[late]

There is a general feeling among those that are not goofballs, that Israel will not accept peace.

That means they will soon reach Nazi levels of "civilian punishment", and once the plague gets rolling, the death toll will likely reach a 100 Palestinians dead for ONE Israeli.

Or more..

If you have an interest in foreign relations, you will have noticed there is usually considerable flexibility in relations, there has to be.

But Israel has treated us with contempt for over a generation. With Netanyahu, it's gotten worse.

There are a ton of variables, but the bottom line is that I think Israel has gone too far. I expect their war crimes will get the EU to reduce their relations, and we will likely follow their lead.

This is something I expected would happen with the next generation. You can see that the American young have little tolerance for the mass slaughter that's happening while Gaza gets turned into a moonscape. I imagine cholera won't do much to help.

So the end result will likely a growing international isolation, and implacable hatred from much of the Muslim world.

This is a political/diplomatic problem, making peace always is, unless you're talking genocide.

And that's what they've been working towards for half a century.

I wish I had something else to say, some faint ray of hope. But like us, they will win the war, and lose the peace..

[wat0n]

I actually think it's the opposite. If and when Hamas is removed, Netanyahu will be voted out (going by Israel's election polling) and there will be no way for Israeli irredentists to say something like "why bother making peace, if Hamas still rules Gaza? They will never make peace with us!".

Furthermore, the broader Sunni-Shia conflict provides incentives to the Sunni Arab states to pressure the Palestinian moderates on giving up on things like the right to return, and settle for compensation instead. It also provides them incentives to sign peace with Israel directly, and aid the Palestinian moderates in state building including by sending peacekeepers. This idea seems to have traction within Israel:

Poll: Most Israelis would back US plan tying Palestinian state to freeing hostages, Saudi normalization
By JACOB MAGID FOLLOW
22 January 2024, 8:21 pm

A slight majority of Israelis would back a US plan for ending the war that would see the release of all remaining hostages, Saudi Arabia agree to normalize relations with Israel, and Jerusalem agree to the eventual establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state, a new poll indicates.

In the survey conducted by the Midgam Institute on behalf of the dovish Geneva Initiative, 51.3 percent of respondents say they would back such an agreement, while 28.9% said they would oppose it, and 19.8% said they didn’t know.

Support was predictably higher among centrist and left-wing voters, with 73% of them backing such a deal, but 39% of right-wing voters also said they would support it.

The results fly in the face of arguments senior Israeli officials have been making since the war, insisting that the public is in no place to discuss a two-state solution following Hamas’s October 7 terror onslaught.

Netanyahu reportedly rejected a proposal presented earlier this month by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that would have seen Saudi Arabia take part in the reconstruction of Gaza after the war, along with four other Arab countries. It would also have entailed agreeing to normalize ties with Israel, though on the condition that Jerusalem agree to take irreversible steps creating a pathway to an eventual Palestinian state.

Respondents were also asked whether they would prefer IDF soldiers remain in Gaza three year from now. Fifty percent of participants say they would not want such a situation, while 32% said they would want the IDF to still remain in Gaza that far down the line.

Participants were also asked whether their attitude toward the United States has changed since October 7.

Thirty-eight percent say their attitude toward the US has not changed and remains positive; 26.3% say their attitude changed for the better; 17.1% say it changed for the worse; 7.2% claimed that their attitude has not changed and remains negative; 11.1% say they are unsure.

In total, roughly 65% of respondents expresses a positive attitude toward the US since October 7.

Five hundred Israelis participated in the survey that has a 4.4% margin of error.

The Israeli right's credibility has rested on saying "hey, we can't solve the conflict, only manage it - and we are good at managing it since Israel is safe". The October 7 massacre completely delegitimized this idea, Israelis don't just blame Palestinian terrorists for it but also their current government and PM, and it may even be worse for Israel's right if the ensuing commission of inquiry concludes that the extra deployment of soldiers to the West Bank's settlements contributed to the slow initial response to the October 7th attack, along with the whole judicial reform saga.

If we go by history, Israel's Labor party lost its hegemony within Israel in the 1970s precisely because of the surprise attack that began the Yom Kippur War. I don't see why can't the same happen this time around since this lack of competence is at least as bad as the one of 1973.

