[JohnRawls]

You claim, even though the referendum result has been utterly ignored, that Brexit isn't as popular as it once was! This is mind boggling. What manner of democracy are we talking about? If the forthcoming election didn't go the way I hope and want it to, do you think it would be right for me to campaign against the result and demand another election?..

Yes. That is essentially what Brexit campaigners did? Also i have relatively few fish in the game. I am not from UK. I understand that Brexit is an important decision BUT since it is an important decision using a 51 to 49 vote to settle it was always going to cause problems and a lot of them. There is a reason why other countries have a system in place that demands a super-majority for these kind of things. (Usually 2/3rd of the vote but it varies from place to place)

[Ter]

Yes. That is essentially what Brexit campaigners did? Also i have relatively few fish in the game. I am not from UK. I understand that Brexit is an important decision BUT since it is an important decision using a 51 to 49 vote to settle it was always going to cause problems and a lot of them. There is a reason why other countries have a system in place that demands a super-majority for these kind of things. (Usually 2/3rd of the vote but it varies from place to place)

Yes it was and is about 50/50.
Now, considering this, do you or anyone thinks it is reasonable to stay in the EU if 50% of the population do not want that ?
Would the EU want a member state where they are hated by 50% of the population ?

[JohnRawls]

Yes it was and is about 50/50.
Now, considering this, do you or anyone thinks it is reasonable to stay in the EU if 50% of the population do not want that ?
Would the EU want a member state where they are hated by 50% of the population ?

It has shifted 45 to 55 actually in real terms of you discount the undecided. As for your question, it's hard to say. At 50 50 may be no is my answer. But reality is different because you find yourself in a situation where you are at the moment either in or out. Nobody should be in the EU against its will and only if it serves a purpose. So there is an element to the EU where EU has to prove its usefulness. The economic depression and the Greek crysis put a dent in to this trust. It's a two edged sword of sorts. On one hand we don't want to be intrusive but on the other hand we had no real chance to prevent the Great recession and the Greek crysis prevention would have required us to be severely intrusive in to all Greek affairs. It's complicated.

[Ter]

It has shifted 45 to 55 actually in real terms of you discount the undecided. As for your question, it's hard to say. At 50 50 may be no is my answer. But reality is different because you find yourself in a situation where you are at the moment either in or out. Nobody should be in the EU against its will and only if it serves a purpose. So there is an element to the EU where EU has to prove its usefulness. The economic depression and the Greek crysis put a dent in to this trust. It's a two edged sword of sorts. On one hand we don't want to be intrusive but on the other hand we had no real chance to prevent the Great recession and the Greek crysis prevention would have required us to be severely intrusive in to all Greek affairs. It's complicated.

Agreed.
You forgot one important element. Soon the millions of Muslim immigrants in EU countries will obtain citizenship and will be able to move anywhere in the EU. I think a lot of Europeans do not want them next door in their cities and villages. All that thanks to Frau Merkel. Wir schaffen dass ? Nein, wir haben den EU kaputt gemacht.

[noemon]

There are clearly huge discrepancies between the polls and reality.

Brexit support has increased overall and this increase has come both from people joining the hard Brexit view but also from people joining the soft Brexit view. If there is another referendum, Brexit will have it by an even larger margin and that is of course why noone is pushing for a referendum and Labour that is pushing for it, would only give the option of Remain vs their softest-Brexit deal. The huge majority of the UK want Brexit done one way or another. Hard line pro-EU people have already come to terms with the Brexit's(May's, Johnson's, Corbyn's) available.

Labour Party support is also not at 30% as the polls pretend to have it, it's at 40%. Labour is more popular than it was in 2017 and in 2017 it already had 40% of the vote while the polls were giving them 25-30% until the very day of the elections.

Labour is also the only chance for Brexit to be stopped and while the media and the Lib Dems are trying to cover this reality, more and more people realise that every day.

As it stands a vote for the Lib Dems equates to a vote for Johnson and a vote for Brexit. The only concern that Jo Swinson has is the same concern that Johnson has and that is to prevent Jeremy Corbyn from becoming PM. This is the main priority of the Tories, Lib Dems and even Farage who have all joined forces to stop Corbyn. Brexit has always been secondary to this issue.

