China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 21 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Provision of the two UN HDI indicators other than GNP.
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#15065767
Potemkin wrote:That's a good point. The CCP could very well end up as a victim of its own success. To a large extent, that was true of the Soviet Union too, a factor which I believe contributed to its downfall. Nothing fails like success. Lol.


I think it all comes down to resilience.

Countries like the United States can have quite some resilience because the terms of administrations are fixed and there is a lot of check and balance in the System. Even during "dystopian" administrations (like the current one as claimed by some), people can try to turn things around in an agreed and orderly way.

I do not know whether China has the same resilience now.
#15065769
Atlantis wrote:Comparison of death over time for the nCoV, SARS, Swine flu and US flu deaths.

Where are all the people who said that the common flu is worse?



Although I am happy to see China and the rest of the world take this issue seriously, I cannot help think we need to take this for what it is. A high infection rate with a relatively low morality rate. I have read the death rate is way below 1% because the symptoms could be less servere in most people meaning they are unaware they have something other than the flu. Should this become a epidemic, it is not nice to think 1% of the world could die (perhaps a lot less) which includes myself and friends, but perhaps the realisation that of those most are going to be in poor health means that perhaps we shouldn't fear but take percussions anyway.
#15065813
B0ycey wrote: I have read the death rate is way below 1% because the symptoms could be less servere in most people meaning they are unaware they have something other than the flu.

That is indeed a possibility but so far they keep the provisional death rate at 2%.
There are no data to conclude anything else.

B0ycey wrote: Should this become a epidemic, it is not nice to think 1% of the world could die (perhaps a lot less) which includes myself and friends, but perhaps the realisation that of those most are going to be in poor health means that perhaps we shouldn't fear but take percussions anyway.

It is already an epidemic.
If it kills only the elderly and persons with underlying health issues that would lighten the load on pension budgets and medical costs. Nobody will declare that but I am sure there are already people thinking it.
#15065816
Ter wrote:If it kills only the elderly and persons with underlying health issues that would lighten the load on pension budgets and medical costs. Nobody will declare that but I am sure there are already people thinking it.


Sure, but I'm pretty sure the overall cost outweighs the savings in pensions and medical costs. I mean hell, entire factories have slowed to a stop.
#15065824
Rancid wrote:Sure, but I'm pretty sure the overall cost outweighs the savings in pensions and medical costs. I mean hell, entire factories have slowed to a stop.


Wait, what ?
Factories can reopen but buried people stay buried free of charge.
Old people have lots of medical expenses and they don't die at 65 like they used to so the cost of paying out pensions has risen.
#15065829
Ter wrote:That is indeed a possibility but so far they keep the provisional death rate at 2%.
There are no data to conclude anything else.


Sure, but these are figures that are reported. Keep to the established 2% if you like, but as I said if symptoms are mild in many cases this can only mean this figure are inflated - which in a morbid way is good news.

If it kills only the elderly and persons with underlying health issues that would lighten the load on pension budgets and medical costs. Nobody will declare that but I am sure there are already people thinking it.


I doubt anyone is considering "savings" in the budget except you perhaps, but ultimately most people are in good health and as such this "fear" seems over the top. When I said epidemic I meant in all corners of the world and prevalent. From reading up on this I think it is already too late. And should that be the case I for one will not panic. I will take the advice given to me and carry on.
#15065835
Ter wrote:Wait, what ?
Factories can reopen but buried people stay buried free of charge.
Old people have lots of medical expenses and they don't die at 65 like they used to so the cost of paying out pensions has risen.



You don't think there's an economic cost to entire airports and cities shutting down? Shortages of products? Companies are now working harder to diversify their supply chains away from China. You really think none of that will have a long term negative economic impact?
#15065927
About the costs, and long term damage to the economy.... we simply don't know yet.

We won't know until it stops getting worse, either.

You're just guessing, which is not a bad thing, I do it myself sometimes. But I am seeing a lot of whistling past the graveyard. There are underlying weaknesses in all the major economies, that give us good reason to be concerned.
#15065944
skinster wrote:https://twitter.com/qiaocollective/status/1226191300963246080?s=20



Wut? The US is not questioning the legitimacy of the CCP. There is no alternative to the CCP even within mainland China since they are all siting in camps or dead. At best, just the local people in China are unhappy with how the CCP handled the outbreak. But that is nothing since everyone will forget about it after the epidemic passes eventually.
#15066008
Wait, what ?
Factories can reopen but buried people stay buried free of charge.
Old people have lots of medical expenses and they don't die at 65 like they used to so the cost of paying out pensions has risen.


