Syrian war thread - Page 127 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Political issues and parties in the nations of the Middle East.

Moderator: PoFo Middle-East Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please. This is an international political discussion forum moderated in English, so please post in English only. Thank you.
User avatar
By roxunreal
#14817543
pikachu wrote:I've thought about that as well, but that would not explain the continued stubborn ISIS presense in the far away desert plains and mountains of central Syria. Are those "local fighters" as well? Desert children, born and raised? :) Seems obvious to me that if the defense of Raqqa was the priority, those local desert men would have been pulled out long ago. And it's more than just Raqqa city too, they are losing a fair chunk of the fertile Euphrates river valley with it.


I think it comes own to the fact that the SDF + US strikes is a lot more formidable force than second and third grade SAA units and loyalist militias that Damascus usually staffs the Tadmur theater with. The area south of Ayn Issa has been one mounting the heaviest resistance to the SDF ever since it captured Tall Abyad, they only made major progress when the Raqqa offensive started for real and the US bombed the shit out of everything.

That, and consider the fact that the SAA could have advanced much faster to Arak and beyond, but the memory of Ithriyah-Tabqa offensive still stings so they are being extra careful to secure their flanks, which is a good thing.

I don't really see how that follows. If I am responsible for Turkish policy and I know for sure that the US would not chose SDF over Turkey, then my hand is free to attack SDF should I desire to do so.


Yeah but there's a thing called nuance, as I said it's not a black and white choice. The US can choose both, it can also abandon the SDF but also punish Turkey in some way that it may not be keen on experiencing, but that at the same time won't be so overtly humiliating that the government would have to literally cut ties with the US as a result.

I mean, Turkey could have already rolled into Manbij or Tell Abyad, no? And yet they had to make a deal with Syria and Russia to take territory from ISIL just in order for it to NOT fall into SDF's hands, since then they'd have major diplomatic complications actually breaking the SDF corridor since it's allied with the US. I'm pretty sure Russia and Syria would rather Turkey attacked the SDF than ISIL, since also for the SAA,grabbing ISIL territory is a-ok, unlike the SDF.

Anyway, we may get our answer soon enough, there are rumors all over the place of an "Afrin offensive" by Euphrates Shield with heavy Turkish backing about to take place after Ramadan. If this happens (regardless of if they only try to reclaim Tall Rifaat and Menagh or if they actually try to take over Afrin canton proper which is very unlikely considering the roflworthiness of ES) it'll also be quite telling - why would they attack an isolated and neutered Afrin and not Manbij or the bulk of SDF territory to the east? If the US isn't an issue for them?
User avatar
By pikachu
#14817628
I think it comes own to the fact that the SDF + US strikes is a lot more formidable force than second and third grade SAA units and loyalist militias that Damascus usually staffs the Tadmur theater with.
Absolutely should not matter. SDF could literally be Gods delivering divine punishment and SAA a bunch of children armed with airsoft guns. If defense of Raqqa+valley was the significant priority, ISIS would have still retreated from the desert a long time ago in order to bolster the Raqqa defenses and let the children take over it. In other words, the relative strength of SDF versus SAA should make absolutely no impact on where ISIS chooses to retreat and where it chooses to fight.

it can also abandon the SDF but also punish Turkey in some way that it may not be keen on experiencing
Yes, such as what? Why don't you get down to specifics and tell me what it is that you think the US would be willing to do that would actually deter Turkey from attacking all on its own. (bolded to discourage strawmen)

I mean, Turkey could have already rolled into Manbij or Tell Abyad, no?
Apparently not if it has to deal with consequences from the US, Russia, Iran, and their allies (Syria and Iraq) all at once. If it's just the US while the others would support it, that's a different story.
Last edited by pikachu on 23 Jun 2017 10:39, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By roxunreal
#14817934
pikachu wrote:Absolutely should not matter. SDF could literally be Gods delivering divine punishment and SAA a bunch of children armed with airsoft guns. If defense of Raqqa+valley was the significant priority, ISIS would have still retreated from the desert a long time ago in order to bolster the Raqqa defenses and let the children take over it. In other words, the relative strength of SDF versus SAA should make absolutely no impact on where ISIS chooses to retreat and where it chooses to fight.


Yeah but we don't really know how many forces ISIL has either in the desert or in Raqqa. It could have many in Raqqa and still have its ass kicked by airstrike and SDF, and it can have relatively few near Tadmur and hold out against the SAA for a long time due to mountains or poor SAA units operating there. What it's not going to do is pull out everyone it has from an area it can still defend and has done so fruitfully for a long time to a area where it's going to lose no matter the reinforcements, since it's directly in the crosshairs of the US and SDF right now. It's not a black and white all or nothing choice.

Yes, such as what? Why don't you get down to specifics and tell me what it is that you think the US would be willing to do that would actually deter Turkey from attacking all on its own. (bolded to discourage strawmen)


Cancel military trade and/or strategic projects, impose sanctions on individuals and/or companies, as could other NATO countries.

