[Atlantis]

“The president makes it very clear in his interview that conditions for accessing the single market are strict and non-negotiable,” - He definitely means to be very clear on the consequences.

The Guardian refers to this interview:

Macron: 'Special' deal possible for UK, but it can't 'cherry-pick' rules

In which it is made very clear that GB "can't have its cake and eat it," contrary to what Boris keeps on claiming.

Since the referendum, the Brits have been in an impossible situation. They try to square the circle by creating verbal expressions which can mean everything or nothing. The fact, however, remains that the Brits will have to accept regulatory alignment, FoM, budget contributions, etc., if they want a close trade relationship. Without that, services will be off the table, which will tank the UK economy.

Even though they still pretend that they'll get equivalent market access to single market membership, which is impossible, the UK economy has already dropped from the top to the very bottom of Western economies, despite strong growth worldwide:

[Nonsense]

Corbyn should just withdraw us from the EU without consulting anyone, he is the will of the Proletariat made flesh and he knows it, why would he need a referendum?

Why would he need a referendum?

Well, the opportunity to decide should be that for the people to express their view,secondly,any Labour Manifesto is highly unlikely to present that option for the public to excercise their democratic right to decide & consequently exposes the undemocratic nature of the Labour Party political agenda.

Once elected, Corbyn will,like Gordon BROWN,become 'tone deaf' ,until they are once again kicked out of power, their protestation's that they will in future 'listen' to the electorate will fall on 'deaf ears', a sure sign that they will lose the following election.

[Atlantis]

Why would he need a referendum?

So he won't have to put his money where is mouth is.

[Nonsense]

So he won't have to put his money where is mouth is.

I know, he is the type that uses other people's money where his mouth is.

[Beren]

Theresa May told to clarify Brexit stance or face no-confidence vote

Prime minister ‘as vulnerable as she’s ever been’ as pressure from both sides of Tory party grows

Heather Stewart

Mon 29 Jan 2018 09.23 GMT First published on Sun 28 Jan 2018 19.17 GMT

Theresa May is under growing pressure from both wings of her own party to offer more clarity in public about what Brexit deal Britain wants, or face the mounting risk of a no-confidence vote.

Downing Street sources have confirmed that rather than setting out a fresh vision of Brexit in the spring, as some colleagues had hoped, May will make a more limited speech focusing on security cooperation at a conference in Munich next month.

With pro-Brexit MPs in open revolt, senior Conservatives are warning that unless the prime minister exerts firmer leadership over the issue she could be deposed.

“She’s as vulnerable as she’s ever been,” one backbencher told the Guardian. “She’s got to make a decision.”

Pro-EU MPs were alarmed by the show of strength by Eurosceptics last week, which saw Downing Street disown remarks by Philip Hammond that the UK and EU economies should diverge only “very modestly” after Brexit.

Brexit supporters threw their weight behind the prime minister in the wake of last year’s general election, fearing that any alternative candidate might abandon her pledges to ditch the single market and the customs union.

But they have become increasingly vocal in recent weeks amid fears that the government’s approach is softening. Both sides are frustrated with the prime minister’s apparent unwillingness to set out her stance in more detail.

The former Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers became the latest to go public this weekend, using an article in the Sunday Telegraph to warn that Britain risks remaining in the EU “in all but name”.

“Since the prime minister set out a bold vision in her Lancaster House speech, the direction of travel seems to have gone in only one single direction: towards a dilution of Brexit.

“If the government goes too much further down that path, there is a real danger that it will sign up to an agreement which could keep us in the EU in all but name, and which would therefore fail to respect the referendum result,” Villiers said.

Brexiters have been disturbed by reports that senior civil servants, led by the chief negotiator, Ollie Robbins, have been offering a series of compromises to EU officials, including continued membership of the customs union.

One cabinet minister dismissed the reports on Sunday night as “black propaganda from Brussels”, or a misinterpretation of the idea of a “customs partnership” that was floated by the government in a white paper last year.

