Indian Election Result 2014 and aftermath - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14407084
So, results are basically in (counting is yet to finish however) and NDA (BJP+) is clearly going to form the next government. Not only that surpassing all expectations they have managed to snatch majority of seats require to form government alone, first time in India since 1984.

And all the experts were saying that era of single party governments is gone and coalition politics will dominate India.

Out of 543 seats NDA is leading in 331 with BJP alone leading in 277 and 272 is required to form the government. Communists have fallen back to 12, their historical low alongside Congress who also are at their historical low with 53.

This is the worst case scenario for India, a neoliberal party with social conservationist and communal outlook is able to form a government on their own.

Oh, well Manmohan will have to go from the PoFo banner and I will have to see Modi's face everytime I open this site.

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#14407097
Seriously, what the fuck, India. Not only did the NDA win the election, but they won it outright and can govern alone? Unbelievable. Sometimes all the predictions of all the experts and all the analysts in the world, might as well be as good as throwing dice in the alley.

I agree with you that this is the worst possible scenario for India right now. India needed the exact opposite of this result. Might as well just start playing a funeral anthem for the prospects of development over the coming period in India - when a developing economy adopts a model designed for developed economies, the only way that can end is badly.
Last edited by Rei Murasame on 16 May 2014 08:30, edited 1 time in total.
#14407100
just a small nitpick, NDA is a coalition with BJP its leader but BJP has managed to win required number of seats on their own, first time any single party has achieved this in India since 1984.

Rei wrote:Might as well just start playing a funeral anthem for the prospects of development over the coming period in India - when a developing economy adopts a model designed for developed economies, the only way that can end is badly.


Indeed. Now I hope it ends badly, people need a big shocker to come to their senses and not fall prey to big corporates backed anti intellectual propaganda campaign.

@ Killborn, please don't derail this thread, this is no place for discussing posters persona.
Last edited by fuser on 16 May 2014 08:35, edited 2 times in total.
#14407102
Killborn wrote:Why would a Japanese ultra nationalist be upset about the election of a Muslim hating Indian ultranationalist?

Because my outlook is pan-Asian and I'm not a fucking idiot, that's why.

Here:
Rei Murasame, Tue 15 Apr 2014, 1501GMT wrote:I just think that it would be impossible to do, if they keep choosing the wrong economics, though.

For example, Modi and the BJP have been fêted as being a sort of mastermind group behind the so-called "Gujarat Model" which they say is a good model, but when I compare Gujarat on key issues to other states, I have to ask myself why it is that the Indian media chooses to talk about a "Gujarat Model", rather than a "Kerala Model", or an "Orissa Model".

  • Counting from since 2004, Kerala was at #1 for providing basic facilities to rural people, whereas Gujarat was at #15.

  • Within the same time period, Orissa had the highest rate of poverty reduction in India, 24.6%. But in Gujarat there was only 8.6% poverty reduction.

  • Rate of industrial growth in Gujarat was 12.65%, while in Orissa it was 17.53%.

  • On the Human Development Index, Gujarat is at 16th, Kerala is at 1st.

  • In literacy, Gujarat is at 15th with 79.31%. Kerala is at 1st with 93.91%.

Kerala was controlled by Communist Party of India (Marxist) which leads the Left Front during all of the times that progressive policies were enacted over the past 20 years, and Orissa is presently controlled by Biju Janata Dal, a secular socialist-nationalist party which is one of the 'Janata Dal' family of parties that you can see from the list are in the Third Front.

So as a Third Positionist, I would have no problem supporting these guys if that is what has to be done. They've even done us all the favour of naming it the Third Front (you'll notice that CPI(M) is part of the Third Front and part of the Left Front).

I don't think that anyone should work with the BJP until it fixes its policies.

Yeah. So basically I refuse to endorse the BJP because their economics is wrong for India.

fuser wrote:@ Killborn, please don't derail this thread, this is no place for discussing posters persona.

He's trying to troll me, but I can legitimately answer the question, so it's no problem.
Last edited by Rei Murasame on 16 May 2014 08:37, edited 1 time in total.
#14407122
And on this basis you are claiming that India will now prepare groundwork for war against China? or that now suddenly India will be engulfed in communal riot everywhere as if all power/authority gets concentrated in ruling party at centre.

As I said your sensationalism is not rooted in reality, I am a vehement opponent of BJP/Modi and not just on internet but this sort of sensationalism hurts rather than helping in a fight against them.
#14407127
1. Border disputes were a thing last and all the years before that. And you are seriously claiming on basis of this that a war is about to come between two nuclear armed nation?

2. No. Google "Ethnic cleansing"

Once again one can criticize recent events in Assam without going all sensationalist.
#14407135
I cannot say I'm surprised at all, but then, I tend to have learned over the years to utilize the analysts and experts for a general perspective, even a bit of entertainment, but little else.

