The Next UK PM everybody... - Page 48 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15053981
JohnRawls wrote:Yes but they are still predictable.


55-45 is irrelevant. It says nothing about what people would vote for in another referendum.

JohnRawls wrote:UK will start experiencing problems with unrest in the coming months.


I missed that part, wut?

JohnRawls wrote:The "Pros" for Brexit are something like a Brexit with no economic damage, Tories investing a lot of money in to NHS, Labour getting Corbyn v2.0, Boris negotiating a deal with the EU within 3 months (Trade deal included). Those are not very realistic or likely.


Nobody believes it anyway.
#15054000
The SNP in Scotland got 48/59 seats and Northern Ireland has a pro-unification majority for the first time ever.

I do not think this is a reason to celebrate for the one-nation party.
#15054005
Agreed that those are not aspects to celebrate.

On the other hand, the SNP had 56 seats in 2015 and then lost 21 in 2017 only to gain some of them back now, so things have been volatile for some time. I'm probably in a minority with this view, but I think that Brexit either will make no difference or it will make Scottish independence less likely.

As for NI, I've always been skeptical of the consensus opinion that Irish unification is inevitable in the long run, but I also find it impossible to predict the opposite with any confidence. All I can say is that I'm certainly hoping that NI stays in the union


JohnRawls wrote:Just the reality is that the opinions shifted now. 55 for remain while 45 to leave and its only gonna get worse. In a year it will drop down to 60-40.

Quite surprised by your confidence here, as the poll average is essentially the same as right before the referendum. But regardless, a more important figure at this point surely is the percentage who think the vote should be honoured.

JohnRawls wrote:UK will start experiencing problems with unrest in the coming months.

Doubtful, but in the unlikely case it happens, my threshold for taking any note will be the scale and length of unrest in the EU-member France. Let's see if the Corbynista radicals can muster the stamina to protest and/or riot once a week for a year in substantial numbers.
#15054031
Breakup of United Kingdom is long overdue. Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Austro-Hungarian empire disintegrated too. They all existed until some significant event occurred that made existence of independent parts more advantageous than the union. I think English must accept already that sooner or later UK may be affected too.
#15054043
Zionist Nationalist wrote:The UK might not exist by the time of the next elections :lol:

It'll eventually happen, in Northern Ireland at least. The unionists there lost their majority in the Commons for the first time and they're pissed off at Johnson for backstabbing them by agreeing to put up a border in the Irish Sea. There's little political or economic benefit of keeping Northern Ireland in the union and once the reality of Brexit hits Northern Ireland there will be a shift towards reunification and a referendum will have to be held there in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.
#15054046
Quantum wrote:It'll eventually happen, in Northern Ireland at least. The unionists there lost their majority in the Commons for the first time and they're pissed off at Johnson for backstabbing them by agreeing to put up a border in the Irish Sea. There's little political or economic benefit of keeping Northern Ireland in the union and once the reality of Brexit hits Northern Ireland there will be a shift towards reunification and a referendum will have to be held there in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.


The UK Has run its course. there is a clear disagreement between Scotland,England and NI its time to part ways let each nation do what it wants
and the stupid monarchy should end
#15054049
@Nonsense

Are you looking forward to the UK crashing out in June? July 1 is the deadline for Britain to request an extension to its post-Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020. Mr Johnson said this month that he will not extend it, and sees “absolutely no need to do that”.

The December 2020 trade deal pledge is unachievable on the terms set out in the manifesto.


:lol:
#15054053
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Agreed that those are not aspects to celebrate.

On the other hand, the SNP had 56 seats in 2015 and then lost 21 in 2017 only to gain some of them back now, so things have been volatile for some time. I'm probably in a minority with this view, but I think that Brexit either will make no difference or it will make Scottish independence less likely.

As for NI, I've always been skeptical of the consensus opinion that Irish unification is inevitable in the long run, but I also find it impossible to predict the opposite with any confidence. All I can say is that I'm certainly hoping that NI stays in the union



Quite surprised by your confidence here, as the poll average is essentially the same as right before the referendum. But regardless, a more important figure at this point surely is the percentage who think the vote should be honoured.


