The Next UK PM everybody... - Page 26 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15032737
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:I'm genuinely curious if you can support this with anything other than assertions or random tweets. Everything I've seen points to the fact that there is little support "amongst the people" for Corbyn. They don't trust him and neither do they think he would make a good PM.


Do you see crowds singing about any other politicians at festivals? The vast majority of Labour's membership are due to Corbyn's leadership (325K+). Labour under Corbyn's leadership became the largest party in Europe. Even when people like you have claimed that X amount of people are mad at Corbyn for yada yada, the same study supports the majority still support him being leader of the party. :D

I mean, just today I've seen an opinion poll where the public trusts Boris Johnson more than Jeremy Corbyn on one of the central Labour issues, the NHS. Does something like this never penetrate into the media you read/watch or do you just ignore it?


Which opinion poll?

Sorry if I don't trust negative polls on Corbyn's leadership under Labour. Usually the same orgs/people said he would never be leader and were proven wrong; he wouldn't win that position twice, that there's no way he'd ever win despite the gains Labour got in the last election. Do you not pay attention to this stuff? What about the rallies the MSM hardly reports that shows thousands of people at every time?

It's certainly a possibility.


:D
#15032740
skinster wrote:Do you see crowds singing about any other politicians at festivals? The vast majority of Labour's membership are due to Corbyn's leadership (325K+). Labour under Corbyn's leadership became the largest party in Europe. Even when people like you have claimed that X amount of people are mad at Corbyn for yada yada, the same study supports the majority still support him being leader of the party. :D

You do realise that you are now talking about the Labour membership and/or people at festivals when you previously referred to the general public. I'm obviously not objecting to the idea that the membership supports Corbyn, they have made that quite clear after all. As for the numbers, the British voting public comprises tens of millions of people, so while Labour has a lot of members compared with other parties, it's obviously a small fraction of the "people".

skinster wrote:Which opinion poll?

Sorry if I don't trust negative polls on Corbyn's leadership under Labour. Usually the same orgs/people said he would never be leader and were proven wrong; he wouldn't win that position twice, that there's no way he'd ever win despite the gains Labour got in the last election. Do you not pay attention to this stuff? What about the rallies the MSM hardly reports that shows thousands of people at every time?

I think it was a YouGov poll. Polls are different to the predictions and convictions of pundits and organisations. Note that the polls did show the surge in Labour support before the last election.

As for the rallies, all they show is that those who do support Corbyn are very enthusiastic.
#15032743
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:You do realise that you are now talking about the Labour membership and/or people at festivals when you previously referred to the general public. I'm obviously not objecting to the idea that the membership supports Corbyn, they have made that quite clear after all. As for the numbers, the British voting public comprises tens of millions of people, so while Labour has a lot of members compared with other parties, it's obviously a small fraction of the "people".


OK, but are you claiming that Tories or LibDems have as much or more support than Labour under Corbyn do? :D

I think it was a YouGov poll. Polls are different to the predictions and convictions of pundits and organisations. Note that the polls did show the surge in Labour support before the last election.


If you're going to cite a poll, actually share it so I can at least know what you're talking about. So far you're only sharing your opinion but sorry, I don't trust Tories.

As for the rallies, all they show is that those who do support Corbyn are very enthusiastic.


And plentiful.

Can't say the same about any other party's rallies. :D
#15032761
skinster wrote:OK, but are you claiming that Tories or LibDems have as much or more support than Labour under Corbyn do? :D

The Tories, yes. The LibDems, no.
Image
skinster wrote:If you're going to cite a poll, actually share it so I can at least know what you're talking about. So far you're only sharing your opinion but sorry, I don't trust Tories.

You said you don't trust negative polls, so I didn't think it would be worthwhile for me to find it again. But here it is (Survation, not YouGov):

skinster wrote:And plentiful.

Can't say the same about any other party's rallies. :D

Sure, but the point is that you can't take it as support from the general public.

Just for the record, I said before the last election, when everybody claimed that Corbyn was unelectable, that while I hoped this was true, we shouldn't write him off. In politics things can and sometimes do change quickly. That was true then and is true now, but it also means that things could shift in favour of the LibDems.
#15032766
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:The Tories, yes. The LibDems, no.


