[salamis]

I've recently moved to Venezuela because I believe that the "Bolivarian Revolution" presents a lot of opportunities to implement creative/transformative change to give people better lives, and find out what economic/social alternatives work. I know that Venezuela is a politically complex country, but I think the amount of opportunity here, plus the amount of need for change makes this a valuable place for internationally-minded people to seek change. Specifically, I'm referring to the enormous government support for starting cooperatives and social enterprises, for starting self-sufficient communities, the creation of community councils, etc.

Is anyone else interested in working with the Bolivarian Revolution to develop alternative solutions to problems like poverty, economic hierarchy/exploitation, etc.?

Is anyone familiar with current groups trying to do so, like the 200 or so self-sufficient communes that have started up recently?

Does anyone have ideas to share on working with the Bolivarian Revolution to promote positive change in the world?

Any thoughts and ideas would be much appreciated.

[Rainbow Crow]

Get robbed or beaten up yet?

[salamis]

Everyone outside of Venezuela, and some people in it, seem to have a really bizarre, paranoid image of the country as some sort of dystopian jungle-society being drawn into the abyss by the devil. So far, most people I've met here have been very friendly, and all I see is a country with universal free healthcare (which I've already taken advantage of), access to free education all the way through university, pensions for all of the elderly, relatively low unemployment, and a number of Missions that seem to be going to great lengths to improve the lives of the people. I was attacked and stabbed during my five days in Colombia, though.

[Social_Critic]

Salamis, I have a gazillion ideas on how to work with the Venezuelans to improve things. The following is a short list but it can be expanded as we discuss this subject:

1. Free the judiciary from executive power control, so that it is truly independent and can not be cowed by threats issued by Chavez and his compinches. I am thinking in particular of Judge Maria Lourdes Afiuni, who was jailed after Chavez called for her arrest, and has remained in jail since then. There is also a dire need for the judges to have much better pay, and also need to have many more lawyers, public defenders, and prosecutors. Today Venezuelan jails are a hellhole, they have been getting worse, and over 500 prisoners died in shootouts and massacres carried out by the authorities during jail riots. This means the government really does need to act to expand the jail system, and improve it. Having more judges would help because many people who are in jail today are on a pre-trial basis - some of them languish in jail for years without going to trial.

2. Strengthen the rule of law to have the government follow the Constitution and the law. This probably requires creation of a Special Prosecutor who would be somebody with no close family and would have to live in a fortress, and would have a special force of prosecutors and police to arrest government officials and military officers who have been stealing billions of USD under "Chavez Socialism", which has turned out to be incredibly corrupt. Pass a law so that officials who have stolen more than say $10 million USD will be executed by firing squad and their body exhibited in public in a suitable place, for example Plaza Venezuela in Caracas (just jerk out the fountain and put in a nice tall hanging post). Diosdado Cabello should be the first guy to go to the gallows, that would show the government really means business.

3. Stop forcing people who work for the government or government enterprises to go cheer for Chavez, wear red, and other indignities, because this is leading to significant flight of decent people who are tired of being asked to cheer for people they know are thugs and criminals.

4. Stop abusing central government powers and emphasizing dogma over pragmatism. For example, yesterday the Chavista police (Policaracas) arrested four city employees who were trying to drain a pond in the Cota Mil, which was really snarling traffic. The chavista police not only arrested said four workers, they confiscated the vacuum truck and thus far they haven't returned it.

5. Stop giving money away to Cuba and all the other parasitic governments which thrive solely due to Venezuelan handouts, and use the money to loan to private entrepeneurs who want to start small businesses. Forget the communes and all the other socialist type enterprises, that's hogwash, and it doesn't work. But giving some seed money to poor people who want to start a business does work sometimes.

6. Get yourself a kevlar vest and don't go out at night. The probability that you'll survive one year in Venezuela sounding as naive as you do is nearly zero. Don't use an expensive cell phone, dress poorly, and never get a nice haircut. And if you don't speak Spanish like I do, then you do have a serious problem.

[salamis]

Social Critic, you're political diatribe is unfortunately very familiar here in Venezuela, but rather out of place considering the purpose of my post. I was hoping to have a constructive conversation about how a number of government programs (in the form of support for social enterprises) could be used to benefit the people of the country.

