[Saeko]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuucccckkkkk....

[Patrickov]

The consensus among my fellows and family is that this actually works, because these bottles are made of materials designed to block off particles. Looks ridiculous yes, but it works.

[Drlee]

It would work. And if the mother ship mistakes you for a crew member you might just be rescued.

[Ter]

We are officially up to 7730 confirmed cases in China, with 170 dead so far.
That keeps the case fatality rate steady at 2.2 %

For whatever it is worth:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/corona ... tions-week

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Bianco Research mapped out the geometric progression of coronavirus cases. We are on track for 100K in a week.

Jim Bianco shared some of his coronavirus research with me yesterday. I asked if he would make the article public.

Thanks to Bianco please consider Coronavirus Growth Rates and Market Reactions.

This is a guest post courtesy of Bianco Research
Summary

The growth in coronavirus infections has continued along a geometric progression for the last 12 days. Should it continue along this path, infection cases could approach 100,000 in a week.
Comments

The following charts were constructed from the daily update from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.


The blue line in the chart below shows the actual number of reported coronavirus cases stands at 4,515 as of January 27.

The orange line is a simple progression that assumes a 53% increase in the cases every day. Or, one person infects 2 to 2.5 people. So it is a simple multiplier, nothing more. This is known as R0 (R-Naught), or the infection rate. Note the chart is a log scale.

The reported number of infections perfectly track this simple multiplier. This is how viral inflections growth, along a geometric path.

If this track is not altered, the number of reported cases will top 16,000 by Friday.

Not trying to be an alarmist, but the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has jumped by more 50% to nearly 4,500 in less than 24 hours. It's possible today's stock market dip-buyers were a bit premature. https://t.co/OJ9fBMfwhX
— fred hickey (@htsfhickey) January 28, 2020

To many, such a geometric progression is alarming (see the tweet immediately above).

As the orange line shows, this type of growth rate would suggest 80,000+ infections next Monday and 138 million by February 20.

Is this growth rate possible? Over the near-term yes.


The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China offers another statistic, the number of people in quarantine suspected of having the coronavirus. As of January 27, over 44,000 are quarantined. Many of these people will unfortunately be reported as infected.

To be absolutely clear, this is NOT a prediction that 100 million people will be infected by Feb 20. Rather, this has been its growth rate for the last 12 days. A vaccine, mutation or successful quarantine/isolation could help reduce this growth rate.
Market Implications

Mongolia and North Korea have already closed their border with China. Hong Kong is restricting its border. As cases continue to emerge in Japan and outside of Asia, calls will grow for the Chinese to engage in drastic action to stop its spread.

This potentially means Chinese businesses will halt, flights will stop (see the plunge in crude oil on oversupply worries) and the global supply chain will grind to a halt. This could have enormous economic consequences for global growth.

While not overlooking the human tragedy, the markets have the difficult task of pricing an event that has a small chance of being devastating to global growth, but a more likely outcome of being contained. Yesterday’s selloff in stocks was likely a response to the fact that this virus has continued to grow at a geometric pace thus far. In trying to quantify the market impact, perhaps these charts offer one way to gauge the severity of this virus in the days ahead.

End Guest Post

Here is another link echoing Bianco's market concerns.

Coronavirus fallout could shock the global economy into recession, Stephen Roach warns https://t.co/w0X80ceuK0
— Jeff Lee (@JeffLee2020) January 29, 2020

* * *

[JohnRawls]

There are now 6000 cases worldwide.

I've already made funeral arrangements.

That is less than 0.0001% of the world population.

[Saeko]

That is less than 0.0001% of the world population.

6000 might be less than 0.0001% of the world population, but in a few months it could be 100% of the world's population.

[Patrickov]

6000 might be less than 0.0001% of the world population, but in a few months it could be 100% of the world's population.

Even with that it is unlikely the virus will kill big. Viruses that are too deadly do not have chance to spread out. Arguably this coronavirus is more contagious because it is less deadly. Of course, with a race of robbers and lazy bums living next to us I am not too confident myself either.

[JohnRawls]

6000 might be less than 0.0001% of the world population, but in a few months it could be 100% of the world's population.

This is not Ebola nor is mortality super high by most extreme standards. It is not even 10% right now. The current calculated average is 2.2% for China and 0 for the rest of the world.

[colliric]

Of course, with a race of robbers and lazy bums living next to us I am not too confident myself either.