Of course, nobody can say it will be an easy process or that the US won't need to pressure Israel just like its Arab allies will pressure the Palestinians - again, just like the Ford and Carter administrations did to enable the Israeli-Egyptian peace process.

Now, on the other hand, if Hamas is not removed from power in Gaza, then this will all just be a pipe dream. And nobody else will do it but Israel, not Egypt, not the Palestinians themselves, not the US - only Israel will.

[late]

I actually think it's the opposite.

Thanks, but the confirmation of my worst fears wasn't needed.

[wat0n]

Thanks, but the confirmation of my worst fears wasn't needed.

Do you have anything intelligent at all to say about the rest of the post?

The current situation feels a lot like the 1970s. That didn't go too badly.

[late]

The current situation feels a lot like the 1970s. That didn't go too badly.

That made me snort, you weren't there.

[wat0n]

That made me snort, you weren't there.

It's not necessary to be there.

Israel made peace with Egypt, after the latter became an US ally. This peace treaty has proven durable and useful for all parties.

The three key things to do right now are:

1) Toppling Hamas from Gaza while helping the civilian populations of both Gaza and Israel as much as possible and avoiding a humanitarian crisis. Airdrops of food and medicine would be a feasible way to do this, skipping Hamas altogether. Allowing a gradual return of civilians to northern Gaza would also make sense.

2) Negotiating the postwar arrangements discreetly.

3) Avoiding an escalation that turns this into a full blown regional war (I am skeptical there will be such war).

[JohnRawls]

There is a general feeling among those that are not goofballs, that Israel will not accept peace.

That means they will soon reach Nazi levels of "civilian punishment", and once the plague gets rolling, the death toll will likely reach a 100 Palestinians dead for ONE Israeli.

Or more..

If you have an interest in foreign relations, you will have noticed there is usually considerable flexibility in relations, there has to be.

But Israel has treated us with contempt for over a generation. With Netanyahu, it's gotten worse.

There are a ton of variables, but the bottom line is that I think Israel has gone too far. I expect their war crimes will get the EU to reduce their relations, and we will likely follow their lead.

This is something I expected would happen with the next generation. You can see that the American young have little tolerance for the mass slaughter that's happening while Gaza gets turned into a moonscape. I imagine cholera won't do much to help.

So the end result will likely a growing international isolation, and implacable hatred from much of the Muslim world.

This is a political/diplomatic problem, making peace always is, unless you're talking genocide.

And that's what they've been working towards for half a century.

I wish I had something else to say, some faint ray of hope. But like us, they will win the war, and lose the peace..

You are correct on this. Although blaming everyone in Israel for that is wrong, it is mostly the radicals in few parties largest of which is Neyanyahu and his party. Netanyahu basically gaining points and making return to any peaceful negotiations impossible for him and his party to remain in power indefinitely. There would be no real opposition to his ideas and party if peace wasn't an option which now will not be after the ethnic cleansing and the ethnic cleansing before. As I said before, Hamas are animals and terrorists but Israel ain't better in its own way. Slow ethnic cleansing is still ethnic cleansing.

Peace will never happen if radicals rule both sides.

[ingliz]

2) Negotiating the postwar arrangements discreetly.

Why discreetly?

Is that code for negotiations another opportunity for Israel to fuck the Palestinians?

[wat0n]

Why discreetly?

Is that code for negotiations another opportunity for Israel to fuck the Palestinians?

Because confidence needs to be built before going public.

Because we all know Netanyahu and Abbas won't do it openly and will need to be replaced at some stage. Getting rid of Netanyahu should be easier than getting rid of Abbas, Israel just needs to go to elections for that to happen.

[Rich]

1) Toppling Hamas from Gaza

Why do you keep insisting on this terminological dishonesty? You could just about argue maybe that Saddam was toppled in in 2003, but even then it would be an unnecessary manipulation of the language. Things that can be toppled are top heavy. A one time force is applied to the top of the structure, this is sufficient to move the centre of gravity outside of the base. A relatively small amount of energy takes the structure outside of its island of stability. The structure then falls to ground under gravity.

Nothing about the removal of Hamas is remotely analogous to toppling.

[wat0n]

Why do you keep insisting on this terminological dishonesty? You could just about argue maybe that Saddam was toppled in in 2003, but even then it would be an unnecessary manipulation of the language. Things that can be toppled are top heavy. A one time forced is apply to the top of the structure, this is sufficient to move the centre of gravity outside of the base. A relatively small amount of energy takes the structure outside of its island of stability. The structure then falls to ground under gravity.

