[Atlantis]

He means to conduct the transitional period and the closing of the Putin era himself, of course.

I haven't seen anybody switch off his own respirator.

[Beren]

I haven't seen anybody switch off his own respirator.

Putin wants to live forever in his legacy, so he unsurprisingly means to secure it as much as he can. He's clearly not a power-maniac sociopath like Stalin was, who still made plans to purge the party leadership and secure his power again like he regularly did just before his stroke and death at 75 like he lives and rules forever. Then his legacy collapsed and his cult got destroyed by his successor who watched him die slowly on his sofa.

[Atlantis]

Putin wants to live forever in his legacy, so he unsurprisingly means to secure it as much as he can. He's clearly not a power-maniac sociopath like Stalin was, who still made plans to purge the party leadership and secure his power again like he regularly did just before his stroke and death at 75 like he lives and rules forever. Then his legacy collapsed and his cult got destroyed by his successor who watched him die slowly on his sofa.

How come you know Putin's personal intentions so intimately? Is there something you aren't telling us?

I have never met Putin and I think that most people don't even know their own real intentions. Humans are complicated organisms. Human organisations are even more complicated. In the end, does it really matter what Putin wants or thinks he wants?

What counts in the end is the network of people depending on the system Putin and their material self-interests. They have no intention of letting go. That's why Putin has to carry on until he drops.

Like Bouteflika in Algeria, most of these old geezers can't let go of power even if they can hardly sit upright in a wheelchair.

[Beren]

How come you know Putin's personal intentions so intimately?

Maybe I just try to really understand him following his actions. Have you ever heard about empathy or are you just a self-absorbed old man that only listens to himself and blasts like a radio? Putin could keep his power as president easily if he wanted to, so why would he bother to create a new constitution to dispense presidential power and make himself State Council chairman to do so? He simply wouldn't need to do that. This constitution is clearly supposed to be part of his legacy.

[fokker]

What counts in the end is the network of people depending on the system Putin and their material self-interests. They have no intention of letting go. That's why Putin has to carry on until he drops.

Putin cares about his country more than about networks of people who depend on the system. Why do I and Beren have different opinion? Maybe because we live closer to Russia, understand Russians better as they occupied our countries in the past?

When I mean gradual transition to parliamentary democracy I mean decades of slow and careful transition so that rash reforms are unnecessary.

Gorbachev compared his reforms to a revolution and it also materialized in the end, just not in the way he initially expected. Putin's goal are slower reforms that do not have unpredictable consequences.

[Rugoz]

It still apprears to be less authoritarian and more parliamentary and balanced than the recent constitution. It's a move in the right direction anyway.

That's not the conclusion of the article and not the conclusion you should draw from that list.

[Beren]

Putin cares about his country more than about networks of people who depend on the system. Why do I and Beren have different opinion? Maybe because we live closer to Russia, understand Russians better as they occupied our countries in the past?

When I mean gradual transition to parliamentary democracy I mean decades of slow and careful transition so that rash reforms are unnecessary.

Gorbachev compared his reforms to a revolution and it also materialized in the end, just not in the way he initially expected. Putin's goal are slower reforms that do not have unpredictable consequences.

There's always a pro-Western line in Russia, Peter the Great could be the most notable example, it just never prevails in the long term unfortunately. And there's also the Russian soul, which Westerners usually don't get, so they don't understand Putin too. He's clearly not an angel, but he's obviously demonised falsely and even that move of his is criticised spitefully.

[Atlantis]

Putin cares about his country more than about networks of people who depend on the system. Why do I and Beren have different opinion? Maybe because we live closer to Russia, understand Russians better as they occupied our countries in the past?

When I mean gradual transition to parliamentary democracy I mean decades of slow and careful transition so that rash reforms are unnecessary.

Gorbachev compared his reforms to a revolution and it also materialized in the end, just not in the way he initially expected. Putin's goal are slower reforms that do not have unpredictable consequences.

Every leader cares about his or her country. That doesn't mean they do the best thing for their country. For example, I do not believe that Hitler did the best thing for Germany. Even the most powerful leaders, like Trump, Xi or Putin, aren't free to act at will. They are the prisoners of circumstances just like the rest of us. It's the circumstances that produce a result; intentions are rather elusive.

If Putin wanted to do something for his country, he would allow press freedom and fight corruption. But that is exactly what he will not do. Beren has some naive hope that authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, etc.) will gradually turn into liberal democracies because of the inherent superiority of the latter. That was the thinking 20 years ago. In the meantime, the tide has turned and the pendulum swings into the opposite direction. Not only can we not export liberal democracy to the rest of the world, but liberal democracy is challenged even in Europe, while authoritarian rules, as in China, turn into full-blown totalitarian dystopias. If you live too close to Russia, perhaps you can't see the forest because of all the trees.

