UK may be entering recession - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15282675
late wrote:Sounds like stagflation, another Brexit win..

Possible, but I think unlikely. If it was from Brexit, the effects seem to have taken a few years.

The UK and those who supported Brexit did not want to leave the European Free Trade zone, but the EU kicked them out to punish them for choosing to leave the EU. (So it wasn't actually Brexit that economically cut Britain off from the EU)

And several other countries in Europe such as Germany also are showing similar economic signs to the UK.

Part of it may be due to the reliance on gas, and that got shut off or they stopped buying it from Russia when the Ukraine conflict started.
Gas is important for heating and for industry.
#15282687
Puffer Fish wrote:
Possible, but I think unlikely. If it was from Brexit, the effects seem to have taken a few years.



Inflation in the UK is 2 or 3 points worse than in the EU...

Being in the EU was a very good deal for the Brits.
#15282688
I feel I have been totally vindicated on Brexit. Its definitely bad, but its not the equivalent of being struck by a kilometre wide asteroid as the liberal elite tried to make out. As I predicted the establishment have just replaced European immigration with non European immigration. We could have put a serious break on free movement, while remaining in the EU if our leaders had actually wanted that. Both the Brexiteer and Remainer establishment were absolutely committed to getting Turkish entry into the EU.

The costs of Brexit were a long time arriving because it took a long time to leave. The leaving process has still not really been completed, The more we move out of regulatory alignment the greater the costs will be. It is vital we don't let Keir Starmer get away with the lie that he can make Brexit work for the British people.
#15282859
Rich wrote:I feel I have been totally vindicated on Brexit.

Um, NO...
Brexit is not what cut the UK off from trade.
The EU chose that and did it as a reprisal for Brexit.

You have not been vindicated at all.

This reminds me of a leader in a military recruit training camp who issues a punishment against the entire group because one of the recruits committed a mistake. Then the leader tells the group that they can all blame that one recruit for their punishment, with the expectation that the entire group will be angry at that person. But in reality, that recruit was not truly the cause of their punishment.


The media dishonestly misled the public to believe that Brexit was inherently and inseparably connected to trade, and thus would cause economic harm.
(It's a little more complex than that but that is the essence of what the situation is)
#15282861
Puffer Fish wrote:The EU chose that and did it as a reprisal for Brexit.


Guy cuts his own legs off and then blames the legs for walking out on him.

The EU did not choose to kick Britain out of its internal market. That was a bunch of racist Anglos screaming profanities to the people across the channel for no reason whatsoever.

English(not British) Hooliganism at its finest.
#15282864
Rancid wrote:What options does the UK have now?


Get back in the Single Market when their egoism wanes.

The UK has gone from 5th largest economy to 10th(PPP). Even much maligned Russia has surpassed the UK by a lot and the British economy is now the same size as Turkey's, and not for long. Poland is projected to surpass the UK in the next couple of decades.

Technically, Britain is no longer a G7 or G8 country.
#15282879
noemon wrote:Guy cuts his own legs off and then blames the legs for walking out on him.

The EU did not choose to kick Britain out of its internal market. That was a bunch of racist Anglos screaming profanities to the people across the channel for no reason whatsoever.

I fear you may be very misinformed about the actual reality of Brexit then.

I recall a video where Nigel Farage (politician, infamous Brexit supporter) expressed that the UK wished to continue a free trade agreement with the EU in some form, and practically pleaded for it, expressing that they only wished to pull out of the EU, not pull out of the trade zone.

I think this is a case where the Left create fake consequences and then blame Conservatives for it.


"Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, told the European Parliament that it was in Europe’s interests to cut a trade deal with Britain after it voted in a referendum to quit the European Union. Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Dutch finance minister) said the terms of any such deal would be worse than those Britain enjoyed as a full member."
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... KKCN0ZE1OA


Brexit 5 years on: Europe 'is punishing the UK' for leaving EU: Poll
"The Euronews poll suggests many Europeans believe the EU wants to inflict punishment on the UK for daring to leave the bloc in the first place."
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021 ... ng-eu-poll
Alasdair Sandford, 23/06/2021, EuroNews
#15282889
Puffer Fish wrote:I fear you may be very misinformed about the actual reality of Brexit then.

