only international outlet that covers critically and boldy the colonization of Europe, while the West is too bewildered to be called "racist" and "far right". There is a base for alliagnce, but before that Europe needs to decide what are her true interests. Russia sees its concern as pan European true interest, but many European elites are happy with the process. They don't see in keeping their identity as a base for shared interest.

[Albert]

It is more complex then that. The Russian elite criticizes immigration policies of EU and USA, but yet themselves import migrants from central Asia and former Soviet Republics who are not ethnic Russians and are outside of European civilization historically. RT is basically pushes propaganda with aim to destabilize social cohesion in the west, further then already the migration in itself has done. Basically their exploiting weakness in the western liberal societies.

Granted though, the Russian elite are not ideologically zealous like a lot of their western progressive liberal counterparts are. Their reasons for flooding Russian land with migrants are primary done for cheap labour and to some regard to preserve Russian Federation integrity and prestige, with ethnic groups within Russia and with former Soviet Republics. Basically in order to keep its sphere of influence it allows migrant of different ethnic groups to migrate in order to keep those nations economically tied to Russia.

The irony of all this, the current Russian elite and that of the west do not differ in principle all that much. I'm personally, best described as a nationalist hence I do not even like the current Russian government in this regard, and for numerous other reasons.

The whole European civilization is in disarray at this point. Therefore all of Europe needs to have a change, Russia including. The anti-liberal wave in Europe at some point will reach Russia as well, hopefully. As of now, Russia in many sense is a liberal country just like western countries are, just very conservative.

[noir]

@Albert

Granted though, the Russian elite are not ideologically zealous like a lot of their western progressive liberal counterparts are. Their reasons for flooding Russian land with migrants are primary done for cheap labour and to some regard to preserve Russian Federation integrity and prestige, with ethnic groups within Russia and with former Soviet Republics. Basically in order to keep its sphere of influence it allows migrant of different ethnic groups to migrate in order to keep those nations economically tied to Russia.

Can't decide if it's the same thing. It seems the Russification of the Asian provinces since the Tsars empire and later during the Soviet Union were much better and propound than the European Powers did in MENA or with the Muslims in South Asia.

The Russian elite criticizes immigration policies of EU and USA, but yet themselves import migrants from central Asia and former Soviet Republics who are not ethnic Russians and are outside of European civilization historically

Russia, beside the Chechens, has no such problem. The Soviet Central Asians were cruial element in the Great Patriotic War.

Take this example

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdulkhakim_Ismailov

Abdulkhakim Ismailov (1 July 1916 – 17 February 2010) was a Soviet soldier within the Soviet Union's Red Army during World War II. He was photographed by Yevgeny Khaldei raising the flag of the Soviet Union over the Reichstag in Berlin on 2 May 1945, days before Nazi Germany's surrender.

Abdulkhakim Ismailov, a native of Dagestan, was severely wounded five times during World War II, including the Battle of Stalingrad, but constantly got back to the frontline.

In Western Europe many of the new comers are all but fifth column. There is absolute certainty they will explode the balance of power of Europe and the world in the near future.

Take Anjem Choudhry, a British Islamist activist of of Pakistani descent, convicted of terrorism. On the BBC, he was asked why he didn't simply move to a state that already has sharia. "Who says you own Britain, anyway?" he replied. "Britain belongs to Allah. The whole world belongs to Allah." Warming to his theme, he added, "If, I go to the jungle, I'm not going to live like the animals, I'm going to propagate a superior way of life. Islam is a superior way of life."

Do you have thesame arrogance with your Asian provinces?

Not an expert on Russia, @Potemkin, what do you think? How well was the Soviet empire compare to guilt ridden Western imperialism? Did they succeed better in bringing civilization to their territories?

[Patrickov]

It is more complex then that. The Russian elite criticizes immigration policies of EU and USA, but yet themselves import migrants from central Asia and former Soviet Republics who are not ethnic Russians and are outside of European civilization historically. RT is basically pushes propaganda with aim to destabilize social cohesion in the west, further then already the migration in itself has done. Basically their exploiting weakness in the western liberal societies.

Granted though, the Russian elite are not ideologically zealous like a lot of their western progressive liberal counterparts are. Their reasons for flooding Russian land with migrants are primary done for cheap labour and to some regard to preserve Russian Federation integrity and prestige, with ethnic groups within Russia and with former Soviet Republics. Basically in order to keep its sphere of influence it allows migrant of different ethnic groups to migrate in order to keep those nations economically tied to Russia.

The irony of all this, the current Russian elite and that of the west do not differ in principle all that much. I'm personally, best described as a nationalist hence I do not even like the current Russian government in this regard, and for numerous other reasons.

The whole European civilization is in disarray at this point. Therefore all of Europe needs to have a change, Russia including. The anti-liberal wave in Europe at some point will reach Russia as well, hopefully. As of now, Russia in many sense is a liberal country just like western countries are, just very conservative.

Don't forget that Russia is superior in population than its Central Asia counterparts (2.5 to 1, and the 1 is the sum of all four Central Asian countries). Try having some Chinese (9.5 to 1 superior to Russia) there and you will find their reaction very different.

