[Fernando]

Yes, I think Chávez could be another Castro.

I think it is able to destroy its own country as well. If the oil price stay high I feel he will have time enough to do it.

Of course, every lefty in the world is delighted when they he critizes US, what is enough to consider him a marxist revolutionary. He is not more than another "golpista salvapatrias": another guy who thinks he alone is able to take Venezuela from the 3rd to the 1st world in four days. A very well-Known type in South America.

Chávez performed a military coup against legitimate (and corrupt) Carlos Andrés Pérez government. Instead of firing him he was judged and sent to jail. He used the courts as a tribune to attack the gov.

Court allowed him to be candidate and got the presidency. Since his major achievements are:

- Caracas downtown is a chaos.
- When I was in Caracas, every TV has to broadcast president Chávez's program "Aló Presidente".
- Chávez has promoted nationalism, against spanish, portuguese, colombians and poorest ecuatorians inmigrants (most of them in the country since 1950s).
- Venezuela is on the edge of a civil war.
- Crime is in their highest point.
- Economy is near to bankruptcy despite highest oil prices in recent history.

Nevertheless, Chávez has played very well in a baseball game Cuba-Venezuela, which is (ironically) the main sport in both countries.

I don't think Chávez will promote international terrorism (he has not a brain to do it), but I think he won't do very much if a terrorist is in his territory.

[Terca]

I don't know what kind of man Chavez is, never met him. But I do find it ominous, and interesting, that Chavez is being accused, not only of consorting with Castro the communist, but of being likely soft on terror, perhaps, it's hinted, he will hide or is hiding terrorists. T

his sounds like the build up to another Guatemala, Chile, Honduras, or Nicaraugua. And no matter what kind of man Chavez is, he's better for Venezuela than what we did to those countries in our so called fight against communism. So now we're going to overthrow democratically elected governments in the name of the war on terror instead of in the name of the cold war.

How convenient. Ever read a book called 1984?

[Wilhelm]

Venezuela will never be another Cuba. Chavez will fall. If the referendum does not pass, they will take him out by force. Trust me, he will not get past 2004.

smashthestate, about FARC killing bourgeois who aren't people to you, firstget your facts straight. Let's see, one time one whole town hid in the church to not be killed in the crossfire, and the FARC squad in there launched a gas cylinder (they use them all the time) against the church. They killed more than 100 people. Are they your 'bourgeois pigs'? They were ordinary folk. What's your excuse now, the 'opiate of the masses'? Communism is stupid enough. Now you'll start justifying murder with it?

But I digress, back to the article on Chavez. It is extremely biased, Chavez is a dick, but is not doing the following:

- Creating a Cuban-style socialist state in Venezuela
- Turning Venezuela into a base for international terrorism
- Making a paramilitary army out of Bolivarion circles. The Bolivarian Circles do sports and cultural activities, all focused on Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution, nothing else.

The statements made in those articles are preposterous. It is plain slander. Chavez is helping FARC, it has been proven. But he certainly isn't turning Venezuela into a hub of international terrorism.

[bach]

Chavez will fall. If the referendum does not pass, they will take him out by force. Trust me, he will not get past 2004.

Thats the same thing people were saying a year ago, they were all wrong, thats because all the left think thanks are focused on keeping venezuela as a new experiment, basically because Venezulea is a relatevely rich country.

Besides Chavez is holding pretty well, he sure isnt given up any soon, even thought the referendum has been approved, however he is trying to get into the balot for 2006.

"Those who cast the balots decide nothing, those who count them decide everything"

I dont like Chavez, I like political struggle, sometimes it makes peoples lifes better.

[abraxas]

I dont like Chavez, I like political struggle, sometimes it makes peoples lifes better.

I hope this was only a joke, since I'd love to hear the millions of cases to which this applies.
I can just imagine the hundeds of people that were cheering when dictators have risen, not knowing if they would still be alive the next day.
If it is true that political struggle is inevitable, in the long run it benefits no one.

