[Smertios]

The Economist's terms of use forbid me from copying their texts into this forum, so I have to simply leave the link here: http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21573976-a%C3%A9cio-neves-ran-his-state-well-he-may-struggle-convince-voters-his-formula

For those who do not know about the opposition's candidate for next year's elections, it's a good piece about who he is and what he did. Considering the failure of the PSDB's campaigns in 2002, 2006 and 2010, they have decided to bet on someone new, who is just as popular as Lula, albeit more unknown outside his own state.

Next year's election will most likely be a match between Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves. If the economy continues the way it is, it will probably be an easy victory for Dilma, but it doesn't look like the numbers will remain good. Inflation is rising, growth has stagnated, prices have been rising sharply. If the consequences of the government's bad economic policies come before the election, there is a huge chance Aécio is going to win. Otherwise, Dilma will get either 4 more years to fix what she (and especially Lula) did wrong, or her party will probably lose the elections in 2018. There is a huge movement for her party, the PT, to launch Lula in 2018. She is barred from seeking a third consecutive term. But yeah, we will see what happens.

[Social_Critic]

You have to wait for the cycle to turn. But there's always the leftists will radicalize and try to entrench in power. Latin American upper castes have a tendency to be arrogant and lack political maturity, when the left goes towards autocracy the answer is to unite and develop a clear message. They seldom do.

[Soulflytribe]

I would easily vote for Aécio Neves. I tend to agree with most of what he speaks or writes.
And I truly think that he can win in 2014, because if the states of Minas and São Paulo vote overwhelmingly for him, and there is a very real possibility of this happening, there’s not much the other states can do to elect Dilma.

Aécio's ideas are very good.
I would like to highlight this passage from The Economist's article:

“Businessmen rate Minas as the country’s best-managed state, according to a recent poll by Macroplan (...) Poverty has fallen faster than in Brazil as a whole. Minas has the best-performing schools and comes fourth in health care. Its performance-related pay system for state employees, which rewards teams rather than individuals, is held up as a model by the World Bank.

Over the past decade mineiros, as residents of Minas are known, have become used to the notion that they deserve good services in return for their taxes. All the state’s schools must display their results in national tests by the front door and hold open days to tell parents how they intend to improve.”

But there's always the leftists will radicalize and try to entrench in power.

They are already doing that. They are talking about censoring the media very often now. But I believe it's a little bit harder for a politician to go Chávez here than in tiny countries like Venezuela, Uruguay, Bolivia or Argentina. The Brazilian worker's party will have to copy the Chinese brutality if they decide to turn this country into a dictatorship.

[AndresSerrano]

Country size means nothing when it comes to dictatorships. I vaguely remember a portuguese speaking country in Latin America being run by uniformed goons at some point in the not too distant past. Looking at the bulls from afar, I would posit that the level of education in Brasil has risen to a level where it is now impossible to lie to all of the people, all of the time. Also in the mix is the undeniable fact that Brasil's population, by and large has a firm stake in the prosperity of its economy and the stability of its institutions. an,yways it CANNOT go to hell on a wheel barrow. Someone I know intimately has BIG plans in Brasil for the next five years....

[Sithsaber]

This site says nothing but good about him:http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21573976-a%C3%A9cio-neves-ran-his-state-well-he-may-struggle-convince-voters-his-formula

Aécio Neves – A Political Heir Apparent

Ken Rapoza | Jun 01, 2009 | Comments 1



Aécio NevesWith an impeccable political pedigree, high approval ratings and matinee idol looks, Aécio Neves, the 49-year-old governor of Minas Gerais, has the credentials to reach Brazil’s top office.

Neves got his start in politics before he turned 21, tapped by his grandfather, Tancredo Neves, to serve as his private secretary when he held the governor’s seat. Elected president in 1985, the elder Neves fell ill and died before he could be sworn in. But the grandson, of the Social Democratic Party, went on to serve four terms as a congressional representative from Minas Gerais. In 2002, he won the gubernatorial race, implementing a managerial style – dubbed “shock and awe” – that cut spending, lowered state budget deficits and paid off public debts of US$135 million.

Neves, trained as an economist, instituted private-public partnerships before the federal government began the practice. His state also runs Cemig, one of the largest publicly traded energy companies in Brazil,

Neves handily won a second term by a 77 percent margin as voters responded to the improvements in state government. His administrative style has also won the endorsement of lenders like the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank, which has loaned millions of dollars for the state’s development projects.

His youth is unlikely to be a liability since Brazil has had young presidents before. The last president who hailed from Minas Gerais was Juscelino Kubitschek, who ordered the construction of the capital Brasilia during his 1956-1961 term.

The biggest roadblock to Neves’ presidential aspirations is his party’s standard bearer: José Serra, the 67-year-old governor of the state of São Paulo. Although former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso – an icon in the party – has called Neves one of the top presidential contenders, the PSDB power brokers appear to favor Serra.

