[B0ycey]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/barnier-eu-brexit-france-sovereignty-b1917655.html%3famp

WOW!

Well the big story that will be coming from over the Channel next year is the French election. And the rhetoric from Barnier right now is the same lines that came from Farage before the EU referendum. I suspect most people who have an interest in the EU politics will know who Barnier is. For those who don't, he was the chief negotiator for the EU during Brexit and is now looking to become the President of France. And what he is currently saying you would be very surprised indeed if you followed Brexit. He is asking for the very things that the UK was asking for during the Brexit clusterfuck... that's right. The Cherries and the Cake! More French autonomy, less EU bureaucracy, and a reduction of influence from the ECJ. Oh and to control borders! The very essence of the four freedoms. The very thing the EU will not compromise on. And the very essence of the union itself. That is not just a u-turn. That is a complete neglect of your principles. And it may well cost him his shot of the Presidency given one thing voters don't like is hypocrisy. Which may come in lucky for Macron. A great leader who is ahead of his time but a leader on the ropes right now. So why has Barnier done this? Does he share the Frexit mentality or is he doing this for votes? He must know that France can't achieve the very things he is asking for. But it might just be enough to get a few reforms from a union that may well need reforming and perhaps this addresses this issue informally whilst also grasping nationalistic votes back home. I don't know. But what I do know is this is a strange story and will make next years elections very interesting indeed.

[Beren]

So why has Barnier done this?

To divide the Eurosceptic votes, which may come in lucky for Macron indeed.

[B0ycey]

To divide the Eurosceptic votes, which may come in lucky for Macron indeed.

Lucky for Macron in one aspect, but the way the French election works, a Eurosceptic party should be in the run off I expect and then the vote won't be split. And if you have the chief negotiator of Brexit basically say the EU needs to reform, how is Macron going to play that in televised debates? The French are very skeptical people and I wouldn't be surprised if Macron doesn't make the second round regardless. Clearly they have some of the same questions we had over here otherwise Barnier wouldn't have played the suicide card and Macron would be polling higher. So forget Brexit, we should be watching France right now. Not for Frexit which I doubt is a possibility for whoever wins. But if Macron doesn't win, France will be demanding EU reforms and that may well split the union.

[Beren]

Barnier must be popular with the French right for having been so tough with the Brits, and now he's also tough with his own team the EU, so he may be so popular with French nationalists and Eurosceptics that he can even divide them enough perhaps. Even if he won't make it to the second round, he still will give his support to Macron.

[B0ycey]

Barnier must be popular with the French right for having been so tough with the Brits, and now he's also tough with his own team the EU, so he may be so popular with French nationalists and Eurosceptics that he can even divide them enough perhaps. Even if he won't make it to the second round, he still will give his support to Macron.

Giving support to Macron over Le Pen? sure. But let's not forget Macron came from one where last time and we can expect a year of Euro Skepticism if that is the card Barnier plays. Le Pen is also polling better this time over a run off and Macron is becoming less unpopular in any case. It is difficult to bet against Macron I guess but that doesn't mean he is a sure thing to make the second round and the run off means the vote won't be split which I guess was the point I was making before. And in laymen terms, that means this is a gamble for Barnier and he may well destroy his legacy on the hope he can steal Le Pen votes.

[Beren]

the run off means the vote won't be split

However, Macron only has a 10%-point lead over Le Pen in the second round according to a Politico poll. His net approval rating also doesn't look good, so some help comes in handy to him indeed.

this is a gamble for Barnier and he may well destroy his legacy on the hope he can steal Le Pen votes.

He agreed with Macron, I guess, that he's going to be an EU big shot (commission president perhaps?) in case Macron wins.

[B0ycey]

However, Macron only has a 10%-point lead over Le Pen in the second round according to a Politico poll. His net approval rating also doesn't look good, so some help comes in handy to him indeed.

Today or tomorrow?

I guess it is I who remembers that Macron came from no where last time and I am assuming that this becomes an election about reforms which may well over turn a 10pt lead especially given his approval ratings. And you are assuming the run off will involve Le Pen and not the Republicans in any case. But really this isn't to do with predictions, why, what or how. It was merely a warning. The French are skeptical people and if Barnier, the EU negotiator, talks about reforms, then the French will want them and demand them and may well become more Euro skeptical. That might not sound bad to you but the reforms Barnier is talking about aren't reforms that are possible and may well split the EU. I'm not saying that France will Frexit, just it will be another issue the EU will be split on and cause internal cracks. Of course Barnier may well lower his tone or even change tactic given the risks making this a moot point. Elections are never easy to foresee, but given early polls have easily been overturned in a year before, I don't see why you think a ten point lead is massive given it can reduce in any case.

[Beren]

I don't see why you think a ten point lead is massive given it can reduce in any case.

It's great if you don't see it because I don't think that. Macron and co. also must be worried, hence they deploy Barnier.