Apart now. Venezuela cannot become another Cuba. The USA would not have second thoughts about attacking Venezuela, justifying a military action in the name of democracy and anti-terrorism, if ever, Chavez was to oppose the USA's economical interests.

Cuba is what it is now, beacuse it wad backed by the USSR. The USA was not willing to attack a country armed with nuclear missiles, and opted on a different way of debilitating Cuba: economically.

[clanko]

The notion that Chavez will not get passed 2004 when the masses are significantly with him is ridiculous. Wilhelm, the reason Castro exists today, is because he has popular support ( not full ). If there was an air of anti-castro feeling in cuba which could be manipulated the US would pounce on it like nothing else. Venezuela's mini social revolucionaria has educated and mobilsed the working classes, of that there is little doubt. The idea that Chavez could be removed is ludicrous. This is an extreme case of rich vs poor. When this happens politicall. Stratification turns into weight and the Proles beat the bigs.

[Wilhelm]

I'm not saying that Chavez does not have popular support. What I'm saying is that his opponents will find a way to beat him, even if the referendum does not pass.

[Forge]

My thoughts on Chavez: I believe he is not too wise, but smart enough to know that most Venezuelans were fed up with a long line of corrupt politicians who did nothing for the nation's poor or indigenous citizens. Hence, his election and the failed coup that followed.

Trouble is, he chose Castro as a role model which hasn't scored him any brownie points in the West. I personally think Chavez could care less, but the Venezuelans who are against him have no need of a Communist government taking over, much less a U.S. intervention at a time when we Yanks aren't exactly held in high regard in Latin America.

Castro knows this, and is playing the part of mentor to Chavez' protege as it best suits the Cubans. But as stated elsewhere, Venezuela has oil, and whatever future stance Chavez undertakes against the U.S. places the country at further risk.

On the subject of free press and the networks: I don't think Bienvenidos is being aired over there anymore. Any of my South American friends here could confirm this. Not a good sign for the anti-Chavez people, since that show nicely satirized any sort of government discrepancy.

[CoffeeCake]

Its spreading, Lula (in Brazil) will soon be seen as "The next Castro"

Perhaps the old Communists are happy now

On a serious note, Chavez bought some MiG's and Mi-24's from some of the former Eastern Bloc countries (Estonia, DDR, and otheres). His embargo against the US is one of the reasons we are in Iraq right now. The failed coup d'etat really pissed him off, and decided to get even with Bush and the CIA. Venezuelans seem to be happy with him, thats why there hasn't been any sort of popular uprising AGAINST him.

More or less, I think for now, his military support his going towards FARC, and establishing a friendly government to the West (Columbia). His southern flank is pretty much covered (Lula in Brazil). South America is seeing a resurgence in these former Cold War politics, as for Russia's reaction, we can only wait and see.

International terrorism? The last time I checked, Venezuela wasn't induated with mosques and Muslim people. Whoever wrote that is full of conservative crap. In fact, the first Sunni Islamic group that was first funded was by the CIA, to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan, so who are the real supporters of international terrorism.

[Gothmog]

More on Chávez "dictatorship"

U.S. Political Attacks on Venezuela Continue

By Mark Weisbrot

The Miami Herald - Dec. 20, 2004 http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/ne ... 898.htm?1c

The recent round of Venezuela-bashing from the U.S.
State Department, Washington-based foreign policy organizations, and some newspaper editorial boards is symptomatic of a broader problem. And it's not Venezuela's problem: it's ours.

Last week the government of Venezuela decided, after a
vote of its elected General Assembly and the approval
of the executive, to add 12 new justices to its 20-
member Supreme Court. Human Rights Watch denounced the
move as a "severe blow to judicial independence" and
the Miami Herald said Venezuela "stands at the brink of
being an elected dictatorship."

These allegations are unfounded. Imagine, if you can,
that a group of military officers in the United States overthrew our elected President, dissolved our elected Congress and Supreme Court, and abolished the Constitution. Now imagine that democracy is restored but the Supreme Court rules that the officers who kidnapped the President and overthrew the government cannot be tried for any crime. That is what happened in Venezuela.