Your response? "Forget the communes and all the other socialist type enterprises, that's hogwash, and it doesn't work." This is as if I had asked how we could use the government support for clean energy startups in the US to help the people and you had written "capitalism doesn't work, forget it, now I'm going to write a list of all the problems the US government has and blame them on Obama/capitalism." Ah well, this is a politics forum so I guess I have to work with what I get. Lets talk about Chavez/Venezuelan socialism then.

1. The prison system needs to be improved. I think we could all agree with that. I'm not aware of any "massacre carried out by government authorities" though... maybe you're referring to the rival gangs in the jails killing each other?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19323029

2. You're blaming government corruption on "Chavez Socialism?" Have you ever been to Venezuela, or Latin America for that matter? Here's some stats from Transparency International that might put that in perspective:
"Perhaps the most direct measure of corruption in a country is whether those surveyed personally experienced an instance of corruption in the past year. Only 16 percent of Venezuelans told LB that they personally knew of or participated in an act of corruption in the previous 12 months. This is 4 points below the Latin American average of 20 percent, and 11 points below the 27 percent figure Venezuelans provided in 2001. When TI asked, “In the past 12 months, have you or anyone living in your household paid a bribe in any form?” only 6 percent of Venezuelans answered in the affirmative, the same percentage as in Colombia and far below the percentages in Bolivia (20 percent), Ecuador (18 percent) and Mexico (31 percent)."

3. Could you tell me the law you're referring to that forces government workers to cheer for Chavez? In the course of my research here I've spoken with a large number of government workers; all of them have been very professional/competent, and they have overwhelmingly been supportive of Chavez (something one wouldn't expect if he was forcing them to do "indignities").

4. The national police arrested 4 workers and a vacuum truck? Why, exactly? And what does that have to do with Chavez or Venezuelan socialism?

5. So you would consider selling oil at a reduced price to Cuba in exchange for doctors to service low-income communities to be a wasteful handout? And would you consider the USA to be a parasite dependent on Venezuela as well (see article below on Venezuela's program to help heat low-income American homes as a gesture of good will)?
http://venezuela-us.org/2011/12/13/in-i ... americans/

6. Ah well you almost made it through that post without personally insulting me, it was a good effort.

7. Now shall we put all this in perspective?

Cons of PSUV rule:
-Overcrowded prisons
-Occasional over-stepping of constitutional power (remind you of the executive branches of any other democracies?)
-Systemic corruption hasn't been solved
-Goverment employee uniform switched to red shirt
-Some guys and a vacuum truck were arrested
-Maintains friendly relations with neighbors by offering them subsidized oil

Pros of PSUV rule:
-Economy of Venezuela has tripled since Chavez took power (despite the strike led by oil capitalists to destabilize the country in 2003, leading to a great depression-scale recession)
-Extreme poverty has fallen by 72%
-Poverty has fallen by around 50%
-Inequality has fallen to the lowest level in Latin America
-Venezuela has made huge progress on all 8 Millenium Development Goals, leading the President of the UN General Assembly to call Venezuela's approach a model for other nations to follow.
-Universal university education implemented, a number of new state schools opened.
-Universal healthcare implemented nationwide.
-Social security system implemented to give the elderly a liveable wage.
-Minimum wage increased to be the highest in Latin America.
-Food industry has been revived from its collapse during the 80s, and food production has been soaring in recent years.

[Social_Critic]

Salamis, I suggest we keep these posts shorter, otherwise the other participants won't read them. I'll respond to some of your points on a selective basis:

I realize your original post requested ideas on how to use socialism. But I refuse to be caged by your request, which assumes socialism as defined by Chavez, the paleo-communists and corrupt Boligarchs who surround him is the only solution. As I pointed out profusely in the past, this brand of socialism has almost always evolved into "savage socialism", also known as fascist capitalism (examples would be China, Viet Nam). The exception to date is North Korea.

I don't see a reasonable way for the brand of socialism your PSUVistas are advocating to function in a modern society, it is destined to fail, collapse the economy, and eventually morph into a savage, repressive form of fascist capitalism like its older brothers. You are engaged in a failed enterprise, and the pity is that you will cause so much damage, pain and suffering before mother nature does away with you.