Imperfect doesn't go far enough to sum up the BJP in its current state, but if one is aggrieved at this result, the blame can be laid squarely at the feet of Singh and the Congress Party who have bungled the administration of one of the world's largest nations for decades. The people were disgusted enough with the state of their country (especially many rural communities) under successive Congress administrations that they were motivated to pool with any serious potential alternative and Modi is that alternative.

I am hoping to see positive results in the regeneration of Indian cultural life and of the place Hinduism must demand and occupy within the subcontinent. Economically, given the track record in Gujarat, it seems India will go down the same piss-poor route of neoliberalism much of the world is ensnared in, but I don't believe the tepid lackluster Congress-era consensus which has dominated Indian politics post-war/post-independence for far far too long was any serious alternative to that in the long term.
#14407149
The politicians in Bangladesh are worried because Modi has made a few comments against Bangladeshi Muslims staying illegally in India. He said that Bangladesh needs to cede territory to India to compensate for all those illegal immigrants. And he will probably come down hard against illegal Muslim immigration.
#14407151
I sure hope so. It would provide for Myanmar as well a model for dealing with Bangladesh's seemingly endless outgrowths and population explosion into other people's nations.

Will Modi really take that stand however or is tough talk on illegal Bangladeshi immigration from the BJP the equivalent of U.S. Republicans railing against illegal Mexican immigration to impress rural folk and pro-sovereignty people while doing nothing with one hand and using the other to beckon Consuela, their undocumented maid from Nogales?
#14407156
Rei Murasame wrote:I just think that it would be impossible to do, if they keep choosing the wrong economics, though.

For example, Modi and the BJP have been fêted as being a sort of mastermind group behind the so-called "Gujarat Model" which they say is a good model, but when I compare Gujarat on key issues to other states, I have to ask myself why it is that the Indian media chooses to talk about a "Gujarat Model", rather than a "Kerala Model", or an "Orissa Model".

  • Counting from since 2004, Kerala was at #1 for providing basic facilities to rural people, whereas Gujarat was at #15.

  • Within the same time period, Orissa had the highest rate of poverty reduction in India, 24.6%. But in Gujarat there was only 8.6% poverty reduction.

  • Rate of industrial growth in Gujarat was 12.65%, while in Orissa it was 17.53%.

  • On the Human Development Index, Gujarat is at 16th, Kerala is at 1st.

  • In literacy, Gujarat is at 15th with 79.31%. Kerala is at 1st with 93.91%.

Kerala was controlled by Communist Party of India (Marxist) which leads the Left Front during all of the times that progressive policies were enacted over the past 20 years, and Orissa is presently controlled by Biju Janata Dal, a secular socialist-nationalist party which is one of the 'Janata Dal' family of parties that you can see from the list are in the Third Front.

So as a Third Positionist, I would have no problem supporting these guys if that is what has to be done. They've even done us all the favour of naming it the Third Front (you'll notice that CPI(M) is part of the Third Front and part of the Left Front).

I don't think that anyone should work with the BJP until it fixes its policies.


Rei, here's an interesting article not outright excusing, but at least partially explaining the HDI gap

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politi ... 74969.html

Fourth, Gujarat’s top-down model of development keeps its social indicators relatively low compare to its above average rankings on growth parameters. The Gujarat model does not believe in doles and direct subsidies, as evidenced by its performance in the power sector – where the state runs some of the most efficient power companies. There are limited subsidies for the rural sector, but lower than in other states. Farmers get limited power at just over 60 paise per unit, but they get 24x7 power at higher, commercial rates. Net result: Gujarat runs an economically viable power sector. The state believes that efficient economic growth ultimately trickles down to all segments – but in the interim the state clearly has lower human development indicators (HDI) than it should. Among Indian states, Gujarat figures in the middle category of states – far below Kerala’s 0.790 at 0.527, and also below Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu (0.572 and 0.570), but above Karnataka (0.519). Clearly, this is where the Gujarat model of trickle down is not good enough to lift the really poor – socially and economically – out of their misery quickly. Here, Modi’s critics do have a point. Gujarat ranks 11th among 23 states in HDI . However, there is a reason why Gujarat figures lower down the HDI scale compared to other developed states like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu: it is the only big state with a huge tribal population. Gujarat’s tribal population is nearly 15 percent of the total (14.79 percent, to be exact), which is nearly twice as large as Maharashtra’s (8.87 percent) and more than twice as large as Karnataka’s (6.55 percent), or Andhra Pradesh’s (6.53 percent). Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the states with far better human development indicators than Gujarat, have barely 1 percent tribal population. It is this tribal gap that explains a large part of Gujarat’s laggard status in terms of human indicators. Surjit Bhalla points out that compared to some tribal states (like Madhya Pradesh and Odisha), Gujarat is reducing poverty faster among the scheduled tribes. Its 1999-2012 average reduction in poverty for STs was 2.4 percent, against (1.9 percent for Madhya Pradesh and Odisha, and just 0.7 percent for Rajasthan). But having a large tribal population is no excuse for relatively poor performance in HDI for a progressive state. The remedy clearly is to spice up trickle-down economics with some trickle-up direct investment in tribal areas. This is the challenge the Gujarat model has to tackle head-on in the coming years.