Our Congress would certainly use its constitutional
powers to impeach that Supreme Court. So it should not
be surprising that Venezuela's General Assembly, where pro-government parties hold a slight majority, would do the same thing by legally "packing" the court with new judges.

Personally, I favor an independent judiciary. But
Venezuela -- like much of Latin America -- has never
had such a thing, and to pretend that it did and is now
losing it, is quite misleading.

Such exaggerations, many of which appear almost daily
in the press, have created an astoundingly false
impression of Venezuela among Americans. Most Americans
think of the country is some kind of quasi-dictatorship
"ruled" by the "authoritarian" Hugo Chavez. In fact
President Chavez has considerably less power than our
own president.

Freedom of speech, the press, assembly and other
political freedoms prevail. In fact these compare
favorably to the United States, where journalists are
being thrown in jail for refusing to reveal their
sources, and broadcast stations are fined for violating
decency standards. Venezuela's mass media is possibly
the most virulently (and often dishonestly) anti-
government media in the entire world.

Most of the media is explicitly part of the opposition
and supported the April 2002 coup.

Yet in six years of Chavez' presidency the press has
not been censored. And despite the outcry about the
recently passed "Law of Social Responsibility in Radio
and Television" -- which included some valid
criticisms -- it is doubtful that any censorship will
occur under the present administration.

No reputable human rights organization would claim that Venezuela under Chavez is less democratic that under previous governments, or compares unfavorably in terms of human rights or democratic freedoms to the rest of Latin America.

On the positive side, even Chavez' opponents concede
that millions of poor Venezuelans -- the majority --
now have access to health care, education, literacy
programs, land titles, and credit for the first time,
as a result of the government's social programs.

Sadly, the biggest threats to Venezuela's democracy
still come from Washington, which has funded and allied
itself with the anti-democratic leaders of Venezuela's opposition, including supporters of the failed coup. This funding and support has been acknowledged by the U.S. State Department. The National Endowment for Democracy, which is funded by our Congress, has also funneled millions of dollars to opposition groups. And recently-released documents from the CIA show that the Bush Administration had detailed advanced knowledge of the coup but lied about what happened: the White House tried to convince the press and other countries that it was not a coup at all, but rather a legitimate seizure of power by "pro-democracy" forces.

After failing to overthrow the government by means of a military coup and an economically devastating oil strike, the opposition turned to a recall referendum last August. They lost overwhelmingly. Although the vote was certified by the Carter Center and the Organization of American States, most of the opposition
-- including the media -- has not accepted the results.
And Washington seems intent on regime change, currently imposing several types of economic sanctions on Venezuela, despite the fact that it is a democracy and poses no security threat to anyone.

So expect to hear a lot of criticism of Venezuela in
the next few years -- much of it exaggerated,
dishonest, and false.

===

Mark Weisbrot is co-Director of the Center for Economic
and Policy Research, in Washington, DC (www.cepr.net).

[Fernando]

The text of the Law for Social Responsability on Radio and TV:

http://www.asambleanacional.gov.ve/ns2/leyes.asp?id=532

A workmate of mine (who is married to a venezolean citizen) has returned from a trip to Venezuela. His opinion is that Venezuela is slowly slipping through Third World. As I have posted before, I wouldn't say Chávez is a bloody dictator (yet) but

- He took his country with a cheap oil and he has now the oil price at as much as 40 dollars. However the bolivar has plummetted.

- Crime has risen. Caracas has ever been a very dangerous city (which I checked when I was in 2000). Nowadays the downtown is not more than a forest when you have no security.

- I simply deny this comment: "millions of poor Venezuelans -- the majority -- now have access to health care, education, literacy
programs, land titles, and credit for the first time,
as a result of the government's social programs."

- Division: The people is divided. About 40% of people is strongly anti-Chávez while 60% is strongly pro.

Just for fun: As everybody knows, Chávez performs an "interview" program (Aló, Presidente) when he shows its pathetic manners once a week. The program is compulsorily broadcasted by every general TV channel.