Doubtful, but in the unlikely case it happens, my threshold for taking any note will be the scale and length of unrest in the EU-member France. Let's see if the Corbynista radicals can muster the stamina to protest and/or riot once a week for a year in substantial numbers.


But that is what your poll shows. Around 55 to 45.

As for the unrest situation. Its my opinion about the UK. Comparing it to France is a bit dishonest because France is under different circumstances honestly. Its like defending 1 wrong by saying that there is another wrong going on so we are good... What kind of logic is that? :knife:
#15054083
Well, this country is basically retarded for the most part, particularly older voters who mostly voted for the Tories, while younger voters mainly voted for Labour. Which makes me think that the future will be red.

Sucks for all those on the streets, in poverty, with disabilities and mental health issues, because things will continue to get worse now that the Tories have a majority.

I had confidence in Labour winning because of the results from the last election. The mistake Corbyn made was not sticking with the Brexit vote like he did before that electon. But that was caused by the rightwing within the party who pushed hard against that and the remainers all over the MSM posing as leftists. I believe this is on them.

But not just that. This election was full of sabotage throughout; from UK intelligence, their mainstream media, the US and Israeli governments, centrists within the Labour Party, ALL OUT IN THE OPEN. We shouldn’t be surprised, despite seeing a movement on the ground that formed a membership of the largest European party there is. Hopefully that movement builds - without the centrists - and I think it will / has to, given the current conditions and how I expect them to get worse.

JohnRawls wrote:Bravado aside, I am usually pretty accurate with this. I do get some things wrong but bigger stuff is mostly correct.


Lol, no you're not. You're usually spouting neolib propaganda that's not far different to what government's state, like with your love for all the regime-change wars going. But you were here, but most of the MSM was saying the same shit so it's not like you thought this up independently.

snapdragon wrote:First exit poll makes it a Tory walkover. Fuck Corbyn. That stupid, stupid anti semitic wanker.


You guys should take some responsibility. If you didn't join in on the absurd smear campaign against a lifelong campaigner against racism, things might've been a bit different. He's not antisemitic. You remainers were babies for not accepting the Brexit vote and look what happened. Lol at you trying to put this on Corbyn, for the most part he played it well, despite all that power against him.

Zionist Nationalist wrote:Socialists lose again so predictable :D


It's difficult for socialism to win given the empire's power and how it attacks it whenever it might show its face, etc....as it did again to some degree. Mike Pompeo was out in the open talking about sabotaging this election. The Israeli lobby were recorded undercover talking of their plans to take-down pro-Palestinian politicians. Congrats, you guys won. Enjoy the continuous barbarism.

Ter wrote:Jo Swinson lost her seat lol


I lol'd too.

ingliz wrote:The English surpass the Americans in stupidity.


That was my first thought. Any working class person voting for the Tories while having the option for voting for their own interests is just...words fail me. A lot of them will pay the price to some degree, sooner or later I think.
#15054087
ingliz wrote:@Nonsense

Are you looking forward to the UK crashing out in June? July 1 is the deadline for Britain to request an extension to its post-Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020. Mr Johnson said this month that he will not extend it, and sees “absolutely no need to do that”.

The December 2020 trade deal pledge is unachievable on the terms set out in the manifesto.


:lol:


Sorry to disappoint you, we won't 'crash out' in June, we are scheduled to 'Leave' the E.U on 31 January, we then enter into the transitional period, for which a trade deal must be agreed.
That 'transitional' , AKA 'Implementation Period'(Art: 126) ends on 31 December 2020, however, by mutual consent, a 'one-off' extension, for a 2 year period may take place under Article; 132 in which to agree a trade arrangement.

During that period, apart from some exclusions within the W.A, the U.K would have to abide by E.U law in respect of everything, as if it was still a member, including, abiding by new E.U legislation in that period, that includes payments to the E.U, though they would be treated in part as 'on account' in respect of settling agreed liabilities.