[Rugoz]

When I mean gradual transition to parliamentary democracy I mean decades of slow and careful transition so that rash reforms are unnecessary.

Putin started with a fragile democratic system and instead of strengthening it decided to turn it into the abomination it is now. Putin never had the intention to transition to a parliamentary democracy.

[Rugoz]

So Putin is now president for life.

Quite the farce he organized. Got a former cosmonaut to propose it and the Duma to rubber stamp it.

More powers for the president as well.

Schröder's "lupenreiner Demokrat".

[Atlantis]

So, where are our Russia specialists now @fokker, @Beren. No, Putin doesn't intend to step back, no Putin has no intention of turning Russia into a liberal democracy. On the contrary, Putin intends to stay on indefinitely. Since his approval ratings have gone into the basement, that can only be achieved by screwing with the constitution for further limit democracy. Just being East European isn't enough of a qualification to understand Russia. A little common sense would have done.

Russians vote on Putin's reforms to constitution

Russia has begun voting on constitutional reforms that could allow President Vladimir Putin to serve another two terms in office.

The official vote is scheduled for 1 July, but authorities said they were opening polling stations a week early to stop overcrowding amid the pandemic.

Opposition activist Alexei Navalny has said the changes will allow Mr Putin to be "president for life".

Mr Putin, however, has said they will ensure Russia's stability.

Although the president has not publicly said he would run again in 2024 when his current term ends, he has said it is vital he has the option.

"Otherwise I know that in two years, instead of working normally at all levels of the state, all eyes will be on the search for potential successors," he said in an interview earlier this week.

What are people voting on?
The big changes would limit a president's rule to two six-year terms in total, rather than two consecutive terms, and reset the clock so Mr Putin could continue in office after 2024.

Aside from potentially allowing him to lead Russia until 2036 - the reforms would give the president power to nominate top judges and prosecutors for approval by Russia's upper house of parliament.

They would also entrench conservative measures in the constitution, including an effective ban on gay marriage and an affirmation of Russia's "faith in God".

And economic changes would also be enshrined, including on the minimum wage and adjusting the state pension in line with inflation.

Roughly 110 million voters from Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast to Kamchatka on the Pacific are eligible to vote. Officials are providing masks and hand sanitiser at polling stations across the country.

The BBC's Sarah Rainsford in Moscow says a big turnout is vital for the Kremlin.

Officials have confirmed that people with Russian passports in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine will also be allowed to take part. Last year, President Putin made it easier for residents to get Russian passports and officials estimate some 150,000 people in the rebel-held areas of Luhansk and Donetsk could take part.

What do critics say?
Mr Navalny, a figurehead of Russia's opposition, has called the vote a "coup" and a "violation of the constitution". Some argue Mr Putin is trying to cling to power, or give himself an option to stay on if he cannot find a suitable successor.

The 67-year-old former KGB agent has led Russia for 20 years, both as president and prime minister. But his popularity levels have dropped in recent years thanks to economic struggles and deeply controversial reforms to the pension system.

Mr Putin introduced the reforms to Russia's 1993 constitution in January, and they have already been adopted in both the houses of parliament in Moscow. But the president said a public vote would give the changes legitimacy, and initially scheduled the poll for April before delaying it due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Activists organised marches to oppose the vote the same month but authorities banned them, citing rules about public gatherings amid the coronavirus lockdown. A website set up to collect signatures of people opposed to the vote was shut down by the courts.

Senior politicians around the country have come out in favour of the changes, and observers believe there is little doubt the measure will pass. Copies of the new constitution are already on sale in Russian bookshops.

Many have questioned the timing of Russia's World War Two Victory Parade. Tens of thousands of troops marched through Moscow on Wednesday - despite a ban on mass gatherings under lockdown rules - just a day before voting began.

What about the coronavirus?
The pandemic has further dented Mr Putin's standing.

Russia has the third-highest number of recorded infections worldwide, with 613,994 confirmed cases and 8,605 deaths - although critics believe the true death toll is far higher.

Latest figures released on Thursday showed there were 7,113 new cases reported over the last 24 hours. In May, Russia reported more than 10,000 new cases a day for more than a week.

[Beren]

Putin intends to stay on indefinitely.

Maybe he intends to live indefinitely too, although I wonder if intending to do so will be enough for him to succeed.

Even Putin can fail to get through with his intentions, like making Russia more compatible with Europe, however, in my opinion no one really knows his intentions. Also, if Trump doesn't get reelected, which seems likely, he may have to redesign, for example.

Just being East European isn't enough of a qualification to understand Russia.

It's still a better start than being an old pretentious Wessie, though.