Come on Ter. Get a grip. If this was the US, a victim of this virus would cost far far more to treat than it would cost to pay pensions for a lifetime. Figure out the cost of two weeks in the ICU. You could easily fund a pension with that.

Snip.

Because you insist on your elderphobia let me point out a couple of things to you so you can adjust your thinking.

First of all China does not have a social security system for people who are now 65 that is anything like ours.

Are you speaking of the US? Hopefully not.

There is no saving to the government by someone dying early. Besides. It is wrongheaded to think of deaths. It is true that 80% of deaths in China are people over 60. That means that as of today there are 560 people over 60 who have died....Most had pre existing medical conditions. There are 1.5 billion people in China and you think that this death figure is significant? Air pollution in China kills 4000 people each day.

Now stay with me youngster. Forget the 560 oldsters who have died and think about the about the admitted 40,000+ cases that have required medical care so far. Care to guess what that is costing? The Median age of an infected person is 40. Now consider the 6500 who are currently in ICU's in China. Care to guess what that costs?

Now since you seem to think that I am no longer worth my keep and would be doing the government a favor by dying let me remind you that:

I work and earn a very substantial income.

I employ people.

I spend money which people your age rely upon.

I do not draw social security but will some day.

Twenty percent of people over 65 are working.

My work helps to save lives and by early intervention save costs to the health care system.

The reason that old people are expensive to our health care system is due in part to the fact that that we have limited capacity because young people, in large numbers, are not insured or covered and do not avail themselves of the health care system.

I am really getting tired of youngsters blaming older people for costing too much. That is nothing short of idiotic. Your time is coming sport. Some day you will be my age. And guess what. Even if you start now you may not be wealthy enough to support yourself without government aid of some kind. And at age 65 or 70 you are going to want to live just as much as I do. I paid my dues son. I served my country, paid my taxes, wiped your ass when you were a little boy, coached your soccer team, paid for your schools, employed your father protected your mother and generally nurtured you and others like you. When I hear bullshit like you are selling I wish we had eaten you when your bones were soft.
Last edited by Drlee on 10 Feb 2020 00:21, edited 1 time in total.
#15066009
B0ycey wrote:Sure, but these are figures that are reported. Keep to the established 2% if you like, but as I said if symptoms are mild in many cases this can only mean this figure are inflated - which in a morbid way is good news.

The number of cases are evidently deflated, but so are the number of deaths.

It seems that perhaps deaths caused by pneumonia are not reported.

Remember the news yesterday, an American and a Japanese citizen died in Wuhan. The Japanese citizen died of pneumonia and was not included in the official death stats. In the news media it was reported as a 'suspected case' (though it's actually not clear the deceased was counted as a 'suspected case' in the official stats, either).
#15066012
Drlee wrote:Come on Ter. Get a grip. If this was the US, a victim of this virus would cost far far more to treat than it would cost to pay pensions for a lifetime. Figure out the cost of two weeks in the ICU. You could easily fund a pension with that.

Snip.

Because you insist on your elderphobia let me point out a couple of things to you so you can adjust your thinking.

First of all China does not have a social security system for people who are now 65 that is anything like ours.

Are you speaking of the US? Hopefully not.


China actually does have a national pension system which is rather similar to the US.

Companies are required to pay into 5 (I think it is) benefit systems (all managed by the government) for employees, including pension, health insurance, housing savings account, unemployment, and I think one more which I'm forgetting.

Retirement age is 60 (I think for women it's 55) and that's when they are eligible to collect the national pension. It seems superficially similar to Social Security. From what I understand what China doesn't have is anything like Medicare. When you stop working, you lose health insurance (or so I've heard). (There are, I believe, private alternatives for those who can afford them.)

Ter isn't being as cynical as you think, I'm sure the idea he evokes has occurred to plenty of people. There is a 'joke' of sorts that the Chinese government wants people to smoke, for example, because it raises a lot of tax revenue (they say the cigarette taxes are enough to pay for the military), and it will cause people to die younger, and relieve the pension system.