Now, BoJo did say that he wouldn't seek an 'extension', but once we 'Leave' on (31 January 2020), the option of an 'extension' period wouldn't alter the fact that we have left the E.U & it would be a matter of faith that a mutually beneficial trade deal can be made during that extension.

As I say, everything is in a 'fluid' or state of 'flux' until it's all ratified in a new treaty.

The idea of a 'hard' Brexit is very unlikely, it's not in either side's interest.

I do take your points seriously, because they are relevent, just not 'red lines', as not just BoJo, but any other P.M, including CORBYN(had he won), would probably have had to extend the period.

Where the politics of Brexit are concerned, everything is fluid, or in a state of flux & nothing is fixed in space or time.

We will reach our destination though, that is a certainty.
Last edited by Nonsense on 14 Dec 2019 18:03, edited 5 times in total.
#15054089
Beren wrote:I wonder if those people vote at all.



Probably not, but, you can bet your last penny that they always get their 'Benefits' on time each week or other fixed period though.
#15054095
@skinster By alienating the centrists you make sure Labor will become the party of SJW nutjobs those ideas are not very popular among the general population and the fact that many young people voted labor just mean that the younger generation are easily manipulated by utopian promises which are unlikely to be delivered alot can change in the future young adults and teenagers will change their opinion several times before they reach their 30s nothing is guaranteeing Labor victory in the future. they UK may not even exist in a few years from now
#15054101
Beren wrote:I wonder if those people vote at all.


Some of them do. People were providing addresses for homeless people to vote this year.

Zionist Nationalist wrote:@skinster By alienating the centrists you make sure Labor will become the party of SJW nutjobs those ideas are not very popular among the general population and the fact that many young people voted labor just mean that the younger generation are easily manipulated by utopian promises which are unlikely to be delivered alot can change in the future young adults and teenagers will change their opinion several times before they reach their 30s nothing is guaranteeing Labor victory in the future. they UK may not even exist in a few years from now


Labour was a leftwing project once upon a time and under Corbyn's leadership he was pushing it back there. And it was popular and likely would've won if it wasn't for the Brexit issue. But there was sabotage a'plenty from within his party and basically everywhere on the MSM, including the government's BBC which showed its true colours during this election and ever since Corbyn's leadership bid, to even some boring centrists I know.

Who alienate the centrists? The centrists alienated leave voters and this is the result they got because again, the country voted to exit the EU, as it did the first time and that vote should've been upheld.

Anyway, centrism is dying too slow a death, good fucking riddance to it.
#15054103
Corbyn is just unelectable his statements about IRA and security issues pushed alot of potential voters away
also many disagree with his economic policies If I lived in UK I would never vote for Labor their tax policies will crush the middle class

MSM is biased thats true they promote their own interests or whoever pays them but its understandable since the people working in this industry are mostly high income class they dont want to pay more taxes

centrism is dying and that means in the future the choice will be between two extremes its either hardcore nationalists or progressive socialists
not a very good thing since this way the political discussion is only going to get more toxic and ugly
#15054120
A good analysis on what just happened.

Zionist Nationalist wrote:Corbyn is just unelectable


Yet he won his leadership role twice and historic gains for Labour in the 2017 election, despite the power against him throughout and before his leadership bid.

his statements about IRA and security issues pushed alot of potential voters away


Well people are idiots, because he was doing with the IRA what the government in charge at the time was doing in private.

also many disagree with his economic policies If I lived in UK I would never vote for Labor their tax policies will crush the middle class


Citation needed, since their tax plans were only going to affect the top 5% earners (middle class people and above).