This is the trascript of the 200th program:

Just an excerpt (page 9 of 87):(Translation is mine):

http://www.gobiernoenlinea.ve/docMgr/sh ... te_200.pdf

President Chávez: Where is Teresa Maniglia? Where is Teresita? Teresita was in Radio Nacional. Teresita, can you remember what time did I arrive? were there many people? Did many things happen? Don't you remember details?

Teresa Maniglia: How couldn't I? This first program was a deep emotion for all of us. You arrived very early, ten to nine.

PC: It was at nine, it was in the morning.

TM: It was at 9, one hour long.

PC: Tell me, Teresita, how long the program was?

TM: Exactly one hour.

PC: No!

TM: Yes, sir.

PC: I can't believe it, this is a crime.

TM: President, until June, 27th (5th program) you had an ahour program, since then you go two hours, and the longer is 100th, 7 hours 35 minutes.

PC: This was done in [mount]El Ávila, wasn't?

TM: In El Ávila.

Assistants: Applauses.

PC: 7 hours 35 minutes, just imagine it.

Assistants: Applauses.

...

This guy is governing a 25 million people country.

[Gothmog]

A workmate of mine (who is married to a venezolean citizen) has returned from a trip to Venezuela. His opinion is that Venezuela is slowly slipping through Third World. As I have posted before, I wouldn't say Chávez is a bloody dictator (yet) but

-Venezuela, like the rest of South America, was always third world, so it cannot be slipping through Third world.

He took his country with a cheap oil and he has now the oil price at as much as 40 dollars. However the bolivar has plummetted

-Irrelevant, a weaker currency actually can be beneficial to a third world country withouth ability to print hard currency, and most of economic troubles are result of right wing sabotage, not of mismanagement at home.

Crime has risen. Caracas has ever been a very dangerous city (which I checked when I was in 2000). Nowadays the downtown is not more than a forest when you have no security.

-Correct

I simply deny this comment: "millions of poor Venezuelans -- the majority -- now have access to health care, education, literacy
programs, land titles, and credit for the first time,
as a result of the government's social programs."

-Why? To the extent I know there were a great expansion of social programs under Chavez.

Division: The people is divided. About 40% of people is strongly anti-Chávez while 60% is strongly pro.

-Latin America is deeply divided between rich and poor, what happened is that, under Chavez, the poor also have a voice in the government, resulting in more political polarization. This is actually good for the country.
-And btw, I see nothing wrong with that law of Social responsability. It actually improves pluralism in the Venezuelan TV.

[Fernando]

-Venezuela, like the rest of South America, was always third world, so it cannot be slipping through Third world.

It depends on what you consider as "3rd World", but I would say that Chile or Argentina are not Ethiopia or Haiti.

-Irrelevant, a weaker currency actually can be beneficial to a third world country withouth ability to print hard currency, and most of economic troubles are result of right wing sabotage, not of mismanagement at home.

In a sense you are right. Current US dollar devaluation is being provoked to a point by US government. But I wouldn't say it is "irrelevant". If you are selling expensive products it is difficult to devaluate your currency (Japanese or German case, until 90s).

Main Venezuelan export (oil) has multiplied its price by 2/3 in a couple of years. Why the bolivar is a shrinking currency? About right wing sabotage: the only (imputed) influence of right wing is in the PDVESA strike. A strike is usually performed by the workers, not by the capitalist elite.

Moreover, real state prices are going down during the last years. Do you really think right wing is interested in destroying Venezuelan economy?

I think most of the programs are just propaganda.

To the extent I know there were a great expansion of social programs under Chavez.

My sources are informal, but they say it takes the same to get education or food or medical aid now than in CAP(Carlos Andrés Pérez)'s times.

Latin America is deeply divided between rich and poor, what happened is that, under Chavez, the poor also have a voice in the government, resulting in more political polarization. This is actually good for the country.

I wouldn't say polarization is good "per se". I agree with you that the difference between rich and poor in SAmerica is too big, but the solution is not Hitler (völkisch), Castro, Perón,... all of them claiming they are the voice of the middle German, Cuban,...