[Atlantis]

Maybe he intends to live indefinitely too, although I wonder if intending to do so will be enough for him to succeed.

Even Putin can fail to get through with his intentions, like making Russia more compatible with Europe, however, in my opinion no one really knows his intentions.

Even tyrants may one day have had the best of intentions. Perhaps Hitler and Stalin only wanted the best for their people. Even Trump believes that he's the greatest thing that could ever happen to America. That's how much intentions are worth!

It's not about intention, it's about the mechanics of power that will thwart the best of intentions and make autocratic leaders turn into dictators because they can't admit opinions that don't comply with their own vision of their country.

In the end, it's just a matter of holding on to power by any means possible, even if it destroys their country. I'm sure that Putin was sincere when he talked about an economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok. He just wanted it on his own terms.

[Beren]

In the end, it's just a matter of holding on to power by any means possible, even if it destroys their country.

Putin's not a power maniac, he's just careful. He was testing the idea and it failed the test for whatever reason.


That's how Putin really is.

[Atlantis]

Oh stop idealizing Putin. His intentions, or what you or I think his intentions are, are totally irrelevant. What counts are the mechanics of power that force him into a certain conduct to try and achieve his aims that will finally thwart his original intentions. The current constitutional changes show quite clearly that the only thing he is concerned about is how to stay in power. Putin in power until 2036 or longer will paralyze Russia.

[Atlantis]

There was never any doubt about Putin's determination to stay in power. The only question was in what function. Would he create some new super state organ like a state council at the head of which he would continue to pull the strings of power? Or would he change the constitution to stay on as president?

As it is, he chose the latter. With his popularity in the basement, he has to resort to extraordinary measures to get constitutional changes approved. 16 more years of Putin will condemn Russia to stagnation and decline.

Putin's best-laid plans for lifetime rule

Vladimir Putin cannot afford to be an ex-president. Any successor will blame him for all that is wrong in Russia. There would be a mad dash to recoup (divide) his billions stashed offshore. He might even face international courts on charges of state murder.

Earlier than expected — he currently rules, by law, until 2024 — Putin is in the final stage of executing a plan for lifetime rule.

Here’s how the plan works: The Putin administration is orchestrating the ratification of 14 amendments to Russia’s 1993 constitution. The key second amendment wipes Putin’s slate clean: Election as Russia’s president in 2024 would be counted as his first, and he could run again in 2030. Under this new rule, Putin’s last year as president would be 2036 — at the age of 83.

The other amendments are window-dressing. They propose obtuse administrative changes and popular items such as outlawing same-sex marriage and guaranteeing minimum incomes.

The amendment package was approved in March by the State Duma (the lower house of the Federal Assembly), the 85 Federation Subjects (the country’s top political divisions), and by the constitutional court. Putin had planned for the final stage — a nationwide referendum — to be held amid the patriotic wave two days after the spectacular May 7 parades celebrating the 75th anniversary of Russia’s 1945 victory over Germany.

Then along came coronavirus. The victory parade had to be postponed until June 24, and the referendum until July 1.

As Russia reeled from the coronavirus, local authorities saw no need for military parades. But the Kremlin rejected calls for further delays in voting, announcing that the pandemic had been conquered and it was now safe to vote.

Putin’s campaign for ratification began on June 24 with pared-back victory parades in Moscow and in the regions — accompanied by a rising wave of protests against Putin as “eternal president.” Police are arresting demonstrators for not wearing (obligatory) masks — or for wearing masks that conceal their identity.

While the state-sponsored Vtsiom polling organization anticipates a strong turnout and easy passage, the quasi-independent Levada Center foresees a more difficult path for Putin. Putin’s approval rating is stuck at a low of 59 percent — down from a high in the 80s — and his trust level is stuck at 25 percent, down from a previous high of 60 percent.

The candidate for eternal president is missing the popularity he once had, and at a bad time in his political life.

For a national referendum, both the turnout and the voting results count. Levada finds that, as of early June, 65 percent of voters intended to participate and some 20 percent did not. Of those, 47 percent will vote for, 31 percent against, and 22 percent are undecided.

The Kremlin has introduced new rules, such as voting over a seven-day period, voting from home and online voting for Moscow and St. Petersburg. There is even a vote-buying app that pays 50 to 75 rubles per newly registered voter. Voters can vote at outside locations or through ward representatives who come to their homes. These voting rules are aimed to boost turnout and, of course, to raise the percentage of “yes” votes.

Election officials are being given voting targets; I doubt that many of them will fall short. There is little doubt that Putin will achieve his turnout and approval targets. After the voting-week is up and the app-ballots are counted, the electoral commission will announce a turnout in excess of 65 percent and an overwhelming “yes” vote.