Sixth, Gujarat goes beyond business-friendliness. It is not actually a right-wing ideologue’s ideal state where the state runs no business. Write Fernandes: “Modi is pro- business (but) not necessarily pro-markets. He is a loud liberaliser but measured in practice. Unlike Vajpayee government’s which privatised state enterprises, Modi believes in turning them around. The return on investment in public enterprises has doubled under his tenure to seven percent, according to state audit reports. While Modi has hived off the state’s electricity utilities he has not privatised them for fear they will not care for non-creamy customers.”


I'm willing to give Modi the benefit of the doubt to at least DO something, UPA has been disastrous for the country whilst in control with a damning lack of direction. With the majority, Modi now has the ability to act - how and what he will do remains yet to be seen. If he is able to seriously tackle the rampant and all-pervasive corruption (though this is something that requires a marked culture shift, rather than legislation) through brute force with the mandate to rule that the people of India have given him, then things can only improve, as a whole, for India, irrespective of political orientation.

The fact that they won an overwhelming majority is significant - no longer should policy, and state action be marred by the need to resort to "alliance" politics.

The silver lining for the left in all of this is crippling the Gandhi political dynasty. By blasting open Congress' chokehold, the left should use the time now to build a nation-wide opposition to keep neoliberal tendencies in check whilst ousting the Congress and the Gandhis as a relevant force. The people have definitely shown their disgust for the UPA and it's horrid mix of British-era India hating liberalism (and condemnation of "India" to see what I mean - just have a read of this vitriolic, malice-laden hitpiece on Modi and political Hinduism in general from another smarmy Western sychophant and parasite, Pankaj Mishra - http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/m ... kaj-mishra, who has the gall to call out Viveknanda and liken him to a cheap demagogue) and out and out support of rampant bureaucratic public/private corruption without any sort of long-term national plan or roadwork.

Under the UPA capital flight and the "lost decade" crippled the country. Here's hoping that Modi can at least keep Indian intellectual and financial capital within the country. If he can resuscitate failing public service entities along the way, or force them to perform as they should, all the better.

Oh, and the great news? American moral hypocrisy which culminated in refusal of a Visa for Modi vis a vis the Gujarat riots is the icing on the cake. Here's hoping foreign policy wise, Modi expands trade and bilateral ties with China and is a more active participant in South East Asia in general, even if purely on an economic basis. I sincerely hope that there is no "kiss and make-up" with Washington, if Modis India can avoid the knee-jerk response to China which sends the political establishment spinning into the arms of America, then the region can only go upwards.
#14407167
FRS wrote:Economically, given the track record in Gujarat, it seems India will go down the same piss-poor route of neoliberalism much of the world is ensnared in, but I don't believe the tepid lackluster Congress-era consensus which has dominated Indian politics post-war/post-independence for far far too long was any serious alternative to that in the long term.


As usual we don't really have any "choice".

Ben wrote:Looks like the guy is closer to China which is always nice.


Probably. But Manmohan and Jiabo were very close to each other. But both are gone and I don't think that friendship can be surpassed.

Ter wrote:The politicians in Bangladesh are worried because Modi has made a few comments against Bangladeshi Muslims staying illegally in India. He said that Bangladesh needs to cede territory to India to compensate for all those illegal immigrants. And he will probably come down hard against illegal Muslim immigration.


I think he will tone it down once in actual power.

Bridgeburner wrote:I'm willing to give Modi the benefit of the doubt to at least DO something, UPA has been disastrous for the country whilst in control with a damning lack of direction. With the majority, Modi now has the ability to act - how and what he will do remains yet to be seen. If he is able to seriously tackle the rampant and all-pervasive corruption (though this is something that requires a marked culture shift, rather than legislation) through brute force with the mandate to rule that the people of India have given him, then things can only improve, as a whole, for India, irrespective of political orientation.


But the rising corruption is result of these neoliberal reforms only and BJP is further to the right than Congress in this spectrum. Its not about inherent "honesty" of a party or another i.e. just change of party will not solve it. Congress also had passed many anti corruption legislations like RTI (right to information), lokpaal bill (which Gujrat is yet to implement) etc but the general loot of public property kept on precisely because of neoliberalism and given that BJP is also just another neoliberal party, I can't see any change coming.

The fact that they won an overwhelming majority is significant - no longer should policy, and state action be marred by the need to resort to "alliance" politics.


But there is other side of it too, now country is prisoner of just one party's whim. I can think of many disasters in Indian history which could had been avoided with a coalition government.

Under the UPA capital flight and the "lost decade" crippled the country.


I don't think you can call it lost decade. Indian economy (gdp wise) was doing fine till 2010-11.
#14407188
Oh good grief. Its amazing how the Muslim loving media can twist anti terrorist resistance into race riots. From Angola to South Sudan, to Burma, to Thailand many of us have just about had our fill of these terrorists and the whinings of the cosmopolitan western Muslim loving twiteratti won't stop this uprising of the people.

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