I recall a video where Nigel Farage (politician, infamous Brexit supporter) expressed that the UK wished to continue a free trade agreement with the EU in some form, and practically pleaded for it, expressing that they only wished to pull out of the EU, not pull out of the trade zone.

I think this is a case where the Left create fake consequences and then blame Conservatives for it.


"Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, told the European Parliament that it was in Europe’s interests to cut a trade deal with Britain after it voted in a referendum to quit the European Union. Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Dutch finance minister) said the terms of any such deal would be worse than those Britain enjoyed as a full member."
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... KKCN0ZE1OA


Brexit 5 years on: Europe 'is punishing the UK' for leaving EU: Poll
"The Euronews poll suggests many Europeans believe the EU wants to inflict punishment on the UK for daring to leave the bloc in the first place."
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021 ... ng-eu-poll
Alasdair Sandford, 23/06/2021, EuroNews


Yeah, why exactly is there no free access to the EU market when you leave the EU market? How could that be possible?

As for free trade, well we have a free trade agreement with UK. The problem is not goods, the problem is everything else like services, free movement and regulations on those goods. We have a free trade agreement between each other already that is what people don't understand. I am not sure how people don't understand that with so many years passing.
#15282891
Puffer Fish wrote:I fear you may be very misinformed about the actual reality of Brexit then.


Or that is yourself as evidenced:

I recall a video where Nigel Farage (politician, infamous Brexit supporter) expressed that the UK wished to continue a free trade agreement with the EU in some form, and practically pleaded for it, expressing that they only wished to pull out of the EU, not pull out of the trade zone.

I think this is a case where the Left create fake consequences and then blame Conservatives for it.


"Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, told the European Parliament that it was in Europe’s interests to cut a trade deal with Britain after it voted in a referendum to quit the European Union. Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Dutch finance minister) said the terms of any such deal would be worse than those Britain enjoyed as a full member."
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... KKCN0ZE1OA :lol:


1) Farage said that he wants the UK to leave the EU but stay in the Single Market like Norway, in fact he kept banging on about the Norwegian for years, later he changed it, to leave the Single Market too unlike Norway. The Tories decided to leave both EU and Single Market even though they had no mandate to do so as the ref was for the EU alone.

2) "The Left"? :lol: Ludicrous, the Tories govern the UK since 2010.

3) You need to stop being somebody's victim.

Brexit 5 years on: Europe 'is punishing the UK' for leaving EU: Poll
"The Euronews poll suggests many Europeans believe the EU wants to inflict punishment on the UK for daring to leave the bloc in the first place."
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021 ... ng-eu-poll
Alasdair Sandford, 23/06/2021, EuroNews


What people believe is irrelevant to what is. This is not an argument.

If you needed even more proof about the fallacy of your argument, your own article confirms it:

In an article for the Financial Times earlier this month, Brexit minister David Frost accused the EU of "legal purism"


Brexit Minister accuses the EU for imposing the legal framework the UK agreed and signed with the EU. What did Frost expect exactly? :eh: Not to be bound by the legalities he himself signed?
#15282902
late wrote:Putin puppet.

What a pathetic fantasy world you live in. Liberals seem to think they have the right to dismiss any idea they don't like as a conspiracy theory. What's wrong with conspiracy theories anyway? I believe 9/11 was a conspiracy. I don't believe the 19 hijackers just turned up and boarded those planes by random chance. I believe they were operating from a pre-existing conspiracy.

But the Liberal also seems to think that when he proposes the most fantastical absurd conspiracy theories they must be taken as fact. Nigel Farrage left the Conservative party in protest over the Maastrict treaty in 1992. But you seriously propose that this action, and the whole rest of his career was done at the behest of Putin and his predecessors at the head of the FSB and Russian state.
#15282909
Rich wrote:
What a pathetic fantasy world you live in.



Brits have quite the history of Russia turning people to their advantage. That includes a PM...

If you paid attention, you would know this already.
#15282928
late wrote:Inflation in the UK is 2 or 3 points worse than in the EU...

Being in the EU was a very good deal for the Brits.


