Hafter suffers major reverse in Libya - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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There have been reports of confusion and panic among LNA commanders when Benghazi Defence Brigades fighters attacked Sidra and Ras Lanuf on Friday. There is also likely to have been considerable anger among LNA top brass that an assault, so long anticipated, should have succeeded with such apparent ease.

But later there were reports that soldiers had withdrawn towards Al-Uqaylah and even another 50 kilometres further east to the Brega export terminal. Jamal Zubia, foreign media department chief of Khalifa Ghwell’s resurrected National Salvation Government, claimed tonight that the LNA was withdrawing toward Ajdabiya.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2017/03/05/ ... -reported/

Article is long but blah blah long story short, LNA lost the main export terminals in the crescent, and is so far unable to reclaim them. To whom they lost the terminals to, exactly, is a secondary concern - there is such chaos on the other side that it's hard to even say whose allegiance is to whom at any given moment. This comes amid the backdrop of LNA being extremely slow and painful in asserting its authority in its heartland of Benghazi and Derna region.

Of course, the initial response by the Tobruk parliament so far has been to dig in heels and reject all dialogue.

But this shows a similarity between Libya and Syria. Hafter is Libya's largest warlord and has some level of international legitimacy for his faction, but that's about that. His appeal is limited and when it comes to tribes and cities which are opposed to him, there won't be much that he can do in any near future to either decisively defeat them on the battlefield or otherwise convince them to join his side. The most he can probably do is capture the export terminals and then promptly lose them after some time. If the forecasted "solution" to Syria is some kind of de-facto partition where each player will retain autonomy and influence over the central government, the same probably applies to Libya as well. But that also means agreement among the international supporters of all sides to really bring the warring parties back to the table. In Libya, I think the main international conflicting parties are Egypt and Turkey, but I'm not 100% sure.

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