[Albert]

@noir

You make a lot of good points and that are very true. It is true that many of ethnicities of former soviet republics have come to take on a lot of Russian culture and outlook(, mostly because of policies that had been implemented in the past, some of them were forceful and harsh). One example I can think of are Kazakhs for example. I have met number of them and were surprised how much they resemble Russians. Yet these were just few encounters and I have never formed close relations. Another people that are closely relatable are Georgians and Armenians. A lot of ethnicities also contributed a lot to Russia historically, Stalin comes to mind right away for example. The current Russian foreign minister is Armenian. And so on.

The Caucasus are a problem predominantly now because of Islam and Islamic militarism that Saudis are inspiring all over the world. This is where most ethnic strive is ignited in the Caucasus I believe. It has come to a point that now even Tatars are beginning to reignite Islamic separate tendencies. Sometime fueled by the US and Nato as it can be seen in Crimea.

I disagree how the current Russian government is handling the ethnic issue though. What they are trying to achieve is done with good intentions, primary to preserve Russian Federation and continue to have political influence in former soviet republics. But it is done in expense of Russian people and at times with negative effects for Russian nation. There needs to be a balance and at the same time their policies are short sighted just like they are in the west.

To answer your question about arrogance. Primary issue with migrant in Russia is with Muslim migrants from Caucasus. There are many factors for this. One because of cultural differences that also heavily relate to Islam. Second one is because political and historical differences. Chechens for example when they come to Russian cities, they have enmity to Russian people but attracted to migrate there for monetary gain or education and so on. Yet do to recent war Russian dislike them also and they Russians. Hence ethnic tensions arise because such differences on top of already cultural differences that existed prior. This happens especially with youth.

There is also problems with criminals going to Russia, that could be to escape justice at their homeland or to engage or expand their criminal activity there. This happens a lot with Chechens as well, as the country has been ravaged by war and their government is basically run by warlords. So they come from a very different world and sometimes who arrive to Russia have sever social and person problems because of the difficult circumstance their homeland is. On top of that Russia itself is not without its social problems.

This is where the government fails to address such issue. Easy solution would be to restrict travel for people in Caucuses for example, until enmity and bad memories of war fade. Also trying to reinstate direct Russia governance in the Caucuses. Instead Putin has chosen appeasement policy toward the Caucuses and other ethnic groups in Russia.

It is in a way a western approach and way that can be categorized as a post-colonialism. It will work short term but it is a lose situation long term especially for Russian people. And it is damaging along the way.

Don't forget that Russia is superior in population than its Central Asia counterparts (2.5 to 1, and the 1 is the sum of all four Central Asian countries). Try having some Chinese (9.5 to 1 superior to Russia) there and you will find their reaction very different.

The trouble with Russian population as it is with most other European ones is that it is not growing. In many ethnic Russian regions it is declining. The government is trying to reverse this with much more effort as in the west, but it is not enough. In long term Russian population is projected to stay stagnant at best while other ethnic groups within Russian and former soviet republic is projected to grow.

There needs to be serious government efforts to increase the population, and this is where Russia needs to bring back the tradition family that allows for rearing of children. The problem with Russian population is much similar to that of what is happening in the rest of Europe.

[annatar1914]

Every passing day proves that I was right to support Trump and Brexit. It has been the wake-up call Europe needed.

The protection racket run by the US has outlived its usefulness. Today, it is the primary cause for instability and terror in the world. US expansionism is responsible for the conflicts in Europe's Eastern and the Southern neighborhoods. As the US keeps on increasing its defense budget, instability increases. Most conflicts cannot be solved by military means and the nuclear arsenals are perfectly useless in most conflicts. Yet the US is reducing its non-military aid and diplomatic corps.

A multi-ethnic EU is best placed to solve problems by soft power, and by coordinating its defense activities, Europe has more than enough economic means to match Russia by conventional means. Europe will also benefit by investing more in aerospace and defense R&D in which the US has an unfair advantage.

The US/UK want Europe to spend more on defense, yet they don't want Europe to have any control. They also want to keep Europe from developing its own technology so that their arms industries can continue to dominate global markets.

A free hand to go back to Fascism, is what this is. Well, looks like we'll be fighting Fascists again, probably by 2045, within 100 years of the end of the Great Patriotic War.

[noir]

A free hand to go back to Fascism, is what this is. Well, looks like we'll be fighting Fascists again, probably by 2045, within 100 years of the end of the Great Patriotic War.

The big question is if Europe will fight Fascism in its midst (which is inevitable giving the political inclination of the newcomers) or turned to be fascist itself and the rest of the world will fight them. Today we are witnessing some pockets of resistance (dismissed as "racists", "fascists" and far worse) but contemporary European history shows it doesn't prove anything, even the AfD and ilk can join the strong horse as were happened in the past. Many communists joined the NSDAP etc.

Geman elite is playing a strange game.

[annatar1914]

The big question is if Europe will fight Fascism in its midst (which is inevitable giving the political inclination of the newcomers) or turned to be fascist itself and the rest of the world will fight them. Today we are witnessing some pockets of resistance (dismissed as "racists", "fascists" and far worse) but contemporary European history shows it doesn't prove anything, even the AfD and ilk can join the strong horse as were happened in the past. Many communists joined the NSDAP etc.

Geman elite is playing a strange game.

''Strange Game'', indeed, but looking like classic post-Great Patriotic War ''Crisis, Reaction, Solution'' or ''Strategy of Tension'' worked out by groups like P-2 and the GLADIO Network. Just as in the 1920's and 1930's, when the Capitalist crisis gets too severe, war and fascism will be the answer of the Elites to protect their wealth.