Much higher oil prices are the only reason Venezuela's economy has grown in spite of all the mistakes and blunders made by Chavez. Nothing you say can be supported by statistics, which show that oil production capacity is down, but cash income is up due to the very steep run up in prices during the 1999-2012 period. This run up is largely driven by two factors: China and India began to consume more oil because their economies grew at a fast pace as they moved away from socialism and central planning towards savage capitalism in China and a more nuanced socialist/capitalist system in India. When 2.6 billion people move away from socialism and towards capitalism, this impacts the world economy and it grows and grows, this really boosts economies dependent on commodity exports, and Venezuela is a mono-economy, it relies on oil for most of its income. The other factor is the inability of the oil industry to keep up with increasing demand - the world indeed is running out of cheap oil.

You wondered if I knew what is going on in Venezuela. Given what you write, I presume you are plugged in and on the PSUV payroll. But you are not old enough nor rotten enough to know what goes on inside. On the other hand, I do know because I'm not Venezuelan, but I speak fluent Spanish, I lived in Venezuela, and I have tons of friends in Venezuela. For example, this morning I talked on the phone with a friend who complained about the recent run up in the price of potatoes, the way traffic is grinding to a standstill in Caracas, and the utter lawlessness which is driving people to stay home as much as possible.

I could write more, but I want to keep this shorter so others will read it. I think it'll take many years before you realize you are wrong, and when you do you may be too tied in to the regime to face the truth, so I don't envy your fate, you fell in the trap, and in the trap you will stay. But others who read this will weigh the debate, and I may save some souls before they are lost, who knows?

[salamis]

Nothing I say can be supported by statistics?

That's strange, because if you re-read my post, half of what I say is actually nothing but statistics/facts. On the other hand I can't find a single established fact in the breadth of your post, although there's an ample amount of caustic rhetoric and personal insults directed at me again for not sharing your opinion. Your implication is that anyone who doesn't share your political viewpoints (note: at least 55.5% of the population, but probably more) is stupid, brainwashed, or corrupt?

Regarding "mother nature" doing away with me and "my brand of socialism," as it has in the past, I can only assume you're referring to the United States? Here's a more complete list of the histories of the countries trying to follow "my brand of socialism":

-Guatemala: Democratic government is overthrown within a couple years by a US organized, financed, and equipped invasion, relying heavily on mass media, silencing of government media, and bribes to the military.
-Cuba: Originally moderate leftist government is forced to quickly ally with USSR after US undergoes an extensive campaign to destroy the government (invasion, economic war, 12 assassination attempts, etc.).
-Vietnam: Country is so completely destroyed after years of US-financed French occupation, US occupation (using chem/bio warfare), and subsequent US-led destabilization (through support to the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia) that I don't think any economic/political system could've saved them from bitter hatred, violence, and economic turmoil.
-Grenada: Democratic government is quickly overthrown by US invasion.
-Iran: Elected hero known for nationalizing the country's oil and introducing social programs is overthrown by a US-backed coup.
-Nicaragua: The regime of socialist revolutionaries that succeeded in overthrowing an oppressive (US-backed) dictatorship and restored democracy collapses after years of US organized/trained/equipped/financed terrorism.

Anyway there's a number I haven't gotten to but I'll try to keep this post length brief. So, in short, your thesis is that everything good that has happened in this country has been caused by high oil prices, and everything bad that has happened in this country is the socialists' fault? Would this apply to all of the social gains/programs that I mentioned in my previous post?

[jc_]

1) The prison system is rife with human rights violations. It is 100% the responsiblity of the government to fix it. Anywhere else in Latin America it would be criticized (and blamed on right wing dictators long out of power).

2) Corruption is rife in Venezuela. It is so rife that Venezuelans have a term for it. "Boliburguesía." The Fonden fund expenditures go unaccounted for. The Aben Pearl was a loss of over $700 million dollars into a shell corporation owned by 4-5 people. The list goes on. If you want statistics, the Corruption Perceptions Index places Venezuela at 172 out of 182, that is, in the bottom 10. Don't get me started on how Venezuela is in the top 10 deadliest places on the planet and how in Chavez tenure more than 150k Venezuelans were needlessly murdered.

3) The requirement that government workers must attend rallies is uncontroversial. If you're in Venezuela ask a government worker, they will tell you.

4) ...

5) Citgo's charity pales in comparison to Venezuela's deals under Petrocaribe, and the Convenio Integral de Cooperación between Venezuela and Cuba effectively gives Cuba $2.5 million in free money every day. On top of paying for the Cuban doctors in Cuba. It's not a direct trade off, Cuba is getting off very well for it.

