[JohnRawls]

That seems rather obvious to me as well.


And he can please his American partners only that way too.

That is Johnsons plan but we (The EU) see it happening differently:

1) We will not renegotiate the deal.
2) We will say that any new negotiations between the EU and UK after no deal Brexit will depend on a no border between NI and Ireland.(So no border first then we negotiate)
3) We will sit and wait while preparing for no deal.

[Atlantis]

Boris Johnson's masterplan, it seems to me, is simply to crash out of the EU with a no-deal Brexit.

I'm not so sure about that. Boris, like many Brexitters, believes that all it takes is a bit of Trump style tough talking and the EU will bend over backwards to comply with all his demands so that he, Boris, can emerge victoriously.

He can and will then blame the EU for the catastrophic economic and political consequences of that event.

If and when the economy crashes as a result of a no-deal, no amount of EU-bashing will save his skin. The voters will punish the Tories in the next GE. Boris knows this.

May's mistake was to seek to be a responsible statesman (stateswoman...? statesperson...? ) and get the best result for Britain as a nation.

May's mistake was to bind her government to her red lines, which she stuck to like a sacred Mantra. It only took Boris one day in office to shredder May's red line on the limit on immigration. Boris, like all good business Tories, likes immigrants, the shabbier the better. That's what makes the economy turn round.

Without May's red lines, Boris may actually be able to negotiate another deal with the EU. But accepting FoM won't be enough. The sticking points are the ECJ and the customs union. Tory Brexitters won't give up those red lines, which makes a close relation with single market impossible.

Interestingly enough, Liam Vox got the sack as secretary for international trade. I wonder what that means. Does that mean Boris has given up on the Brexit idea of independent trade deals or does that mean that Liam wasn't successful in his job?

[Beren]

That is Johnsons plan but we (The EU) see it happening differently:

1) We will not renegotiate the deal.
2) We will say that any new negotiations between the EU and UK after no deal Brexit will depend on a no border between NI and Ireland.(So no border first then we negotiate)
3) We will sit and wait while preparing for no deal.

It seems that Johnson's plan is to show unlimited determination and self-confidence and not even pretend to negotiate with the EU while sending ultimatums, which is a complete bluff, then go for an election and either dictate the terms, which is rather unlikely to happen, or force a no-deal Brexit after a decisive victory.

He has to go for an election because neither his mandate nor his position in parliament is strong enough anyway.

[JohnRawls]

It seems that Johnson's plan is to show unlimited determination and self-confidence and not even pretend to negotiate with the EU while sending ultimatums, which is a complete bluff, then go for an election and either dictate the terms, which is rather unlikely to happen, or force a no-deal Brexit after a decisive victory.

He has to go for an election because neither his mandate nor his position in parliament is strong enough anyway.

Well, yes. That is the point for us. Unless he wants to damage/suspend UKs democracy then what can he really do? This is the look that we are getting from the EU. I mean that there is a crazy chance that he will go for it then so what? We are preparing/prepared anyways.

[Atlantis]

It seems that Johnson's plan is to show unlimited determination and self-confidence and not even pretend to negotiate with the EU while sending ultimatums, which is a complete bluff, then go for an election and either dictate the terms, which is rather unlikely to happen, or force a no-deal Brexit after a decisive victory.

He has to go for an election because neither his mandate nor his position in parliament is strong enough anyway.

May gambled on the snap election because the polls predicted a 100-seat lead for the Tories. She lost. If Boris looses another gamble, it would risk bringing Corbyn to power, which the Tories fear more than the devil.

If he does gamble on another election, he would need an electoral pact with the Brexit party and probably promise Farage some prominent position in government.

Unless he wants to damage/suspend UKs democracy ...

May has already damaged the UK's democracy by calling an election when the polls favored the Tories while refusing to link the parliamentary vote for the WA with a vote of no-confidence. Both make a mockery of democracy.

[Beren]

May gambled on the snap election because the polls predicted a 100-seat lead for the Tories. She lost. If Boris looses another gamble, it would risk bringing Corbyn to power, which the Tories fear more than the devil.

May wasn't gambling, she was supposed to win with a safe hand, whereas Johnson plays like he doesn't even know (or care) what hand he's got.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

So it looks like either the Conservatives will bring down a Conservative government or Britain just leaves by the end of October, depending on how many Tory MPs are willing to vote no confidence.

[Nonsense]

Boris Johnson is so high energy that he should be connected to the grid as a power station perhaps.

Well, he is reputed to be something of a 'bright spark'.

So it looks like either the Conservatives will bring down a Conservative government or Britain just leaves by the end of October, depending on how many Tory MPs are willing to vote no confidence.

Neither party wants a general election,however, with the Tories, 'self preservation' will kick in.

Those MP's who left their parties to become Independent, they do not want an election either, because, they know more than anyone that their 'careers' are about to hit the buffers if there was one.