What do you think Russia would do, start a war with Turkey if it took over Manbij or Tall Abyad?
What would Iran do lol, it needs Turkish trade, as does Turkey. The fact that they're literally fighting a proxy war against each other hasn't dented their relations in other areas in the slightest. And Iran would be glad to see marxist Kurds crushed anyway.

Apparently not if it has to deal with consequences from the US, Russia, Iran, and their allies (Syria and Iraq) all at once. If it's just the US while the others would support it, that's a different story.


It has literally invaded the country with rebels that are far more hostile to the government, with the government and Russia's blessing.

It could have also kicked YPG's ass when they connected the cantons and all the way until the Russian intervention in 2015, YPG was already a major force by summer o that year.
User avatar
By Typhoon
#14818059
Two cents ....

pikachu wrote:I never really understood though why the IS seems to have prioritized the defense of Deir Ez Zor province over Raqqa, the latter being the capital after all, but we have what we have.


A number of reasons I would guess and a good number of them outside of IS control, they probably would have wanted a more ordered retreat along the lines you suggest but were not given the luxury of doing so.

Due to the manner of their expansion and in my view need to continually expand IS ended up getting spread between two/three main groupings with tenuous links between them (Iraq, North and then perhaps South Syria). To efficiently move resources between these groups due to the poor communication/ infrastructure on the Syrian/Iraqi border IS must have felt it had to maintain its position in DZ to avoid being cut in two. The risk of this increased from late 2015 (before IS was isolated from the Turkish border) with SDF advances south leading to the capture of Al-Shaddadi. The SDF focus moved back north to their cantons but it must have been a real scare for IS at the time, a straight cut down through the center of their territory.

Additionally the SAA presence in DZ is something that IS was never able to resolve, despite the huge amount of resources they have thrown at the defenses over the years. The risk of a sudden increase in government forces opening a new front to the rear must have played havoc for IS commanders, the governments Stalingrad like approach to DZ has paid dividends.

As such I feel JohnRawls point on the need to maintain a line of communication is a good bet. Today it seems hard to justify a lot of IS territorial holdings, they cannot advance, cannot retreat and worse perhaps cannot surrender.

roxunreal wrote:The US can choose both, it can also abandon the SDF but also punish Turkey in some way that it may not be keen on experiencing, but that at the same time won't be so overtly humiliating that the government would have to literally cut ties with the US as a result.


The problem for the US is that I do not feel that Turkeys relationship with the Kurd's will allow a have your cake and eat it outcome for the US. The idea of an independent Kurdish entity in northern Syria is intolerable to Turkey, once the common enemy of IS is put-down Turkey will start working on the Kurd's with renewed fervor, perhaps sooner. The US cannot act harshly against Turkey because it has to maintain NATO unity (though Turkey will not leave NATO because of Greece the purchase of S-400 from Russia (initially China) highlights the risk for the US here).

The smart bet for the Kurd's is to play along with the Syrian government, since Iran/Russia/Assad are the only ones who will be able to moderate Turkey through a political arrangement i.e. Kurdish territories remain as part of and are governed by the Syrian state. I mean if the US does not even seem able to keep the GCC together these days they are not going to keep Turkey from the Kurd's throats either.
By skinster
#14818172
Seymour Hersh: Trump‘s Red Line
On April 6, United States President Donald Trump authorized an early morning Tomahawk missile strike on Shayrat Air Base in central Syria in retaliation for what he said was a deadly nerve agent attack carried out by the Syrian government two days earlier in the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun. Trump issued the order despite having been warned by the U.S. intelligence community that it had found no evidence that the Syrians had used a chemical weapon.

"The available intelligence made clear that the Syrians had targeted a jihadist meeting site on April 4 using a Russian-supplied guided bomb equipped with conventional explosives. Details of the attack, including information on its so-called high-value targets, had been provided by the Russians days in advance to American and allied military officials in Doha, whose mission is to coordinate all U.S., allied, Syrian and Russian Air Force operations in the region.

"Some American military and intelligence officials were especially distressed by the president's determination to ignore the evidence. 'None of this makes any sense,' one officer told colleagues upon learning of the decision to bomb. 'We KNOW that there was no chemical attack ... the Russians are furious. Claiming we have the real intel and know the truth ... I guess it didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump.'
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/art ... -Line.html
#14818231
thats politics

pretty much same thing happen in the Israeli Arab conflict
nobody give a shit about people dying elswehere but everybody gets hysterical when some criminal (that somehow always being portrayed as innocent) being shot in the west bank
#14818273
Iran basically has free reign across Syria under a Russian umbrella. Massive boost to their ambitions over the region. It comes as no surprise that Israel is literally shaking and wringing its hands,, taking feeble pot shots that affect nothing.
  • 1
  • 125
  • 126
  • 127
  • 128
  • 129
  • 205

It is implausible that the IDF could not or would[…]

Moving on to the next misuse of language that sho[…]

@JohnRawls What if your assumption is wrong??? […]

There is no reason to have a state at all unless w[…]