As far as the poverty reduction in Venezuela? Brazil and Chile did it faster and more effectively than Venezuela. Venezuela wound up actually fostering a top class (called the boligarchs): http://www.cgdev.org/files/1425092_file ... _FINAL.pdf

Note the 5th quintile was left alone: http://i.imgur.com/oNgoR.png

[salamis]

Thanks for addressing some of my points, and for trying to use some statistics to do so.

1. Could you develop your argument about the increasing crime rates and prison problems a bit more? It seems clear to me that to deal with the prison problem, the government needs to deal with the crime problem, but I'm not sure what you think the government is doing to make these problems worse. I know they're in the process of creating a national police force, which seems like a sensible step to me.

2. We've both produced statistics regarding corruption in Venezuela, but one comes to very different conclusions depending on which he uses. The difference is that your statistics look at "perceived corruption" (how many people just "have this feeling" that the country is corrupt) while the ones I referred to look at "experienced corruption" (how many people have experienced/know people that have experienced corruption). I think you will find that the later is a more reliable measure, particularly considering that the vast majority of private media outside and especially inside the country are strongly against the government. Still, like many places corruption is obviously a problem. Do you have any stats about the change in corruption levels since Chavez took power?

3. I'll do that.

5. I was under the impression that Petrocaribe didn't give discounts, but just gave preferential paying conditions to the member countries. Am I wrong?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocaribe

6. That's an interesting article you showed me, but I'm afraid the analysis you're referencing is a textbook example of an "ecological fallacy". You can't average the statistics of Venezuela with those of several other countries, and then use those statistics to talk about Venezuela. Could you reference some statistics that directly compare Venezuela to Brazil/Chile? At any rate, though, the speed of poverty reduction in Venezuela might've been affected by the two major acts of treason that threw the country into turmoil (coup and oil strike)

You should also be aware that the discussion of inequality in that article is highly misleading. It says that Brazil and Mexico have been more effective at reducing inequality, whereas these are the most recent Gini's from the CIA World Factbook: Brazil: 52 (16th most unequal in the world )Mexico: 52 (18th), Venezuela: 39 (67th). The "objective" measure that they came up with for "government effectiveness" is also pretty laughable to anyone whose taught a political science research methods course (such as myself).

[Social_Critic]

Regarding "mother nature" doing away with me and "my brand of socialism," as it has in the past, I can only assume you're referring to the United States?

Don't assume, it's quite unbecoming when debating in PoFo to show such weakness.

Mother nature will do away with your brand of socialism the same way it has done away with it in China, Vietnam, Russia, etc. The fate of such "socialist" systems is to evolve into a form of ruthless, corrupt, and utterly inhuman fascism, what I sometimes call "ruthless socialism". I like to focus on human rights abuses, because I have seen plenty in my life, and what goes on in Venezuela is indeed troublesome:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detention_ ... des_Afiuni

The truth is that crime is completely out of control, the jails are hellholes, human rights abuses are common, the justice system is broken down, and the economy is about to implode. Are you ready for the forthcoming devaluation?

[salamis]

Social Critic, please try to respond to respond to the points I make, rather than ignoring them and making more rhetorical statements. Also, you've already mentioned this issue of this one judge being imprisoned unjustly a couple years ago; I hope that's not the only evidence of human rights abuses that you can point to during Chavez's 14 year reign. I guess this would be worse than the human rights abuses of Western democracies like the US, such as the summary execution without trial of a US citizen suspected of aiding the enemy, or the illegal imprisonment and torture of thousands?

Regarding the fate of socialist countries, please try to respond to my point that the collapses of almost all failed socialist states in the past have been caused by foreign sabatoge/invasion (generally, by the US). In addition to the countries I mentioned before, I guess we should discuss the following:

-China: An entirely undemocratic government, as it has been from its inception, and thus not a very relevant example when we're talking about the kind of socialism that anyone wants (socialism = means of production in the hands of the people, if they aren't in the hands of the people, that's not socialism). As a major world power it commits its share of human rights abuses (although fewer than the US). It has also, however, probably been pushed towards its totalitarian state by the USA's attempts to destroy it:
1. During the Chinese civil war, the US army cooperated with the defeated Japanese troops and the horrendous Nationalist government to fight the communists. They defended supply lines, gave them airplanes to transport troops/supplies, and bombed communist positions. After the communists win, for decades the US continue harrassing them and conducting a large campaign of sabatoge and air missions in their territory to destabilize them.
2. During the Korean war, the US conducted biological warfare against the Chinese in NE China (as confirmed by an international investigation).