The €urozone is in recession, the UK is not.

Being in the EU was never a good idea for the UK.
#15282965
Red Rackham wrote:The €urozone is in recession, the UK is not.

Being in the EU was never a good idea for the UK.


"Eurozone" contains countries like Bulgaria, Romania, etcetera. It's a good thing you are now treating the UK like a Romania because the UK can no longer be associated with France or Germany who are several decades ahead the UK in infrastructure and industrial capacity & output and who have less than half the UK's total debt(both private and public) which stands at around 500% of GDP. Or any G7, G8 country for that matter actually.

The UK is a country in total and utter decline in all manners, economically, culturally, spiritually. It's a dead horse. It's willful isolation from Europe is merely a symptom of this decline. The crazies have taken over the asylum and there is no way out as you demonstrate.

I'm really curious though, if Brussels was such a tyrranical bureacratic monster, then why is Brussels incapable of imposing its will on Macron, Meloni or Merkel and could only "impose its will to the UK" according to Farage and the ERG's narrative?

Either Farage and the Tories were weak and pathetic people who were being "controlled" or the whole thing has been a total lie from the get go or most likely both. After all, every single government in Europe blames Brussels for all their own personal failings as it is a convenient distraction and scapegoat that never complains about it.

Why would Erdogan whose economy is the same size as the UK's(GDP PPP) and growing would want to become a "puppet of Brussels" and consequently become subject to the European courts even for matters like democracy when Erdogan has built his own personal political chiflik in Turkey?

As for "recession", the UK has been in recession and no creative accounting to make for 0.1% "growth" is fooling anybody. Inflation is still running at over 10% with interest rates already being 5.25% with more hikes on the way. 400-500% of GDP total debt(private and public), budget deficit of around 9%, higher bond yields than Greece, 3.93% for Greek bonds, 4.34% for British ones.

Car production UK 2016(1.7 million)
Car production UK 2022(750k)

London Stock Exchange lost around 2 trillion in value and is exponentially increasing every day amidst a massive exodus of companies for Amsterdam, New York and Paris(currently the top Stock Exchange in Europe surpassing London for the first time in history)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ty-exodus/

The UK's last hoorah was in 2008, when Britain, Germany, Netherlands, the US and others collaborated to blame the "Pigs" and thus turn themselves into temporary "safe havens", so they picked their victims, who became their saviours.

Media Coverage of the 2010 Greek Debt Crisis: Inaccuracies and Evidence of Manipulation wrote:The study by Sonja Juko [4](September 2010) includes findings like the following: "A closer look at the development of media reporting during the months of the crisis reveals that the dynamic of media reporting (measured as the sum of total press reports by German, UK und US press using ‗Greece‘ and ‗public finance‘ as key words) matches strongly with the dynamic of the loss in trust in Greece‘s creditworthiness measured by the credit spreads. The faster rise in the risk premium for Greek bonds that started in December 2009 coincided with a much higher reporting frequency. The same applies to the development in the weeks and months that followed this initial a scent of the Greek yield spread. The surge in the risk premium during April and May 2010 was accompanied by a strong jump in news coverage. During the peak period when the risk premium climbed to its highest level (calendar week 18, 19 and 20) the number of reports stood between 1000 and 1400 per calendar week. … Titles like ―Time bomb for the Eur (Der Spiegel, 7 December 2009), ―Shockwave from Athen (Die Welt, 16 January 2010), ―The next tsunam (Manager magazine, 1 February 2010), ―Prayers on the deathbed‖ (Der Spiegel, 15 March 2010), or ―Looming default. Economists give up on Greece‖ (Spiegel Online, 28 April 2010) are just a few examples for the use of sensational language in press reports during the observation period. The wording used by the media clearly created a psychology of looming collapse. Even if investors did not believe in a Greek default at first, they were much more likely to do so after hearing or reading the news on Greece."

In an article in Israel’s ύlobes (May 2010), Dr. Ehud Kaufman[9] argues: "So what is real in the crisis in Greece, and what is blown out of proportion by interested parties? Ο … If you want to fan the flames of a financial cr isis, manipulation of media coverage is the main means. Media coverage of the debt crisis in Greece not only inflated and accelerated the process; it became a central part of it. The coverage swallowed up the crisis, and the basic facts were almost forgotten."