The question that remains is whether the coalition between Tories, Lib Dems & Brexit Party will manage to edge Corbyn's Labour. Swinson is going to contest seats against pro-Remain Labour candidates in several constituencies splitting the remain vote between them and Labour while giving the Tories the edge to win those seats, even the Lib Dem candidates for those constituencies are quitting the Lib Dems and urging their voters to vote for Labour instead to keep the seat in Remain hands rather than hand it over to Leave MP's which is what Swinson is trying to achieve by contesting those seats and thus giving her true self up. While Farage will not be contesting against Tory pro-Leave MP's anywhere in the country. Notice the pattern here?

[JohnRawls]

There are clearly huge discrepancies between the polls and reality.

Brexit support has increased overall and this increase has come both from people joining the hard Brexit view but also from people joining the soft Brexit view. If there is another referendum, Brexit will have it by an even larger margin and that is of course why noone is pushing for a referendum and Labour that is pushing for it, would only give the option of Remain vs their softest-Brexit deal. The huge majority of the UK want Brexit done one way or another. Hard line pro-EU people have already come to terms with the Brexit's(May's, Johnson's, Corbyn's) available.

Labour Party support is also not at 30% as the polls pretend to have it, it's at 40%. Labour is more popular than it was in 2017 and in 2017 it already had 40% of the vote while the polls were giving them 25-30% until the very day of the elections.

Labour is also the only chance for Brexit to be stopped and while the media and the Lib Dems are trying to cover this reality, more and more people realise that every day.

As it stands a vote for the Lib Dems equates to a vote for Johnson and a vote for Brexit. The only concern that Jo Swinson has is the same concern that Johnson has and that is to prevent Jeremy Corbyn from becoming PM. This is the main priority of the Tories, Lib Dems and even Farage who have all joined forces to stop Corbyn. Brexit has always been secondary to this issue.

The question that remains is whether the coalition between Tories, Lib Dems & Brexit Party will manage to edge Corbyn's Labour. Swinson is going to contest seats against pro-Remain Labour candidates in several constituencies splitting the remain vote between them and Labour while giving the Tories the edge to win those seats, even the Lib Dem candidates for those constituencies are quitting the Lib Dems and urging their voters to vote for Labour instead to keep the seat in Remain hands rather than hand it over to Leave MP's which is what Swinson is trying to achieve by contesting those seats and thus giving her true self up. While Farage will not be contesting against Tory pro-Leave MP's anywhere in the country. Notice the pattern here?

Actually i believe this to be related to the majoritarian system of first past the post and not the polls themselves. Although people want to vote in a certain manner, they can't really because it would be giving a win to a certain other group. So it screws up the polls vs real election results. This is seen clearly when you are talking about the Tories vs Labour argument. A lot of people agree with Swinsons idea of not leaving the EU but disagree with her other policies. Or agree with her idea of remaining but disagree with Corbyn.

In a situation where Swinson didn't exist then those votes would go to Labour. For example if people consider remain to be more important than anything else. Be it pro-remain and also pro-Labour policies or pro-remain and also against other labour policies. There is no choice in the matter without Swinson. This is basically what Tories have now. Brexit tapped out so if you consider leave to be most important thing then you don't really have a choice who to vote for irrelevant of you agreeing or disagreeing with Tory other policies.

So a vote for for Swinson right now is a reduction of Labour vote. It is a fault of Corbyn to a degree, for not clearly supporting remain in the first place but i understand why he does it. He doesn't want to alienate the leave voters also since he inherently is more comfortable with his other policies. Basically he is neutral while his 2nd in command is clear remain.

As I said before, it is not that Labour got more popular or that Tories got more popular. It is simply a question of the vote being diluted or not. It is still pretty close even with 45 to 55 split on leave and remain. Not to mention other issues are at play like the NHS, Housing etc. On paper, if this election was in a vacuum between Tories Vs Labour then Labour would win hands down. In reality there are the Lib Dems who undercut tories a bit(5%?) while undercutting labour a lot. (10 to 15% of the vote) There is the SNP who are basically Scottish nationalist labour.(4% of the vote) The Green party is probably the only neutral party for Labour and Tories whos impact is hard to examine.