-Russia: Also an entirely undemocratic government from the beginning, and really not at all a good comparison. The commies did, however, manage to convert Russia from a weak backwater country to the second most powerful country in the world. Foreign intervention/history also don't make Russia at all a good test of the viability of the Russian system though:

1914-1917: Russia is completely destroyed by WWI and reduced to the stoneage
Civil War: The civil war is incredibly destructive for the country; capitalist countries including the UK send 10,000s of troops to fight to "strangle the bolshevik state in the cradle." After the bolsheviks win the war, Western newspapers begin regularly publishing propaganda about how communisists eat children and are getting ready to invade Europe.
WWII: Russia takes the brunt of the Nazi offensive, and is once again reduced to rubble. Unlike Western Europe, no one helps them rebuild.
Post WWII: The USA, monstrously wealthy/powerful after the two world wars, openly declares that its mission is to destroy the USSR and any country/anyone that is anything like them. It undergoes a massive campaign of sabatoge/espionage (leading to 100s of US planes being shot down over Russia), propaganda, and geopolitical chess to accomplish this.

-Afghanistan: A democratic socialist government was attempting (very successfully) to redistribute land, educate the peasants, achieve equality for women, etc. The Taliban started a revolution and the USA/its ally Iran provided large amounts of supplies/funding for them. It was our hope (which came true) that the USSR would intervene to try to help their ally and get stuck in their own Vietnam.

Okay sorry about the length of this one, I'll cut myself off there.

[Social_Critic]

Your points are too long. You see, I realize there's no way I'm going to convince you of anything, so I write mostly for the others, and I suspect they prefer shorter posts.

Let's take one point.

please try to respond to my point that the collapses of almost all failed socialist states in the past have been caused by foreign sabatoge/invasion

That's not really true. Dialectic Criticism explains that social forces driven by homo sapiens' nature inexorably drive those who wish to implement communism into the arms of fascism. The process can take a long time (for example in the Soviet Union it took from around 1923 to 2003, about 80 years), or a medium amount of time (in China it took from 1949 to 1999, about 50 years). All of these regimes become economic failures, are ruled by dictatorial oligarchies which mask as "party leaders", "defense forces" or "state protection forces".

Note that such communist >>>fascist regimes always centralize power in the hands of a few, control the media, use secret police to defend the ruling class from the people, and claim that foreign invaders or foreign agents are about to "destabilize the revolution". The language is always the same, and the results are always similar: a fascist dictatorship is installed and it takes a long time for the people to rise again and destroy the oligarchy, which by then has become hereditary and controlled by the second and third generation "princelings".

Thus what you are defending is the rise of dark forces. These are forces which those who advocate communism either don't understand (what i call the innocent), or wish to ride. Those who ride the dark forces are the likes of Diosdado Cabello and Henry Rangel Silva, both of them are military men who wield a lot of power under Chavez, and both of them are super corrupt and truly evil.

[salamis]

This discussion is going to be very difficult if you don't respond to my arguments/lists of historical facts for your consideration, and don't support your arguments with facts.

1. So you are using the Soviet Union and China as the two examples of what inevitably happens to any country that pursues "communism"? To clarify, I assume by "communism" you mean any kind of political system aimed at putting the economic resources of the country in the hands of the people (because Venezuela is clearly not communist, and the government isn't implementing/saying its going to implement communism)? Is there a reason why we should be ignoring the dozens of other countries that have implemented socialism and experienced completely different outcomes from what you've described?

2. So China is one of your two examples of why all countries with any kind of socialist/communist party are doomed to economic failure? I'm not sure I understand; I thought it was currently the most economically successful country in the world...

3. Please try to avoid using heated rhetoric like "dark forces," "facsist dictator," and "truly evil" to make sweeping generalizations about your political opponents. It makes rational analysis more difficult.

[jc_]

salamis,

You can read about the "pase de lista obligatoria" here: http://twicsy.com/i/Uytsvc

It is not compulsory or enshrined in law, but that's how things tend to work.

Could you develop your argument about the increasing crime rates and prison problems a bit more?

It's simple. Poverty reduction has been inadequate, as my study showed, populist states aren't spending enough on poverty reduction. So you still have massive barrios and people running around trying to get money any way they can (the kidnappings is one thing that shows the utter depravity of the impoverished).