But a senior pro-Brexit Tory said: “It comes back to the fact that no one knows what the prime minister really thinks – everyone’s projecting their worst fears on to her.”

Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the European research group of pro-leave backbenchers, hinted strongly on Sunday that he would like Hammond to be sacked.

“I tend to disagree with the chancellor on many things, but on this issue he seems to be disagreeing with government policy, the Conservative party manifesto and Mrs May’s speeches. This is real trouble for the government. The history of chancellors being in opposition to prime ministers is not a good one or an encouraging one,” he told ITV’s Peston on Sunday.

Pressed on whether the chancellor should lose his job, he added: “I’m being as loyal as could possibly be on the policy question, and I am biting my tongue on the personality question.”

Meanwhile, a string of headlines about allegations of cash-for-influence, and the personal life of the defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, also caused disquiet among moderate backbenchers, who are concerned about the damage being sustained to their party.

Heidi Allen, MP for South Cambridgeshire, tweeted her disapproval of what she called the Conservatives’ “old guard” on Sunday, saying her party needed to, “get a grip and lead”.

The backbench MP Johnny Mercer, sometimes touted as a potential leadership candidate, told the Sunday Times that at the next general election Jeremy Corbyn “could well be prime minister if we don’t get our shit together”.

Under Conservative party rules, a vote of no confidence would be held if 15% of MPs – 48 under current parliamentary arithmetic – write to the chair of the backbench 1922 committee, Graham Brady. One report in the Sun last week suggested as many as 40 may already have done so.

The Cabinet Office minister, David Lidington, urged his rowing colleagues to “come together in a spirit of mutual respect” on Sunday, warning that the Tories remain “neck and neck” with Labour and should focus their fire on the opposition, not each other.

“I think what I’d say to all my colleagues is that the Conservative family – left, right and centre, because we’re a broad church – has to come together in a spirit of mutual respect,” he said.

With the cabinet’s Brexit subcommittee due to meet this week, ministers privately admit deep differences remain about how much the UK should allow itself to diverge from the EU in future.

Lidington said that a future government would “have the choice whether or not to diverge, once we’ve left the supranational legal structures of the EU”.

But it is unclear how much leeway Brussels, which will publish its negotiating guidelines for the next phase of the talks on Monday, would be willing to allow Britain while granting the “frictionless” access to EU markets the government is demanding.

The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, plans to deliver a speech on what he calls the liberal case for Brexit in the next few weeks, which could spark fresh discord if it appears to differ from the prime minister’s approach.

It also emerged that energy minister Claire Perry had described Leavers angry about the so-called divorce bill as “swivel-eyed”.

Perry’s remarks came in a WhatsApp message to a private group of Tory MPs which was obtained by the Telegraph. It was sent last month as Theresa May agreed to pay the European Union a £39bn “divorce bill” as part of efforts to break a logjam in exit negotiations and begin trade talks.

Perry was responding to Tory MP Ben Bradley, who said he was “getting some shit from the usual subjects about sell-outs and traitors” over the financial settlement.

According to the newspaper, Perry replied: “The ‘sell out traitor mob’ should be ignored. Listening to them means wrecking the economy in the short term and via a Corbyn government delivering a long steady slow decline for the country we love.

“I would hypothesise that they are mostly elderly retired men who do not have mortgages, school-aged children or caring responsibilities so they represent the swivel-eyed few not the many we represent.”

Responding to the publication of her message, Perry said: “Passions were running high as we all worked to get the Brexit bill through and mine regrettably spilled over.”

May seems to be in serious trouble this time, I also wonder whether what exactly BoJo is cooking.

[hartmut]

Tracey Ullman hits the spot:

That's a job harvesting no envy.

[Atlantis]

Overall car sales in the EU increased by 3.4% in 2017. While sales increased by 4.7% in France and 8% in Italy and Spain, sales in the UK dropped by 10%.