There you have it: Putin is president for life. But that is not the end of the story.

Putin, more than others, understands that voters know when the official results bear little resemblance to the actual vote. The more voting officials have to manipulate the vote, the angrier the reaction of voters.

Putin came close to being removed in November and December of 2011 as the Kremlin manipulated the vote in Duma elections in favor of Putin’s United Russia party. Some 100,000 protesters burst onto Moscow streets with cries of “Russia without Putin” and nicknamed United Russia “the party of crooks and thieves.”

As an opposition deputy from St. Petersburg puts it: It will be impossible to hide the deception they are engaging in — and while the Kremlin’s denizens may not have paid attention to real history, as opposed to their imagined vision of the past, “many regimes have collapsed precisely when the mass population recognizes that an attempt to deceive them has been made.”

The Levada projections are three weeks out of date. Putin has been largely absent in the battle against coronavirus. There remains a significant share of undecideds as things have gone from bad to worse. Russia’s statistical agency has stopped printing its most-followed statistics. The number of COVID-19 deaths stands in excess of 8,000, and many think this figure is an understatement. After 20 years, the Russian people have a severe case of Putin fatigue.

Part of the Kremlin’s calculation is that the fear of coronavirus will scare off mass protests, but this may not be true. The demonstrations in the United States, which have spread to the United Kingdom and much of Europe (even including Germany), have shown that protests and coronavirus can go hand-in-hand.

No matter what, the referendum will be declared a success. If the people rise up, Putin will use force to put them down — but there are limits to public patience.

The poor Russian people cannot get a break. It would be interesting to put demonstrators against the established order in the United States and in Europe in Russian shoes, to see what real political repression is about.

It's almost like in Soviet time. The election winners are determined beforehand. The only detail that needs to be filled in is by how many percent he'll will.

[Beren]

Oh stop idealizing Putin.

It's rather you who should stop demonising him and sharing mainstream Anglo propaganda about him. Putin could stay in power without all that farce as well, so I wonder for what reason you think he's doing it. I'm also not idealising him, I'm just characterising.

[Patrickov]

Oh stop idealizing Putin. His intentions, or what you or I think his intentions are, are totally irrelevant. What counts are the mechanics of power that force him into a certain conduct to try and achieve his aims that will finally thwart his original intentions. The current constitutional changes show quite clearly that the only thing he is concerned about is how to stay in power. Putin in power until 2036 or longer will paralyze Russia.

IMHO posting an image of a fox, implying Putin being one, is a negative opinion. To me, he is criticising Putin as well.

Meanwhile, my question is why Russia (or most countries east of Europe proper in that case) cannot escape this vicious circle of dictatorship.

[Atlantis]

IMHO posting an image of a fox, implying Putin being one, is a negative opinion.

In the Far East, the fox has a rather negative image; however, in the West, the image is more positive. Portraying Putin as a fox is praising him for his smartness.

It's rather you who should stop demonising him and sharing mainstream Anglo propaganda about him.

This is the joke of the century! Me spreading Anglo propaganda You really stop caring what you say. There is nobody in this forum that opposes Anglo imperialism more than I do. You'll have a hard time finding a post in which I don't attack Anglo imperialism in one way or another. It is embedded in my signature line.

Up to 5 years ago, I accepted that Putin's guided democracy may be the best thing for Russia at that time to the point that some have called me a Putin dick sucker. However, things have evolved. The primary aim of the system Putin is to perpetuate the system Putin, primarily for the sake of the oligarchs and cronies who depend on it. Mother Russia can go and get fucked.

15 more years of Putin will destroy Russia. Corruption will get worse, democracy and individual freedoms will be curtailed further to suppress dissension and the economy will decline as the price for fossil fuels goes into the basement.

Putin is no longer a guarantor for stability. Putin isn't very smart either. He only succeeded in the ME because Yankee imperialism failed. It has to fail because imperialism is always stupid.

In fact, Putin isn't much smarter than Trump. Putin's choreographed TV appearances show a simpleton's view of a great leader, somebody who solves problems just by grabbing a phone. In reality, he can't solve the real problems. He can't come up with an adequate corona response, just like Trump, he can't solve endemic corruption, he can't reform the economy.

With Putin it's all a carefully choreographed TV show just as with Trump. The only difference is that Putin has the means to silence dissension.

[Patrickov]

This is the joke of the century! Me spreading Anglo propaganda.

IMHO that accusation does not necessarily mean the accused action is intentional -- gullibility at worst.

Although I disagree with him, because anti-Imperialists probably see Putin as an Imperialist himself, just that Putin pushes for Russian Imperialism (or Putin Imperialism) instead of Anglo Imperialism.