Nothing about the removal of Hamas is remotely analogous to toppling.

Really? What other term would you use to label the removal of Hamas from the government in Gaza?

[Rich]

Really? What other term would you use to label the removal of Hamas from the government in Gaza?

I wouldn't use the phrase "the removal of Hamas from government" in the first place", because Hamas can't just be removed. A more honest terminological discourse might start with control. Its not my responsibility to provide good terminology for your plan, but it is reasonable in the case of my own proposed solutions.

So I propose that Gaza should be given back to Egypt, perhaps minus a thin northern strip, as punishment for 10/7. The first stage or milestone would be to regain control of the streets roughly to the extent that the British Army controlled the streets of Northern Ireland during the troubles. I haven't followed the military conflict in Gaza closely, but it would seem that the Israeli army is still a long way from that level of control. Under my plan Israel would take control of the border with Egypt allowing those that wanted to leave Gaza, at least temporarily to be able to do so. During this process a significant part of Hamas's leadership and cadre would hopefully be killed or captured.

At some point there would almost certainly be negotiations with Hamas. This would be preferable to having to near completely destroy their military capabilities. I believe that if enough punishment was applied, that Hamas would agree to the reincorporation of Gaza into Egypt, the transfer of security to the Egyption army and police force, with the surviving leadership and hard core militants being transferred to a third country

Israel has the choice of a number of paths, including the return to something similar to the pre 10/7 status quo, but what ever happens Hamas will not be "toppled".

[wat0n]

I wouldn't use the phrase "the removal of Hamas from government" in the first place", because Hamas can't just be removed. A more honest terminological discourse might start with control. Its not my responsibility to provide good terminology for your plan, but it is reasonable in the case of my own proposed solutions.

So "stop Hamas' control over Gaza" would be a more correct terminology in your view?

I am OK with that, since in practice it means Hamas has to be removed from the government in Gaza.

So I propose that Gaza should be given back to Egypt, perhaps minus a thin northern strip, as punishment for 10/7. The first stage or milestone would be to regain control of the streets roughly to the extent that the British Army controlled the streets of Northern Ireland during the troubles. I haven't followed the military conflict in Gaza closely, but it would seem that the Israeli army is still a long way from that level of control. Under my plan Israel would take control of the border with Egypt allowing those that wanted to leave Gaza, at least temporarily to be able to do so. During this process a significant part of Hamas's leadership and cadre would hopefully be killed or captured.

At some point there would almost certainly be negotiations with Hamas. This would be preferable to having to near completely destroy their military capabilities. I believe that if enough punishment was applied, that Hamas would agree to the reincorporation of Gaza into Egypt, the transfer of security to the Egyption army and police force, with the surviving leadership and hard core militants being transferred to a third country

Israel has the choice of a number of paths, including the return to something similar to the pre 10/7 status quo, but what ever happens Hamas will not be "toppled".

Egypt doesn't want to be responsible for Gaza. It didn't want to even in 1949-1967 since, unlike Jordan in the West Bank, it did not annex Gaza and always treated it as occupied territory. Instead, Gaza could be placed under an international peacekeeping force, with soldiers from the US and its Arab allies, to allow for a phased return of the Palestinian Authority there. This would be the first stage of a broader peace process that would end in an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement, a Palestinian state with no Israeli soldiers on the ground, refugee compensation and limited return for both Arab and Jewish refugees, land swaps and the removal of some settlements, the division of Jerusalem, etc in an offer neither Israel nor Palestine would be able to refuse.

Israel has taken control of everything north of Wadi Gaza and it surrounded Khan Younis a few days ago. I do agree that, if Hamas' military wing asks for it, it should be allowed to leave into exile, disarmed, as a way to end the war. That is one way of toppling Hamas.

[late]

So "stop Hamas' control over Gaza" would be a more correct terminology in your view?

I am OK with that, since in practice it means Hamas has to be removed from the government in Gaza.



Egypt doesn't want to be responsible for Gaza. It didn't want to even in 1949-1967 since, unlike Jordan in the West Bank, it did not annex Gaza and always treated it as occupied territory. Instead, Gaza could be placed under an international peacekeeping force, with soldiers from the US and its Arab allies, to allow for a phased return of the Palestinian Authority there. This would be the first stage of a broader peace process that would end in an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement, a Palestinian state with no Israeli soldiers on the ground, refugee compensation and limited return for both Arab and Jewish refugees, land swaps and the removal of some settlements, the division of Jerusalem, etc in an offer neither Israel nor Palestine would be able to refuse.