[redstarline]

[Wilhelm edit] Please do not derail discussions in this forum. Thank you.

[Gothmog]

It depends on what you consider as "3rd World", but I would say that Chile or Argentina are not Ethiopia or Haiti.

-Venezuela is fat better than Ethiopia and Haiti, and as far as human development is of concern, is better than Brazil. Venezuela´s economy grew by 10% last year, better than any other Latin American country. Economy still didn´t return to pre 1998 levels, as result of two years of political instability.

Main Venezuelan export (oil) has multiplied its price by 2/3 in a couple of years. Why the bolivar is a shrinking currency? About right wing sabotage: the only (imputed) influence of right wing is in the PDVESA strike. A strike is usually performed by the workers, not by the capitalist elite

-You miss the fact that the strike was largely made by the management and higher rank workers of PDVSA. Also consider that in Venezuela, PDVSA workers are a privileged strata inside the society as a whole. The capitalist elite, however, did a lot in an attempt to cripple the economy, by locking up their business. The so called "general strike" was essentially a lockout. It crippled the Venezuelan economy. GDP contracted by 33% in first trimester of 2003. The Judiciary of Venezuela declared the strike illegal and still there was no restoration of production. It took only a wave of demissions among PDVSA employees that production was restored to pre strike levels. If this is not sabotage, then I don´t know what is sabotage. And obviously there were other lockouts and a cop attempt in 2002, all of them with disastrous consequences for Venezuela.

I wouldn't say polarization is good "per se". I agree with you that the difference between rich and poor in SAmerica is too big, but the solution is not Hitler (völkisch), Castro, Perón,... all of them claiming they are the voice of the middle German, Cuban,...

-I don´t agree those comparison is fair. Up to know Chavez has been showing an extraordinary tolerance for a criminal opposition and a deep respect for democracy. He already submitted himself to four extra elections and won all of them. There is no censorship in Venezuela, despite the involvement of private media with a coup attempt. There is a multiparty system and no party was outlawed, despite taking part in coup attempts. What would happened if a private TV network took part in a military coup in Spain? His owners would lose immediately lose the public concession (don´t remember TV are public concessions). This didn´t happen in Venezuela. If we were in Castros´s Cuba or Pinochet´s Chile, a few thousand executions would have already restored order in the country. If we were in NAZI Germany or Franco´s Spain...who knows what would have happened. Remember that for much...much less, President Reagan fired ALL traffic controlers in USA. You mentioned Carlos Andres Peres, a mass murderer that ordered his police to shot in demonstrators killing hundreds of them, and a robber that was impeached due to corrution. Do you really think things are worse?

[Rinty]

- When I was in Caracas, every TV has to broadcast president Chávez's program "Aló Presidente".

This is simply untrue. The state own only one TV station which has a weekly (sometimes less often) broadcast by Chavez office (not always him). This is to counteract the main channels, all privately owned, and all of whom campaign for the opposition against Chavez. The commercial channels were all party to the coup attempt and broadcast warped reports of what was happeming (as did Fox).

The two conflicting statements made on Fox by fleischer were shameful, it was clear from his first statement that he was aware of the coup attempt and tailored his broadcast based on the plans of the coup rather than what was actually happening on the ground. This proved to me that he was party to the plans. His second statement after the attempt failed was embarrassing.

There is an excellent programme braodcast on BBC4 last year with footage direct from the day of the coup, it was made I think by an Irish presenter. It exposes the lies put forward by Venezualan and US TV stations about the shootings at the protest march and is an incredible film as the reporter was inside both Chavezs Government and the short lived new american backed govt., he was there when the coup collapsed and the film witnesses first hand the return of Chavez. I would reccomend that anyone who can watch it.

Also worth a watch is "Tommy goes Caracas" a short film made by Glasgows Camcorder Guerillas covering the visit to Venezuala by Tommy Sheridan of the Scottish Socialist Party.

[Messiah]

His second statement after the attempt failed was embarrassing.

What did he say?