I think you will find that the later is a more reliable measure, particularly considering that the vast majority of private media outside and especially inside the country are strongly against the government.

This is in fact, incorrect. Poll questions that ask about ones understanding or expectations of a situation are more accurate than those that ask about experiences or intentions. In fact, if you were to ask the poll question about corruption experiences I find it highly unlikely that anyone with any reasonable sense of self-preservation would answer to the affirmative! They could then be suspects for corruption!

Do you have any stats about the change in corruption levels since Chavez took power?

According to the CPI Venezuela went from 2.5 in 2003 to 1.9 in 2011. Do you dispute that the Fonden fund's money is being lost to graft or that the Aben Pearl was highway robbery from the Venezuelan people?

I was under the impression that Petrocaribe didn't give discounts, but just gave preferential paying conditions to the member countries. Am I wrong?

It gives basically free oil to countries with credit. That's it. The problem is that the credit doesn't have to be paid back for decades (25 years) at very low interest rates. In the short term sure one might argue that it helps the developing states, but it doesn't immediately benefit the Venezuelan people at all. (And what if those states decide to default in 25 years? Then there's no benefit whatsoever.)

You can't average the statistics of Venezuela with those of several other countries, and then use those statistics to talk about Venezuela.

I'm not talking about Venezuela, I'm talking about faux populist states that use anti-imperialism as propaganda and who in reality are not actually anti-imperialists. Venezuela does deals with China. China has more plutocrats than the United States. It's a joke. It's just the peak of hypocrisy. And of course, the US gets blamed, as if these countries don't have their own self-determination. Chavez still blames the US to this day. Meanwhile making deals with Iran, Syria, China, Cuba, etc.

The "objective" measure that they came up with for "government effectiveness" is also pretty laughable to anyone whose taught a political science research methods course (such as myself).

Feel free to provide me another study. I am unconvinced. I don't like the appeal to authority, I prefer studies.

[Social_Critic]

Salami don't assume anything when you do you misfire. Now go read about judge Afiuni. And tell me what you think about Chavez trying to install his crappy communes

The Ab pearl incident is the tip of the iceberg. I personally witnessed pdvsa personnel meeting with foreign agents to discuss using drilling rigs without bidding as per the law. I has to tell the foreigners to leave the Room beca use i had loaned them the conference Room.

[salamis]

JC,

1. I couldn't find anything written confirming the "pase de lista obligatoria" although a lot of people seem to be alleging that it exists. I'll check with some workers I know here when I get the chance to see what they have to say.

2. I don't think lack of poverty reduction can really explain the increasing crime rates. The poverty rate is lower in Venezuela than in many Latin American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, etc.), and reducing extreme poverty by 70% and overall poverty by 50% in 10 years is a very rate of reduction... the fact that it's not the highest rate in the hemisphere (although I still haven't been able to find comparative figures about poverty reduction rates in Brazil/Chile) doesn't really make it seem a likely cause of crime. This is especially true when you consider other factors that make the lives of the poor not all that depraved, such as:

-Relatively low unemployment rate of around 8-8.5%, coupled with highest minimum wage in South America.
-Widely accessible free healthcare.
-Subsidized food and free lunches available in poor areas
-Free university education widely available

That said, this obviously doesn't excuse the government for failing to reduce crime rates, but I really don't know what's causing them to increase.

3. It looks like we're going to just have to disagree about these corruption indicators. Asking people the extent to which corruption affects their lives wouldn't make them fear reprisal, whereas simple "perceptions" about corruption shared by people around the world are obviously highly influenced by what people hear in the media. The Transparency International rating I'm talking about, as well as the Latinobarometer ranking, show Venezuela as being average for Latin America (which is still pretty corrupt).

4. I agree that the Fonden fund is undemocratic and suspicious. Do you have any stats on how much money might be getting lost to it?

5. "I'm not talking about Venezuela, I'm talking about faux populist states that use anti-imperialism as propaganda and who in reality are not actually anti-imperialists. Venezuela does deals with China. China has more plutocrats than the United States. It's a joke. It's just the peak of hypocrisy."

With respect, I'm interested in talking about Venezuela (which is what I believe we're doing, if I'm not mistaken), not the failings of "populist" politicians in Latin America. Furthermore, I have grave doubts about the validity of such classifications, and the degree to which they are relevant here.

6. "Feel free to provide me another study. I am unconvinced. I don't like the appeal to authority, I prefer studies."