Even worse is the decline in investments, which will further reduce UK productivity for years to come. As far as electric cars or autonomous driving is concerned we can forget about the UK.

That is the most optimistic scenario of the UK staying in the single market with a Norway-style passive EU membership. If the UK economy goes over the cliff in the year or two, things could get a lot worse. Needless to say that other sectors like services will be hit even harder.

But yeah, Brexit is a great success - at least for the EU, it certainly is.

UK car production falls for first time since 2009 as Brexit fears hit sales

UK car production went into reverse last year for the first time since the depths of financial crisis in 2009, as Brexit fears took hold and consumers turned their backs on diesel vehicles.

A total of 1.67m cars rolled off UK production lines in 2017, down 3% compared with 2016 as demand for British-made cars dropped both at home and abroad, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The number was about 130,000 below the industry’s forecast, largely because of a near 10% fall in domestic buyers as cash-strapped households in Britain were increasingly reluctant to commit to major spending decisions. The SMMT also blamed “confusion” over the government’s policy on diesel.

The trade body warned 2018 was likely to be another tough year for the UK industry, which is facing the prospect of declining investment and zero growth in production volumes.

Companies including Toyota, Jaguar Land Rover, and McLaren last year committed to a total of £1.1bn in future investment in the UK, down 34% compared with the £1.66bn committed in 2016 and below the average over the past few years.

“A drop of that magnitude is a concern,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, as he warned the government needed to provide “urgent clarity” on a transitional Brexit deal so that companies could press ahead with crucial spending decisions.

“Transitional arrangements must retain all the current benefits or else around 10% of our exports could be threatened overnight,” Hawes said.

“We compete in a global race to produce the best cars and must continue to attract investment to remain competitive. Whilst such investment is often cyclical the evidence is that it is now stalling, so we need rapid progress on trade discussions to safeguard jobs and stimulate future growth.”

The UK industry has abandoned a target to build more than 2m cars a year by 2020 – breaking a previous record of 1.92m in 1972 – because of the scale of uncertainty posed by Brexit.

“It’s hard to see [the industry achieve] that when we have this period of uncertainty. We still hope that we can maintain the inherent strengths that we have, but circumstances have undoubtedly changed,” Hawes said.

About 80% of cars made in Britain are destined for export markets. In 2017 vehicles made for overseas markets fell 1.1% to 1.33m, while those made for sale in the UK fell 9.8% to 336,628. The EU is the UK’s biggest export market for cars, with more than half of all exports destined for the single-currency bloc.

Hawes said there was a risk that Britain was so distracted by Brexit that it could fall behind other countries focused on the development of electric and driverless technology.

“That’s the danger when you’ve got uncertain times. Every company is modelling different scenarios and trying to make sure they’re in the best possible place,” he said.

Theresa May met industry leaders in November to discuss their concerns about the sector after Brexit.

Andy Barratt, chairman and managing director of Ford in the UK, which employs about 14,000 people, said the government had listened to their concerns. “We have an active voice. Industry has been very clear and consistent about what it needs.” Barratt said Ford was still investing in its engine plants at Dagenham in Essex and Bridgend in south Wales.

Mick Flanagan, vice-president at Adient, which makes the seats for one in every three cars produced around the world, said that delays of just two to three hours at a customs border would create a “big problem” because production lines run with “military precision”.

Last week Jaguar Land Rover, Britain’s biggest car manufacturer, announced plans to cut production at its Halewood plant near Liverpool, blaming faltering sales after the Brexit vote and a tax crackdown on diesel vehicles.

[Decky]

Customs posts wouldn't be a problem if that factories sourced their parts and materials in the UK. Any company run by a treasonous shit who imports instead of buying what he needs at home deserves to go bust. Corbyn can just nationalise the factory when the time comes and it will be business as usual again.