3 Proposed reasons

Although there is no doubt about the structural weaknesses of the Greek economy and the dire state of Greek finances in 2009, media reaction (according to aforementioned studies) seems to have exaggerated their effects. Among others, both Greek and Spanish Prime Ministers at the time had suggested that the debt crises in certain Eurozone countries were politically as well as financially motivated (being at the time desirable, as long as they did not infect larger economies).[11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] A proposed logic is connected with the dire state of the finances of major economies after the 2008- 2009 crisis. The United Kingdom faced a budget deficit of 11.4% of GDP in 2009,[8]major bank failures, a total (private and public) debt of over 500% of GDP in 2011 [21] and, reportedly, huge "hidden debts".[22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] The United States had a budget deficit exceeding 10% of GDP in 2009,[30] a public debt that exceeded 100% of GDP after 2011 and, also, a reported major "hidden debt" problem.[31][32][33][34] Japan has maintained for years budget deficits near 10% of GDP, with its public debt exceeding 230% of GDP in 2012 (most of it owed internally)[35] In October 2012, the IMF Chief, Christine Lagarde, spoke of “Wartime debt levels for developed economies”[36] As the Greek borrowing rates - as well as these of other small, weak Eurozone economies like Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus - increased leading to debt crises in these countries (and kept rising), those of the U.S., U.K. and Japan, in addition to those of healthier economies, like the Eurozone "core" countries, followed the opposite trend: they fell drastically, as these countries were perceived as "safe havens" in a crisis environment. Indeed, the 10-year bond yields of several countries fell to record lows, including those of the U.S. (1.4% in July 2012),[37] the U.K. ( 1.4% in July 2012),[38]



The UK is no longer part of this group of privileged countries as the case of Liz Truss proved beyond any doubt. The markets took the UK bonds to third-world country levels and Britain for the first time last September had to sack its PM or face bankruptcy. Sovereignty much out of the EU. :knife:
#15282979
Red Rackham wrote:
The €urozone is in recession, the UK is not.

Being in the EU was never a good idea for the UK.



This was the first thing I grabbed, but it will do

"UK inflation, as measured by the CPI, was 7.9% in the year to June, down from 8.7% in the year to May. UK inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022.

EU inflation was 6.4% in June, down from 7.1% in May, In June 2022, EU inflation was 9.6%."

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02794/

"What was once the world's most powerful globalized empire has now voted to explicitly reduce global access to trade and talent. Since Brexit, immigration, exports, and foreign investment have all declined, likely reducing the size of the U.K.'s economy by several percentage points in the long run."
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/10/uk-economy-disaster-degrowth-brexit/671847/
#15282988
@late I am kind of surprised by how low your average pay is in the UK. They pay low for the cost of living in general. I wonder how they hope to make the cost of living expenses when inflation is so difficult.

Even remote work in the UK is not really going to pull the economy out of the dumps.
#15282991
Tainari88 wrote:
@late I am kind of surprised by how low your average pay is in the UK. They pay low for the cost of living in general. I wonder how they hope to make the cost of living expenses when inflation is so difficult.

Even remote work in the UK is not really going to pull the economy out of the dumps.



I am over 3,000 miles away, and South of London, England. I am in Maine, USA.

England has a problem with income inequality.


"Britain is a different story. While the top earners rank fifth, the average household ranks 12th and the poorest 5 per cent rank 15th. Far from simply losing touch with their western European peers, last year the lowest-earning bracket of British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia.


Across the Atlantic it’s the same story, only more so. The rich in the US are exceptionally rich — the top 10 per cent have the highest top-decile disposable incomes in the world, 50 per cent above their British counterparts. But the bottom decile struggle by with a standard of living that is worse than the poorest in 14 European countries including Slovenia.


Our leaders are of course right to target economic growth, but to wave away concerns about the distribution of a decent standard of living — which is what income inequality essentially measures — is to be uninterested in the lives of millions. Until those gradients are made less steep, the UK and US will remain poor societies with pockets of rich people."

https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945

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