Israel has taken control of everything north of Wadi Gaza and it surrounded Khan Younis a few days ago. I do agree that, if Hamas' military wing asks for it, it should be allowed to leave into exile, disarmed, as a way to end the war. That is one way of toppling Hamas.

They way you can stack one silly fantasy on top of another is amazing.

I mean, it's beyond absurd, but since what you do is creative fiction, it's not at all surprising..

[wat0n]

They way you can stack one silly fantasy on top of another is amazing.

I mean, it's beyond absurd, but since what you do is creative fiction, it's not at all surprising..

This seems to be what the US and its Arab allies are aiming for as well.

[Rich]

Egypt doesn't want to be responsible for Gaza. It didn't want to even in 1949-1967 since, unlike Jordan in the West Bank, it did not annex Gaza and always treated it as occupied territory.

Nasser wanted to be ruler of Palestine, as he wanted to be ruler of Syria, hence the formation of the United Arab Republic. I don't doubt he wanted to annex the Jordanian territory as well at some point. Nasser had zero interest in an independent Palestine except using it as a cover to annex Israel. Hamas is just Muslim Brotherhood the people who won the Egyptian elections. The Egyptian military is quite capable of keeping the Muslim Brotherhood suppressed in Gaza as in the rest of Egypt. When the Jihadists left various Syrian cities, this only worked because like Egypt Syria is a dictatorship capable of keeping the jihadists suppressed. The Palestine Authority is a joke. The idea that they can keep Hamas suppressed is a joke.

That is one way of toppling Hamas.

No that wouldn't be toppling.

[wat0n]

Nasser wanted to be ruler of Palestine, as he wanted to be ruler of Syria, hence the formation of the United Arab Republic. I don't doubt he wanted to annex the Jordanian territory as well at some point. Nasser had zero interest in an independent Palestine except using it as a cover to annex Israel. Hamas is just Muslim Brotherhood the people who won the Egyptian elections. The Egyptian military is quite capable of keeping the Muslim Brotherhood suppressed in Gaza as in the rest of Egypt. When the Jihadists left various Syrian cities, this only worked because like Egypt Syria is a dictatorship capable of keeping the jihadists suppressed. The Palestine Authority is a joke. The idea that they can keep Hamas suppressed is a joke.

One possibility is that Egypt wanted to keep Palestine as a vassal, but that's not the same as annexing it.

I don't see why would it be somehow impossible to suppress Hamas and keep it that way, with the proper arrangements.

No that wouldn't be toppling.

It totally would, since it governs Gaza (or did so before October 7th)

[Tailz]

I generally agree with the title of this thread, that Israel might win the war but will lose the peace. But I disagree with a lot of the substance of this discussion thread.

• Destruction of Hamas - I don't think this is a really viable option. All Israel can do is kill or capture its members. But the heavy handed methods employed by the IDF, the massive destruction of property, the death of civilians, are turning Palestinians to Hamas not away from it. In this, Israel's actions are ultimately being counter productive. In the current state of affairs, trying to destroy Hamas is akin to trying to destroy the idea of resistance against Israeli oppression. That idea is being perpetuated by Israel by its own heavy handed actions.
• Netanyahu - Will not make peace, he is wedded to resisting Palestinian rights in any form while he is also leverageing his position in government to avoid corruption charges (the Israeli Trump?). The right wing ministers in his government, even more so against Palestinian rights. With Netanyahu steering the ship of state, Israel was not find peace. But will who comes after be any better? I am doubtful, at the moment I don't think there is another Yitzhak Rabin in Israeli politics.
• Annex Gaza to Egypt - They don't want it, while Israel is committed to holding it.
• Wider Confrontation - The War in Gaza has become a scapegoat for a wider confrontation and regional conflict as proxy elements have risen up. Thus Israel again, might win in Gaza, but lose in the region.

[Skynet]

The Netanyahu government managed to unite the hole region against Israel, so I doubt Israel will win.


Is there a politician who wants to be written in history as the man who solved the Gordian Knot (Israel-Palestine).