Inside the party, a popularity contest has ensued. It pits Neves, who is single and often surrounded by models and actresses, against Serra, a dry technocrat who was clobbered when he ran for president against the charismatic Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2002. But São Paulo is the most important state in the country and Serra’s approval rating there is around 70 percent.

Serra also wants the presidency. Polls matching Serra against other potential contenders indicate he would win the office by a landslide, even against Neves.

Not that Neves lacks popular support. His approval rating nearly matches President Lula, according to DataFolha.

Serra would take Neves as his running mate, a possibility Neves rejects. Unless Neves wants to switch parties, his option may be biding his time for another four to eight years.

“Aécio is not going to cause a fight between himself and Serra,” said Walder Goes, a political consultant in Brasilia with close ties to Neves and other power brokers.

“The party has chosen Serra to lead them next year and he will be the next president of Brazil, is my guess,” Goes said. “Neves is not going to be president anytime before his 57th birthday.”

but of coarse they would ay these things when they are a latin american finance site. I haven't found anything bad about him yet but i know almost jack shit about Brazilian internal politics and the state this guy ran. Does he want to go back to setting aside the favelas and leaving them to their own devices? Does he seriously believe that the occasional IMF loan is all that is necessary to experiment with poverty reducing measures? How does he view further expansion into the amazon and regulation of mining there? Would he cut off the bolsa familia ?

[Soulflytribe]

Country size means nothing when it comes to dictatorships.

I believe it means a lot. And it's really obvious: a tyrant will have much more difficulty trying to dominate and pacify 200 million people spread across an area the size of a continent than ruling tyrannically a smal country with a small population. The country's proportions protect us from foreign invasions and dictators as well. You will need people like Mao or Stalin if you want to dominate a country like Brazil. You will have to kill millions. You will have to resort to genocide. The Russians and the Chinese probably know what I'm talking about.

I vaguely remember a portuguese speaking country in Latin America being run by uniformed goons at some point in the not too distant past.

Yes, for 20 years. And the uniformed goons were not that evil, they killed between 200 and 300 dissidents. And this why the Military Regime fell.

And now we have internet (66 million facebook users), the population is more educated (as you've mentioned)...
The leftists can (and will) try, but I don't think they can succeed.

Someone I know intimately has BIG plans in Brasil for the next five years....

I'm glad to hear that!

[Smertios]

I would easily vote for Aécio Neves. I tend to agree with most of what he speaks or writes.
And I truly think that he can win in 2014, because if the states of Minas and São Paulo vote overwhelmingly for him, and there is a very real possibility of this happening, there’s not much the other states can do to elect Dilma.

Well, it all depends on how the economy goes, really. Minas will probably vote en masse for Aécio. São Paulo too. And there are a few Northeastern states where he is relatively popular, like Pernambuco. But even then, i think it will be quite hard to beat Dilma, unless the economy gets really bad really fast.

but of coarse they would ay these things when they are a latin american finance site. I haven't found anything bad about him yet but i know almost jack shit about Brazilian internal politics and the state this guy ran.

The only bad thing people say about him is that he is known to like to party (he travels to Rio to party pretty much every weekend). And there are rumors that he does drugs too. But his governorship was terrific, despite all that.

Does he want to go back to setting aside the favelas and leaving them to their own devices?

During his governorship, Minas Gerais was the state where the condition of schools in favelas rose faster, and where crime in favelas dropped the most. Unlike what was done in Rio, he preferred to have unarmed policemen go up into slums to convince the people they were on their side.

Does he seriously believe that the occasional IMF loan is all that is necessary to experiment with poverty reducing measures?

No idea. Brazil is now a creditor to the IMF, rather than a borrower, so I think that matter is kind of irrelevant.

How does he view further expansion into the amazon and regulation of mining there?

Not sure either. I haven't really been following that debate to know what his positions about it are. There are very few politicians who favor change in the mining regulation rules in the Amazon, though, from what I heard.

Would he cut off the bolsa familia ?

Considering the Bolsa-Família program was created by his own party, during the presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, that's unlikely. Lula simply gathered everything FHC had created into one single program. And Lula and Aécio, despite being political rivals, were friends, and cooperated with one another. People called the 2003-2010 period the "Lulécio" administration in Minas. Basically because Minas voted for Lula for president and Aécio for governor in both 2002 and 2006. In 2010, "Lulécio" gave way to "Dilmasia". Mineiros voted en masse for Dilma (Lula's handpicked candidate) for president, and Anastasia (Aécio's handpicked candidate) for governor. And the relation between the federal and state governments remains cordial. During all this time, Aécio and Anastasia cooperated a lot with the federal government in programs like the Bolsa-Família.

[Social_Critic]

Smertios, Sith is in training to become a double agent within the CPUSA, where we lack the penetration to convince the American people to vote for radical Marxism. He will not forgive any candidates unless they wear red all the time.