[Atlantis]

Customs posts wouldn't be a problem if that factories sourced their parts and materials in the UK. Any company run by a treasonous shit who imports instead of buying what he needs at home deserves to go bust. Corbyn can just nationalise the factory when the time comes and it will be business as usual again.

The UK has dependent on international trade for almost 500 years. Even the Warsaw pact together with its allies, which had at least 20 times the size of the UK, didn't stay competitive. That leaves North Korea as the only model to follow. Except that the Koreans are a step ahead of you since they have their independent nuclear force.

[Decky]

When Corbyn gets in there will be a London-Pyongyang-Havana-Minsk-Caracas-Hanoi alliance and the world will tremble, socialist troops will liberate Europe by occupying Berlin once more. One day the EU will be a bad memory just like your last attempt that ended with a bump in 1945.

[Atlantis]

When Corbyn gets in there will be a London-Pyongyang-Havana-Minsk-Caracas-Hanoi alliance and the world will tremble, socialist troops will liberate Europe by occupying Berlin once more. One day the EU will be a bad memory just like your last attempt that ended with a bump in 1945.

Oh dear! Haven't read the news in the last 25 years? Hanoi will be allied with Washington and Minsk with Moscow, but an axis Pyongyang-London-Caracas should be great fun.

In the meantime, the City of London is taking another hit:

Brexit: EU rejects City plan for free trade in financial services

Financial services industry to lose out from leaving the single market

Britain’s finance industry came a step closer to being locked out of European markets by Brexit today after Brussels officials rejected a City plan for a free trade deal in financial services after the UK leaves.

The plan being pushed by UK financiers proposed that Britain and the EU would continue to allow cross-border trade in financial services on the basis that both sides’ regulations would adhere to international standards.

But European Commission officials have told British financiers in meetings since the start of the year that there would have to be new trade barriers for banks because the UK is leaving the single market.

“They have made it very clear to us that this is unacceptable to them,” one senior British finance executive present at one of the meetings said.

“This was our best and frankly only proposal. We don’t have a plan B.”

Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s chief negotiator, publicly ruled out a special deal for the City in December, stating that Theresa May’s red lines on Brexit made the loss of the so-called “passporting rights” inevitable.

“In leaving the single market, they lose the financial services passport,” he said in an interview with European newspapers at the time.

German government officials have however behind the scenes suggested that the UK could retain passporting rights in exchange for continued contributions to the EU budget, according to reports that surfaced earlier this month.

Over 5,400 British firms rely on passporting rights to bring in £9bn in revenue every year to Britain. The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) has said the loss of passporting would be “disruptive, costly and time-consuming”.

Stephen Jones, chief executive of UK Finance, a lobby group for the finance industry, said billions of pounds were reliant on a good deal for UK firms.

Just like the UK wouldn't let the pound come under the control of Moscow, so the EU will not allow the Euro to be controlled by London. Euro trade will move to the continent.

[Decky]

The Euro is a worthless scrap of paper, Hitler tried to fund Germany with MEFO bills and look where that got him in the end!

A Mefo bill (sometimes written as MEFO bill), named after the company Metallurgische Forschungsgesellschaft (Metallurgical Research Corporation), was a promissory note used for a system of deferred payment to finance the German rearmament, devised as a legal fraud by the German Central Bank President, Hjalmar Schacht, in 1934.

Mefo bills followed the scheme for which the Öffa bills were the blueprint.

As Germany was rearming against the terms of the Treaty of Versailles they needed a way to fund rearming without leaving a paper trail; Schacht created this system as a temporary method to fund rearming with only one million Reichsmarks in capital. Schacht has later said that the device "enabled the Reichsbank to lend by a subterfuge to the Government what it normally or legally could not do".[1]

I know what you people are like, you can't fool me.

[Atlantis]

On leaving the EU, Britain will have to replace 750 trade agreements with third parties. But countries around the world are in no hurry to sign up to trade with the UK because they are guaranteed access to the UK market as long as the UK is part of single market or the customs union, while they don't have to give the UK access to their markets after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.