MSM is biased thats true they promote their own interests or whoever pays them but its understandable since the people working in this industry are mostly high income class they dont want to pay more taxes


The campaign against him in the entirety of the MSM, including from the liberals/centrists within it, scored themselves an own-goal with electing Tories with a majority.

centrism is dying and that means in the future the choice will be between two extremes its either hardcore nationalists or progressive socialists


The future looks red according to the youngest of voters and the ever-barbaric present and future of capitalism.
#15054135
Perhaps a few PMs away, but if this lady commits to this and it isn't a gimmick, I can see a leader for the future.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/britains-youngest-mp-vows-only-21094591?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_me&fbclid=IwAR3IT1Qmht1Nl0eD0icbsw_lCOVOhnpT5QLKIRCj-Fz2ao0BLyF8sVRaD-s

An MP with convictions and a moral compass without any baggage is a very unique prospect indeed.
#15054169
skinster wrote:A good analysis on what just happened.



Yet he won his leadership role twice and historic gains for Labour in the 2017 election, despite the power against him throughout and before his leadership bid.



Well people are idiots, because he was doing with the IRA what the government in charge at the time was doing in private.



Citation needed, since their tax plans were only going to affect the top 5% earners (middle class people and above).



The campaign against him in the entirety of the MSM, including from the liberals/centrists within it, scored themselves an own-goal with electing Tories with a majority.



The future looks red according to the youngest of voters and the ever-barbaric present and future of capitalism.


Again and again, you blame everyone else besides Labour. If you really want to win properly then you need to reflect on the main problems.

1) There was already a shism within the party between centrists and heavy left leaners way before the election was announced. I know you will call them "idiots" but those people are voters. People who coexist within the Labour party and outside of it. Labour needs them on their side to win. The way you get them on your side is either by convincing to join the hard left camp or by softening your position on some issues that they might find threatening. Corbyn did neither. He didn't try to convert them nor did he soften anything. Converting is much harder so he should have softened his stance.

2) Playing the political "game". Before you say that this shouldn't be factor, I will need to remind you that it has been the case for thousands of years now. All hate it but all gotta play it to get elected. You might not like the Liberal Democrats but an alliance with them was an absolute necessity. Very rarely you get a fanatic like Farange just sacrificing all his votes to push something through. If there was an alliance between Labour and the Lib Dems not to split the vote then Labour would have steam rolled in this election. Lib Dems would have gained more places also. Swinson probably would have lost anyways since SNP is far more remainy compared to the Lib Dems.

3) Cut the shit with internal strife. One of the big problems for Labour is that a portion of the hard left within the party is heavily radicalised. If they don't get their way then they start to remove candidates, put wrenches in their tires and undermine them. This relates to the shism in point 1 but it is a seperate problem of its own. If a Labour candidate wants to support Israel then he should have a choice in doing so without fear of reprisals. Israel was given as an example to rattle you a bit so you can understand the problem. But the issue X can be anything really. Healthcare, austerity, Brexit.... In this regard Tories have it much better. There are pro-Israel and anti-Israel MPs within the Tory party. Nobody is getting lynched.

4) The media is a minor issue. Everyone has their party outlets. The media is not going to go away if we don't like them. Same goes for Social media. Both sides find new ways to use them. There is no real bias in my mind for Labour or Tories in this regard. Media just do what they are paid for and that is basically it. Same goes for social media. People who read TheGuardian don't expect to hear praise of the Tories while if you read the Daily Mail then you don't expect to hear nice things about Labour. Your party ability to use those channels is a whole different matter.

5) The future of Labour is moving more to the right. It is not debatable at all. Labour needs to get rid of the Libreal Democrats to get elected. It won't be able to do so with its current "hard left" stigma.
#15054171
We will see a return of the Blairite faction.

Labour's shift towards more leftist politics was simply a phase. Corbyn and his followers had their chance.

After his resignation the Blairites will come back to prominence.

Corbyn should be congratulated for his valiant effort and for the changes he made. It was an absolutely heroic effort and unbelievable that the changes he oversaw were possible in the Labour party of the 2010s.

Although the old man didn't win he can at least know that he fought a hard battle and got very far, just not to the height of actual political power. Corbyn is an inspiration for any dreamer and idealist irrespective of one's politics. Corbyn is a man of integrity and sincere political belief. I'll always respect him for what he accomplished and wish him all the very best.
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