- 22 Jun 2017 22:09
#14817543
I think it comes own to the fact that the SDF + US strikes is a lot more formidable force than second and third grade SAA units and loyalist militias that Damascus usually staffs the Tadmur theater with. The area south of Ayn Issa has been one mounting the heaviest resistance to the SDF ever since it captured Tall Abyad, they only made major progress when the Raqqa offensive started for real and the US bombed the shit out of everything.
That, and consider the fact that the SAA could have advanced much faster to Arak and beyond, but the memory of Ithriyah-Tabqa offensive still stings so they are being extra careful to secure their flanks, which is a good thing.
Yeah but there's a thing called nuance, as I said it's not a black and white choice. The US can choose both, it can also abandon the SDF but also punish Turkey in some way that it may not be keen on experiencing, but that at the same time won't be so overtly humiliating that the government would have to literally cut ties with the US as a result.
I mean, Turkey could have already rolled into Manbij or Tell Abyad, no? And yet they had to make a deal with Syria and Russia to take territory from ISIL just in order for it to NOT fall into SDF's hands, since then they'd have major diplomatic complications actually breaking the SDF corridor since it's allied with the US. I'm pretty sure Russia and Syria would rather Turkey attacked the SDF than ISIL, since also for the SAA,grabbing ISIL territory is a-ok, unlike the SDF.
Anyway, we may get our answer soon enough, there are rumors all over the place of an "Afrin offensive" by Euphrates Shield with heavy Turkish backing about to take place after Ramadan. If this happens (regardless of if they only try to reclaim Tall Rifaat and Menagh or if they actually try to take over Afrin canton proper which is very unlikely considering the roflworthiness of ES) it'll also be quite telling - why would they attack an isolated and neutered Afrin and not Manbij or the bulk of SDF territory to the east? If the US isn't an issue for them?
Diversity within Oneness.
pikachu wrote:I've thought about that as well, but that would not explain the continued stubborn ISIS presense in the far away desert plains and mountains of central Syria. Are those "local fighters" as well? Desert children, born and raised? Seems obvious to me that if the defense of Raqqa was the priority, those local desert men would have been pulled out long ago. And it's more than just Raqqa city too, they are losing a fair chunk of the fertile Euphrates river valley with it.
I think it comes own to the fact that the SDF + US strikes is a lot more formidable force than second and third grade SAA units and loyalist militias that Damascus usually staffs the Tadmur theater with. The area south of Ayn Issa has been one mounting the heaviest resistance to the SDF ever since it captured Tall Abyad, they only made major progress when the Raqqa offensive started for real and the US bombed the shit out of everything.
That, and consider the fact that the SAA could have advanced much faster to Arak and beyond, but the memory of Ithriyah-Tabqa offensive still stings so they are being extra careful to secure their flanks, which is a good thing.
I don't really see how that follows. If I am responsible for Turkish policy and I know for sure that the US would not chose SDF over Turkey, then my hand is free to attack SDF should I desire to do so.
Yeah but there's a thing called nuance, as I said it's not a black and white choice. The US can choose both, it can also abandon the SDF but also punish Turkey in some way that it may not be keen on experiencing, but that at the same time won't be so overtly humiliating that the government would have to literally cut ties with the US as a result.
I mean, Turkey could have already rolled into Manbij or Tell Abyad, no? And yet they had to make a deal with Syria and Russia to take territory from ISIL just in order for it to NOT fall into SDF's hands, since then they'd have major diplomatic complications actually breaking the SDF corridor since it's allied with the US. I'm pretty sure Russia and Syria would rather Turkey attacked the SDF than ISIL, since also for the SAA,grabbing ISIL territory is a-ok, unlike the SDF.
Anyway, we may get our answer soon enough, there are rumors all over the place of an "Afrin offensive" by Euphrates Shield with heavy Turkish backing about to take place after Ramadan. If this happens (regardless of if they only try to reclaim Tall Rifaat and Menagh or if they actually try to take over Afrin canton proper which is very unlikely considering the roflworthiness of ES) it'll also be quite telling - why would they attack an isolated and neutered Afrin and not Manbij or the bulk of SDF territory to the east? If the US isn't an issue for them?
Diversity within Oneness.