One thing my mum is happy about.... It's not just the HK stock market and tourism industry that's in a deadly tailspin anymore. It's Chinese stocks and tourism generally. It's also temporarily slowed down HK's protests.

Now can someone please remind me what the idiots in Canberra called this particular "century" back in 2010.....

You Cantonese are going to have lead the recovery I suspect. One good thing might come from this..... A Hong Kong city-state. We can only hope.

[Atlantis]

There are recurrent reports that the Chinese cover up the real death figures by cremating people in a rush without testing for the virus.



I also found a text on reusing face masks when new masks are not available, something I asked for above, but couldn't get an answer so far:

Recommended Guidance for Extended Use and Limited Reuse of N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators in Healthcare Settings

Some municipal authorities are taking the lockdown awfully serious. We just have to hope that no fires break out in these apartments.

https://imgur.com/gallery/RGAMjH7

[Patrickov]

A Hong Kong city-state. We can only hope.

Independence before annihilation of Chinese influence is no use. Hong Kong can very much end up like Danzig Free City -- still dominated by those people who are eager to merge back.

[Patrickov]

Consensus in Hong Kong is that WHO, and many international organisations, are controlled or bribed by the corrupt and face-before-reason Chinese. Otherwise I cannot find a reason why WHO still does not declare emergency and China an epidemic region.

[Ter]

Consensus in Hong Kong is that WHO, and many international organisations, are controlled or bribed by the corrupt and face-before-reason Chinese. Otherwise I cannot find a reason why WHO still does not declare emergency and China an epidemic region.

I understand that if WHO declares a global health emergency that there are very serious economic consequences. However, what China itself has done, quarantining so many millions of its citizens, is in itself unprecedented. I wonder what a WHO declaration would signify in addition to what we have already.

I agree with @Patrickov that most probably China is exerting undue influence on WHO not to declare an emergency.

[JohnRawls]

We are officially up to 7730 confirmed cases in China, with 170 dead so far.
That keeps the case fatality rate steady at 2.2 %

For whatever it is worth:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/corona ... tions-week

That scale is fear monrgering. All viruses/diseases/epidemics follow a sigmoid curve usually. We are currently somewhere in the middle. The better question is when are we going to top out.

[Atlantis]

I understand that if WHO declares a global health emergency that there are very serious economic consequences. However, what China itself has done, quarantining so many millions of its citizens, is in itself unprecedented. I wonder what a WHO declaration would signify in addition to what we have already.

There will anyways be a substantial economic impact, no matter what the WHO does. It's more of a face saving operation so as not to damage China's image even further. I think the Chinese probably took drastic actions in order to persuade the WHO not to declare an international emergency, ie. if the Chinese manage to contain the virus in China, the WHO won't need to make a declaration.

At this point, the WHO declaration is primarily symbolic. Governments and companies will take appropriate actions irrespective of what the WHO does. However, the WHO declaration of an international emergency could provide legal protection from Chinese claims of compensation in case public or private entities were to take measures that damage Chinese economic interests, such as declaring a travel ban.

[Atlantis]

A 5th person has been infected in Germany by the same Chinese women. Apparently she flew from Shanghai to Germany on the 19th after her parents had visited her from Wuhan. She infected 5 of her colleagues during a company training on the 21st and then returned to China without showing any symptoms. She never went to Wuhan and got the virus from her parents in Shanghai.

I think the only way to contain the virus now would be a total ban on all travels between China and the rest of the world. A quarantine of 1.3 billion people.

I think the Qing emperors may have had a point when they closed the country.

[SolarCross]

That scale is fear monrgering. All viruses/diseases/epidemics follow a sigmoid curve usually. We are currently somewhere in the middle. The better question is when are we going to top out.

I expect it is correct that "all viruses" follow a sigmoid curve (well realistically a bell curve really) your assumption that we are in the "middle" of the curve is absolutely unsubstantiated and likely as premature as your ejaculations. It has only been a few weeks; the Spanish Flue which killed around 50 MILLION lasted nearly 3 years. JUST SAYING.

(dial back the smug shit eater pose, JUST SAYING)

[Rancid]

Where's skinster to tell us this is all a CIA plot?

[Patrickov]

Where's skinster to tell us this is all a CIA plot?

Seriously, no one had mentioned this BS before. I strongly oppose any attempt to stir it up.

[Drlee]

WHO Declared a global health emergency.

This is fairly significant no matter how they try to dial back the rhetoric.