Should CANZUK become a bit more like the US or EU? Should there be closer intergration? - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14943186
Beren wrote:The problem is that they're not the closest trading partners of each other anymore. Australia and New Zealand trade with China, whereas Canada trades with the US and the UK with the EU the most. So the ties between them are rather linguistic and cultural, which means they still could establish and regularly meet in online pubs perhaps.

Trade patterns are mercurial, the flows change, surge and ebb according to innumerable interacting and changeable circumstances, always searching out the optimal solutions for the time. The distance factor is influenced by fuel costs. The cross jurisdictional factor is influenced by regulatory compatibilities, tariffs, subsidies and other bureaucratic barriers or inducements. These are all variable things. In the context where the UK leaves the EU and forms a common market with CANZ then the cross jurisdictional factors will change radically, enough to shift the weight of trade away from the current common pattern. Also note NAFTA which makes easy trade across the US-Canadian border will not necessarily last forever, I am sure I heard somewhere that Trump opposes it, and he is not the only one in the US who does. What will Canada do if the US pulls out?

Though as I noted above trade isn't the main reason for CANZUK closer cooperation, it would just be an optional bonus.
#14943385
SolarCross wrote:Long distances doesn't stop people buying crap from China. Switzerland is land locked, none of CANZUK are, our situations are different.


I don't see how Switzerland is in any way relevant in this discussion. But if you insist, Switzerland is land locked but still relatively close to ports, at least compared to the inland areas of Canada and Australia, and is has a large river (Rhine) connecting Basel to Rotterdam.

Regarding distance and "buying crap from China". The trade volume (2017) between
- US and China: $636bn
- US and Canada: $582bn
- US and Mexico: $558bn

As you can see, the trade volumes between the US and the economic midgets Canada/Mexico are almost the same as with China. Because they're close. Distance not only affects transportation costs, but the general ease of doing business.

SolarCross wrote:That's down to budgets and a tendency to drop spending during long periods of relative peacetime. Excepting NZ, all of AUS, CAN, and especially the UK have engaged in large scale deployments many times in far flung corners of the world in the post WW2 era. Falklands for one, Iraq, Afghanistan, Mali for some others. Again you are thinking of your Switzerland, the neutral county with an army composed of a few bicycle riders.


I'm sorry but in the Falklands you were up against puny Argentina, in Iraq and Afghanistan you piggybacked on the US, in Mali the French did most of the work and it's a third world country anyway. We're talking about competing with powers like Russia/China/US. Of those only the US is actually capable or projecting power around the globe, in a way you would need it.
#14943398
Rugoz wrote:I'm sorry but in the Falklands you were up against puny Argentina, in Iraq and Afghanistan you piggybacked on the US, in Mali the French did most of the work and it's a third world country anyway. We're talking about competing with powers like Russia/China/US. Of those only the US is actually capable or projecting power around the globe, in a way you would need it.


And what about WW2, WW1 and the preceding centuries of imperialism?

Military power is composed of technology, the economic base and manpower. Based on that CANZUK has the potential to be on the same scale as Russia as a military power. No bicycles needed.

Also you are forgetting nukes.

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Currently Russia gets ranked as the second or third strongest military in the world while the UK alone even with a deplorable drop in the military budget gets ranked as 5th. Taken as whole with CANZ and also other commonwealth realms such as Papua New Guinea, Barbados and Jamaica a Commonwealth Realms military block could certainly compete for 2nd place in the world.

If it is any consolation the EU taken as a singular block, even with the UK leaving, could compete for number 2 spot as well. France ranks about the same as the UK and Germany is a top tier arms producer, arrange around that core all the other lesser european countries and the EU would easily have the technology, economic base and manpower to make a play for 2nd place and perhaps even go for 1st.
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