I think that if there were a 'no confidence' vote when parliament resumes after the summer recess on ( September 3rd), that, if the government lost that vote, there would be 14 days before they had to call an election,in which to overturn that vote by a motion of 'confidence' placed by the government side before parliament.

The opposition would lose that vote, because that act of proposing 'no confidence' has the effect of the party of government's MP's sticking together in solidarity against any such motion, in other words, it's counter-productive.

Even if the Tories lost that vote, the opposition were able to garner enough support to become another 'minority' government, at the very first opportunity, Tory MP's would themselves propose a 'no confidence' vote in parliament.

Not only that, the issue of BREXIT would be closed, because were such another minority government appointed, there would not be a majority to stop Brexit, but which itself would have already happened, because , under BoJo, the government controls the order papers & the parliamentary timetable.

Parliament itself, boxed itself into a corner from which there was no escape, but it will not stop us leaving on 31 October.

BoJo could dissolve parliament, in order to go to the country as soon as we have left the E.U, if he had a motion proposed & passed by a two-thirds majority.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Neither party wants a general election,however, with the Tories, 'self preservation' will kick in.

I agree that nobody wants it, but the new government looks like it's prepared for it.

Those MP's who left their parties to become Independent, they do not want an election either, because, they know more than anyone that their 'careers' are about to hit the buffers if there was one.

Yeah, it's not a trivial thing for Tory MPs. If a no confidence vote happens we'll see who's just grandstanding. And it's not only Tory MPs whose bluff might be called but that of Parliament as well.

I think that if there were a 'no confidence' vote when parliament resumes after the summer recess on ( September 3rd), that, if the government lost that vote, there would be 14 days before they had to call an election,in which to overturn that vote by a motion of 'confidence' placed by the government side before parliament.

The opposition would lose that vote, because that act of proposing 'no confidence' has the effect of the party of government's MP's sticking together in solidarity against any such motion, in other words, it's counter-productive.

Even if the Tories lost that vote, the opposition were able to garner enough support to become another 'minority' government, at the very first opportunity, Tory MP's would themselves propose a 'no confidence' vote in parliament.

Not only that, the issue of BREXIT would be closed, because were such another minority government appointed, there would not be a majority to stop Brexit, but which itself would have already happened, because , under BoJo, the government controls the order papers & the parliamentary timetable.

Parliament itself, boxed itself into a corner from which there was no escape, but it will not stop us leaving on 31 October.

BoJo could dissolve parliament, in order to go to the country as soon as we have left the E.U, if he had a motion proposed & passed by a two-thirds majority.

The schedule is tight, but I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Remainer MPs managing to get another extension.

-------------

Edit: Mail on Sunday


Bold claims.

[Atlantis]

May wasn't gambling, she was supposed to win with a safe hand, whereas Johnson plays like he doesn't even know (or care) what hand he's got.

Both gamble. May gambled on expectations from the polls and Boris, if he calls an election, will gamble on the expectation that he can win the vote from the Brexit Party with an aggressive election campaign based on a hard Brexit platform.

Considering the volatility of the current political situation and the vagaries of the first-past-the-post election system predictions are a risky business. The current class of UK politicians has reduced the political arena to a casino.

[snapdragon]

Why bother quoting from the Daily Mail? You might as well quote from the National Enquirer.

Boris Johnson and his merry men would have you believe they are playing a game of poker, but there's a reason why he's promised to immediately enrol 20,000 more police.

And that's to quell the riots when it all goes arse shaped.

[noemon]

Boris is clearly gearing up for an election, hoping he will get back the Brexit party votes as well as the votes of the security services who have always been keen Tory supporters but have been seriously punished by 10 years of Tory austerity. The Tory party has managed to win the past elections by being a party that can hold middle-class liberals and hard-right conservatives under the same roof. The Tories intending to take this government down to avoid no-deal Brexit are holding the middle-class liberal centre ground that is so vital to the party while Boris and his team are appealing to the hard-right ground that has abandoned them for the Brexit party. The Tories have set the stage quite well here and this dual setup enables them to talk to both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit people. They can also rely on the media to bog Labour down while they pretend to run 2 parties at the same time. One can see how artificially created this whole dual Tory setup is just by looking at Boris and his brother.

[Nonsense]

If we separate the foreign(Brexit) issues from the domestic agenda for a moment, I think that the public will see through what we may call the 'casino gambit' by BoJo, which is in fact, just another set of ploys to give taxpayers money to Tory 'friends' & businesses.

The public will be the one's picking up the tab through higher taxes, reduced pensions, benefits & public services.

Of course, like John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, whichever brand is in office, the national debt is resuming it's upwards trend above par towards £2 TRILLION by the next election,it was a 'trifling' £500 BILLION when Labour left office in 2010.

I think that the ordinary public will see through the last gasp gamble with public finances that only ever benefit the rich & better-off.