I apologize if I was using an appeal to authority there; I also prefer studies, but my point was that the study you referenced should be viewed with a great deal of suspicion because it makes some outlandish claims. Another example, on top of the ones I mentioned before: it claims that the size of the Venezuelan middle class shrunk from 21% of the population to 3%... knowing that the size of the economy has tripled (with the majority of that increase happening in the private sector) in the past 10 years, while inequality has sharply fallen to a gini of 39 from 47 (compared to the current numbers of 56 in Colombia and 52 in Brazil), and unemployment has fallen, isn't that obviously a ludicrous claim?

I'll see if I can find better studies to work with.

[skeptic-1]

Nothing I say can be supported by statistics?

That's strange, because if you re-read my post, half of what I say is actually nothing but statistics/facts. On the other hand I can't find a single established fact in the breadth of your post, although there's an ample amount of caustic rhetoric and personal insults directed at me again for not sharing your opinion. Your implication is that anyone who doesn't share your political viewpoints (note: at least 55.5% of the population, but probably more) is stupid, brainwashed, or corrupt?

Regarding "mother nature" doing away with me and "my brand of socialism," as it has in the past, I can only assume you're referring to the United States? Here's a more complete list of the histories of the countries trying to follow "my brand of socialism":

-Guatemala: Democratic government is overthrown within a couple years by a US organized, financed, and equipped invasion, relying heavily on mass media, silencing of government media, and bribes to the military.
-Cuba: Originally moderate leftist government is forced to quickly ally with USSR after US undergoes an extensive campaign to destroy the government (invasion, economic war, 12 assassination attempts, etc.).
-Vietnam: Country is so completely destroyed after years of US-financed French occupation, US occupation (using chem/bio warfare), and subsequent US-led destabilization (through support to the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia) that I don't think any economic/political system could've saved them from bitter hatred, violence, and economic turmoil.
-Grenada: Democratic government is quickly overthrown by US invasion.
-Iran: Elected hero known for nationalizing the country's oil and introducing social programs is overthrown by a US-backed coup.
-Nicaragua: The regime of socialist revolutionaries that succeeded in overthrowing an oppressive (US-backed) dictatorship and restored democracy collapses after years of US organized/trained/equipped/financed terrorism.

Anyway there's a number I haven't gotten to but I'll try to keep this post length brief. So, in short, your thesis is that everything good that has happened in this country has been caused by high oil prices, and everything bad that has happened in this country is the socialists' fault? Would this apply to all of the social gains/programs that I mentioned in my previous post?

Salimis:

Not living in your adopted country my remarks relate of course to the judgement of the effect of American activity.

One need not be a mental giant to conclude that the bulk of American intervention relates to the perceived (actual) need to control (if possible) those with an abundance of oil as a natural resource. Were one to measure how successful for this purpose the intervention has been a quick review of the position of friendly and non friendly production of this substance finds the larger supply lies in the not so friendly hands.

I have always admired Chavez Mostly for standing up to some of the asses we field and the B.S. stories we tell to explain just why we actually intervene.

Good luck going forward !

[salamis]

Thanks Skeptic.

I would expand on your comment by saying that American interventions have been based on not only the desire for oil, but to serve the interests of a number of industries that pull the strings of US government. Oil is a huge interest, but a majority of its interventions have been in non-oil countries, and rather motivated by other industries, or by a seemingly sincere desire to destroy all alternatives to capitalism (for the benefit of all the ruling industries). I guess the ideological battle I mentioned is considered to already be mostly won by Washington though, since the end of the Cold War, so recently they've been focusing on specific economic ends.

[Social_Critic]

That oil in Venezuela baloney sure is a lot of baloney and US interventionism baloney sure is a huge piece of sausage. Unlike you guys I lived in Venezuela for a long time, and I'm familiar with the inside workings of that corrupt autocracy called Chavism. Invoking US interventionism is something Chavistas use because that's what fascists dictatorships and fascist oligarchies do. The use of the "foreign threat" works sometimes, but from what i can tell most Venezuelans don't buy that crap. However, you guys are trained in the Castro school of "lets blame the yankess for everything", and you can't muster any other arguments for Chavez other than "he's opposed to yankee imperialism". Talk about a made in Cuba line. Where do they train you, in one of those apartment blocks in Koly?