Why didn't the Brexshitters ever mention this?

Machine translation of Spon article:

After Brexit, Britain loses access to some 750 international treaties of the EU. However, third countries retain free access to the British market. This presents Prime Minister May with considerable problems.

It was probably one of these Brexit consequences that no Brexiteer had considered at an early stage: when Britain leaves the EU, it automatically loses access to around 750 international agreements. These include free trade agreements with around 65 countries worldwide, ranging from South Korea to Switzerland, which account for 12 percent of Britain's foreign trade. However, they seem to show little interest so far in simply copying the agreements with the EU and replacing "EU" with "Great Britain".

At least that is what the British Government seemed to imagine: The EU's contracting parties would simply rewrite the agreements and the problem would be solved. For third countries, however, there are few reasons for doing so.

For while they continue to enjoy free access to the British market after brexit, they can choose to grant the British the same right in return.

What sounds bizarre follows a simple logic. Britain, in its capacity as an EU member, has so far been part of free trade agreements with countries such as Canada and South Korea. When Brexit will be implemented as planned on 29 March 2019," Britain is no longer legally covered by our international agreements", EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said recently.

At the same time, however, the British will initially remain in the EU with one leg: at their own request, they will be given a transitional phase after Brexit. London should lose all seats in the EU institutions, but otherwise continue to be treated as a single member by the end of 2020 - with all rights and obligations. This also applies to free trade agreements.

Take South Korea, for example: the EU used to levy an import duty of ten percent on car imports from the country. The Free Trade Agreement, which entered into force in 2011, has gradually reduced it to zero - anchored in EU law that Britain must comply with during the transition period.

However, South Korea is not governed by EU law, but only by the free trade agreement with the EU, which leaves the UK in March 2019. The government in Seoul will then no longer have to give the British people free access to their markets - and would have little incentive to give London the same thing as the EU as a whole.

There are three main reasons for this:

- The UK is a much smaller market than the rest of the EU and therefore in a much weaker negotiating position vis-à-vis third countries.

- London is under pressure to conclude trade agreements with the EU and many other countries as soon as possible in order not to fall into a trade gap after the end of the Brexit transition phase. That further weakens its position.

- South Korea and other third countries, on the other hand, have more time, because transferring the agreement with the EU to London would initially not bring them anything they do not already have. This could even be the case in the long term if, contrary to expectations, the United Kingdom were to choose a soft Brexit that remains within the EU customs union.

According to the EU Commission, Chile and South Korea have already signalled their reluctance to copy the Treaty with the EU for Britain. They might not be the only one. There is an "obvious dynamism" in the matter, says a member of Barnier's team: British Prime Minister Theresa May has travelled extensively abroad, all with the aim of "cloning the EU treaties". But there has been little talk of resounding success so far.

Meanwhile, people in Brussels lean back and relax. Negotiations with third countries are London's problem, they say. They won't interfere. The message is clear: May should not count on the help of Brussels when it comes to cleaning the door handles all over the world.

Instead, they provide smug advice. Britain should try as soon as possible to copy the 750 or so trade agreements that it is about to lose, Barnier said recently - and at the same time doubts London's ability to do so. When talking about the Brussels red tape, the Frenchman said, it is better to remember that the EU bureaucracy works for all 28 Member States. When a country leaves the EU,"it should ensure that it has these administrative capacities itself

[hartmut]

Customs posts wouldn't be a problem if that factories sourced their parts and materials in the UK. ....

It is simply not possible to produce a modern car by drawing sources from UK only.
That is as clear as daylight for everybody in the automotive business.

[Decky]

It is simply not possible to produce a modern car by drawing sources from UK only.
That is as clear as daylight for everybody in the automotive business.