[Patrickov]

The Green party is probably the only neutral party for Labour and Tories whose impact is hard to examine.

It always astonishes me why Green politics seem to have so little popularity.

IMHO Corbyn himself is probably very Honourable, but strangely, many Corbynites seem not. Does anyone think this might be a reason that Labour cannot propel themselves to power?

[Political Interest]

Brexit is one of the biggest non-issues of the 21st century.

But as per usual the British public and media make a massive issue out of what are in the greater scheme of reality rather minor problems.

Brexit has just provided an opportunity for the signalling left and right to make their vapid analysis of society known through social media. Corbyn, Johnson, it is all the same, nothing will change whoever you vote for. It's all empty rhetoric as with most of UK and European politics today.

The constant hesitation on the part of the British public and political class is just indicative of the inherent and stupefying small C conservative tendencies that exist in the UK. Too afraid to leave, too afraid to stay, and want the best deal in spite of holding up the entire process indefinitely. Obsession over small details and trying to bargain with Brussels till the final degree. It's all very annoying and needs to be concluded as soon as possible. The European side have displayed supernatural levels of patience.

[Red Rackham]

Yes. That is essentially what Brexit campaigners did? Also i have relatively few fish in the game. I am not from UK. I understand that Brexit is an important decision BUT since it is an important decision using a 51 to 49 vote to settle it was always going to cause problems and a lot of them. There is a reason why other countries have a system in place that demands a super-majority for these kind of things. (Usually 2/3rd of the vote but it varies from place to place)

You say the referendum was 49% to 51% in favour of leaving the EU, which incidentally is a clear result however the result was in fact 48% to 52% across the UK. But it's worth mentioning that in England where 90% of the British electorate live, the result was 46.5% remain 53.5% leave, it doesn't matter which way you cut it, we voted to leave. Yet in good old EU tradition any vote that goes against the EU is completely ignored.

[Rich]

The European side have displayed supernatural levels of patience.

Have they and if so why? I'm a strong Remainer, but that doesn't we need to idealise the EU's negotiating stance. The fact is that both sides are "cake and eat it". Britain and Eire were not fully independent sovereign countries before entering the EU, they had shared sovereignty in a customs union and common travel area. The EU also want to have a strong border on the Island of Ireland to protect the single market while not having a strong border.

I this negotiation both sides are weak, but both sides don't want to own up to being weak. The EU's strange patience is not really strange when the fundamental fragility of their position is understood. In the same way May and Johnson's strange capitulations are not strange when the fragility of their position is understood.

[JohnRawls]

You say the referendum was 49% to 51% in favour of leaving the EU, which incidentally is a clear result however the result was in fact 48% to 52% across the UK. But it's worth mentioning that in England where 90% of the British electorate live, the result was 46.5% remain 53.5% leave, it doesn't matter which way you cut it, we voted to leave. Yet in good old EU tradition any vote that goes against the EU is completely ignored.

I don't get it. What is your point? The EU is stopping you from leaving? How? Your politicians are the ones that are dragging their feet. The EU accepted both Mays deal and Johnson's deal but both were struck down in UK parliament. The notion that the EU is responsible for your mess is stupid.

[Political Interest]

Have they and if so why? I'm a strong Remainer, but that doesn't we need to idealise the EU's negotiating stance. The fact is that both sides are "cake and eat it". Britain and Eire were not fully independent sovereign countries before entering the EU, they had shared sovereignty in a customs union and common travel area. The EU also want to have a strong border on the Island of Ireland to protect the single market while not having a strong border.

I this negotiation both sides are weak, but both sides don't want to own up to being weak. The EU's strange patience is not really strange when the fundamental fragility of their position is understood. In the same way May and Johnson's strange capitulations are not strange when the fragility of their position is understood.

You have not had continental politicians insulting the UK. Time and time again they have extended the deadline and have lamented the UK's exit as a loss for Europe.

Meanwhile Brexit Party MPs have been extremely rude. Ann Widdecombe's performance comparing the UK to an enslaved people and thereby intimating that the EU is enslaving the British people is a very good example of the decorum with which the British side has conducted itself.