That's why, I think my 'nuclear option' of the people letting the Tories take us out of the E.U, then rejecting them at the next election is still(just)on course,it's a pity for CORBYN, that he is not leadership material, otherwise he would not have let BLAIRITE remainers in his party, control the agenda & himself.

I have said before, never underestimate the Tory Party's penchance for political power survival, they would, if necessary, even ditch BoJo if the circumstance warranted it before the election.

[B0ycey]

That's why, I think my 'nuclear option' of the people letting the Tories take us out of the E.U, then rejecting them at the next election is still(just)on course,it's a pity for CORBYN, that he is not leadership material, otherwise he would not have let BLAIRITE remainers in his party, control the agenda & himself.

The nuclear option just guarantees a remain parliament next election. You seriously think people are going to bang the leave drum when the shelves are empty?

Nonetheless we have someone who isn't Corbyn that is also a container at the next election. That person may well benefit from a Brexit backlash too. That is of course if there isn't an election prior to the nuclear option as I am sure the Tory rebels are there should BoJo maintain his "come what may" and "do or die" mentality.

[Nonsense]

The nuclear option just guarantees a remain parliament next election. You seriously think people are going to bang the leave drum when the shelves are empty?

Nonetheless we have someone who isn't Corbyn that is also a container at the next election. That person may well benefit from a Brexit backlash too. That is of course if there isn't an election prior to the nuclear option as I am sure the Tory rebels are there should BoJo maintain his "come what may" and "do or die" mentality.

We will be out by 31 October BOYcey, despite the empty vessels making a lot of noise about it, such as Gina MILLIER, John MAJOR, Dominic GRIEVE et al 'remainers'.
When we have left, save the recriminations for Gordon BROWN, the SNP, DUP,'citizen' CORBYN, Lib Dems & Labour remainers.

When parliament resumes, those remainers will have to put their money where their mouths are, or shut up, either way, they will lose their money\'careers'.

There are a few ligitimate 'tricks' in the political locker that the government can pull to thwart any attempt at political sabotage on or by 31 October.

The time for talking is closing fast, 'project fear' has failed, it's time for the U.K to die on it's feet, or live on it's knees as a vassal state of the E.U.

When the post E.U dust settles, this country will once again re-assert it's position as a global trader.

If BoJo wants to make us a vassal state of the U.S.A ,by signing a 'bad' deal with TRUMP, the political 'punishment' of not delivering Leave from the E.U would be mild by comparison.

It's Gordon BROWN that was a major cause of us wanting to leave the E.U, along with John MAJOR, they have no shame, yet they have done enormous damage to the country & the Tories will belatedly realise that they have been taken to the cleaners by the electorate when CORBYN get elected - maybe!

So, yes, we will probably have a 'remain' government in after the election, but, there will be nothing to 'remain' in, that's the reality that 'remainers' will have to face up to, for, it is they who voted down the W.A, leading to a 'no deal' exit from the E.U.

[snapdragon]

We won't be out on October 31st.

We'll get an extension to call an election, which Bojo will probably win, given our appalling FPTP method of electing a government most people didn't vote for, and also that the opposition is crap.

Unless Labour somehow get galvanised before then, boot out Corbyn and get a leader who can lead.

Since everyone has gone on holiday for the next 6 weeks, that is not likely to happen.

I cannot believe how bloody awful the future is looking for most of us, yet hardly anyone seems to care.

[Potemkin]

I cannot believe how bloody awful the future is looking for most of us, yet hardly anyone seems to care.

Come on, we all knew this stinking pile of sewage was going to come floating down the river some time or other. We'd been building up to it since the 1980s. I'm just surprised it took so long, that's all.

[JohnRawls]

We won't be out on October 31st.

We'll get an extension to call an election, which Bojo will probably win, given our appalling FPTP method of electing a government most people didn't vote for, and also that the opposition is crap.

Unless Labour somehow get galvanised before then, boot out Corbyn and get a leader who can lead.

Since everyone has gone on holiday for the next 6 weeks, that is not likely to happen.

I cannot believe how bloody awful the future is looking for most of us, yet hardly anyone seems to care.

You forgot to mention that the BOJOs team stance is changing a bit. Now instead of getting a good deal is easy it is now getting a good deal after no-deal is easy.

[Rich]

Come on, we all knew this stinking pile of sewage was going to come floating down the river some time or other. We'd been building up to it since the 1980s. I'm just surprised it took so long, that's all.

Marx and his successors have been preaching doom and gloom since the 1840s. Its amazing how such stupid ideas can go unchallenged. Its was not industrialisation that created such terrible poverty and poor quality of life for the lower classes in early nineteenth century Britain, but the massive expansion of the population. The rural population expanded not contracted during the early part of the industrial revolution.

I have no time for either BoJo's banal and idiotic optimism, or the apocalyptic ravings of so many Remainers.

[skinster]