Odd then that we were the first country in the world to have an industrial revolution then isn't it? We were the ones who alone lead the rest of Europe to the civilised world from their backwards agrarian economies. If anything the only thing that is clear is that it is impossible for Europeans to have modern economies without the UK showing them the way. Continental Europeans are simple children in comparison to the men who build modern civilisation.

[hartmut]

Odd then that we were the first country in the world to have an industrial revolution then isn't it? ....

Indeed Decky, the first industrial revolution occurred on the British Island. That was end of the 18th and beginning of the 19th century.
Meanwhile we had several other industrial revolutions. I would count the 4th.
Isn't it a strange idea, to think 'because we were great in the past, we will be so tomorrow?

[hartmut]

Nationalisation at minimum cost is hardly rocket science. ...

I would say we can build a rocket together.
It is a task we can stand.
And I really would like to build a rocket, but it is irresponsible, because I am not able to exclude the danger of fire on the ground. (Canada in wintertime should have less risk.. )

When I was an adolescent, I made a rocket-experiment that failed.
... I am sure that I could do it successfully now.
But how to practise "Nationalisation at minimum cost" is a real miracle.
So, I think, you got it: it's "hardly rocket science".

[Atlantis]

What happened? No. 10 in the grip of Project Fear?

UK analysis shows big economic hit from Brexit

UK analysis shows big economic hit from Brexit

Leaked figures show the regional impact of three Brexit scenarios.

By PAUL DALLISON 2/7/18, 8:20 PM CET Updated 2/7/18, 8:21 PM CET

The British government’s own analysis of the economic impact of Brexit shows a potential fall in gross domestic product growth of up to 16 percent relative to current forecasts.

An internal government report that was leaked to BuzzFeed last week was made available to MPs on Wednesday — and quickly leaked to the press. According to Sky News, the report contains a region-by-region breakdown of potential GDP losses under three scenarios: staying in the single market, leaving with a free-trade deal, and a no-deal Brexit.

The region on course to take the biggest hit is the North East, which was heavily in favor of leaving the European Union. Government figures show a 3 percent fall in GDP growth by staying in the single market, an 11 percent drop under the trade-deal model, and a 16 percent fall if there is no Brexit deal. The losses are predicted to come over 15 years.

London comes out the best with a drop of 1 percent in GDP growth staying in the single market, a drop of 2 percent under the trade-deal scenario, and a drop of 3.5 percent with no deal.

Leave-voting Wales would suffer a 9.5 percent drop in GDP growth under a no-deal scenario, with Remain-backing Scotland facing a fall of 9 percent and Northern Ireland down by 12 percent.

Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley told the House of Commons Wednesday: “It is important to state that the U.K. government wants to achieve a good deal for the U.K. that protects the economic integrity of the U.K.”

Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the leaked assessment underestimated the potential increase in trade with the rest of the world after Brexit.

“In any assessment you can only get out of it the assumptions that you put in … If we can improve trade performance and improve our market access with new agreements — that is a double plus for Britain,” he told reporters when asked about the leaked analysis while on a trip to China last week, according to Sky News.

However, Stephen Doughty, a Labour MP, told the campaign group Open Britain: “It is utterly shameful that people all across this country are having to rely on leaks to find out how much damage a hard, destructive Brexit will do to their local economies and the country as a whole.”

Government forecasts of Brexit’s economic impact should have been drawn up with the aim of making the results public, the chair of the U.K.’s official budget forecaster said Tuesday. Robert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said the furor surrounding the leak of government forecasts of different Brexit outcomes, and the subsequent questioning of civil servants’ independence, had “not been a happy period.”

"The region on course to take the biggest hit is the North East, which was heavily in favor of leaving the European Union."

There is justice after all. People get to pay for their choices.

"Northern Ireland down by 12 percent."

That doesn't matter since reunification will boost NI's economy.

[Seeker8]

Japan going to close down all their factories in the uk then?

[Decky]

Good stuff, time to nationalise all those factories. All profits from car manufacture in the UK should go to the British people (government).