Anyway, Venezuelan Socialism as defined by Chavez is a failure - it relies on the cash flow from oil, and this cash flow is slowly winding down as the the industry decays. The refinery incidents have reduced refining capacity, the projects in the Faja del Orinoco are not economic (this is why Surgutneft quit), and PDVSA is incompetent and becoming pathetic. So how the hell is Venezuelan Socialism going to help the people when the country is heading for economic meltdown? Venezuelan bonds are junk, inflation is the highest in the world, unemployment is going up, capital investment is going down, and the government is incurring a huge amount of debt to plug the holes the best they can. The government is incresdibly corrupt, state owned companies don't work very well, the ports are clogged because Venezuela lives on imports and the bureaucracy is corrupt and incompetent. Price controls are going to be expanded to "fight inflation", this will fail, lead to shortages, and of course inflation will rage because devaluation is coming around the corner.

And on top of that Venezuela is now rated as one of the most violent countries in the world, and the middle and professional classes are fleeing.

What comes next?

The Bolivar is going to devalue [/b ] . the black market rate has gone from about 9 bolivars to the dolar to 12-14 bolivars to the dolar over the last three months.

[b]shortages Price controls and the death of Venezuelan production capacity on all fronts means there will be shortages. These will range from medicine to spare parts for autos, to you name it. It's going to be your typical bare shelves commie environment. I'd like to see you figure your way out of that one.

Government debt will continue to increase there's significant risk of a bond default in 2013, therefore I would stay away from Venezuelan bonds. There's nothing you can do about this either, because the Giordani is a retard, and he's about to crash the economy aganst a concrete wall.

PDVSA will not increase oil production, gasoline will be rationed It is likely gasoline rationing will be required because the Venezuelan government keeps the price almost free, which encourages irrational consumption. Rationing will increase economic inefficiency, and corruption. They have not recovered from the accident at Amuay and have to import hundreds of thousands of gallons of gasoline components to satisfy the internal market.

The human rights situation will get worse and worse The Judge Afiuni case will continue to be driven through Chavez' liver until the son of a bitch releases that poor woman.

The crime rate will continue to be one of the highest in the world The basic problem, as I see it, is Chavez' utter incompetence. He relies on cash from oil to plug the holes, but he's run into a brick wall when it comes to crime, because crime is a function of factors he's unable or unwilling to face. For example, the number of unemployed/underemployed males between 16 and 28 is up. The police forces are corrupt and poorly equipped and trained, but the government is focused on centralizing power, which means leaving local police to flounder. Jails are hellholes. There's almost total impunity because the police and court systems don't work. When you couple all of this with a regime which has been distributing rifles and weapons galore to a bunch of crooks, then you got the most toxic mix possible, and voila, you end up in a country with Libertador Municipality - the area where the seat of government is located, which has a murder rate in excess of 100 per 100,000 persons - makes this Chavista ruled municipality worse than Baghdad or Kabul.

[salamis]

Social Critic,

You have some rather elaborate and interesting predictions for the future of this country. I guess we'll have to check back in a year or two and see how many of those come true.

It turns out that:

Unemployment is actually decreasing. It is currently at 7.3%, compared to 8.2% last year.
http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/121 ... in-october

Foreign investment is actually increasing. It increased by 3.2 billion USD in 2011, and 1.2 billion USD in 2010.
http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ics/2012/191262.htm

Total public debt in Venezuela is at around 34.9% of GDP, compared to 54.2% for Brazil and 43.4% for Colombia. To put that in perspective, Venezuela is the 98th most indebted country in the world out of the 146 we have data for.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 6rank.html

Do you have any statistics regarding this "middle class exodus" from Venezuela? I haven't been able to find any, although Venezuela was at least the 2nd most popular immigration destination in South America in 2010. Furthermore, " according to 2010 World Bank statistics, that year 521,500 Venezuelans were living outside the country, compared to 2,122,300 Colombians, 1,367,300 Brazilians, 1,090,800 Peruvians, and 956,800 Argentinians. "
http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/6999

Quote: " you guys are trained in the Castro school of "lets blame the yankess for everything", and you can't muster any other arguments for Chavez other than 'he's opposed to yankee imperialism'."

Two things:

1. Have you been absent for this entire discussion? I've never mentioned Chavez's resistance to US imperialism as one of his achievements, but have been attempting to have an intelligent conversation with JC in which I've mentioned a large number of other ones.

2. Please, again, try to avoid personal insults, fiery rhetoric, and sweeping statements that are unsupported by facts/utterly false.