:D

You said you don't trust negative polls, so I didn't think it would be worthwhile for
me to find it again. But here it is (Survation, not YouGov):


That poll isn't really something I'd go by on this election, given the amount of people asked and which media promotes it.

Sure, but the point is that you can't take it as support from the general public.


I can judge things based on what I see with my own eyes.

Just for the record, I said before the last election, when everybody claimed that Corbyn was unelectable, that while I hoped this was true, we shouldn't write him off. In politics things can and sometimes do change quickly. That was true then and is true now, but it also means that things could shift in favour of the LibDems.


Or Labour, the largest party in Europe today. :D
#15032770
skinster wrote::D



That poll isn't really something I'd go by on this election, given the amount of people asked and which media promotes it.



I can judge things based on what I see with my own eyes.



Or Labour, the largest party in Europe today. :D



Its hard to say who is largest. Europe is an oddball in this regard, party membership is usually for the most active people and not for all. (Which just proves that Labour members are very active) While in the rest of the world, everybody along with their grandmother are members of some party.

Most memberships in Europe do not surpass half a million while places like Cuba, Venezuela etc have membership in millions. I would argue that low party membership in Europe indicates that we don't really discriminate at political views nor does it provide benefit/downside outside of the political sphere compared to lets say America, China, etc

As for believing your eyes, well its a faulty way to a degree. Nobody can see the whole country plus the divide is huge now. Trump supporters don't know who supports Hillary and visa versa. There is no real interaction between opposite sides anymore, well a lot less. So both sides are a bit blinded in this regard. (There can be more than 2 sides)
#15032777
skinster wrote: :D

Well, that's how support for the Tories and Labour looks like.
skinster wrote:That poll isn't really something I'd go by on this election, given the amount of people asked and which media promotes it.

A sample of 1,000 people is perfectly fine.
skinster wrote:I can judge things based on what I see with my own eyes.

Remain also can draw lots of enthusiastic people out into the streets, but we shouldn't generalise this as huge support for Remain compared with Leave in the public at large.
skinster wrote:Or Labour, the largest party in Europe today. :D

Right, that's what I said. ;)

Edit: Anyway, I take from this that you generally ignore data or polls that you disagree with or which come from specific sources and that your confidence is mainly derived from your own experience or what you see.
#15032784
skinster wrote:Not just my own experience, but your ilk being wrong repeatedly in the not so long ago past vis-a-vis Corbyn. :D

What are you talking about. Durring last election in UK I literally said that labour will probably gain and to not count them out. It happened due to the fact that labour was considered a leftier and remain stronghold against right and probrexit Tories. Now labour is basically a left stronghold and not even anti-brexit. Labour is against no deal but otherwise labour doesn't care really. Tories on the other hand made also a turn to the right even further so more centrist members of the party are feeling neglected and Tory remainers.
#15032787
skinster wrote:Not just my own experience, but your ilk being wrong repeatedly in the not so long ago past vis-a-vis Corbyn. :D

Again, that ignores the fact that the polls did show the rise in vote share for Labour before the election. These polls were also commissioned and/or promoted by the same sources. I'm sure most of them were out by a few percentage points, but they did accurately reflect that there was a big increase in Labour's support.

Since the next election will almost certainly turn on Brexit, I think it will be a bit harder for Labour to repeat that, and it's also a distinct possibility that the LibDems hover up more of Labour's Remain vote.
#15032820
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:the polls

A poll, conducted by ComRes and commissioned by Britain Elects, shows that the Tories’ poll numbers would drop to just 26%, should Boris Johnson be forced to extend Brexit negotiations past the 31st October deadline.

The poll also found that Labour would overtake the Tories into first place, should the PM sign the extension.

Westminster voting intention:
"A General Election is held after extending the Brexit deadline beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 28%
CON: 26%
LDEM: 20%
BREX: 17%
GRN: 4%
#15032826
JohnRawls wrote:There is a very high chance that Labour will not be the largest opposition party within the next 2 months.

There's a high chance indeed that there'll be a hung parliament again and Labour will be the largest party in a coalition government.
#15032829
Well, look at the opposition.

I wouldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader in normal circumstances, but these aren't normal circumstances, so I probably will.

I'm sure many other people feel the same way, especially as he's now stated Labour will campaign to remain and will ditch his fence sitting.
#15032831
snapdragon wrote:Well, look at the opposition.

I wouldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader in normal circumstances, but these aren't normal circumstances, so I probably will.

I'm sure many other people feel the same way, especially as he's now stated Labour will campaign to remain and will ditch his fence sitting.

Chaos is a ladder! And both Johnson and Corbyn recognised that. Corbyn saw the disruption of Brexit as a chance to advance the far left cause and Johnson saw it as a chance to advance his political career. Johnson has got to number 10 and while I don't believe Corbyn will make it, its amazing that he has got this close. But more than this Corbyn and Johnson both need each other. The far left and the far right pretty much always work in tandem in democracies, while continually claiming to hate each other. Not that Johnson is remotely far right, but he's definitely being extreme on Brexit.

Politics will always be full of lying, but first past the post makes it much worse. So the Lib Dems have to appeal to tactical left voters on the basis that they'll form a coalition with Corbyn, but they must appeal to tactical Tories on the basis that under no circumstances would they put Corbyn into number 10.
#15032837
Rich wrote:But more than this Corbyn and Johnson both need each other. The far left and the far right pretty much always work in tandem in democracies, while continually claiming to hate each other. Not that Johnson is remotely far right, but he's definitely being extreme on Brexit..

If Johnson is not far-right, then how is Corbyn far-left? Corbyn's Labour is still a member of the Party of European Socialists, while the Tories quit the EPP under Cameron, which was a precursor of Brexit, and left into the wilderness. Since then, no matter how hard Cameron tried to avoid it, they've become a Eurosceptic party led by a populist strongman, like UKIP was under Farage. Which is today's far-right, see Le Pen in France or Salvini in Italy, they're basically the same, although Johnson may be somewhat more liberal. Meanwhile, Corbyn's just a moderate Social-Democrat, which is considered far-left only in the US and the UK, where Social-Liberalism is supposed to be mainstream leftism.
#15032848
Beren wrote:If Johnson is not far-right, then how is Corbyn far-left?

Corbyn as far as I can make out is a communist. He disagrees with his friends in the Socialist Workers Party, the Socialist Party and the old Morning star crowd in how you get there not in the final destination. Corbyn is essentially an entryist, like the Militant tendency, Socialist, organiser et al of years past. Corbyn has shown admirable discipline in what he has said over the decades, never openly admitting his support for the Soviet Union, the IRA, Saddam Hussein, Hamas et, etc.

As London Mayor Johnson called the Tories Housing Benefit reforms, ethnic cleansing. Johnson has no extreme ideological commitment except to his own career and ego.

Anyway I'm quite surprised to see that Politico now has the Tory lead down to 7% in the Poll of Polls.
#15032857
Rich wrote:Corbyn as far as I can make out is a communist.

I'd only expect Americans to consider him a Communist. :lol:

How could he be the Guardian's hero if he were a Communist?

The Guardian wrote:Corbyn says decision to prorogue parliament tonight 'disgraceful'

Jeremy Corbyn has described the government’s decision to prorogue parliament this evening as “disgraceful”. Asked about the move, Corbyn said:

    "I think it is disgraceful. Parliament should be sitting. Parliament should be holding the government to account. And the prime minister appears to want to run away from questions."

Corbyn also confirmed that the opposition parties have agreed not to back an early election until the government has complied with the bill ruling out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

ImageJeremy Corbyn leaves his home in north London this morning. Photograph: Isabel Infantes/AFP/Getty
Images


They posted a milder image of him before, but it wasn't manly enough perhaps:

Image
#15032878
Rich wrote:Anyway I'm quite surprised to see that Politico now has the Tory lead down to 7% in the Poll of Polls.


Also, Corbyn is a Marxist and anti-imperialist, and he may have been more radical during the Cold War.
#15032883
Beren wrote:There's a high chance indeed that there'll be a hung parliament again and Labour will be the largest party in a coalition government.



:lol: :lol: :lol: You have an untapped talent..as a comedian..Beren. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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