I'm not suggesting a conspiracy to kill old people with the coronavirus, just saying Ter's remarks (which I took as a facetious) are not really so outlandish, in terms of sentiments.
#15066015
Crantag wrote:I'm not suggesting a conspiracy to kill old people with the coronavirus, just saying Ter's remarks (which I took as a facetious) are not really so outlandish, in terms of sentiments.


Thank you @Crantag !
I am still smarting from the drubbing I got from @Drlee :D

I am in Drlee's age category so it was a bit over the top I think.

Anyway, back to business:

#15066017
late wrote:About the costs, and long term damage to the economy.... we simply don't know yet.

We won't know until it stops getting worse, either.

You're just guessing, which is not a bad thing, I do it myself sometimes. But I am seeing a lot of whistling past the graveyard. There are underlying weaknesses in all the major economies, that give us good reason to be concerned.



Of course of course of course.

With respect to @Ter's comment. My point was that, the assumption that there will be a cost savings due to all the old people dying could be VERY wrong given all the other economic costs that this virus is creating for China. There is a cost to China for having to deal with this, versus not having to deal with it. You have to subtract that cost away from the savings that will happen due to so many old people dying.

In other words, the virus isn't free (economically speaking).

My guess is, it will be a net negative. (that is ,the cost to fight this virus will be larger than the money saved by not having to take care of the people that are dying) In other words, it will have been cheaper had this virus never existed. That's my guess, and I think it's very reasonable guess about this. Fighting a virus at this scale isn't free (nor cheap). Honestly, I'm baffled why anyone would think otherwise from this. The only way China could save money on this virus is if they just let it rip through the population without changing a damn thing (i.e. to not incur costs). No shutting down of cities, no shutting down of businesses, no shutting down of factories, no building of hospitals, etc. etc. etc. CLEARLY, this is not the case.

They are clearly spending money to fight this thing, and I'd be willing to put down a $500 bet that they will spend more fighting this virus, than what they will save in not having to take care of the old people that die due to this virus. This is almost a sure win for me.
#15066023
skinster wrote:https://twitter.com/qiaocollective/status/1226191300963246080?s=20


North Korea is almost the first country to close its borders.

Therefore, either North Korea is lying or the poster of this tweet is lying.

For legitimacy, no one undermines it but the Chinese government itself, because it still has a mindset of "shoot the messenger" first.

Even the above tweet is keeping this dreaded mindset.

One of the Confucius teaching is, “Gentlemen seek within themselves; 'Little people' seek in others.”

Apparently, the Chinese government, its allies, the above tweeter, as well as the member who shared this in support of China, are all 'Little people'.


JohnRawls wrote:What? The US is not questioning the legitimacy of the CCP.


They should.


JohnRawls wrote:There is no alternative to the CCP even within mainland China since they are all siting in camps or dead.


There should be.


JohnRawls wrote:At best, just the local people in China are unhappy with how the CCP handled the outbreak. But that is nothing since everyone will forget about it after the epidemic passes eventually.


No, they will not forget.
#15066186
B0ycey wrote:Although I am happy to see China and the rest of the world take this issue seriously, I cannot help think we need to take this for what it is. A high infection rate with a relatively low morality rate. I have read the death rate is way below 1% because the symptoms could be less servere in most people meaning they are unaware they have something other than the flu. Should this become a epidemic, it is not nice to think 1% of the world could die (perhaps a lot less) which includes myself and friends, but perhaps the realisation that of those most are going to be in poor health means that perhaps we shouldn't fear but take percussions anyway.


In the early days of the SARS outbreak, estimation of mortality figures varied between 1 and 50%, depending on age. That's about the degree of uncertainty we are at right now. The difference is that this virus is a lot more infectious. According to some reports, it can survive on a smooth surface outside the body for up to 9 days. Moreover, asymptomatic infections are now confirmed. It's easy to see what that means for the spread of the virus.

I think the critical figure is that more than 20% of the confirmed infections in Wuhan are "severe", which probably means they have developed pneumonia and need oxygen. People will simply die because even industrial countries don't have the medical facilities to treat so many severe cases if the virus were to infect millions or tens of millions.

Edit: while the number of confirmed infections only increase by 2097 to 42,365 cases, the number of severe cases increased from 5,505 yesterday to 6,344 today and the number of death from 906 to 1012.
Last edited by Atlantis on 10 Feb 2020 22:25, edited 1 time in total.
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