[skinster]

[skinster]

[Patrickov]

I don't get it. What is your point? The EU is stopping you from leaving? How? Your politicians are the ones that are dragging their feet. The EU accepted both Mays deal and Johnson's deal but both were struck down in UK parliament. The notion that the EU is responsible for your mess is stupid.

I have a hypothesis that the Member referred by My Honourable Friend was suggesting that pan-European politicians had been manipulating British Remainer politicians to sabotage the Brexit process.

[Red Rackham]

I don't get it. What is your point? The EU is stopping you from leaving? How? Your politicians are the ones that are dragging their feet. The EU accepted both Mays deal and Johnson's deal but both were struck down in UK parliament. The notion that the EU is responsible for your mess is stupid.

If you knew anything about the EU you would know that what's agreed behind closed doors is always aimed at increased EU integration. Every treaty that has been signed on behalf of the British people by pro EEC/EU politicians, has never had the consent of the people. The historic problem we have had in this country, which is mirrored in other countries, is that come general election time we always had a choice of pro EU parties to vote for. Farage and UKIP upset the cart. Cameron had no choice but to allow a referendum because UKIP were polling 15% and growing rapidly. The thinking was that if Cameron allowed a referendum we would vote to remain in the EU and that would kill off UKIP and give the pro EU government a free hand to deliver the last vestiges of this once proud country to the unelected bureaucrats in Belgium. If I were a religious man, I would thank the gods for Nigel Farage. I loathe the EU with a burning passion, I hope the entire undemocratic edifice burns in hell

[JohnRawls]

I have a hypothesis that the Member referred by My Honourable Friend was suggesting that pan-European politicians had been manipulating British Remainer politicians to sabotage the Brexit process.

I fully understand what he means. But whanever he likes it or not, those people are British politicians. Politicians that were elected during UKs own elections. Hence the problem that I keep repeating come in, the divide is 55-45 right now and was around 60-40 in favor of the EU for the last decades since the UK joined. The situation will not change unless the support for the EU drops to something like 65-35 in favor of leave. Or if the deck is stacked and the vote is supressed/diluted like Johnson is trying to do right now. Its a way out to push through the agenda of Brexit but ultimately it will get people more angrier. And angry people are motivated to do things that they wouldn't otherwise.

@Red Rackham

UK is but 1 member of the EU. Yes, one of the largest members but it doesn't mean it can control all of the agenda in the EU. I was always puzzled at the complaints of the UK. You have/had the best deal out of all other member states with tons of exceptions and preferential treatments compared to the others. And you guys complain that it is not enough. You literally want control of all EU agenda and the ability to stear any discussion in your direction. This is not going to happen. You can veto policy but you can't stop all discussion in the EU if you don't like it.

[Red Rackham]

UK is but 1 member of the EU. Yes, one of the largest members but it doesn't mean it can control all of the agenda in the EU. I was always puzzled at the complaints of the UK. You have/had the best deal out of all other member states with tons of exceptions and preferential treatments compared to the others. And you guys complain that it is not enough. You literally want control of all EU agenda and the ability to stear any discussion in your direction. This is not going to happen. You can veto policy but you can't stop all discussion in the EU if you don't like it.

You missunderstand. I most certainly do not wish to control the EU agenda. I want nothing to do with an EU agenda, the reason pro EU politicians have signed treaty after treaty without the consent of the people is because the majority of the electorate feel the same. People do not want to be governed by 28 unelected bureaucrats who have pledged to put the interests of the EU before that of any nation state and who govern from behind closed doors from off all places, Belgium.

[ingliz]

A deal is oven-ready. Let's get Brexit done, and take this country forward.*

There is no more fatuous slogan than "get Brexit done". The withdrawal agreement starts the ball rolling on what is sure to be a decade long process in which we'll spend the first year just bickering about sequencing, scope and definitions. The only way even a basic FTA gets signed is if it's one already written by the EU. A basic deal doesn't even begin to address the three hundred areas of technical cooperation so even after a trade deal is signed we'll need a dozen more cooperation agreements on everything from marine conservation to aerospace. Brexit legacy issues will take years to sort out even from a pre-aligned position. ...

The Leave Alliance


* Boris Johnson, quoted in The Telegraph Nov 5, 2019.

[skinster]

Johnson was too afraid to attend some debates and this interview, so he sent daddy along and this happened